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Huh? AVXL was at $5.15 last Monday and it's $5.33 today at close. That's an .18 net gain. If we could get .18/week I'd be thrilled. In a year this would be a $13 stock.
From what source will Anavex receive this revenue in three months? Seems highly optimistic and significantly unlikely, even by the most conservative of estimates, unless you are referring to revenue received from selling more shares?
I like to sell covered calls. Easy way to capture some upside with minimal risk, just set the strike for a price where I'd be happy to sell anyway and the worst case scenario is I sell shares at a price I'm okay with. Easy $$$ and most of the time I keep my shares.
Anavex had nothing to do with this decision. The cost of running a trial during a pandemic was not worth the profit potential of a Rett drug. As the memo said, the data was blinded and had no bearing on the decision to end the trial. Profitability matters more.
It's good news for Anavex and its shareholders but terrible news for the Rett community because there's no guarantee either of the two remaining candidates will receive FDA approval, though both look promising.
iHub is a terrible metric for determining stock price value. There's a reason you'll never see the words "InvestorsHub" in any of Buffett's shareholder letters.
I'd suggest CAPM or Dividend Discount Model for easy guidelines of established companies, or for early stage biotechs like Anavex, a risk-adjusted NPV using a 10-25% discount rate depending on whether the biotech is in early, middle, or late state growth.
Most posts are for entertainment value only. It's a giant puzzle and all the posters here are looking for the next piece that fits. Every now and then someone will post something worthwhile that provides a clearer picture.
I am not familiar with Five Prime Therapuetics but its iHub activity or lack thereof should have zero bearing on its stock price. Same goes with Anavex.
I don't think Anavex will be presenting. I think CTAD was it. Now, it is on to the next round of trials for PDD and data release for Rett.
Short covering is almost over.
I'm interested to see whether part of the drop has to do with Anavex selling shares to raise capital to fund future PDD trials?
Exactly
This is ridiculous. The data is the data. If missling is worried about daytraders he ought to be fired. Either the drug hit or missed its endpoints. If it missed its goodnight Anavex. I don’t think that’s the case but some people on Twitter with a good understanding of reading these reports seem to believe it to be so. Time will tell.
I hope your are right again. We'll see. It appears the market is not as optimistic but it may be short selling.
If it crashes, on good data, I'll buy more. The overall trajectory is that the progress is moving toward the end zone.
It may not be flashy but it's working. Each day is a day closer to finding out if A273 can pass the FDA's approval process. If it can, look out. If it can't, look out.
I expect some new data or insight. CTAD representatives have seen the data and they wouldn't have given a late-breaking spot if it wasn't worth anyone's time. Dr. Missling isn't going to CTAD to announce bad news. At worst it'll be repetitive, but then why the secrecy in the most recent PR?
All signs point to today being a good day for the company and its shareholders in terms of getting closer to scoring a touchdown. Whether today is a good day for traders, who knows. I think we see at least a 20-25% correction once the Presidential outcome has been decided, and AVXL may have picked the worst day to reveal important news.
I think with each data release fewer shares become available as people feel more confident holding even their trading positions.
I’ve still got all my 2015 shares in shoebox in the closet. Institutions can buy them from me after FDA approval, or ill use them as wallpaper in the storage shed with my other losers.
The cup has formed. Do we get a handle?
"Significance is also a function of standard deviation. The three factors are n, effect and stdev. So a small sample can give a significant finding by having a large effect or having tighter stdev."
Exactly what I was saying.
CTAD wouldn't be an appropriate venue for this data. I think most likely it will be the one in December.
Rett syndrome PR is now officially at bat.
That's true. I forgot about that.
Good article. Thanks for sharing.
I said the exact same thing about Missling not wanting to embarrass himself if the data were only marginally better than a placebo in post 276391.
Nothing wrong with devil's advocate perspective. A healthy dose of skepticism is important to maintain perspective of all possible outcomes.
Still, I don't think that Dr. Missling would bother to submit to a journal or want to present at a conference in any manner if he didn't feel the data merited public attention, and from that I can extrapolate that the data is probably pretty good.
