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Thank you kindly, you are quite welcome.
Thats a good thing, had to come after the others did it, Ameritrade hasn't the best fills but some people (many) would have pulled. I have accts in both for different plays so I am a happy man as we all are I expect.
I have some pices of pennies in Ameritrade that sold all but 100K shares etc sub pennies, didn't want them RS on me and have to pay $38 and didn't want to buy anymore. So look out PACV people etc etc. LOL.
Those things used to be so good buy them set the sells and forget about them until your account dinged and wen t green.
Lottery tickets.
Your welcome, my friend.
No need to cross fingers its solid
Its a go up and stay up kind a deal.
Nice tomorrow the landscape changes and things will be seen in an entirely different light.
As always if you add or start a position, bid sit it. There will be a flipper, they cannot help themselves.
Nothing really but good thing to know going forward, I mean it's cool and all but evidently October 6th Justice brand will start selling in 10 of Macy's higher volume showcase stores, branding/signage etc.
Ones that are known....
State Street, Chicago
South Coast Plaza, CA
Valley Fair, CA
Honolulu, HI
and 6 other locations in NY, NJ and FL
Investor spoke to dept. manager at South Coast Plaza, CA about it.
I have no opinion one way or another on the company, just found the statement odd.
Peace out.
It is more the NG price that has been mucked with than oil, but agree its WTI too, shorts just go sector wide and Montage is such an easy target. Being that it was ECR not as large a company and had several hurdles to pass to get to this point it is no wonder.
Slowly I believe we are getting more solid interest, many players in the game would never have even messed with ECR and it took a while for MR to get on many radar screens.
One thing it has not failed to do is increase revenues, and beat consensus estimate again and again and again over a 2 year period.
Now cash flow positive and with such a high book value and the ability to now start to meaningfully take out debt things should change.
I think I mentioned before having 9 analysts I believe now covering the stock and will actively participate in the CC's from here out will be a plus.
On fintel MR is still listed as Mindray Medical and cannot find any tute ownership etc, on Nasdaq site there is very limited, no short interest etc. This just adds to the hiccups of getting people to join the party, but little by little they are and the analysts and some nice write ups should change that.
There is this one gal though that keeps the PT at $5 haven't a clue why, maybe she has difficulty with arithmetic so many do. I am not a fan of the firm she is with as I have ever found them to be straight shooters, but, that's just my personal feelings rightly or wrongly.
Two top execs added in 10 range for 260K shares, so I feel all mine at the knuckle dragging short pushed bottom are gifts that I will be opening at Xmas time with so many others.
Lets just see as the next ER is released, til then even though I am deep already I will always be a bid sitting fool at the lows.
May EPS March 1.16 May .70 Aug .41 and still even making good money with low commodity prices its trading here? When it was darn near 3 I was like are they going to try and push it under what they will make in the year? Lower capex and increased production should have numbers back up to .60-.70 EPS even with commodity prices being manipulated by large players with agenda's (Soros and large $$ Green energy pumpers/hypers IMHO) we shall see.
Peace out.
Exactly, the inventory $$ value is what was paid for it, now I understand closing down etc especially 500 stores at the end of the year and keeping them running through that Q is costly as it is a money losing concern and the first 100 stores closed in the summer did not have such a favorable time or conditions/time to sell in so their 1/6 of the inventory $15-20 mil for arguments sake will not have such good margins but still that money does help with closing costs, which are no small matter.
But the 500 stores closing in December (if we get confirmation that's how it went) with for arguments sake $75-80 mil in inventory that will be clearing out said inventory under the best circumstance, A) the Black Friday to After Xmas time period where you have a captive audience the stores are slammed, every go by a mall during these times especially Friday-Sunday and see a parking space, it is literally the only time one sees the huge parking lots of malls full.
Now it will be costly IMHO but with concessions and the ability to plan an exit and execute it so $75 mil in inventory that will not be left over excuse me if I do not agree with naysayers that the apocalypse is coming. Last Q lost 30+ mil and was left with 95 million in inventory, selling through the holiday season and ending up with no inventory that gets to be liquidated, where are these huge losses going to come from?
Retail people and those love to look at the most minute detail to find where there may be a 1.137% leak that they can point to from some COG SGO PDQ blah blah blah but was it staring them in the face black and white they ignore. Trips me out, people cannot see the forest for the trees. I get that those things matter but when your spouting thee potential huge losses, I ask from where? Why is that 80 mil in goods gonna be sold at Xmas time at no profit? Hell if it ended up half price thats 40 mil they lost less than 40 mil last Q and had the inventory left over? Now stores will be closed and all the inventory will be turned into cash, yes just like Francesca's they are blowing supposed doomsday scenarios,and like that it started with the bog impairment charges and write down losses that aren't cash losses and debts.
Its just a constant oh my god stores are closing, oh my god they are selling money losing businesses to take away debt that they incurred when buying them, oh my god they will only do 3.5 billion in revenues after, yeah but they forget to say the losses will be gone, and they will instead of losing a hundred million they will be making a hundred million going forward. $3.5 billion + business that's making money hand over fist will be left and that's a bad thing? Deserves to be under a buck let alone under $3-4 bizarre the nonsense they come up with during the retail shakeout once a decade. been waiting 20 years for dot com's to take out brick and mortar retail, check retail store numbers then and now they have gone up. Nearly 1.3 million in the US and they are screaming the city is burning because there may be 75K closings by 5-6 years from now, they neglect to say with new business chains etc there may be 75K to take their place in that time frame. As is what usually happens, been to this dance 2 times already 1999 and 2009 still waiting for that forest fire to burn out brick and tarot.
Yeah bring ER show me Dress barn leases good with exits and some concessions, show mu lane Bryant and please lord show me those 17 mil shares just shrunk the float which going forward will raise the earnings per share just by the very nature of the shares being shrunk by 17 million shares.
Then lace lace up. Hell show me just the Dress Barn thing is sorted, get out of that will no losses, and lose a 650 money losing chain from the balance sheet eating up 30-40 mil a Q from Ann Inc.'s etc's profits?
Its a footrace, trading at a quarter screaming the baby dying what shall we do? Hand wringers the lot of them.
Peace out.
Some things I was looking at for Ascena going forward.
Already showed Ann Taylor/Loft?Justice for first 9 months this year and what they will have as a company going forward with Dress Barn closing and selling Lane Bryant and Catherine's to someone who can take the time to streamline it who will be able to just focus on them.
Taylor/Loft YoY they are 87 million dollars ahead in revenues with 44.8 million in profits at 9 months in for the Fashion Line with 36 stores less than last year. Sold Maurice's will start getting 49% of profits this Q and going forward and share in the sale after it is done with streamlining and profit build. Justice turned around Revenues virtually flat down $2 million in revenues with 63 less stores and growing stronger by the month.
