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That's a fantastic site for a cemetary!
RE: Punchbowl Crater
Thanks Tom!
I was not aware of it, but it explains that hint.
'Nobody drinks Punch from a bowl'?
Congrats Will!
I didn't know that Hawaii still had a monarch.
But at least I wasn't alone in guessing Belize.
Jon: You used ChatGPT? Clever, but I guess that 'intelligence' is more 'artificial' than we thought!
Tomaso: You and Jane musta taken a wrong turn in Albuquerque! ☺️
Tomaso!
My guess is Belize!
Specifically Ambergris Caye
1) Far away but still Home - English is official language
2) Warm enough to Swim - Caribbean Sea
3) National Highways don't connect all the Cities - On any of the Cayes (islands)
4) Nobody drinks Punch from their Bowl - Many varieties of Rum Punch, ordered by the glass
5) Royalty still exists here - Proud member of the British Commonwealth, so King Charles III
RE: My AIM Calcs
Hi 'Jake'
my feedback is that your approach inspired me to re-engineer my AIM spreadsheet. It's clearer by far than what I've been using.
Great!
A little 'inspiration' can go a long way!
My 'Inspiration'
Back in the early 'oughts' like 2002, when the Dot Com bubble burst, the values of my Classic AIM portfolio had dropped by more than 50% and I was out of cash reserve.
So I went back to Lichello's book and realized that during the entire process of building from $10k to > $Million, exactly Zero of the original shares purchased were ever sold (LIFO). An easy fact to overlook when experiencing an excess of 100x increase in overall value.
I also realized that those initial shares were simply an initial 'set point' for Portfolio Control.
So I asked myself this question: Why buy those shares if you'll never sell them?
Inspiration: Let some of your initial buy be virtual.
OK: How much of the initial buy would be virtual and how much actual (Down Payment)?
Not sure. I suppose it depends on whether the stock goes up or down after your initial purchase.
OK: That's not predictable, so how many Sales would be acceptable, and how many additional Buys are you willing to tolerate?
Not sure. I think I'd have to simulate both ends of that scenario.
OK: How will you do that?
Not sure but I know that I'd need to somehow figure out how to forward calculate Sells and Buys using Lichello's logic.
My Perspiration:
I spent many, many lunch hours with pencil, paper and a little calculator figuring it out.
And then a lot of time in Excel building My Low Down AIM workbook.
😊
You're welcome!
Any feedback on my calculation approach (Good/Bad/Suggestions)?
BTW: I'm Android on my phone and tablet and Windows for our desktops.
So if you need any beta testing, I'd be happy to oblige. Not sure how I'd upload an android app to test as I only pull apps from Google Play.
Also, any Windows based backtesting would be wonderful.
I did my 4 year compounded tallies from monthly and average annual data available here:
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/
Your comment regarding 1st 2 years and 2nd 2 years would require some additional analysis but it doesn't seem to be the norm just looking at them by year.
You can download the data and do that if you want (it goes back to 1914).
As for your other reply regarding whether I made my point in the 'discussion' I was having? Yes I did.
Actually I wanted to make 2 points:
RE: Compounded Inflation.
I forgot to mention that I'd be very interested in any observations any of you might have on the data in my previous post.
Thanks in advance.
A few weeks back I got into a 'discussion' with someone regarding inflation and presidential terms.
So I prepped the table below to support the assertion I was trying to make in that 'discussion'.
The table represents every four year chunk going back to 1937-1940 (end of great depression).
Each chunk is coincident with a single presidential term (I didn't want to muddy the waters for 2 term presidents).
I found this information very interesting and informative.
Here is the link to my source info.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/?s=CPI
Right! Scared me when I saw it on LinkedIn.
Thought it was a chemo infusion, having gone through that almost 14 years ago.
Thanks for the clarification Tom! (both there and here).
Pretty nice that at least some of the trees 'live' on in a new form.
