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I let go 1/3 today ... gunshy after the last falter and all the averaging down... hey, maybe I sold down to losers LOL... Yes it was very very nice today... and nice to see it sitting comfortably in the green... but this puppy likes to move a lot sometimes... It was printing a very hefty loss for quite a while... especially relative the account it is in...
I've been accumulating cattle/hog futures via the COW ETF on the US exchange. I'm ready :O)
OK who is preventing FOS from hitting 1.90 today ?
Where'd they go ?
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24499565
Hogs Rise to Eight-Month High on Increased Demand; Cattle Gain
By Tony C. Dreibus
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Hogs rose to an eight-month high on speculation that demand for cheap U.S. pork will increase as exports improve. Cattle futures also gained.
Pork exports rose to 390.7 million pounds in February, up 11 percent from January and 57 percent from the same month in 2007, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on April 10. Wholesale pork has jumped 19 percent since April 1, after touching the lowest price since December 2003. Hog futures still are down 3.7 percent in the past year.
``We had good export numbers in February,'' said David Bauer, president of Brite Futures in Milwaukee. ``We should see good export numbers for March. We had a lot of buying so that will tell us we had a good April.''
Hog futures for June settlement rose 2.35 cents, or 3.3 percent, to 74.275 cents a pound at 11:28 a.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, after earlier reaching 74.925 cents, the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 7.
Wholesale pork rose 2.68 cents, or 4.3 percent, to 65.3 cents a pound yesterday, USDA data show. Prices reached 54.87 cents on April 1.
Cattle prices rose on speculation that demand for beef will increase as temperatures rise in the U.S. and more people buy the meat for grilling outdoors.
Temperatures are expected to reach 74 degrees Fahrenheit (23 Celsius) in parts of Kansas and as high as 79 degrees today in South Dakota, National Weather Service data show.
Cattle futures for June delivery rose 1.25 cents, or 1.4 percent, to 91.35 cents a pound in Chicago. Wholesale beef climbed 1.62 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $1.4745 a pound today, USDA data show. The price has climbed for seven straight days.
Futures still have dropped 6 percent in the past year, partly on lower demand for beef as consumers switched to cheaper pork and chicken.
Feeder-cattle futures for August delivery rose 0.475 cent, or 0.4 percent, to $1.0725 a pound. The price has dropped 5.7 percent in the past year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in Chicago
Ottawa to pay $50-million for swine cull
>>>Ethanol is an especially twisted form of Hades. I distinctly recall it being mentioned in the book of Revelations right before the seven horsemen of the Apocalypse. <<<
The Canadian Press
April 14, 2008 at 1:49 PM EDT
EDMONTON — The federal government will pay Canada's struggling pork producers $50-million to kill off 150,000 pigs by the fall — 10 per cent of the industry's breeding herd.
The animals are to be destroyed at slaughter plants and on pig farms in what experts are calling an unprecedented cull.
The Canadian Pork Council says the vast majority of the meat will be used for pet food or disposed of, although a small percentage will go to food banks.
Producers who accept federal compensation must agree to cull all of the pigs in a breeding barn and not restock for three years.
Pork Council spokesman Martin Rice says the industry has been hit hard by low prices, rising feed costs, the high value of the Canadian dollar and new country-of-origin labelling rules for meat products that are to go into effect in the United States this year.
There are about 10,000 pork producers in Canada — mainly in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24497092
Potash now looking at $1,000 a ton (Bloomberg)
Agrium, Potash, Mosaic Set Records on Outlook, China (Update1)
By Christopher Donville
April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Agrium Inc., North America's third- largest crop-nutrient maker, and two rivals rose to records in U.S. and Canadian trading after Russian producer OAO Uralkali said potash prices may surpass $1,000 a metric ton this year.
Agrium jumped C$4.90, or 6.7 percent, to C$78.09 at 4:15 p.m. on the Toronto Stock Exchange after earlier touching an all-time high $78.25. The shares have advanced 67 percent in the past year as crop-nutrient prices rose and fertilizer producers sought to keep pace with expanding demand.