Look at what they are losing with closing of Dress barn and sale of plus fashion going forward.
Three Months Ended MAY 4th 2019
Value Fashion 177.3 mil
Plus Fashion 311.5 mil
Operating loss Three Months Ended May 4th 2019
Value Fashion (43.1) mil
Plus Fashion (27.7) mil
Q before (32) and (19) mil
Gonna be a whole new ball game
Now getting rid of Dress barn everyone also does not take into account Dress Barn inventory they will get decent chunk from that after expenses etc and thats a large amount of inventory.
8. Inventories
Inventories substantially consist of finished goods merchandise. Inventory by segment is set forth below
Value Fashion $94.7 million
Value Fashion segment – consists of the specialty retail, outlet and direct channel operations of the dressbarn brand. (From last 10Q as Maurice's was left out due to sale)
Now I know will be costs etc but closing down during holiday shopping season from Black Friday to after Xmas day sales for their total its gone time, that has to be the best time to close 500 stores will get far more than just closing a store out of the blue and having the liquidation now sale going out of business. And closing sales on the internet Ecommerce site? They will get far more than people think for that 95 million in inventory their cost.
When people look for the sales, captive audience. That is a lot of inventory and that is their cost, that they will sell at a profit may not be great margins but still, people not seeing the entire picture IMHO. If they got deal with landlords with concessions they can damn near IMHO get buy losing hardly anything comparatively. No one seeing bright side anywhere just worst case scenario which is out of question after hearing CC's from landlords and statements from Ascena. I don't get the gloom of naysayers I really don't.
I think people see headlines and see what they want to see, and ignore what they don't. Glass half empty types. With all that money and concessions they could come out making money albeit small no doubt. But certainly not $100-200 million dollars or even 25 million.
Yeah I just don't get it, they will have cut everything loose that cost them adding cash a lot and keeping Maurice's 49% going forward with $3.5 bil + in profitable sales and its a quarter?
Don't even get me started about if they got those 17 mil shares to shrink OS in the Mane Sale deal. Those three things happen better be laced up kids.
Peace out.
Right on right on, gonna post two charts end of day want to see if anyone can figure them out, I mean kind of understand them, but, hand to god, they look eerily similar 2 days out, in a very good way, want others to give there opinion.
Topped off some more today rounded off count with earlier, then had lotto bids in and a jungle block came at the bid market sell from a wild short got 41K more. It is wild I mean 2 days out they still pushing just like the other one, then it was like an energizer bunny, cannot understand the rational, but hey, makes me lots of zeros so who gives a ..... onward kids, knock yourself out.
They have us trading in a channel it will be a favorite of traders no doubt as new floors laid and next legs up taken as we move forward the rest of 2019 into 2020. Just keeping an eye on future outlook as it is in my opinion one of the best way to view a stocks future.
With Charming Charlies already having closed 261 stores as of the end of August and Forever 21 having already closed dozens of stores this past summer has now filed BK and is closing up to 178 throughout the U.S.
As Francesca's has already turned its business around and will continue to do so having 500 less competitor stores to compete with this coming holiday season with sales in the US expected to be up 4-5% this year.
One other thing to look at is box retailers although not direct competitors they do sell to a large group of Francesca's demographic in pert. No one just shops at one store but with less competitors out there this holiday season for 4-5% more dollars this year makes the outlook even better.
Francesca's won't get all their business or even the majority, but, they will gain some of their business 5-10% no doubt depending on the store, location and demographics. 5-10% is good and 5-10% of a further 4-5% spent this year is even better.
With Francesca's outlook after the turnaround by management showed in the last Q will be further shown in the coming Q and so on and so on helped by declining competitors and increasing retail sales numbers which have been growing at a steady clip since April.
At first news report stated that Forever 21 would just be closing its international stores and were unsure of US operations, the latest reports of 178 stores closing in the US is a welcome surprise to what was already going to be a great 2019/2020 season. Looking forward to watching it all unfold.
I chose this link on Forever 21's store closures to show people why I refer to the retail shakeout in 1998/1999 and its similarities and although they blamed it on the latest craze in the markets analysts were trying to pump the dot coms (today its AMZN taking over brick and mortar dead) what followed was a crazy banging powerful year and a half long bull market till the dot coms burst when it was realized it was all hype (as most investing fads are) and reality set in. The same will happen in the next 18 months until all the Teslas and Beyond Meat's Weed stocks etc when it is realized that they won't make a profit (Tesla's Beyond Meat's Green Energy) and the will make some profit but nowhere near what was expected as the governments in these liberal bastions that created the markets take more than their fair share of the pie.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-good-news-is-the-same-as-the-bad-news-this-market-looks-just-like-1998-2019-09-30
In that 18 months you will see retail storm back for two reasons, one the shakeout then as now was needed over expansion and the shakeout of the old dogs that need to be put to bed once and for all, JCPenny Sears etc. Sure like 20 years ago was blamed on the pump of the the past few years. Tesla,Weed, AMZN et al when these fail there will be what they call the flight to value, stocks in companies that actually make $$.
Not hyped up nonsense happens every 8-10 years like clockwork since the nifty fifty of the 70's. IMO over the next year people should do serious DD on these value sectors, look up past markets and news of the day is easy now with the internet, search value stock 1999 etc or flight to value find out what those sectors are and over the next 12 months get yourself into those type companies at their multi year lows or as close as youn to them.
Not all mind you, once you find the sector then you have to do some time searching and digging and reading the 10Q's for multiple quarters read every page, every note use Invstopedia to help with things you don't understand they usually have videos, short one 2-4 minutes that will explain what you are searching for, be it "write downs" certain gains losses,whatever you don't understand in a filing type what the name of the note and search it and learn it. Then when you find the good ones set your alerts and be on watch to get cash flow, cash rich, low/no debt value sector stocks, IMHO.
Just paying forward advice I learned from some old dogs back in the day that were helpful enough to pass on the info to young guy willing to learn. You can spend the time doing DD and thinking/planning now rather than with a doubt, spending 10X the amount of time in the future thinking about what you should have done. History repeats itself over and over and over again.
90% of you traders there's no help or advice, except to get your resumes ready, every tr and momo a stagnant market that lasts for 2-4 years?
Peace out.
Oh yeah, man what a week I am having congrats Lazarus, we knew all along we knew something was here with this sleeper by the Hudson.
Congrats.
Wicked close today @.2641 after huge accumulation all day, shorts just kept loading wall @.25 with AON and hidden orders got her to break then they punched it down with flippers help and then .26 was loading zone til someone threw 2 market sell short blocks for over 500K shares took her down to .255 and it was on then like a Mike Tyson/Rocky Marciano fight.
Pressure just too much from here out, IMHO the Thursday the books get opened and all will come to light.
Peace out.
