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Yep. I just had Rotator Cuff Surgery (Mountain Bike Crash in July). The MD's gave me the usual Opiods for the pain - but I also have my Medical Cannabis Card.
Needless to say, I took the Opiods for the first few days and then switched to Edibles ASAP. Opiods can kill you. Cannabis can't. Cannabis is non-toxic.
I haven't had a beer or a drink in almost 6 weeks and everytime I want some alcohol - I just hit my vape instead.
And I feel 100% better now that I am not drinking alcohol. This may seem silly coming from me - but I really think alcohol is poison. Cannabis is just a better alternative for me in so many ways.
It just tells us that The Retail Investors are not into PEIX yet.
Only Retail Investors use these Boards.
But the Big Institutions are the ones that actually MOVE the Stock Price.
So I kinda like it that this board is dead.
China needs Ethanol.
It is an Election Year and Trump needs to make sure the Iowa Corn Farmers are happy.
And we might go to war with Iran.
So I can see why PEIX has gained more than 50% in just a few weeks.
If China starts buying US Ethanol Tariff-Free, that could be the catalyst that US Ethanol Stocks have been waiting for.
I really think there is going to be a "shift" in Chicago from drinking Alcohol to consuming Cannabis.
Personally, I have stopped drinking beer in favor of Cannabis. Cannabis has zero calories and the effects are immediate.
And I can see a lot of other people making this shift also.
I'd much rather consume my calories with healthy food than alcohol. It just makes more sense.
I'm optimistic about the Cannabis Sector in 2020 also.
There are lines around the block at the Dispensaries here in Chicago and Legal Cannabis is selling for $20-$25 per gram.
So some Cannabis Companies are going to make BIG $$$$$ in 2020.
IMO, 2020 is going to separate the Winners from the Losers.
I'm tracking a bunch of stocks and Cannabis Stocks and I'll move my Capital around to where I can get the best returns while taking into account the amount of time my capital is tied-up.
Yep. Today's drop is close to tripping my Stop Losses. But I'll still walk away with a quick 6% gain if it trips.
I'm not going into the Red ever with Aurora.
Averaging down on a death-spiral stock never works for me. So I'd much rather walk away with a small profit - than a loss.
Q1 2020 is going to be an interesting time for the Cannabis Sector.
The Winners and Losers are definitely becoming more apparent as time goes on.
Cresco Labs and Green Thumb are the main players in Illinois Market (if you want to try to capitalize on the recent Illinois Legalization).
The lines in Illinois yesterday were substantial. But you would expect them in a City of 3 million people.
Edibles and Flower were legal on Day #1 (so there is no Cannabis 2.0 like in Canada).
We'll have to wait and see how well Cresco and Green Thumb do in Q1 2020 - but Cresco was already selling about $70 Million/Quarter before recreational in Illinois - so I would expect a huge up-tick in Q1 due to recreational.
Pot does cost pennies to produce. However, I really don't think it will ever sell for pennies.
Just look at Tobacco. How much does it cost to produce a pack of Malboros? And how much does a pack of Malboro's Cost? I think in Chicago a pack of Cigarettes is $10-$15 (but I'm not sure because I don't smoke those things).
So even though Cannabis is cheap to produce - I can still see where the Tax Man will keep it expensive to buy.
$30-$35 and 1/8th seems to be the sweet spot for Retail Cannabis Pricing (this is based on my trips to Mexico, Oregon, Colorado, Amsterdam, Barcelona, etc).
Yep!!
Cannabis is easy to grow. I start with Coco and mix in Bone Meal, Earth Worm Castings, and Bat Guano and then I just feed with Molasses during Flowing (the Girls LOVE sugar).
If you just grow 5 plants correctly, you can easily get 1.5 pounds per harvest.
So you can grow pounds for very little cost.
The reason why Cannabis was so expensive in the past was because it was ILLEGAL. If you want Toothpaste to be expensive - just make it illegal.
But now that Cannabis is Legal - the stuff grows like weeds. Literally.
Yep. I live right by the Cresco Labs (aka: Sunnyside) Dispensary on Clark Street.
The line was on the other side of Clark, then you had to cross the street, and then you had to go through about 6 switchbacks. There were about 300 people in line all day long.
Cresco Labs said they serviced 3,145 Customers on Day 1 from just their Clark Street Store.
At $100 each, that is $314,500 of sales from 1 store in 1 day.