Potash, a form of potassium, may reach $1,000 a ton ``rather fast'' because world output trails demand by 1.2 million tons, Oleg Petrov, sales chief for Berezniki, central Russia-based Uralkali, told investors today on a conference call. A price topping $1,000 a ton would be a fivefold increase from 2007. Both Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Mosaic Co. set new highs.
Agrium, which sells potash and other nutrients, also gained after UBS AG analyst Brian MacArthur raised his price target on the Calgary-based company's New York-traded shares by 9.2 percent to $95, citing higher fertilizer prices. MacArthur also lifted his target for Potash Corp., the largest maker of crop nutrients, by 11 percent to $235 a share.
Potash and other nutrient prices will rise after China imposed duties of 100 percent or more on phosphate and urea exports, Toronto-based MacArthur said today in a note to clients.
``Panic will likely continue to unsettle the market'' for potash, MacArthur said. He rates Agrium shares ``buy.''
Price Forecast
MacArthur also forecast phosphate prices to surpass $1,100 a ton, to $1,105 this year. Urea, potash and phosphates are all used to make fertilizers.
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp. rose C$2.66, or 1.5 percent, to close at a record C$185.35 in Toronto after earlier reaching $188.02. MacArthur also rates Potash shares ``buy.''
Mosaic, North America's second-largest producer of crop nutrients by market value, rose $4.79, or 3.9 percent, to close at a record $126.40 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Mosaic, based in Plymouth, Minnesota, touched an all- time high $127.78 earlier in the session.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at cjdonville@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: April 14, 2008 17:19 EDT
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http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24497216
US vs. China:
“Peking Inflation”
As you read this month’s report, don’t forget the context; our systematic approach to
investing in businesses. We must find businesses trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
To obtain a conservative estimate of that value, we need to have confidence that the
return on equity we adopt as the future businesses performance can be sustained. To
determine if it can be sustained, one of the things we need to know is whether the
business faces headwinds or is enjoying tailwinds. Forming a view on which companies
have bright prospects is dependent on forming a view on whether their customers will
prosper. And prosperity to some degree is dependent on your geographic location.
As you will find out if you are selling your products to a US retailer, you may find it
tougher than if you are selling cotton, wheat, coal or uranium to China. That latter
business won’t even know there is a recession in the United States.
In December I travelled to New York and Miami – the former to attend John Schwartz’s
Value Investors’ Conference and the latter, ground zero for the sub-prime crisis,
mortgage stress and house price declines.
In Florida, we talked to locals, retirees literally sunning themselves on South Miami
Beach, a couple of billionaires and every business owner who wanted to have a chat to an
Aussie with a desire to find out what is really going on.
It was from that visit that we could see the US was already in a recession. Housing, auto
manufacturing and financial institutions were reporting numbers quite different to the US
government’s aggregate statistics. We also formed the view that the depth of the credit
crisis was being underestimated. The visit confirmed our view that the problems facing
the United States cannot be reversed in a couple of months.
When Americans travel, they often comment about being harangued by beggars. I felt
exactly the same way at Miami Airport, only the beggars had uniforms, worked a full day
ferrying your luggage and hoped for tips. The appearance of full employment had been
created but we saw literally hundreds of ‘working’ unemployed. These individuals had
low purchasing power already and any increase in prices of food, petrol or services would
serve to only reduce their purchasing power further.
We marveled however at the low prices for virtually every consumer item and were
stunned by the ubiquity of the ‘Made in China’ label. When you are being paid 6 pesos
an hour (sorry, I meant to say US dollars) you absolutely must have low prices. Even
Australian wine was significantly cheaper than the same product here. Think about that;
Australian dirt, Australian water, Australian grapes, Australian packaging, shipping half
way around the world and yet cheaper than the same product locally.