Congratulations everyone seems so long ago I told you last summer to, go out and smell the fresh air, take your other half out to dinner have a nice evening and weekend and enjoy it......."because you did good kid" something my mother used to say to me when she was proud, and you did, congratulations to all of you.
You did good!
Game isn't over yet, its just the 4th inning we already won just have to see the final score.
Peace out.
Yeah judging from market response..... the big kid market ..... I would say it was to do with buy sell and th company was involved as they are the only ones that do not have to file for such a transaction as the buyer.
BREAKING DOWN Open-Market Transaction
This is simply an order placed by an insider to buy or sell shares according to the rules and regulations set out by the SEC. The importance of an open market order is that the insider is voluntarily buying or selling shares at or close to the market price.
In a separate context, an open-market transaction can refer to a deal conducted at arm’s length between two parties. This usage is particularly related to the sale or merger of a business interest or assets.
That's my opinion after looking into everything, the seller, business, their history, the sales of Plush Fashion as reported by Bloomberg the late ER PR and date of it seems to me personally was for this Thursday to give time for all that needed to happen before ER to be done. etc etc
And that is just my feeling weighing everything.
Absolutely nothing else makes sense with no other filing as to who bought those shares in that transaction.
Well the open says a lot, the larger players in the market do not see anything negative, IMHO they like the rest of us are wondering.
One thins John I was thinking is okay, part of a deal Golden sells shares open market company just so happens to buy the shares on the open market and they don't show up. As you know "open market" isn't always like we think open market.
Second do you know who does "not" have to report buying shares?
The company as they have a stock repurchase program to purchase up to $181 million shares.
Just spitballing.
Peace out.
Yeah, because I have seen open market before in these types of instances and it doesn't always mean what it says with the big fellas.
Have a look at the amendments from then they got the shares originally and their role going forward as well buying companies through leverage is what Golden does, they aren't sell/buy anything on the open market firm. .
You know these cats they walk that shadowy line in regards to what they do how it is reported etc thats why they have fleets of lawyers, that was one reason I started even more leaning towards the deal to buy Lane Bryant/Catherine's as this was filed late Friday night so would not be on radar till this morning, then I expected soon after to see who bought them by way of another filing.
Like I said hate when the big kids play in the private playground.
Someone got those shares and not by way of open market as we see open market, something is afoot.
Any number of firms or the company could have would have bought the shares, or did, big kids.......secrets.
I saw that as well, but found it confusing. Volume, price can you give your opinions?
Shares originally loaned out to the said short now? I get lost in all the back room/behind the scenes things. Open market can ambiguous somewhat.
Thanks
Just spitballing here, trying to figure out what is going on in the big kids playground.
Golden came in with the Ann inc. merger in 2015
It was after the 2 for 1 split so did not gain from that.
Company in talks to sell Lane Bryant/Catherine's
PR was late for ER all the while Bloomberg reporting deal in works for Lane Bryant and Catherine's
PR comes out late Monday evening for earnings release following Thursday.
Golden exchanges/sells shares Wednesday/Thursday/Friday has to be filed/reported max 2 days?
Golden which buys and sells companies maybe made a deal to purchase Lane Bryant/Catherine's?
Did company take his shares in deal to retire them and thus kill 2 birds with one stone, reduces OS by 9%, making deal easier, more attractive to Golden?
I am dying to know, felt deal was done with Lane Bryant/Catherine's as you all know when PR for earnings delayed for a week then put out late Monday evening. Last week lawyers at work getting their part deal done, contracts, etc.
We shall see, makes the mind wander, only thing I can think of at the moment still going to dig, see that Ann Inc merger and what/how was prior how Golden got a piece of Ann Inc. follow the bread crumbs.
Peace out
GGC PUBLIC EQUITIES OPPORTUNITIES filed 13D sold position to someone.
I wonder who they sold those too, they weren't sold on the market was filed Friday after close so had to happen Wed-Friday last week, which is when deal happened? What evening was the PR put out for earnings?
Should be another filing coming as they are a firm that buys/sells large stakes to/from other firms to purchase entire companies Neustar Bob Evans Restaurants Red Lobster I wonder if they were involved in Lane Bryant/Catherine's talks?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Gate_Capital
They came in with Ann Inc. merger I believe.
Big kids at play would love to know what is going on. Part of exchange in deal to buy Lane Bryant/Catherine's? Interesting.
Ann Taylor and Loft through the last 2 years of the change for growth strategy laid out by management in late 2017 Just like I laid out Justice so you can see the slimming down, cutting costs closing under-performing stores and those in over-saturated areas, gives look along with Justice of the lean company that will be there after Lane Bryant Catherine's sale.
Oh and with an extra $500-600 million to boot.
Ann Taylor and Loft
Q1 2018
1001 stores $555.1 mil
Q1 2019
975 stores $596.0 mil
Q2 2018
988 stores $609.6 mil
6 months...$1,164.7 bil
Q2 2019
980 stores $638.9 mil Q2 and beginning Q3 hit retail sector hardest
6 months...$1,234.9 bil
Q3 2018
980 stores $532.7 mil
9 months...$1,697.4 bil
Q3 2019
964 stores $549.5 mil
9 months...$1,784.4 bil
10K 2018
976 stores $2,317.8 bil
10K 2019
??
So YoY they are 87 million dollars ahead in revenues with 44.8 million in profits at 9 months in for the Fashion Line and they wonder why I look at them with two heads. Sold Maurice's will start getting 49% of profits this Q and going forward and share in the sale after it is done with streamlining and profit build. Justice turned around Revenues virtually flat down $2 million in revenues with 63 less stores and growing stronger by the month.
Closing Dress Barns at a steady clip to have all closed during the best Q there is for sales in a year estimated to have 4-5% higher sales YoY no BK looming with Lane Bryant/Catherine's/Cacique sale ahead and they have the temerity to say it's worth a quarter? Okay, well alrighty then, you go with that, tick tock.
Comp sales WTF does that have to do with anything, less stores lower costs making more revenues and profit, $300 million in hand debt interest payment paid in advance for next 12 months and a stock buyback program authorized to buy back enough in dollar value to buy the market cap 3 1/2 times over with two of the largest insider holders on the board and they say it will RS? Everything else at this price is meaningless to me. Talk to the hand.
That's why I say, number crunchers, at this point they should stay in their office in the basement. Will come get them when it's time.
Justice when I got on the same page with others that this was the right choice to keep being that Lane Bryant, Catherine's, Casique needed to much hands on focus and actually much time put into coming up with the right plan going forward I thought okay let me look into Justice deeper. Now Justice was never my favorite because I didn't like the fact there were to many stores being over-saturated in many areas, in the wrong areas of the country and needed a much stronger push to online operation/brand/presence. I don't feel this way with 15+ year old people. Before that most of the time its the parent's that make the choices, many buying clothes without even asking their children's opinion and the fact that kids clothes fit better for the most part than adults so returns, the wanting to try on 10 outfits before deciding on one is put to rest.