People were walking-out with their Orange Cresco Bags and they were acting like they were Tiffany Blue Bags.
Cresco's Branding is spot-on and they have 5 of the City Locations Wrapped-Up.
With 13,000,000 People in Illinois it is the second largest legal state behind California and it appears that Cresco and Green Thumb have a good hold on the Illinois Market so far.
Yep. I'm loving my $1.90 yesterday shares also.
However, I am going to let this run a little (to see where it goes) before taking profit.
The entire Cannabis Sector was beaten to a pulp in 2019. And to tell the truth, I am having trouble making sense of it.
The Long-Longs are not selling at a loss and Institutions have been buying - so the steady decline we witnessed through-out the industry doesn't make sense.
There could be some "Super" Short Sellers out there that were willing to risk Billions $$$ to bring this Industry down. But they would be battling directly with the Big Institutions that are BUYING - so something doesn't seem right.
Either the Big Institutions really weren't buying - or something else is going on here.
But I'm sure whatever it is - it will correct itself soon.
Thanks!! Happy New Year!
Yep!! Me too!! My Girls are going to be 100% legal at 12:00:01 tomorrow morning!!
What a great New Years this is gonna be!!
I have some Tropicana Cookies I am going to spark-up at midnight.
Prohibition is over in Illinois tonight!! (Not that it ever stopped anything before - but it's nice to be legal anyway). LOL!!
LOL!!
I am whatever I need to be to MAXIMIZE PROFITS.
But I have to admit, the shares I bought yesterday are off to a great start this morning.
When I sold at $6.60, it wasn't because I was taking profits on a 10% 3-Day gain. I sold because ACB was going to tank after the ER. I was just betting on the run-up to the ER.
So my moves are not about capturing short upsides. But if a short-upside is all to be had before the stock tanks - I'll be happy with a little profit instead of a loss.
That said, we'll have to see where ACB goes after the New Year.
Thursday should tell us something.
WOW!! The Longs are right!!
Those $1.90 shares I bought yesterday are already up 11% this morning!!
I like it when I am in the GREEN!!
And I intend to stay in the GREEN. ACB is on a short leash.
I like hitting Home Runs as much as anyone does - but Base Hits and RBI's win Baseball Games.
So we'll see where this goes. The trend is usually UP in January-March and then the "Sell in May and Go Away" saying kicks in.
Actually, we'll see how it goes.
If it goes up consistently - I'll add more.
If it goes down - I'll dump it (no use in throwing good money after bad).
But you have to read my entire post. If the Long-Longs are not selling and the Big Institutions are buying - then WHY is are all the Canadian Cannabis Stocks in the toilet?
Or are the Long-Longs Selling for a Loss?
Or are the Big Institutions not really buying?
Someone is fibbing here - because there is no way that this decline happened because of just short selling. Even short sellers have to buy to cover sometime - and we haven't seen any short squeezes in any major Cannabis Stocks. The short sellers are good - but they aren't that perfect.
So this long, steady, sell-off is weird.
As we take a step back and reflect on the huge decline in Cannabis Stock Prices in 2019 - it really does look like a BIG TIME concerted effort to short the whole industry down to the current levels.
I mean, there is no way that Individual (Retail) Short Sellers brought the Canadian Cannabis Stock Prices down this far - this fast.
And there were some links posted on this message board that clearly stated that Institutions have been BUYING Canadian Cannabis Stocks over the past 9 months.
As such, I am still a-miss on what brought this sector down so fast.
If the Long-Longs are all holding tight and are not selling for a loss. And the Big Institutions are supposedly buying - then who the heck is shorting these stocks to death?
I fully understand why Wall Street is so negative on the Cannabis Industry - but if the BIG INSTITUTIONS really have been BUYING and the Long-Longs are not selling at a loss - then something is wrong here.
I might buy a some shares at $1.90 today (just to get ACB on my main screen and see what happens on 1/2/2020).
ACB is trading at $1.91 today.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!
That joke is so funny - I will say it again:
ACB is trading at $1.91 today.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!
The shorts are laughing all the way to the Bank. The Long-Longs are crying.
If you are a Long-Long, you should not be laughing. Unless losing money makes you laugh to avoid depression (then that is okay).
Uh, did the Downtrend since March ever really stop?
OMG!! You are so right!!
As soon as ACB announces the deal with Coke and Pepsi - ACB's Share Price will go higher!!
But until then, ACB is worth about 50 Cents a Share "Book Value".