To ensure low prices, the US has been trading off the goodwill it has built over the last 50
years. But I couldn’t help feeling the accountants should think about an impairment
charge against that goodwill. For as long as I can remember, winning a customer in the
US was branded ‘lucrative’ and your business was described as having hit the ‘big time’.
Succeeding in New York, Manhattan and Los Angeles still brings with it a certain cache
but I wonder how long before it is replaced with Shangai, Beijing and Guangzhou.
Last week I returned from a self-funded trip - this time to China. The contrast to the US
trip could not have been starker.
What first impressed me were the modernity and scale. Train stations that made Sydney
International Airport look like a rural hub and a transport system that rendered the
architects of Sydney’s system seem woefully under-qualified. Bullet trains travelled at
400km/hr, the ports - filled with containers arriving and leaving - looked like cities from
the air and spread out from the water’s edge like the tentacles of urban sprawl.
I travelled an hour along an eight lane freeway (eight lanes in each direction!) and saw
nothing but high rise apartments and office towers.
I realised I was witnessing the industrialisation of a country and the planning of cities all
at the same time. John’s Batman’s journal entry on 8 June, 1835; “this will be the place
for a village” was followed in 1841 by a formal incorporation of the town of Melbourne,
the reservation of land for public parks and Robert Hoddle laid out the grid upon which
Melbourne was built. What is going on today in China is no different. It’s just the scale
and the pace that varies from what people must have witnessed in Melbourne in the mid
1800’s.
China’s economic growth is the fastest in recorded world history and at street level it is
palpable. Building construction continued to the horizon (on the days I could see the
horizon) and while my first thought was ‘speculative bubble’ I remain cognisant of the
fact that 500 million rural Chinese are expected to move into the cities over the next 20
years. These people will need cars, appliances, heating, electricity and food and lots of it.
Indeed all these buildings – offices, apartments, factories, wholesale markets, exhibition
centres, ports, tunnels and roads and far too many casinos – to service a population of
1,500 million people will need power just to keep the lights on.
I marveled at the demand for energy that will be required even after all the nation-
building is done – and that alone is going to take decades. Uranium, oil, thermal coal and
when that all runs out, wind and solar will all enjoy their very long day in the sun. While
I was there, two European car manufacturers announced they had increased production
by 15% in a month to meet rising demand from ‘emerging’ markets. Once these cars are
sold, they will need fuel to power them on top of the fuel required to manufacture them.
While I was there the government was also musing publicly about mandating more
holidays, which you could take only if you travelled domestically.
China’s wealth has been built on being the western world’s contract manufacturer but I
noticed a growing number of brands in which the owners, store staff and customers took
great pride in the ‘Made in China’ label. Brands like Shanghai Tang and 361 could cut it
against Abercrombie & Fitch, Adidas and Puma on the global stage and reflect the
development of intellectual property upon which higher returns on equity can be
sustained.
People were driven, eager to help and nothing was too hard. Mao’s ‘serve the people’
mandate remains entrenched despite the enthusiastic adoption of the more selfish
capitalist model. Everyone displayed entrepreneurial spirit. Even the two homeless men
who were pointed out to me by my interpreter were each reading the business pages of
the local newspaper.
For the Chinese, the US isn’t in recession. For many Chinese, the US doesn’t even exist.
You could see it in shopping malls. The European stores were bigger drawcards than US
brands although KFC and McDonalds were ubiquitous. When the Chinese middle class
can afford to purchase their own value-added output, the currency can rise significantly
without a detrimental impact on aggregate manufactured output from the likely decline in
exports.
While the western world has feasted in China’s exported deflation, unfortunately we will
soon see the reverse. As any stationary importer can tell you, China has already begun to
export inflation (internal inflation at over 8% is at a 12-year high) and the impact on
Australian businesses will be magnified as their currency appreciates.
On top of this is a snowballing financial crisis as well as a global food crisis. Add an oil
crisis in the next decade and you have a challenging environment in which to invest.