So looking back through the last 7 quarterly filings you could see a pattern of how it was turning, and managements discussions saying as much before the following Q's showed it actually happening. Then with the results and management and results showing the improvement I then was on board with the rest. The company actually has been very good at identifying the shift in 2016/2017 and starting in 2017 start to put things into place with their Change for Growth program as is so painfully obvious in one aspect in that they paid 2019 to Nov 2020 interest payments on their debt and their early closing talks for Dress Barn for landlords. Making the process and outcome much more beneficial for both.
This from a CC by Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) – August 1, 2019
“We anticipate that Dress Barn will close all their stores at the end of the year, outside of normal lease expirations. We currently have 22 Dressbarn stores, including the Roz & Ali concept in our consolidated portfolio with approximately 177,000 square feet and average sales of only $140 per square foot.”
“We have a settlement agreement with Dress Barn that the stores will remain open until December 31. They will be included in 2019 occupancy. I just want to mention that they have been cooperative and professional in the process. We have had probably 6, 7 months of advanced notice and are in the process of filling some of the vacant space with much more productive tenants going forward."
Regency Centers (REG) – August 2, 2019
“We’re happy to get our space back. We’ve been watching obviously both of them [Dressbarn and GNC] for a while, and we really, like I said, I think we’ve got an opportunity to upgrade our merchandising at the end of the day.”
There are others I just grabbed those quick as they were readily available, just because people do not know what is going on and things are being fed to media by those who want, need the stock to drop does not mean all is bad, it means they can't/aren't/won't talk about it.
Ascena will come out of this entirely in my opinion looking like the professional Fortune 500 company they are. Its misleading stories fed to the press and spread on social and the fear unknown that has helped hedge funds etc run the price down under $1-2 in the first place.
But the info is out there if one just spends the time looking for it in other companies (landlords) CC's/filings. One also must be a non the world is coming to and end placard holder as well and use some common sense.
Q1 2018
894 stores $259.1 mil
Q1 2019
845 stores $266.0 mil
Q2 2018
862 stores $329.6 mil
6 months...$588.7 mil
Q2 2019
833 stores $326.7 Q2 and beginning Q3 hit retail sector hardest
6 months...$592.7 mil
Q3 2018
855 stores $233.8 mil
9 months...$822.5 mil
Q3 2019
831 stores $227.4 mil
9 months...$820.1
10K 2018
847 stores $1.1 billion
10K 2019
??
So I admit I was on the wrong side of the argument with others, Justice after thinning out the herd getting rid of stores in over-saturated areas and under-performers by 63 stores are on track despite end of Q2 beginning of Q3 being bad for the retail sector are only down 2.4 million in revenue as of the end of Q3. They will I believe as do the others that the full year will end higher YoY due to CEO statement during the CC
"That said, our transformation program delivered significant expense reductions, and we were pleased to see improved comp sales performance exiting the third quarter. This momentum has continued into our fourth quarter with quarter-to-date comp sales up mid-single digits."
US retail sales numbers from the government show retail sales as it shows in Ascenas from April strong growth and continues strong.
Retail sales every month has done nothing but climb since it turned in April as anyone can tell the retail sector as a whole sales are up except for those hat just refuse to die, like the the boxes on the corner.
Also in the quarter for Justice, there were 12 states that had tax free holidays for the purchases for back to school purchase weekends prior to Q3 ending.
With retail sales surging each month, estimates for holiday season to be one trillion dollars up 4-5% good retail brands, will do good.
Now overall because of Dress barn closing stores and continuing its descent and the continued struggles with Catherine's in general lower margins and comps, yes. But those coming to an end in Dress Barns case 100+ stores this summer already, glad to lose bad revenues and the costs/losses that go along with them.
Have to focus on the cream and what will be left not what is leaving the
the show. novice trader and a few other said they never thought about investing in retail, I don't as a rule, I do play the earnings as retail is generally a walk through the hills during the year. You have your valleys in between earnings and your peaks and you can make a solid small % in between them buying the low selling the highs and you are in in case of something good like a sale or an acquisition.
But every 8-10 years I find 1-2 then I am in till we get to the valley's as that's where the big gains are. One thing that makes it so boring and maniacal, some would call methodical. The overwhelming majority of people that invest, discuss or play them are number cruncher's and they are kind of like a nagging wife.
Nothing is every good enough, there is always a but, you didn't do this in retails case oh but this number is off, and these numbers show a decline and that, what about that, and this bunch of shit and that bunch of shit. Gives me a headache and it does mean something but a very little something, just like the trash you want to take out in the morning after you got done painting the house and bitch won't let you rest, its never good enough.
Those people drive me crazy. I like the bottom after the wipe out and find the ones that shouldn't have been there in the first place, down yes, the sector was and there were problems but laying in the mud getting pissed on seriously? And then the important things happen, closing dead stores, doing the same rev with 50 less stores, selling losing brands etc.
But then they got, but comp down, and SGO on the flip side of COG and this "could" happen and this "could happen" all the while ignoring the obvious and when its trading for pennies on the dollar I could care less about the minutia as it doesn't matter at this price point.
What matters is getting out of Dress Barn good? Yes okay check there is a .50 SP, so BK is off the table now then right? Okay that sent them into a .50 drop so where is that increase? After dress Barn is gone and those huge losses are gone the streamlined is going to be coming out of a huge holiday 1 trillion dollar sale period up 4-5% give me my folding money take these quarters back.
Shorts traders will try and play with it, but, game is over. And announce a Lane Bryant Catherine's sale, this bitch is gone. Show the company used some money to buy back 10% of the OS for pennies, this bitch is gone. All that minutia number cruncher insignificant at this point BS means nothing at this stage of the game, when the price gets back up to where it should be that's when tdeck say see ya till the dip in the valley.
Because yes, long term in retail is boring and frustrating and really nothing to get excited about unless you are getting some divs and even then blah blah blah, but 8-10 years or so its party time I am getting paid time. On one or two that are deserving. Others may come back too, but they weren't crucified and their climb back will be boring.
This one was crucified and like Christ....well you know happened on the third day, in retail come backs its on the third Q that they usually are back to their old self March.
Peace out.
Gonna do the same thing with Ann Taylor and Loft as I did with Justice show the 2 year change in stores etc from their reformation of the brands, that Change for Growth thing they started in late 2017 and kicked into high gear Q1 2018 can see the lean brands and what we will be left with on a Lane Bryant/Catherine's sale. I think will be the same as Justice above only better, I am personally looking for 2020 to be 3.5 billion dollar revenue company making dollars with the diamonds after the paste is sold/closed with that 49" of Maurice's profits the cherry on top.
Peace out.