As for the ash borers and risk of fires in northern Wisconsin, we heard a little about that when we were at the lakehouse last month.
This all reminded me of The Great Peshtigo Fire on 10/8/1871 which was the exact same date as the Great Chicago fire. It was probably more destructive, and certainly caused more fatalities as a result, but really didn't get any press because of Chicago.
Our family used to vacation in that area every summer.in Oconto County, just to the west of Peshtigo.
When my siblings and I were teenagers, our dad took us a few miles east to the Peshtigo river and showed us the farm where he was born almost exactly 50 years later (10/6/1921).
He also showed us a few tree stumps that were in the fire. It was on that day that I first heard about the Peshtigo Fire.
It's kind of a long read but this eyewitness account by a Catholic Priest is pretty horrifying.
https://digicoll.library.wisc.edu/WIReader/WER2002-0.html
Wow Tom!
Very impressive.
Even the Haiku! 😉
Wondering where that is.
Thanks for the explanation Tom!
'That's a lot of water over the dam and under the bridge!!!'
And a few Scheckel down the drain! 😉
BTW Got a 2nd consecutive Sell today on AMZN
Opened this program last year Sep.
So far LD-AIM transactions have been:
B, B, B, S, B, B, S, S, B, S, S.
Boy! Talk about being outta the loop! I had no idea you moved the Pic List here.
Either that or I simply forgot.
Regardless, I like it!
PS. When did socal change his nom de plum? (Ref: Post #1)
Thanks Tom.
7 months to go.
It is interesting Jon.
Quite similar curves.
Mine:
2023-18
2022-31
2021-55
2020-77
2019-30
Hi Tom. Very interesting.
The ratio has gone up by close to 12% since January.
2 of my relatively small cap holdings (JAKK, OSTK) are +33% and +14% since 1/3/23.
Around 10% of that just today!
AMZN is +47.5% since then.
C is basically flat around $45 / shr.
I guess individual holdings matter!
Such a good looking car Tom!
BTW: Got another Sell on PLTR which has finally woken up from the doldrums amidst all the A.I. talk lately (plus a pretty good Q!).
PLTR was doing A.I. before it was cool.
Nice 42% LIFO gain on shares purchased just a year ago.
Yup. I understand all that.
Thanks K.
Most of my trades are zero commission. Some have a very small fee.
RE: Microsells.
Thanks K.
Are those 1% Sells of sufficient size?
I tend to have min Trx Size of 9% Sell and 11% Buy
with 5% Safe
Nice Gains K
What are 'Microsells'?
2 Sells on AMZN this week and 1 on JAKK
GIEW had an AIM directed Sell on AMZN on Monday as it had been 'creeping up' over the last few weeks in anticipation of their Q1 release on Thursday (yesterday). Then they released after the close and shot straight up triggering my next Sell! Realized 16% and 20% Lifo gains respectively.
JAKK got a nice 25% Lifo gain yesterday as well.
Well certainly the numbing. But the nitrous helps one relax a little more. Especially if dentists freak you out. Not my issue, but some people need to go totally under. Like Wisdom Teeth removal. Both of our kids had that as teens, and they had to go under. Funny when they come out of it though.
Hi Tom.
Looks like that intense accumulation and peak in 2020 was likely due to the pandemic.
Lots of fear from March onward.
discomfort from that he's been in a dentist chair this afternoon for two hours having a main molar crown prepared
Do they use Nitrous Oxide (laughing gas) in the UK?
Takes the edge off if the prep work includes a root canal!
Hi Ken.
Are you still with AXAS?
Unfortunately yes. But they're close to being gone.
Hi Ken.
I see you've noticed the drop off in participation on this board. Well, that didn't happen overnight, but clearly it has dropped way off. My own personal take on it is this happened slowly over time when our favorite little book went out of print
Could be, but my note was just that the recent daily activity just kind of disappeared suddenly.