It is strange that he didn't choose to announce the data though. My best guess is that he plans on tapping into the shelf offering soon and felt that showing all his cards now increases the likelihood of shorts taking positions, driving the price down, and forcing him to sell shares at a reduced valuation.
Correct. For those who decry the small N sample size, the point is valid. On the other hand, when a small sample size produces a sizable result, that is just as good if not better than having a smaller response with a larger sample population if you're trying to measure efficacy of a drug.
Gina Kolata and Denise Grady simply aren't aware of Anavex right now.
They respond to emails. If someone has the inclination to message them and tell them a bit about Anavex and how it has three ongoing trials, I'd be willing to bet one of them would write a story about it.
But who has time to actually let them know. Better to just let them find out with the rest of the masses, assuming the drug ends up working. Otherwise they'll be writing "Another drug candidate heads to the P3 graveyard." That's the story most people expect to read considering the share price is still under $5.
If A-273 is only marginally better than the placebo, as some are indicating based on the lack of data in yesterday's press release, why would Dr. Missling submit it for peer review and want to announce the data at a major science conference?
They'd be laughed at by their colleagues for basically going on stage and saying that A273 is just a little better than doing nothing at all.
That's the sort of data you put in a PR, accept whatever the stock market thinks, and push forward silently toward P3. You don't make a big deal of it. But it seems that Missling intends to make a big deal of this data.
To me, that seems like it's at least halfway decent. Read between the lines. Always.
I agree, to a point. Ultimately the only metric Wall Street will judge AVXL on is whether the FDA approves it or not. If it's good enough to get approved nobody is going to care what the delta is or isn't.
My guess is that Anavex wants to have the data peer-reviewed and published.
I'm more interested in what caused the delay than what the specific data metrics look like in P2. If the drug works, and it can pass a P3 approval, that's all that matters. Markets only care about approval or rejection, the degree to which a drug is successful or not isn't nearly as important.
The spike on 9/25 was due to the data PR and traders entering AVXL with the expectation of a PDD readout by 9/30. That didn't happen.
You're cherry picking data points. Use the standard 3 months or 6 months or whenever to gauge trends, it's more reliable that way.
It's either/or. I think many people are going to make a lot of money on this, but nobody knows right now if it will be the shorts or the longs.
I'm holding my core position but AVXL isn't a great trade at the moment.
It's no more specious than posting random trade sizes and times.
The Dow is up 3000 points since June. AVXL is down almost $1/share in that time span. That tells me Wall Street is moving its money out of Anavex and into other stocks. If conviction for positive results were as strong as many believe, we'd be seeing Anavex's stock price rising with the DJIA tide.
We both agree that something has happened in the last few weeks. And generally speaking when something happens and its met with silence, that something is not a good thing.
The problem is that people will associate whatever happens to PDD and Rett with Alzheimer's. And that's going to create a ton of dilution if Missling has to sell more shares at .55/each. This is probably why he wanted those blank check preferred shares. People thought they were for poison pill protection and they can be, but they can also provide a lifeline if a company gets too close to its authorized share limit and doesn't want to do another reverse split.
I don't know what the future holds for Anavex. This is a situation I've never seen before in my short history of trading biotech. The data seems to indicate that A-273 is going to be a smashing success. The CEO's behavior, on the other had, seems to indicate the opposite.
Price could also be holding to let the insiders exit. I've seen that happen a few time. Once they get out, price drops. Same thing with the opposite -- they keep the price down low so they can load, as has been suggested on this forum many times over the years.
The truth is that nobody has any idea except for the researchers. Any discussion of AVXL is merely speculation to pass the time. Missling has proven to not have a firm grasp of deadlines, but honestly after 5+ years it seems like the only ones who are impatient are those who are new to Anavex, or daytrading it and are frustrated their cash is tied up in a dead stock for the time being.
The data is most likely in by now, unless COVID played a role in creating delays. Missling appears to be waiting for Rett datal. Either the data for PDD is bad and he hopes to mitigate it with positive Rett data, or its good and he wants to announce a blockbuster PR that the drug works for both diseases and people will naturally assume it'll work for Alzheimer's too.
I don't agree with the strategy but my guess is we won't be getting a PDD readout for several more weeks, perhaps not until the beginning of 2021.