Okay the Lane Bryant/Catherine's decision for which line to sell I will admit I was on the side of selling Justice where as the others were leaning towards Lane Bryant and Catherine's and after seeing their reasoning I was too was on the side that Jane Bryant and Catherine's were the obvious choice. First after closing many poor performing stores in over saturated markets and markets that had turned south with continuing strong this past Q for Justice and their continuation into the beginning of the 4th Q it was the obvious choice to keep. Where as Catherine's is just too much a drag on the plus fashion line even with the success of Casique Catherine's just continued to pull plus fashion down. Now with focus by someone who has no other lines in their bag to deal with yes probably something can be done for a new buyer many ways to go but it will definitely take some dedicated effort and focus and time, which Ascena obviously hasn't the ability to do at the moment.
So going forward after the Dress barns are closed and Lane Bryant/Catherine's is sold what will Ascena look like. Well a lean mean machine, they will have their Premium fashion with 964 Ann Taylor's after closing 2 under-performers in the last Q and opening 1. Over the last 12 months they closed 16 under performers going from 980 stores to 964 during that same time Loft closed 13 under-performers last Q and 78 over all which was good as the line was over-saturated in some areas to the extreme. The proof is in the pudding with 94 under-performers closed in premium fashion their comp sales were up 5% for the Q and revenues YoY for the line as follows
Premium Fashion
2019 $549.5 million
2018 $532.7 million
Obviously with near fewer 100 stores, saving one can only guess on labor, leases, electric, licenses etc. they did 17 million more in revenues. Obviously a winner going forward which without the losers will be much better, no? Going forward in the conference call the CEO had this to say.
"That said, our transformation program delivered significant expense reductions, and we were pleased to see improved comp sales performance exiting the third quarter. This momentum has continued into our fourth quarter with quarter-to-date comp sales up mid-single digits."
So it seems it continued and if it is anything like the rest of retail which has been on a steady incline since April and continue with the holiday season estimates being a Trillion dollars in sales being up 5% YoY. And I need not remind anyone in retail, we have had a bit of a cleansing of the landscape as it were, with as the media and its never ending Retail Apocalypse/Armageddon there are 1000's of stores missing from the landscape to share in those higher by 5% estimated sales this holiday season, just saying the ones that trimmed down set them selves up going forward should be handsomely rewarded for their efforts. The future looks good for retail in general going forward especially for those that trimmed up.
Will finish tomorrow with Justice and the shares and how they play out going forward. With the share repurchase plan Ascena has in place which is rather important with the 2 board members who are also deep in shares, they will make sure the right competent decision is brought up, though i doubt they even have to its a no brainer in the fortune 500 world, look at what the airlines did in 2013. This one will surprise no doubt, But will layout the rest of details on DD we found and you can make your own minds up, but, at least some honest information to refer to now when overwhelmed with nonsense and agenda driven double talk and arrogance from those who have no reason under the sun to act as such. Most who are arrogant and condescending have nothing but attitude as there just isn't anything else there, like talking to an empty bag.
No problem novice glad you saw the light, you were a tough nut to crack LOL.
Just remember as I always say when you start or add a position do it on the bid, never slap the ask we are investors not traders, don't chase it and don't slap the ask it will come to you. Slapping the ask is for those that shorted it in the first place.
Peace out
Now a cigarette both right and left I am in the home stretch ha ha.
BTW I do appreciate the thanks for the time energy, but, at the end of the day it is something that had to be done anyway and this is what message boards are for, the dissemination and discussion of investments, good ones not hyped up BS, those are for gamblers that need the action not people looking ahead at their future.
I was taught by retired hard core smart investor types from the street (WStreet) who knew the game, they thankfully spent countless hours on Raging Bull in the 90's teaching me, if it weren't for them I and my friends here, family, and my deep pocket friends would not have been so successful. It only takes finding 1-2 a year that have the goods, that's it, it is remarkably simple if one wishes to put in the time, and I am happy to pay it forward.
And never put all ones eggs in one basket, have numerous baskets and as your money appreciates take a little off the table from time to time in bits and pieces that's when you see the ask LOL. At a point you should get yo where you are riding free especially in a company that is rising back up to a fortune 500 power again, it never wasn't it was sick a little bit draining to much energy (money) doctor has been taking care that and will continue to do so.
Now to go into the shares the float so bandied about and institutional shareholders as well as insider shares held and just what can be done about it which is so obvious. It is the most obvious thing that is hyped and misinterpreted about this entire thing. The insider ownership which is important to note as it just tells someone that they are not going to pee in their own corn flakes for one, not that it should have come to anyone's mind except to sew seeds of fear and doubt in people. At the top of the list David and Elise Jaffe, collectively own 21.8 million shares (11.1%) of ASNA. Now there mother was the founder of Dress Barn and David Jaffe is a board member.John L. Welborn, a managing director at Stadium Capital Management which holds 19.2 million (9.8%) shares now if you don't think for that those two alone as board members with David's sister included will not make sure this goes well for stakeholders, I have a bridge to sell you.
You can bet your bottom dollar those two's number 1 focus the last and future 6 months has been on one thing above all. Making the right decisions as they have and making it come out smelling like a rose for shareholders. Other shareholders which should not be forgotten or thought of as not having put some serious though into the situation are the institutional shareholders. The top 10 of which are
BlackRock, Inc..............25,919,983.....13.1%
GOLDEN GATE PRIVATE EQUITY..17,468,570.....8.83%
Dimensional Fund Advisors...15,502,339.....7.83%
Nomura Holdings, Inc........15,105,247.....7.63%
The Vanguard Group..........13,652,497.....6.9%
Sapience Investments, LLC...10,395,417.....5.25%
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT..........6,663,000.....3.36%
Renaissance Technologies.....5,881,240.....2.97%
Atom Investors Lp............5,872,804.....2.96%
SCHWAB CHARLES
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC....5,266,883.....2.66%
STATE STREET CORP............ 4,886,334....2.47%
Now I here the there is a 150 million share float this will never get back over a dollar without a RS, either naive, dumb or liars, one of the three should cover it.
Now yes the float is technically 150 million shares give or take, but, that is not what I call myself the true float. The true float is not a known entity at any given time but one can get an approximate guess by looking at institutional shareholders Q filings back to back. Now when all the negativity started and it was obvious that Ascena had to and would be making some big changes many retail shareholders fled, some didn't majority probably did, some came in and that is when they personally started their ASNA journey, I and mine are some of the late late comers to the party. We watch and see what falls out fo the tree, then we dig through the roots and find out all there is to know, and we did. And thus we started out journey. Now in the lasy Q filing by institutions and funds it shows that some did leave and some trimmed out a little bit, mostly smaller funds to medium sized funds bailed larger trimmed many added and one started a position for over 5 million shares.
Of those that sold out there were many but the amount of shares for the number of them was insignificant. Lets start with the sellers then move to the adders and starters.