No matter. The lack of new interest in Lichello's work is understandable. So much more available with the internet, it's hard to break through. Maybe we need to advertise!
I never got into Wall Street Week.way back whenever.
Wasn't actively investing at the time.
Or any other business centered show.
Once we got cable (1984-ish), I frequented CNBC for a while but kind of soured on it. Hosts were making it all about them, or being too 'theatrical' like Jim Cramer.
But I always liked Stuart Varney. I happened to be home sick on Black Monday, 1987 and was watching him report on it. Kind of scary...
The 1987 stock market crash, or Black Monday, is known for being the largest single-day percentage decline in U.S. stock market history. On Oct. 19, the Dow fell 22.6 percent, a shocking drop of 508 points
...but 500+ point swings are pretty common nowadays +/-2%.
But not 22.6% drops! With the Dow @ 33,500 right now, that would equate to over 7500 points!
Both Varney and Maria Bartiromo are on Fox Business now and I tune them in on TV or Sirius XM almost every day. At least for a little while.
Sell on SLV this morning pre-market
No surprise given the banking situation.
Flight to Safety?
Next GTC Sell set at $25.
Highest Sell during Covid was at 27.42
And they stink to high heaven!
Hello?
Anybody there?
HELLO?
We do not miss that!
Growing up in SE WI, I remember that snowfalls like yours were not uncommon.
But seems not to happen nowadays as much as then.
You got WiFi in that cabin?
Currently 90 degrees and sunny here in DFW Metroplex.
RE: Sold 30% of my DHT
Congrats Toof.
Interesting Chart.
38 cent Dividend payable today.
How'd that happen since the regular dividend has been 2 or 4 cents?
Regardless, 'A bird in the hand...'
RE: A friend had the same procedure last year.
Hi Will.
Right! She's in much less pain after than the many months before. Especially the prior 3 months. She could hardly walk in December and January.
Her rehab is going great, but she's still not allowed to drive (I'm her Uber Driver).
She had her 2nd outpatient therapy session today, with at least 7 more weeks of that, 3 times per week and she'll be ready for daily walks, which she really wants to do.
RE: Better to buy the stock than more "stuff"
Thanks Toof.
I do both!
We are an Amazon Prime household.
- We have 7 active Echo devices (Alexa)
- We cut the cord a few years back and stream on Amazon Firesticks (which also have Alexa).
- Besides free and fast shipping, Amazon Prime allows me to back up unlimited photos at full resolution. I've been digitizing family photos for a few years now and have over 10,000 photos with more to go. Bottom line is that this service alone is worth the annual subscription.
- Of course shopping on Amazon is a breeze. Gifts for grandkids, spread out geographically is a no brainer. Plus previously hard to find items are almost always available on Amazon.
I just wish I would have bought their stock back in '99 instead of Overstock.
RE: Buy on AMZN
After the market meltdown on Tuesday, I checked my holdings to see how close they were to my Next Buy Price.
AMZN was within $1 of it, so I put in a rare GTC+Ext Buy order good until tomorrow.
About an hour ago while running an errand, I received my text notification that my Buy price was crossed.
Logged in when I got back home and sure enough, it executed an hour ago.
Added 19% to my Actual shares, and 11% to Actual+Virtual.
6% discount from the previous transaction (a Buy on 2/7).
Back to my Weed & Feed Project!
RE: Steve's trying for Haiku Poet Laureate!!
I give all the credit to 'The Wizard'
BTW: I wrote that while we were waiting for Nancy's 1st outpatient therapy session to begin.
She had bilateral knee replacement surgery 3 weeks ago yesterday. Both Knees!
She's doing great with rehab, but it is a 12 week process.
Stubborn German that she is:
"Es ist verboten, Knieprothesen zuzulassen, um mich von der Frühjahrsgärtnerei abzuhalten!"
It is forbidden to allow knee replacement to keep me from spring gardening
My guess is she'll be digging weeds by April 1st.