I will make one final observation. I spent a day in the Special Economic Zone of Macao
and while I enjoyed the Portuguese-inspired food, it was the scale once again – this time
in the casinos – that bowled me over. I visited the Venetian Casino which opened in
August last year as part of the Macao “mega-tourism” development. Its website
understates the grandeur: “The Venetian Macao boasts the world’s biggest casino (some
600,000 square feet of gambling space, about five times the size of your state-of-the-art
Vegas gaming floor), 3,000 hotel suites and acres of swimming pools, 850,000 square
feet of shopping, a 15,000-seat showroom, and a 1.2-million-square-foot convention
center.”
I should remind you that all of this was inside a building, with ceilings, carpets,
powerpoints and halogen lights. I should also add an international soccer field is about
77,000 square feet.
In 2004 China’s power consumption was 2050 billion kWh more than 10 times
Australia’s total consumption. Per capita statistics however reveal that each person in
China consumed just 1590 kwh. Australians, in the same year individually consumed
11,200 kWh, (Amercians 13,500 kWh each and India 457 kWh each).
At Clime we are continuing to invest in those businesses that offer bright prospects and a
substantial discount to intrinsic value. Our 51% cash weighting and the discussion above
should tell you something of what we think about the present market’s ability to offer
both.
Roger Montgomery
Clime Capital Limited
14 April 2008
After reading that john I feel like liquidating all my ag stocks on Monday and just add to my shorts :O)
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24490572
Hedge time along with ferts ?
I have my iceberg sells in @ 9.95 - 10.05 ;o) I thought you were on vacation ?
I bet that the Chinese gov is thinking hard on that
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24472201
utube on Tibet .. not from western media...
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24480995
I dunno... we have no idea what kind of telekinetic powers he might have :O)
Yes I think it happened pretty suddenly...
here..
LOL now my day is complete... I missed on adding 5K yesterday @ .54... was too busy to set up orders this AM... aw well.. I've a nice enough stash...
RAY Rockets without Red LOL
Jubak's Journal4/8/2008 12:01 AM ET
Food-crunch 'fix' won't work
The answer to the world's food-supply squeeze isn't to ban or curtail exports (though that's being tried). The short-term solution lies in seed and fertilizer. Investors, take note.
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By Jim Jubak
Starve thy neighbor.
It leaves something to be desired as moral advice. It's pretty bad economics, too.
The recent decisions by Argentina, Russia, Vietnam and others to limit exports of wheat, rice and other grains won't stop runaway food inflation in those countries. It will, in fact, prolong today's global food-supply crunch. Speculators, however, are cheering because the less grain there is on world markets, the more hoarding and panic buying will drive prices higher.
The only long-run solution to the global shortage of grain and other foods is to increase supply. That's going to take lots and lots of fertilizers and other agricultural chemicals and new varieties of higher-yielding seed. Investors can count on an additional decade of good times for stocks such as fertilizer maker Potash of Saskatchewan (POT, news, msgs) and herbicide and seed giant Monsanto (MON, news, msgs).
If investors are very lucky, the current bear market might even deliver a sell-off in these shares that would provide a good entry point. But, unfortunately, share-price action of the past few months suggests that's unlikely.
Inflation by the slice
The likelihood that starve-thy-neighbor policies are going to drive up the price of grains and other foodstuffs isn't exactly good news, coming on top of stunning increases in grain prices.
On April 3, corn for May delivery closed at $6 a bushel; a year earlier, May corn closed at $3.46. That's a jump of 73%. In the same period, the price of a contract for soybeans for May delivery climbed to $12.57 a bushel from $7.63, an increase of 65%, and wheat soared to $9.35 a bushel from $4.20, a 123% gain.
No wonder my neighborhood pizza guy has raised his price for a plain cheese slice twice in the past two months by a total of 50% -- or that a baguette at my local bakery goes for 16% more than it did a month ago. Come to think of it, looking at the jump in prices on the commodities market, it's amazing that a slice costs only 50% more.