Sold Out Positions.....43.....5,096,048
Decreased Positions.....93.....19,145,550 shares
New Positions.....13.....8,081,899 shares
Increased Positions.....61.....21,788,253 shares
So those adding or starting positions although smaller in number took out even more of the what I call true float institutional holdings went up 5,628,554 after the company announced it would have to do some adjusting and sales and closures would be taking place. They did did the right thing before then by paying forward to 2020 their interest payment on debt, but, that didn't stop the town criers and the purveyors of gloom and doom. They worked their magic shorted the heck out of it, leaked false misleading nonsense to the media the rest was taken care of by the smaller market players, the flippers, the short groups etc.
So yes technically the float is 150 million or there about, but, that doesn't mean the float IS 150 million or anywhere near it. And going forward as the muddy clears and the days get just a little brighter the stock will do as it should as the "real" market will take over, and when a pissing contest occurs in the big sandbox you want to steer clear, just saying. Many smaller funds in my opinion and experience over the years did so to add back lower, take the short loss for adding back the bottom and adding the rise with the positive things as they unfold, its how it happens. Will they all probably not, they like a lot of traders are in and out and have a new pretty girl on their arm by now, but many will and many funds will add back trimmed share its just how its done like it is with anyone's own personal account. Best to keep your head down while all the firing is going on. Now going forward and a little matter of the Lane Bryant/Catherine's sale going through and shares.
Okay now I would like to go back to Maurice's for just a second as it is relevant going forward as Ascena still owns 49% of the company. First the company that acquired it and a little bit about their history then what we may see going forward from Maurice's. OpCapita Consumer Opportunities Fund II LP, advised by OpCapita LLP ("OpCapita"), a private equity firm specializing in the operational improvement of businesses in the retail, consumer and leisure industries.
""OpCapita has considerable expertise in value apparel retail, most notably demonstrated by its successful turnaround of NKD, a leading European value clothing retailer operating approximately 1,800 stores, which it sold to funds advised by TDR Capital on 19th March 2019. Under its ownership, OpCapita significantly improved the profitability of the business through operational improvements, seeing NKD restored from a heavily loss-making enterprise at the time of initial investment in 2013 to one generating significant earnings.""
Why does this mean a hill of beans for Ascena? First and foremost we are their partners now and share 49% going forward in earnings and in any future sale of the company. Now with the NKD endeavor just quoted it shows, they are an outfit that knows what they are doing and have proven they can take a company and cut costs, turnaround losses to gains and then sell it for a profit simple. Now Maurice's was not in such bad shape when it was sold, it had some falling comps but was not a big money loser as of late at the numbers from Q3 show
Net sales $238 million
Comparable sales +1.0%
Gross margin 56.9%
Operating Income $32 million
Income tax $7 million
Net Income $25 million
Maurice's still had significant attractiveness to a potential buyer and for Ascena to work a deal to retain some ownership. So Maurice's came through adding $200 mil liquidity and should add going forward to the bottom line. Obvious choice for Ascena sell Maurice's retain ownership close Dress Barn.
So going forward when Lane Brant/Catherine's is sold after selling majority stake in Maurice's and closing Dress Barn. Well first lets see what they gain in the way of stemmed losses going forward, which is what this game is all about, the game I am referring to is investing.
We already stated the obvious, the addition of $200 million in liquidity to help with closures of Dress Barn cost etc, which seems to be totally ignored by those wishing to live in drama land. Not to mention to share in the future earnings and future sale when it is back to firing on all cylinders which as I pointed out is not a task that will be as hard as one might think with the focus of a partner that knows what they are doing and most of all focus on getting it done without 6 other brands to worry about. Closing of Dress Barn that is a no brainier, that decision will and already is cutting losses now and going forward with the closure of over 100 Dress Barns 53 were closed by mid July.
hat is first and foremost a lot of operational losses going forward cut, gone. Yes, some revenue loss will be there as it will be by closing all the Dress Barns but closing them all by December under favorable terms means going forward 650 stores will not be losing them money all those losses gone, the revenues lost means nothing as the yearly losses far outweigh anything else. Whether you do $5 billion or $4 billion in revenues it doesn't matter you are still a massive Fortune 500 company. What matter is how much you add to your bank account not how much flows through it. This is just another thing that made us say wait a minute things are looking good going forward after there plan is executed which seems to be going at a rather steady pace with all the right moves being made. Does it hurt, are there some re-adjustment pains yes, but, to have it valued as if it were a chain of car washes, seriously who is trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes?
Back to Dress Barn and their costs from closing, lets talk about the elephant in the room. Closing the Dress Barn line with a large amount of stores and many different landlords the bulk of which are large public corporations that are also in a tough period with many retail retailers closing down stores either from the group (which really isn't that many) to those that are scaling down and closing stores in places that no longer do enough business, closing stores where they find they opened to many stores in one area and find they can close many that have their leases coming or near to term, this actually happens all the time, it is just overblown by media and hedge funds pushing articles and going on tv or giving the newsprint media quotes to help support their positions which were large in the retail and affiliated sectors (landlords) malls are closing, retail is dead run for your lives, BUY AMZN that happened in the 1999/2000 dot com craze too. Support your short, pump your long.
There have been rumors, substantive rumors that the overwhelming majority of Dress Barn's landlords were amiable to work out a deal to close Dress barns in an amenable way for both Ascena and the landlords.
First the company said "It also announced plans in May to close all 650 of its Dressbarn stores, which are a group of women's apparel stores and another part of the company's Value Fashion segment. Management also noted at this time that "we have received overwhelming landlord support for our plan, which will allow us to implement our wind down in a manner that provides the best recovery for our landlords".
Second I found a gif that came from a debt buyer/sellers private forum and it is added to this post. I also read the CC transcripts for numerous of the public company landlords and they did either state Dress Barns were to be open until December 18th specifically when asked or they addressed it in their comments at the start.
Does this mean they are not going along with the closure at all? Or that they chose to allow them to get out of the lease at year end instead of taking the higher lease breakage payment to have occupancy?
