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When everybody's here screaming "to the moon!" I usually switch to DUST. I haven't changed my mind from the last week. Gold already had a decent run and is now hitting heavy resistance. I'm only back to NUGT when that breaks.
Gold would have to break $1300 and stay there. I'm just betting the more probable option (subjectively) from the technical point of view. I think gold pulls back to at least $1260 and NUGT below $9.
GDX very strong but it's going to give up soon. NUGT should be in low $10 already.
Very nice article about the current situation in miners:
http://energyandgold.com/2017/04/14/precious-metals-sector-poised-for-correction/
BTFD - buy the fucking dip
So after the insane Trump Rally we have a little S&P correction and suddenly it's a big event. I'm 100% sure it will get BTFDed pretty soon.
We're at 2011-2017 resistance. IMO people waiting for $15 NUGT are going to get an ugly surprise. It's too early to break this line yet. I'm in DUST, although I should be in JDST it seems...
Three things:
1) As others have already said, this move is (geo)politically driven.
2) GDX gain is very small given the vertical move in gold.
3) Gold is hitting resistance that goes from the 2011 top.
The last time this happened was when Trump won the election. I don't have to say what followed. I expect the same this time. A big hammer will fall on gold today or tomorrow unless Trump fires some rockets.
No, actually I had a very bad day yesterday. I had an appointment and I couldn't be at the computer most of the time so I set a stop at $9.53 and a limit just below $10. I was stopped almost at the LOD and I was hoping to reenter today after jobs report would have done its damage. Tough luck.
I should've known that when they show images of killed children in TV they want to prepare society for some action like accepting more immigrants in Europe and now military action in Syria.
GLTA!
You're right but this one is the most relevant right now. I read your posts and I've seen your charts.
Yeah, I've been waiting for GDX to break this for too long. Fortunately, I managed to flip a few times this week.
Exactly 2 weeks ago after the rate hike, GDX closed at $22.98, that is, the same level as now...
“it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect... Indeed, at our meeting later this month, the [Federal Open Market] Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate." - Yellen
As I said, jobs report and CPI are things to watch for.
I would normally sell on a day like this but given the fact that chances for a rate hike are reportedly 90% now, Yellen may have little impact today unless she's uber dovish.
I'm not saying it will reverse here, just that if it won't then I see no bottom. We have FED speeches today so arguably it's not the best day for a rebound but next week will tell.
If jobs report next Friday is awful then we'll have >20% day here EASILY.
If today's not a loading station then nothing is.
DXY knocking on 102 level pretty hard, not good.
It was also a non-event a year ago. The only significant FOMC meetings right now are in March, June, September and December.
The last hike dragged gold down even though RSI was below 35 for two months. It's never priced-in 100%.
I'm wondering whether to hold overnight. DXY seems to be taking a trajectory down but who knows. Another FOMC member talking AM...
I didn't expect anything above $9.5 today. So good to be wrong.
There may be a small bounce but nothing big until FOMC meeting IMO, unless there's a dismal report like jobs report in June last year. Check June 3rd 2016 on GDX chart.
Miners with an awful performance so far. If gold drops some more we're going to visit low $8.
Miners struggling. We're going lower.
And DXY is near 102 level, which should provide at least some resistance.
Thanks, I'm also not trading NUGT with a huge amount of money. I have a pool of money specifically for trading such risky instruments as 3x ETFs. I was caught by the unusual behavior of miners with respect to gold price and I'm left with shares bought at $11.96. If it goes lower I'll buy some more but not much.
Good luck!
After the big drop NUGT seems to be trading on par with gold. I'll probably sell if it goes to $11 soon. I think we'll see gold lower before FOMC meeting.
They do better both ways. Yesterday JNUG was down like ~29%.
I'm thinking $15 but after FOMC meeting with "no hike" decision.
Trump and 3 FOMC members speaking today. Another wild ride?
That's absolutely not true. No earnings this week. So this was late response to earning reports from a week and two weeks ago? That doesn't make sense at all.
From what I observed the last 1,5 year is that rate hike chances play a great role short-term in this trade. We've seen the same in March last year until Yellen said "no hike". That's my explanation of today's move.
We're trading here NUGT, not GDX. Let me bold what Greenspad said:
"It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection."
You can go broke with NUGT until gold reaches $2000-3000. Long term means nothing for NUGT.
However gold looks long term, it doesn't mean anything for NUGT. I've been hearing bullshit about Donald Trump gold bugs gabinet, muslim gold bugs, China gold bugs and now Greenspan a goldbug. It doesn't mean ANYTHING for this trade. It's all bullshit. March rate hike chances bounced and we're down as it was in the past.
I'm still in $11.98 like a sucker. I'm not buying more. As I said last week, everything looks bad for gold, but this move was violent, so we may see a rebound. No $15 NUGT until FOMC meeting IMHO.
At long last we have a ~20% day, just the other way.
RDP: You've been doing this much longer than I do. Explain to me, please, how is it that we're 10s when 11s were gone?
OK, so this is why:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-27/out-blue-march-rate-hike-odds-soar-cycle-highs
FED can always fuck you up.
I should've sold this turd like I said last week. Oh well, another experience not to rely on hopium.