"Book Value" is just a Gauge that REAL INVESTORS use to determine the value of a stock. There are other factors at play here also.
One of those other factors is COMPETITION in the Sector.
Once you factor in the COMPETITION from Canopy, VFF, Tilray, and the rest of the Canadian Growers - then maybe even 50 Cents is too high for ACB Shares.
So thank you. You just determined that ACB should be trading below Book Value.
Yep!!
There is an old saying. It goes like this:
If you sit down at a Poker Game and you look around the table.
If you cannot figure-out who the sucker at the table is - then it is YOU.
Yep. I totally agree. And I bet the German Cannabis Companies can find some really EDUCATED Botanists to help them grow World Class Weed.
If the Germans can engineer great cars like Porsche, BMW, Audi, etc - I am pretty sure they can use that same intelligence to grow great Cannabis.
If our Math is correct and ACB currently does have a 50 Cent/Share Book Value.
That means that ACB is currently trading at 4 times Book Value.
This is not necessarily a bad thing for a "Growth Company".
BUT (Big BUT) - If ACB does not hit a "home run" in their next Financial Report - they are toast.
ACB really needs to show SIGNIFICANT Top & Bottom Line GROWTH.
Yep. I've been saying that for a while too.
I really don't think the Long-Longs have read the Financial Statements.
BECAUSE if they did read the Financial Statements - they wouldn't be Long-Longs.
Cannabis is going to be legal in Illinois in another 4 Days.
To tell the truth, I don't care if weed is legal on a Federal Level.
All I care about is what is happening in my State. And a lot of people feel this way also.
I mean, if you are living in California where weed is legal - do you really care about the people living in Alabama?
Let the people in Alabama write their own Governor.
And also, the American Cannabis Market is very fragmented.
In Oregon, you can only buy weed grown in Oregon.
In Illinois, you can only buy weed grown in Illinois.
In Canada, you can only buy weed grown in Canada.
The Governments are doing this for a reason. The Governors want the Tax Money - but they also want to CREATE LOCAL JOBS as well.
So I really don't see Canadian Cannabis being imported to the USA anytime soon. The USA will grow their own weed and keep the jobs down here.
OMG!! I came-up with 50 Cents a share also!! Same math.
You have to take ACB's "hard assets" (not worthless intangibles like the $3 Billion in Goodwill) and then subtract out all of ACB's Liabilities.
Then - what is ever left - just divide that by 1.09 Billion shares or so.
When you do that math - you find-out very quickly that ACB is not worth what you think it is.
Based on the 9/30/19 Financial Statements - you get this:
Total Assets $5,503
Less: Intangibles (3,841)
Net "Real" Assets $1,662
Liabilities ($1,117)
Net Assets - Liabilities = $545 Million ($1,662 - $1,117)
$545 Million divided by 1,090,000,000 shares = About 50 Cents a Share.
So Book Value of ACB appears to be approximately 50 Cents a share.
The shorts already know all this. That is why they have been shorting non-stop since $10.
Yep!! Exactly!!
I wrote posts about this 8 months ago.
The Long-Longs think that when a Foreign Country Legalizes Cannabis - then ACB Salesmen will rush-in and capture the market.
But in reality, the Foreign Governments are legalizing Cannabis to create jobs for THEIR OWN PEOPLE. They do not want to IMPORT Canadian Weed.
And to tell the truth, I bet the weed grown in the Thailand Sunshine will be better than anything Aurora can grow indoors.
Germany is a huge Cannabis Market - but I am pretty sure than the Germans are intelligent enough to learn how to grow their own weed too.
Growing weed is not Rocket Science.
Here is what could happen.
ACB will survive!! (But don't start cheering).
ACB has value. But ACB's Creditors, Debtors, and Perferred Shareholders come FIRST. Common Shareholders are LAST in line.
So if ACB cannot make it's Debt Payments - the Debtors of ACB could end-up owning the company.
There will be a Bankruptcy Debt Restructuring (and ACB will still stay in Business) and the Debtors will get a SWEET DEAL where they get Convertable Shares worth 2 Times their Debt (for taking the risk) and ACB will have the perfect opportunity to clean-up their Balance Sheet.
ACB will write-off their Goodwill as part of the Restructuring and their Balance Sheet going forward will be awesome.
However, all the Current Common Shareholders will get is a jar of Vaseline (if they are lucky). Because they will be screwed.
This happens all the time. Debtors come first - Common Shareholders come LAST.