— Roger Atlas (@RogerAtlas2) August 2, 2019
The next thing I wish to address is the hype pushed by media outlets such as Retail Dive which was set up in Jan of 2019 for one specific purpose to help try and take down the retail sector as were numerous twitter accounts etc. Hence the name "Retail Dive" can I prove it, no. But common sense and experience gives me from my own perspective and own opinions and rationale yes, it is just something clever hedge fund/funds would do. When you make a big bet on a plan you have to make an investment. A new rule that came in effect Dec 2018 making companies have to put future lease payments down as long term debt obligations on the balance sheet increased many companies "so called debt" by 100-2500% as well as cyclical reasons weak/falling retail sales 2017 etc it happens in the retail sector every 8-10 years it needs s shakeout. Many may say 2500% get real, no a stock I am in had $10 mil in the form of a credit line debt, new rule supposedly had their their debt jump $279 million
It didn't but they new people wouldn't know of the rule, the debt numbers could be polarized and hyped, and fed to the media as a bad thing and its an apocalypse, Armageddon etc etc. That and the E-commerce takeover farce (that's been hyped for 20 years since the Dot Com P&D) along with willing/duped media and social media spreading of dubious info full of half truths got it done, and well. Did many companies need to go out of business yes, but that happens all the time and every 8-10 years the cycle repeats itself and many do in numbers. But it isn't an Armageddon etc its business, and society and changes, not E-commerce and not lease obligations being moved from the notes of a filing to the balance sheet it was always there now it is just front and center, but to describe it as debt is a stretch. Is you apartment/house rental payment a debt? No its an obligation that comes out of your monthly budget nothing more nothing less.
The company has a long term note/debt of $1.34 billion total that is due in quarterly payments of $22.5 mil then more than 3 years from now they owe a balloon payment of $1.2 billion. Now there was a story fed to a reporter at the NY Post that lenders were not having phone calls answered and were worried that the company would file BK and default on the loan. This was an obvious lie, fed to them with someone having an agenda a hedge fund no doubt, IMHO. What is not MHO and is indeed fact is that even before the Maurice's sale Ascena had paid $180 mil in quarterly debt payments early up to Nov 2020, so the lenders had no earthly reason to be worried at all, nor I would venture to say were they. An example, say you owed monthly payments on a property that in 2023 you must pay off or if all is well refinance and knowing you are going to lose your job and have a short term hiccup went ahead and paid 18 months ahead on it, would you expect the bank to say we are worried about 2023?
They wouldn't, lenders want two things and lend for those two reasons, its what they do. They want you to stay sound, make good decisions, but, most importantly pay your payments on time first. Now Ascena knowing they were going to do some juggling in getting the business streamlined down lose a little here, trim a little there, went ahead and said lets just take care of this now, that is one thing we will not have to worry about its sorted. So they pay 180 million ahead, now the lenders who received this money not only got the money early they are enjoying it early, can make money with it again earlier, one thing they aren't doing is worrying. They just got a bonus 180 mil they can put to use again early. That is what they do. Now Also in the article it said the lenders were upset and even more uneasy as they thought they should receive that Maurice's money even though they were paid $180 million in advance by more than a year, seriously? Sure and there is a tooth fairy too.
The truth is there is nothing, let me say this again nothing facing Ascena, especially after the Maurice's sale that Ascena is facing that looks anywhere even slightly with Coke bottle thick glasses on that looks like a BK could or would happen now or in the next 3 years, nothing. Nonsense and hedge fund BS nothing more nothing less, lets look into first what can happen with the Maurice's funds that came in since they are more than a year ahead in payments to the lenders and that's reality and the law. You make your payments the bank cannot call in a loan and kick you out, end of story that is why it is called a contract. Now what I/we considered for our own minds the most important was to look at the Maurice's sale and that influx of cash since there ""wasn't a debt payment due for more than a year"" just figured would repeat that again. The company is closing Dress Barn down and when they close a chain like that there are costs, not only with the stores but in house
From the last filing Q3
"""""During Fiscal 2018, we repaid a total of $225.0 million term loan debt of which $180.0 million was applied to future quarterly scheduled payments such that we are not required to make a quarterly payment until November of calendar 2020."""""
And secondly, remember this when we go into discussing the Lane Bryant/Catherine's sale.
"""" We may from time to time seek to repay or purchase our outstanding debt through open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions or otherwise depending on prevailing market conditions and our liquidity requirements, subject to any restrictions under our debt arrangements, among other factors."""""
Now back to Dress Barn closing and costs which Maurice's $200 mil will help with. Certain one time costs come about that are associated with closing down a chain within a corporation which going forward cuts payroll/costs. Mgt. severance pay is a one time cost as the positions become redundant.
.On May 20, 2019, the Company announced its plan to wind down its dressbarn brand. The wind down is currently expected to be completed in the first half of fiscal 2020. The Company expects to record severance and other closing costs, primarily related to its retail store leases, a portion of which is expected to be recorded in the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019, however it is currently unable to estimate the amount of any anticipated charge. As a result of the decision, the Company recorded an impairment charge in the third quarter of Fiscal 2019 to write down store related fixed assets to fair market value.
On June 4, 2019, in connection with the cost savings target announced during the third quarter of Fiscal 2019, the Company announced a reduction in headcount of approximately 180 employees. This action resulted in severance charges of approximately $10-$15 million which will be recorded during the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2019.
I get asked a lot about the difference in the first losses/gains per share and the second given by companies and why the second number is lower. In as easy a way of explaining as I can, the first number are write downs/impairments losses, like losses to future business (revenues) as when you sell Maurice's or close Dress Barns its a company business going forward loss, its more complicated than that but, it's as close as I can get, its not they lost actual cash of XYZ that Q or Y its value loss of the business by it becoming smaller, I guess is simplest way to put it. Then the future losses like losses by severance pay, and other costs associated with closing down Dress barns, outstanding debts within each store etc. They knew that was facing them so they took a write down loss last Q that's why the loss looked so huge among other reasons $100's of millions it's not really like money/cash loss. Like oh my god they are burning through all that cash, no its not cash, to put simpler.
This post and a few others today and tomorrow are DD posts that explain how my and others came up with our personal feelings on the outlook for Ascena in regards to the sale of Lane Bryant and Catherine's E-commerce, Debt, Share Repurchase all the aspects of what is happening with Ascena so it would be easier for people to see/find the info, nothing else just putting the information out there as most haven't the time or the wherewithal to do so. I hope some find it useful its just information and opinion nothing else.
So I got a lot of questions asked of me and one was about where the $700 million figure comes from that I spoke of in my thoughts on the Lane Bryant Catherine's sale, I will try and explain how/why I came to the common sense conclusions we did, which after all when you take "trading the chart" out of the discussion that is what you are left with reasoning, based on a common sense historical perspective. I know many now a days say don't hold stock investing is dead, etc, you make no money ha ha Amazon $14 in 1999/2000 nuff said, without investors there would be no market, it takes both investors and traders, bulls and bears. The $700 million, while I personally think is low, but as one should always listen to other people and their reasoning I did and settled on a range $700 mil low $800 mil high. The first part of that figure is easy, its public knowledge from Maurice's sale after fees left with $200 million so now we are at $500-600..
The getting from the $200 million dollar influx of cash that the Maurice's sale brought them to the $700-800 million opinion used a number of rationales. First and foremost it doesn't include the $100 mill cash they had at the end of the quarter, I have seen that number thrown around added to the Maurice's number for ways to take care of debt etc. That cannot be added into the mix, that is their money operate the business day to day and the more money a company has on hand the less they have to use of their credit revolver (line of credit) for short to medium needs thus saving large short term interest payments. The credit revolver is simply that a credit line they use for short term needs. Unexpected capital expenditures and things such as heavy stocking for events such as holiday sales, its just a cushion for the cash they use which should be used for that only, running the company day to day so it should not be included when figuring out long term debt solutions.