But while a jump in price like that is painful to me, food inflation is literally life and death for hundreds of millions in the world's developing countries. In February, food prices in China were up 23% from February 2007. In a year, the price of pork climbed 63%, vegetables 46% and cooking oil 41%.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24485258
how to they payoff if everyone sells Yep that's my point.. :O)
Area dependent... The West possible I guess but aren't prices already off... we didn't experience the same bubblisiousness here in Toronto in general except for a little silliness..Prices actually popped in my neighbourhood summer before last... After 11 years my house is a double and a bit but the folks that sold it to me lost 50% from their purchase price.. I caught a trough.
Don't see that business model working out in a crash... like bond insurers :o)
What happened to iHub... it's gotten all... er ... pretty...
As Prices Rise, Farmers Spurn Conservation
By DAVID STREITFELD
Out on the farm, the ducks and pheasants are losing ground.
Thousands of farmers are taking their fields out of the government’s biggest conservation program, which pays them not to cultivate. They are spurning guaranteed annual payments for a chance to cash in on the boom in wheat, soybeans, corn and other crops. Last fall, they took back as many acres as are in Rhode Island and Delaware combined.
Environmental and hunting groups are warning that years of progress could soon be lost, particularly with the native prairie in the Upper Midwest. But a broad coalition of baking, poultry, snack food, ethanol and livestock groups say bigger harvests are a more important priority than habitats for waterfowl and other wildlife. They want the government to ease restrictions on the preserved land, which would encourage many more farmers to think beyond conservation.
Kerry Dockter, a rancher in Denhoff, N.D., has about 450 acres of grassland in the program. “When this program first came about, it was a pretty good thing,” he said. “But times have definitely changed.”
The government payments, Mr. Dockter said, “aren’t even comparable anymore” to what he could make by working the land. He plans to devote some of his conservation acres to growing feed for his cows and some to grazing. He might also lease some land to neighbors.
For years, the problem with cropland was that there was too much of it, which kept food prices low to the benefit of consumers and the detriment of farmers.
Now, because of a growing global middle class as well as federal mandates to turn large amounts of corn into ethanol-based fuel, food prices are beginning to jump. Cropland is suddenly in heavy demand, a situation that is fraying old alliances, inspiring new ones and putting pressure on the Agriculture Department, which is being lobbied directly by all sides without managing to satisfy any of them.
Born nearly 25 years ago in an era of abundance, the Conservation Reserve Program is having a rough transition to the age of scarcity. Its 35 million acres — about 8 percent of the cropland in the country — are the big prize in this brawl.
Groups like Ducks Unlimited and Pheasants Forever want the government to raise rental rates to keep the same amount of land in the program or even increase it. While offering more money to farmers might be a difficult sell in a year of record farm profits, Jim Ringelman of Ducks Unlimited said, “There are overriding environmental issues here.”
The bakers and their allies have a different set of overriding issues: high commodity prices. The rising cost of feed is hurting ranchers, the rising cost of corn is hurting ethanol producers and the rising cost of wheat is hurting bread makers.
“We’re in a crisis here. Do we want to eat, or do we want to worry about the birds?” asked JR Paterakis, a Baltimore baker who said he was so distressed at a meeting last month with Edward T. Schafer, the agriculture secretary, that he stood up and started speaking “vehemently.”
The Paterakis bakery, H&S, produces a million loaves of rye bread a week. The baker said he could not find the rye flour he needed at any price. That gives him two unwelcome options: close half of his operations starting in July, or experiment with a blended flour that will yield a different and possibly less-than-authentic rye bread.
Such problems were never contemplated when the Conservation Reserve was conceived as part of the 1985 Farm Bill. Participants bid to put their land in the program during special sign-ups, with the government selecting the acres most at risk environmentally. Average annual payments are $51 an acre. Contracts run for at least a decade and are nearly impossible to break — not that anyone wanted to until recently.