Okay. Now the question is: Would Warren Buffet even invest in ACB in the first place?
Warren Buffet Averages Down on Wells Fargo and Coca-Cola (which have been in business for almost 100 years).
But would Warren Buffet Average Down on a start-up growth company with DECLINING quarter-over-quarter Revenues?
I love it how people quote Warren Buffet and try to apply it to OTC Penny Stocks. Warren does not buy OTC Penny Stocks.
Averaging Down does not usually work.
What happens is: You usually just end-up with more shares of a losing company. Not more shares of a winning company.
In order for Averaging Down to work - you are "gambling" on a reversal taking place at some future period. But if Cannabis Stocks were a one-time bubble - then the reversal might not happen. I mean, does anyone really see Tilray trading at $300 again?
Instead of Averaging Down - a better play is to simply SELL (yes SELL) when you know a stock is tanking - and then simply buy back MORE SHARES at the lower price at a future date.
For Example: I sold ACB at $10/Share (just a fact) - and now I can buy back 5 TIMES the shares at $2/Share.
BUT if I Averaged Down from $10/Share - I would be sitting with a TON of ACB shares that are still in the RED. This would not be a fun place to be.
The question is: Do the items that you buy on sale at the Super Market EVER increase in value?
There is a big difference between a good company being "on sale" because the market is down - and a bad company just being a bad company.
The Stock Market is at all-time HIGHS. And ACB is at all-time LOWS. That does not sound like a "sale" to me.
Oh no!!
It appears that today's 1 Cent Explosive Run-Up was based on a Fake News Story involving Coca-Cola.
At this point, the Long-Longs will try anything to get an Up-Tick in ACB.
There is lots of time between today and the next ER.
So we're going to have to wait and see where ACB trades at until a "real" catalyst appears.
Without a "game changing" catalyst - it appears ACB will continue to slide.
ACB has been on a steady downward slide since March.
As such, I wouldn't consider any Up-Tick in ACB a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Dead Cat Bounces signal a short-term recovery after a steep sudden sell-off.
But ACB is more like a long-slow mudslide downhill.
Thanks Scrapiron!!
It's good to see that my posts are not all falling on deaf ears!!
In one sense: ACB seems like a good value at Under $2.
I mean, ACB has fallen so far so fast that we are back to Stock Prices before Aurora Sky was even up and producing and before Canada was even legal.
It seems insane - but it is reality.
But from a Financial Sense (which is how most investors invest) ACB's Balance Sheet, Cash Flows, and Income Statement leave a lot to be desired (I am saying this nicely).
So IMO, ACB is more of a "Gamble" than an investment.
BUT there is nothing wrong with Gambling - as long as you know you are Gambling.
People at the Casino can win big. But Vegas was not built on the winners.
Yep!! Me too!!
Back in 2018, I actually believed that both Sky Class facilities would be funded 100% by Positive Cash Flows (Because Cam said it).
I also believed that ACB's Sales into 25 FOREIGN COUNTRIES would be significant.
However, I was able to determine neither one of these was happening because I read the Financial Statements.
People can lie - but audited numbers don't.
Yep!!
IMO: When a widely-held stock is down significantly - investors really need to beware of fake news (no reference to Trump) and fraud.
Let's face it. 2019 has not been a good year for ACB Shareholders.
And when A LOT of people are in the RED - then some of them may get desperate for gains so they can sell and get out on any "POP".
And some of them might try and "manufacture" a short-term gain with FAKE NEWS Stories.
So my point is; Consider the SOURCE of the information. I trust Bloomberg, MSNBC, Barrons, Forbes, Investors Business Daily, and the Wall Street Journal.
IMO: The rest (Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool, etc) is fluff. But the articles are FUN to read (and so is the National Enquirer in the Grocery Line).
Actually, today's 1.5 Cent Up-Tick might be the shorts covering after they shorted the unexpected news of Cam's Departure.
Or it could be the deal Nelson struck with Coca-Cola.
Or it could be the Tax Loss Sellers are waiting until tomorrow to sell.
Up-Ticks in ACB are so rare - it is really difficult to determine the exact cause.
Yep!
ACB is up 1.38 PERCENT today. That is incredible. The Long-Longs were right. Nelson must have gotten the Coke Deal done.
Why else would ACB be up 1.38%
Cam's Departure can't hurt? ACB Share Price dropped 10% after that announcement.
Or do you mean Cam's Departure can't hurt the shorts?