So, it is an open secret that Ascena is going to sell Lane Bryant and Catherine's to, increase cash flow to sort out some debt, add the the balance sheet, take cut out a losing division so attention can be focused elsewhere, and to slim the company down as it is obvious it has gotten to large to manage properly, companies do that from time to time especially retail companies that buy up smaller players and take them under their umbrella so to speak. Now in 2012 they purchased Charming Shops which included Lane Bryant, Catherine's Plus Sizes, Fashion Bug and a mail order business which they later sold off for $900 million $325 cash and the rest through financing. What they also decided to do at the time was to close Fashion Bugs 124 stores, gut it out it was a loser going forward so just liquidate and get the cash out of them that you could, as selling the business as is the case with Dress Barn now was out of the question.
After the closing of the Fashion Bug line was started, which was completed in late 2013 the next part of their divestiture from the Lane Bryant (Charming Shoppes) acquisition was Figi's a mail order food and specialty gifts business which they did Oct 2013 they used those funds from the sale to pay down revolving credit debt (short term credit line)
Telling you all these things to fully explain how/why the $500-600 million for Lane Bryant's and Catherine's came about among the group of guys after 100's of hours of digging as it all needed to be used. At the time of the acquisition in 2013 of Lane Bryant's and Catherine's operated about 1227 stores now they operate 1,103 as over the years they streamlined the business, closed stores in areas that were over-saturated with the brands, and moved more business to E-commerce to service smaller markets as many companies have. E-Commerce for this among a few other uses is a excellent addition to the future of the retail business.
E-commerce taking over brick and mortar retail is a fantasy especially in the clothing business and especially in women's clothing/fashion for many reasons one glaring obvious reason is the entire shopping thing, one want's to see many clothes, in person, one wants to try on clothes in person every item doesn't fit every person the same way, someone may love something on the hanger take it and try it on and not like the looks on them after etc. But that is an explanation I will give to another question about the whole E-commerce will take over nonsense in another post. So using Maurice's sale, the purchase price originally of Charming Shoppes after the closing and liquidation of Fashion Bug and the sale of Figi's both in 2013 and the difference in store number etc I figured a sale for Lane Bryant/Catherine's would be $600 million others thought $500 million so we settled at the $500-600 range and thus the $700 million Maurice's $200 million + $500 million = $700 million
Nice, nuff said. EOM
Exactly. It won't once its cold, and it won't once truth leaks out about reality at KSA facility but till then, the games are afoot.
Well, we got the why more shares were brought over out of the other market to here now didn't we.
From the banter here and elsewhere for the last 6 months I have come under the conclusion from others feelings that Nasdaq listing brought different funds/tutes so more shares here than there were needed I would guess.
BTW was anyone aware of the PT upgrade by Lake Street from $8 to $10? I hadn't seen it on the board mentioned if it had, sorry. It occurred on the 18th of September.
We shall see.
Peace out.
Congrats all, should seeing a pr shortly days etc. But, nice. Very nice.
Peace out.
Shorts hitting it hard this morning, catching a lot as are others, still have the glove on, locking them down for the long game as you know, that's my MO.
Take off any stop losses, don't get caught just a piece of advice.
If you want any bid, don't play the slap the ask game its investing not a strongman contest. Then put them up high GTC orders so they aren't available for shorting might help a little.
Peace out.
Was excellent read thank RYGuy
Impreial Capital is at $13 there are a couple more I will have to find their last $'s one was $20.50
We didn't have any really when it was Eclipse Resources as it was 1-1.50 stock then the acquisition of Blue Ridge Mountain Resources and the RS which took SP to 20 we started getting looked at, now this is supposed to be the first one with all the bells and whistles we shall see.
So 15-1 RS increases/beats everything will make more than the share price is today and is trading at .25 pre RS price when it banged at 1-1.40 now making more having more assets etc etc. Crazy, I know the RS helped the bears get a hold of it, but seriously. I am looking for a couple of strong buys this coming ER as capex will be down again revenues will be up again and profits will be up again, the higher oil will offset the lower gas price and the gas production increased this Q I believe.
I mean book value its like %35-40 or something, assets off the chain. I wish I had that kind of $$ I would buy it all and say okay we are going private %^&*( all of ya. LOL.
When it was Eclipse Resources last year it always beat as it does now and has for 2 years and would pop 40-50% strong. Since the RS its continues to increase revs, get cash flow positive, beats every consensus in every category I mean they will earn well over what they are selling for right now in the next 12 months, its crazy.
But bears have it in their grip, hopefully after this next ER will get a few strong buy PTs as will really be rocking then can get rid of the mf'ers.
In May 3 insiders purchased roughly 258,500 shares @10 avg pps
been no sales except sales back to the company to cover taxes for shares acquired during acquisition. So insiders have stepped up @10 for $2.5 mil we just have to bide our time a bit, as everything is positive, everything is going well etc, just not getting any respect at the moment.
Sorry if this is a little jumbled i am half tired long day another tomorrow. Wanted to post this and do other DD tomorrow.
There will be a Q&A at next CC
https://ir.montageresources.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage/default.aspx
Barclays Paul Chambers 212-412-7608 paul.d.chambers@barclays.com
BMO Capital Markets Phillip Jungwirth 303-436-1127 phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com
Capital One Brian Velie 504-593-6141 brian.velie@capitalone.com
Guggenheim Securities Subash Chandra 212-918-8771 subash.chandra@guggenheimpartners.com
Heikkinen Energy Advisors Kevin MacCurdy 713-955-5341 kmaccurdy@heikenergy.com
Howard Weil Holly Stewart 713-393-4512 hollys@howardweil.com
Imperial Capital Irene Haas 713-892-5606 ihaas@imperialcapital.com
Johnson Rice & Company Ronald Mills 504-584-1217 rmills@jrco.com
JP Morgan Arun Jayaram 212-622-8541 arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com
RBC Capital Brad Heffern 512-708-6311 brad.heffern@rbccm.com
R.W. Pressprich Andrew Ginsburg 212-832-5058 aginsburg@pressprich.com
Stifel Jane Trotsenko 713-237-4528 trotsenkoj@stifel.com
Tuohy Brothers Jeffrey Campbell 212-605-0451 jcampbell@tuohybrothers.com
We do have analysts and price targets from 15-20's I believe will get them in the AM.
Exactly, its not MR as much as it is entire sector just getting bear rushed.
But, this too is the most undervalued compared to its peers by a country mile IMO.
Peace out, until tomorrow guys/ladies.