“Older farmers put their land in the program rather than renting to a younger farmer or selling,” said Dale Schuler, who grows wheat in Fort Benton, Mont. That made it difficult for farmers who wanted to expand as well as farm equipment dealers, supply co-ops and other services, which suffered declines in business.
“It’s certainly been a polarizing issue,” Mr. Schuler said. “Half the people love it and half the people hate it.”
While few urban dwellers ever heard of Conservation Reserve, it found support among two important constituents: hunters had more land to roam and more wildlife to seek out, with the Agriculture Department estimating that the duck population alone rose by two million; and environmentalists were pleased, too. No one disputes that there are real environmental benefits from the program, especially on land most prone to erosion.
The program peaked late last summer, with more than 400,000 farmers receiving nearly $1.8 billion for idling 36.8 million acres. Put all that land together and it would be bigger than the state of New York.
The group doing the most to undermine this amiable coexistence is the farmers themselves. Last fall, when five million acres in Conservation Reserve came up for renewal, only half of them were re-entered. While the program has gained some high-priority land in the last few months, in part from an initiative to restore bobwhite quail habitats, the net loss is still more than two million acres.
That is just the beginning, warns Ducks Unlimited, a politically potent organization with more than half a million members in the United States. Ducks Unlimited is concerned about the three-quarters of a million acres of grassland that were removed from the program last year in the so-called duck factory in the Upper Midwest.
“We foresee a dramatic reduction,” said Mr. Ringelman, a conservation director for the association.
Ardell Magnusson, a farmer in Roseau, Minn., shows the changing mood. He said the program was “a godsend” when he put 300 of his 2,300 acres into it eight years ago. “I needed some guaranteed income or my banker was going to tell me to find another occupation,” Mr. Magnusson said. It is not exactly a bonanza: he gets about $12,000 a year.
He calculates he can make more than that by farming sunflowers or wheat or soybeans. When his contract expires in two years, he plans to withdraw about half his land. It would not be a shock if the Agriculture Department cut him loose sooner. “Another nine months of wheat at today’s prices and there will be political pressure on this program like you wouldn’t believe,” Mr. Magnusson said.
That pressure is exactly what the bakers and their allies are aiming for, saying the Conservation Reserve costs taxpayers and hurts consumers.
“This program is taking money out of your pocket twice a day,” said Jay Truitt, vice president for government affairs for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. “Do you think it’s right for you to pay so there’s more quail in Kansas?”
The cattlemen and bakers argue that farmers should immediately be allowed to take as much as nine million acres out of the Conservation Reserve without paying a penalty, something they say would not harm the environment.
“The pipeline for wheat is empty,” said Michael Kalupa, a bakery owner in Tampa, Fla., who is president of the Retail Bakers of America. Mr. Kalupa said the price he paid for flour had doubled since October. He cannot afford to absorb the cost and he cannot afford to pass it on. Sales have been falling 16 percent to 20 percent a month since October. He has laid off three employees.
Among farmers, the notion of early releases from conservation contracts is prompting sharp disagreement and even anger. The American Soybean Association is in favor. “We need more food,” said John Hoffman, the association’s president.
The National Association of Wheat Growers is against, saying it believes “in the sanctity of contracts.” It does not want more crops to be grown, because commodity prices might go down.
That is something many of its members say they cannot afford, even with wheat at a robust $9 a bushel. Their own costs have increased, with diesel fuel and fertilizer up sharply. “It would decrease my profit margin, which is slim,” said Jeff Krehbiel of Hydro, Okla. “Let’s hurt the farmer in order to shut the bakers up, is that what we’re saying?”
Mr. Krehbiel said his break-even last year was $4 a bushel. This summer it will be $6.20; the next crop, $7.75.
In the struggle between those who would shrink the program and those who would bolster it, the Agriculture Department is leaning toward the latter. When Mr. Schafer spoke recently before wildlife and hunting groups in Phoenix, he opened the door to significantly raising rents on new land.
Randy Schuring, a dairy farmer with 200 acres in the program, said there was no possible solution that would make everyone happy.