Just remember, that drug that failed in May 2020 did well enough in the trials leading up to it to give a lot of people hope and excitement, and that same fervor exists here. A lot of people thought while that other drug was in trials that it was a lock and it wasn't.
I hope for the sake of the kids that A-273 works. The data so far is promising. But talk about dominating the market is a bit premature when the odds are still incredibly stacked against us for approval with this disease. If it were easy, there'd already be an effective treatment.
Maybe because A273 works well in combination with Aricept? That's about all I can think of to answer it but I am not an MD or PhD
It's always possible the data is bad. To say otherwise is irresponsible because nobody except the researchers have any clue what the outcome will be. At best we can only speculate. I am hopeful the data will be positive but I have zero faith in Dr. Missling to be honest and I wonder if all his past reporting has been cherry picking from limited N size trials.
I understand delays sometimes happen but he seemed adamant that data would be reported by the end of the quarter, and he's repeatedly missed the mark with his estimates.
Is it possible the data is bad and that is why the results are being withheld? I have no idea. It is concerning though that Missling's timelines are consistently off.
Playing this as a trade is probably the safest route until a more competent CEO takes over, which I doubt will ever happen. But as you said Missling is trying to squeeze out as much money as possible without benefitting the shareholders. That's less than ideal.
Missling is a garbage CEO. Potentially blockbuster drug but the share price is being suppressed because investors don't care for the CEO's games.
Pretty common, actually. Missling will profit at the end of the day no matter what happens to AVXL. He's playing with house money.
I don't know much about SAVA's competing drug to A-273, but I can tell that SAVA has a significantly better CEO who is willing to make a large insider purchase -- something Missling has yet to do on a regular basis.
Xena, My charts don't show anything close to what you're saying, but I guess everyone sees patterns differently.
Not tomorrow.
I'm amazed you didn't say $100 / $200.
$10 is actually in line with my target price.
Congrats on the quick flip.
Your $3.99 sale price will either go down as one of the smartest stock decisions you made, or one of the worst, and each day we are a step closer to finding out which it will be.
You may be able to re-enter at $3.80 if more people lose patience.
I agree. I have no idea about Parkinson's data. I didn't invest in Anavex for Rett or Parkinsons or anything other than Alzheimers. My fear is that poor PDD or Rett results may be a canary in the coal mine for the Alzheimer's data but it works the other way too. If good data is released then people will presume the future data for Alzheimers will be good too.
I also don't put much stock in Dr. Missling, or his timelines. Most things take longer than planned and Dr. Missling has a habit of overpromising and underdelivering, time and again, to the point where I am surprised the market actually thought data would be released today?
No reputable company releases data on a financial conference call. The people attending today's meeting have a cursory background in science, at best. They're financial analysts, MBA and CFAs -- if Missling had revolutionary breakthrough data he would want to release it in front of MDs and PhDs.
So, I wouldn't be surprised to not get the data until there's another major Parkinson's conference. I also have to wonder how efficient the data processing is right now during this pandemic. If he said mid-year, was that before everything got crazy? As you all know I am far from a Missling apologist, but when it comes to deadlines during a pandemic even I think it's only fair to cut him some slack. He probably wouldn't have released the data on time anyway but at least now there's a valid excuse.
This is the same company today that it was yesterday, and the week before, and the year before. I still think its market cap is a bit overvalued at the moment, but what we say yesterday is just a small glimpse into how much this stock will move once Phase 3 data is released for Alzheimer's. Which direction it runs is anyone's guess but the stock is going to move sharply, and all today's price action is about is placing bets on who will be right, shorts or longs.
Over the next week? It just hit $3.72 today. It has a lot lower go to in the short term if people decide that maybe Missling doesn't have any good PDD data.
Today was a textbook case of false expectations. But I am not surprised based on what I've been reading. Nobody has. patience anymore.
I can only imagine what will happen if Dr. Missing reports that A273 doesn't work for PDD or Rett though.
Everyone is panicking because there is no Parkinson's data.
My guess is that the Parkinson's data just isn't very good. It is what it is. The good news is that this seems to do well with Alzheimer's patients. Seems like a good buying opportunity.
And there is the cliff I was talking about. Back to the $3s with a massive floor before the bounce.
Good luck.