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This message is mainly for hdgabor and Jessellivermore but anyone could reply.
Both of you have different thoughts (correct me if I am wrong) about Amarins future. HDgabor feels greatest value will be a buyout and JL feels it will be going it alone. Going it alone does open up challenges but if it pans out the numbers are staggering especially when you add in all the indications this drug could eventually be approved for.
HDGabor when do you think a buyout would occur and at what price per share? Why do you feel it is a greater value for us over going it alone? As I said if I am wrong with this assumption please let me know.
JL if Amarin goes it alone where do you see the shares 3 yrs, 6 yrs and 10 yrs from now?
Thanks.
ps I originally bought the stock Dec 2010 and didn't look at it as a long term investment. That has certainly changed. I bought most shares in my retirement account and at the time was in my early 40's. I have averaged down since and more than doubled my position, the new shares I bought in personal account. I have just over 50000 shares at an average price of $4.60.
thinking zumantu post 96609 may have something to do with it also
raf I am curious did you have a specific reason to start taking vascepa such as trigs being high or did you start taking it to just start feeling better.
okay I understand, can you answer me this:
if any of these rumors where actually true would it be a game changer for the stock?
care to elaborate on rumors floating around?
funny how you thought at 60% no stop and jl thought stop and at 80% you think a good chance for stop and jl thinks it goes till the end....
Am I right that you didn't expect a stop at 60%?
When the 80% interim look was announced coupled with the raise of $ by the company I thought it was highly unlikely that this was stopping at the 60% read. remember that the fda and amarin agreed upon the 60% read back when the trial started which was 5 plus years ago. A lot can change in that time.
So why did the fda and amarin agree on an 80% read. I find it very interesting as when you think about the money, resources and time that is needed to do the read it must have some merit. By the time the 80% read is finished and if it is not stopped we will literally be within months of the end of the trial. Then they will have to go thru the whole process again.
that is why I think the 80% will be the end all. just my opinion of course
Jl didn't you state in a prior post a while back that amarin management would love this to go to the 80% look as the results would be much better and it could also prove other indications such as t2 diabetes ? why do you sound so depressed. I understand that a stop would of been great but couldn't this be a blessing for the future?
yes I would also like to hear your thoughts at 80% look and if not stopped then what overall chances of success is if we go to completion from HDG,jl and chas...thanks
100% agree...I have learned so much from certain posters JL especially. A shame he was blocked at al in my opinion
that is a good question that I really have no answer for. I am just going off of what I believe was said in a recent conference call...Anyone have a response that may help with this
pretty sure in a recent conference call management said that things are progressing very closely to what they had expected so that is reason enough to assume the futility is not an issue
market doesn't seem to think it is huge news
looking for some help here, my father is 73 and having some health issues. one of the issues is inflammation in his ankles/legs. I think vascepa may help him. Does anyone have a comment on that and if so some literature I could give my dad to show his doctor...thanks
I find it hard to believe they are looking at 15% rrr as the number. I believe they are thinking a lot higher but have to tone it down and be cautious
okay mog settle down and take your vascepa so you don't have a heart attack
ta or not price is starting to increase so that's all that matters....and fly has been right in that matter so be happy about it
Thanks. In the meeting did you get any indication which was Amarin is leaning, to appeal or not to appeal?
BB,
I sent amarin IR an email today to see if they will pursue an anchor appeal with no response yet. have you asked them if they have any plans to do this and if so what response did you get?
agree too much info you provide us to leave...thanks
okay thanks
I thought the analysis of the data was 6 weeks or so, why 6 months? also my interpretation of this pr is that they are fully enrolled but not at the interim yet am I wrong?
Wait until the doc sees the results in a few months and that may change his thinking
BB
Explain to me why the judge won't approve this as the headlines today says Amarin reached settlement terms so doesn't that mean Amarin has agreed with what the FDA is offering? If so why would the judge deny the agreement?
Okay thanks
FF
Can you elaborate by what you mean by chart action? What will you be looking for to make your decision. Thanks
agree, kiwi thinks he will save .40 a share on his buy, who knows maybe he will but I wouldn't chance it....
Fair enough, my thinking is this will all work out in the end so why chance an interim halt. Anyways good luck to you. My real point in this is that we know where you stand so you don't need to repeat it nearly everytime you post. Thanks
Kiwi
I am hoping for an interim stop but am prepared for this to go to completion as I believe this will be a home run either way. I don't get your rationale. The stock is in the middle 1's. If you are looking to truly get in your risk reward price wise is much better now. If it isn't halted this may go down to close to 1 but if it is halted you may not get in in single digits. Doesnt make much sense to me unless you just post to hear yourself talk
Then the million dollar question is how does Amarin provide its product to this type of demand??? Some partnership needs to be made as no way they can do it
100% agree
Thanks for the response. I appreciate it. I did ask you earlier what clues you got from the CC that you said others may not have picked up on. Do you mind sharing with us?
It just struck me as odd that your post says it is too close to call at this point. Not asking for predictions but it seems like you have always been rather confident this could/would be stopped at interim. Just wondering if something recently has caused you to take a step back and reconsider things. Anyways thanks for your posts learned a lot from you.
FYI this is golf stud sending from my iPad
haven't you gone on record saying the trial will be halted at interim for overwhelming efficacy? Are you beginning to change your mind?
care to tell us what important information you got from the call?
Except your average price per share is much better then mine. I am low 5's for average price. I have been buying at 2000 share intervals lately in the middle 1's to lower my cost basis. pretty much done buying anymore shares.
I agree, I have over 40000 shares and if it gets to anywhere around 20 I would have to really take a hard look at things. I envision selling 10000 shares to cover my investment and then let the rest ride. Then as the share price rises sell additional shares until I get to a point I don't want to be in the stock anymore. Who knows when that will be time will tell
If this pans out as JL thinks it will you will have an opportunity to sell at a price that makes you a lot of $ as the stock price will go up. The ones willing to hold will make the big $.
I am not gullible, basically calling out Ray that he is not being truthful