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Tutes have continued to sell over the last year +. What are you even talking about?
You give these guys far too much credit in justifying this stock price while ADXS has acted reckless beyond belief. Just look at the vast change in direction post Ken (a positive). This has been mismanaged to eternity. This narrative stuff is so old.
This company has 1 job and 1 job only, seal a deal and show that BP actually does want ADXS IP and is willing to pay for it. That's all. Any meaningful deal will put them back in the spotlight and bring back investors. This isn't some evil plan hatched by a consortium of tutes, its just reality.
They have 150 million cash and own it outright.
I like that we've already established some strong street cred on safety with the LM platform given AXAL. That should be huge in the long run. I hope he closes something soon. We need it.
Every passing day should be closer to a deal...that's how negotiations work... It's been years now. I just wonder if they held back deal making with HOT in order to try and sell AXAL first w/less competition. Ken better not have started from zero on HOT negotiations.
HAHA - naw, I hear you. I see this simply as a stock that's had a target on its back ever since the overblown run-up to 30 back in 2015. Shorts got ahold of it then, and never had a strong enough reason to let it go. This was supported by the ever consistent missteps by management including missed milestones, zero understanding of capital management, an absurd year in purgatory under Tony, and finally a dilution at 2$. It was a complete fall from grace, IMO. They had no answer to any attack and assumed they could tap the capital markets on whim and should be protected for whatever reason from price suppression. You don't raise 200 million, blow it in 2 years, and then expect to go back to the cookie jar without any financial development. Shorts have played this stock like a fiddle... and most tutes have sold out as a consequence.
So what number do you think this consortium of BP's decided to push this price down to before agreeing to buy? And which BP gets to ultimately make the final bid once the agreed upon suppression goal is reached? IDK, seems strange to me...
I agree with most of this. I probably should have clarified blast off as meaning more of a return back to a reasonable valuation. EV of zero is not even remotely sane.
I see either a deal or great NEO data as the only 2 things that will move this stock. AXAL to me is great, but i'm fine with the cost savings shelving it now provides. It works, but when you have NEO and HOT going into clinical, I see that as the future (maybe BP does too). To me AXAL is our POC for both those products and the LM platform in general, while also giving us a head start in understanding the safety and efficacy of it. AXAL is hardly a waste, but it's going to be what it is. There's value there, but BP hasn't bit, roll its findings into HOT and package it up and now we meld the value of the 2. Something will happen and hopefully soon...
100% accurate. All this other fluff is kinda nonsense. The execution by ADXS over the last year+ has left most people with a sour taste in their mouth. Doubt should be a natural reaction to this stock. We have far too many assets to have just sat on the sidelines and dumped 2$ shares on the market. We need Ken to seal that deal and send this flying.
This stock will blast off with one solid deal for HOT. No doubt in my mind. We need to get back on the playing field and the reality is a strong cash deal is the ONLY thing that'll accomplish that.
Agree with you there. That's the first bit of info I've read that makes it plausible HOT is actually valuable and not just smoke and mirrors. I dont care what ADXS or our past insider Noelle thinks of it, we need BP interested. Lets see a deal.
Haha. ADXS enterprise value has always been a parody. Thanks for the proper word use.
Thanks! Yep, I agree, the immune response would be the first known effect of NEO. With AXAL already proven to illicit an immune response, I would think this is a given. It's a wait and see I guess on tumor response. A couple months might be too early to tell anything meaningful. Exciting though.
Chemist, any idea on when they may be seeing their first readouts on potential effectiveness of NEO? I'm sure these patients are being scanned, but is that weekly, monthly or? Just curious if you know.
I am curious on NEON though. When will their bleeding stop too? Every week is a new low. We are approaching parody in EV very quickly. Not to mention their CASH situation is completely reasonable to see their science to fruition (and they own all of it).
It's looking less and less like a mismatch in price and more that this approach as a whole has just fallen out of grace with WS in general... or maybe its just easy pickins for shorts until NEO treatment can show some form of cash generation. The apparent discount is no longer what it once was though...
I like it, but I'm sure this has been true for awhile. Why post now? Maybe they used it to say again we're going NEO/HOT, or possibly negotiations have just started heating up... WIN
Interesting stuff. They look like they have deep ties with Amgen as well. Some of their executive team have worked there. Not to mention their CEO sold his first business (BioVex) to Amgen and was a VP of global development there for the product... hmm
I think he needed it for his narrative of cutting costs and headcounts to preserve cash. He had to do something and getting that out there on the conference call was the best way. He didn't need to announce it from a deal or negotiation standpoint. IF there was a deal he could have just waited and finalized it or called BMY/MERCK/ETC and told them we're done unless we can come to an agreement. AXAL seems to be of little interest to the market right now.
This is a fire sale IMO and I've written AXAL off as a cash savings return...
It also says to Wall Street we're a NEO play now.
I agree on VRX. Big PAPA is a solid leader. Great pick by Ackman. Strong management team overall.
