Francesca's Holdings Corp fka FRANQ

[tdeck]

They have us trading in a channel it will be a favorite of traders no doubt as new floors laid and next legs up taken as we move forward the rest of 2019 into 2020. Just keeping an eye on future outlook as it is in my opinion one of the best way to view a stocks future.

With Charming Charlies already having closed 261 stores as of the end of August and Forever 21 having already closed dozens of stores this past summer has now filed BK and is closing up to 178 throughout the U.S.

As Francesca's has already turned its business around and will continue to do so having 500 less competitor stores to compete with this coming holiday season with sales in the US expected to be up 4-5% this year.

One other thing to look at is box retailers although not direct competitors they do sell to a large group of Francesca's demographic in pert. No one just shops at one store but with less competitors out there this holiday season for 4-5% more dollars this year makes the outlook even better.

Francesca's won't get all their business or even the majority, but, they will gain some of their business 5-10% no doubt depending on the store, location and demographics. 5-10% is good and 5-10% of a further 4-5% spent this year is even better.

With Francesca's outlook after the turnaround by management showed in the last Q will be further shown in the coming Q and so on and so on helped by declining competitors and increasing retail sales numbers which have been growing at a steady clip since April.

At first news report stated that Forever 21 would just be closing its international stores and were unsure of US operations, the latest reports of 178 stores closing in the US is a welcome surprise to what was already going to be a great 2019/2020 season. Looking forward to watching it all unfold.

I chose this link on Forever 21's store closures to show people why I refer to the retail shakeout in 1998/1999 and its similarities and although they blamed it on the latest craze in the markets analysts were trying to pump the dot coms (today its AMZN taking over brick and mortar dead) what followed was a crazy banging powerful year and a half long bull market till the dot coms burst when it was realized it was all hype (as most investing fads are) and reality set in. The same will happen in the next 18 months until all the Teslas and Beyond Meat's Weed stocks etc when it is realized that they won't make a profit (Tesla's Beyond Meat's Green Energy) and the will make some profit but nowhere near what was expected as the governments in these liberal bastions that created the markets take more than their fair share of the pie.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-good-news-is-the-same-as-the-bad-news-this-market-looks-just-like-1998-2019-09-30

In that 18 months you will see retail storm back for two reasons, one the shakeout then as now was needed over expansion and the shakeout of the old dogs that need to be put to bed once and for all, JCPenny Sears etc. Sure like 20 years ago was blamed on the pump of the the past few years. Tesla,Weed, AMZN et al when these fail there will be what they call the flight to value, stocks in companies that actually make $$.

Not hyped up nonsense happens every 8-10 years like clockwork since the nifty fifty of the 70's. IMO over the next year people should do serious DD on these value sectors, look up past markets and news of the day is easy now with the internet, search value stock 1999 etc or flight to value find out what those sectors are and over the next 12 months get yourself into those type companies at their multi year lows or as close as youn to them.

Not all mind you, once you find the sector then you have to do some time searching and digging and reading the 10Q's for multiple quarters read every page, every note use Invstopedia to help with things you don't understand they usually have videos, short one 2-4 minutes that will explain what you are searching for, be it "write downs" certain gains losses,whatever you don't understand in a filing type what the name of the note and search it and learn it. Then when you find the good ones set your alerts and be on watch to get cash flow, cash rich, low/no debt value sector stocks, IMHO.

Just paying forward advice I learned from some old dogs back in the day that were helpful enough to pass on the info to young guy willing to learn. You can spend the time doing DD and thinking/planning now rather than with a doubt, spending 10X the amount of time in the future thinking about what you should have done. History repeats itself over and over and over again.

90% of you traders there's no help or advice, except to get your resumes ready, every tr and momo a stagnant market that lasts for 2-4 years?

Peace out.