“If the government lets the land out and then crop prices fall, that’s going to hurt a lot of farmers,” said Mr. Schuring, whose farm is in Andover, S.D. “If it doesn’t let the land out and prices keep going up, that will hurt a lot of consumers. If only we had a crystal ball.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/09/business/09conserve.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
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http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=24638&msgnum=874&batchsize=100&batchtype=Next
Potash suppliers fully booked without China purchases
Reuters, Wednesday April 9 2008
* Global grain price surge due to structural changes
* Potash suppliers fully booked without China purchases
* ICL seeks new acquisitions
The surge in global grain prices and subsequent jump in fertiliser prices reflect structural changes in the market rather than a bubble, Israel Chemicals Chief Executive Akiva Mozes said.
The boom in grains is fueled by enhanced standard of living in developing countries such as China and India, which has boosted food consumption.
"We don't believe this will go back. This is a structural change," said Mozes.
Other structural changes are a boost in consumption of grains for animal feed as wealthier people in these countries consume more meat, as well as increased use of biofuels.
"We could say the market is very tight, there is not enough fertiliser to meet demand so the prices for fertilisers will keep going up," Mozes said. "We need to see a change in the supply curve to cope with growth in demand."
Israel's second-biggest company listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with a market value of $20.7 billion, ICL has benefitted tremendously from higher demand and prices for its potash and phosphate fertilisers.
Its sales reached a record $4.1 billion in 2007 and net profit jumped to a record $535.6 million while its share price doubled in the past year.
INDIA CONTRACT
ICL, which produces about 10 percent of the world's potash, benefits from exclusive concessions to extract minerals from Israel's Dead Sea. It also mines phosphate rock in the Negev Desert and potash and salt from mines in Spain and the UK.
Painted Pony PPY.A on the TSX venture.. Canadian Bakken play..
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24479840
Morningstar on POT: Buy
7-Apr-08 08:29 pm Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc.
Fair Value $270
Consider Sell $405
Valuation
We're raising our fair value estimate to $270 per share
from $152. This increase stems largely from substantially
higher unit price and gross margin assumptions for
phosphates and potash. Our nitrogen price and margin
assumptions remain largely unchanged from our prior
valuation. With grain prices at or near historical highs and
fertilizer producers' inventories at or near historical lows,
the firm has managed to continue to increase prices at a
rate far in excess of our prior expectations. The firm's
price hikes have continued to gain momentum as it
recently pushed through sizeable increases for potash to
key export customers in India and Southeast Asia, and the
rapidly rising cost of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid
has placed further upward pressure on global prices as
marginal producers seek to recover these rapidly
escalating variable costs.
We think average potash selling prices should increase
substantially over the near term as supplies remain tight
and lofty grain prices continue to provide growers the
means to absorb rising input costs. We also expect that
PCS will be able to negotiate substantially higher pricing
with China in 2008 and beyond, as this key customer
continues to face rising demand and dwindling
inventories. Strong pricing and profitability in nitrogen and
phosphates should also continue for some time as demand
growth continues at a rate in excess of growth in new
supplies. We use a 9% cost-of-equity assumption in our discounted cash-flow model. A 1-percentage-point
increase in this key assumption would bring our fair value
down to $227, while a 1-percentage-point decrease would
raise it to $332.
anyone buying RAY here ? .55
yeah API kept half it's gains to
well not all :o)
Yeah nice to see a spinoff that does evaporate out of the gate :O)
Was looking @ that... Always bothers me though when volume is smokin' and price barely budges..
LOL...
Potash and coal ...
Yes Goldman calling for 225 : but I saw one last week for 250..
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24475193
Oh that's better :O)
no one talking about SCP :O) off its high of the day though...
Red I sense some hesitation in your post... your weeeeeee is only
lower case :O)
coming and going ...
Those three guys @ 4.00 should just bump the ask to 6.25 and let us roll :O)
ooops make that 2 guys...