Now where's our activist investor getting into the weeds and turning this ship around? ugh
HD, I'd double check that math if I were you... ;)
Every stock in the WORLD is manipulated, Blue. I have no doubt plenty sold on the pop as well. We need funding and dilution off the table - period! I think this rally was a little overblown anyways, given the news. However, it did remove a "potential" obstacle for a deal to be signed soon (assuming one is close).
Question is, do they want anything to do with HOT? Being they have NEO. Did they turn down the chance at licensing HOT back in the day when they negotiated the deal for NEO? Those two products were announced at the same time.
I am bullish on the FDA hold being lifted. I could understand the hesitancy on signing a deal for HOT while the FDA cloud was overhead. Lets hope something is near complete...
So far I like Berlin and what he's done. I think he can pull it off. I would love it if he got some advice from the likes of Edelman as well. Lets hope they're still in this (I think they are).
This part isn't touched on enough. It shows why timing and execution are a must. This is a fast moving industry and unfortunately I think some of AXAL got left in the dust because of it. We'll know soon...
I completely agree with this. They have to be strategic. I truly hope Ken is up to the task.
Plus they already have NEO, whats the rush?
They tapped the ATM in January. If they dont see this popping and no deals in near future then they very well could. Going concern problems are creeping up quickly.
Lol - im not leaving, yet.
I've also averaged down a bit. I'm just not sure how far this inability to get funding will go.
Haha - they'll say anything to fit a narrative.
I forgot to mention, there's also heavier competition now too. Ughhh
The biggest problem I have with all this is their lack of execution and absolutely zero foresight into the market and deal prospects. Had they only stuck to their timeline, which was by no means aggressive, cut unnecessary waste, streamlined operations, we'd currently be looking at, or getting very close to preliminary NEO data and potentially already had a HOT IND approved. Massive damage was done when they failed on all of it and threw out a hail-mary with the MAA, which I think was done to save face and hope for a small pop before dilution. Plus, this only looks worse when we see them being rewarded with more shares in addition to yet another reset with a new CEO and executive team. Who knows, maybe the data would have been marginal, but at least it would have been there. I'd wager that if dilution had happened under their original timeline, it wouldn't have been at 2, or now maybe even 1.
But in the end we all invest at our own risk... this is just another entry point.
Did you not just say this was going the way of NWBO and told everyone here they should have sold?
execution/management/dilution discount. Makes total sense
What an unmitigated disaster this company has been from an execution and financial stewardship standpoint. They have not been preemptive on anything until its too late. Zero foresight. They are looking to run this thing till its empty. Its beyond reckless.
They should just shelve HOT and cut the workforce until they can come up with funding for it. NEO needs to deliver.
These incompetent leaders just run companies into the ground all the while robbing from the piggy bank with inflated salaries and options. Then, when nothing is left they say oh well, we tried. ROSG was ran till the last drop then dumped.... for 10 million! Who knows, maybe they could have gotten a cool 100 for it had they faced reality earlier.
I'm exhausted. lol. I'm ready for them to sell this dang thing.
Agree. I think it was in part to a lack of CMO in why they potentially didn't dig deeper, IMO.
Likewise, they paid vast amounts of money to supposed "consultants" for this filing to happen. I have to wonder what kind of sage advice they had to offer...
I do. I have to admit I feel a little bit duped. The board is the board though and I take very little of it as gospel. However, some of the level headed people here did say they knew an AXAL approval was going to be unprecedented given the data set. I'm constantly amazed at how the market has completely nailed this stock perfectly. They banked on dilution, AXAL/EMA failure, no deals, which have all been true (for now at least).
I do have to wonder though what Petit and the executive team were thinking all along with the filing. Was it just decided it was going to happen by Dan and that was final and they refused to reevaluate? Or are we dealing with people that just don't get it? Was it to hopefully get a stock spike for fund raising? The lack of a CMO for so long had been telling to me...
Bottom line, HOT needs to produce or I'd be fine with them shelving that as well until we have the necessary funds to pick it back up. This could be a NEO/AMGN play only.
Well, I know one thing is for certain, dilution at these levels is suicide. Now that the reality of AXAL is settling in and EMA decision is gone.... What's the true value of HOT? NO one seems to know. Especially at these early stages.
All the signs of perceived strength coming from the company over the last year i.e. continued hiring, filing MAA, TL the negotiator, deal talks etc. were all a charade. I truly hope we can trust in ADXS that HOT is as valuable as they say, but given all that has happened my trust is starting to wane..
But still hoping for the best.
Best to you, hartvalue! I don't blame you one bit. This has been unbelievably difficult to withstand.
Remember, you can always get back in if things finally turn around!
Good luck in the future.
Hardly evidence of anything. The BOD have $100k+ yearly retainer fees in addition to options. They have made a fortune off this company already. Ken has a base pay of over $500k a year. The cynical side of me sees it as a small price to pay for acting like they have skin in the game and maybe propping up the share price slightly.
At least Ken isn't trying to spin this for anything other than what it is. He's been willing to make "tough" decisions when others haven't. I have to admit it's refreshing for a change...