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I agree that Woodford has a lot of resources at his disposal. He is one of the primary reasons I added more shares. However, collaboration with BP would provide a level of validation on the scientific side of the equation that Woodford alone doesn't offer. In addition, collaboration with BP would likely convince other large scale investment firms to dive in (think Baker Brothers).
Thanks Flipper. Let me just make sure I understand your answers.
1. "We do not have patient to patient profile" = unknown
2. "Diagnosed rate of progression is not given" = unknown
3. There are "hints" at what the life expectancy was for a few of the patients, but ultimately all we know is that part of the enrollment was completed under > 3 months criteria and another portion was > 6 months. Quite different from the < 6 months someone else speculated. Bottom line, this is also = unknown
4. "The method used for the longest survivors is not given" = unknown
Good job!
I wholeheartedly agree. I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade. NWBO is one of the most exciting up and coming biotech's in the market, thus my large (in my portfolio) investment. Direct Phase 1 gave us a glimpse of what the phase 2 results might be (if the picture painted from the data turns out to be as bullish as some here believe).
To me, the ASCO presentation is too murky to draw strong conclusions on efficacy. I think any savvy biotech investor will tell you it is foolish to attempt such conclusions with any phase 1 data (due to opportunity for selection bias, lack of controls, etc.) However, if you combine the evidence from the specific patient case studies and the potentially positive scenarios from the presentations, there is a sufficient amount of "opportunity" for huge success in phase 2 to warrant continued investment.
We need a big pharma partner. They would have the opportunity to thoroughly vet the ASCO data to their satisfaction and this would be a huge validation to NWBO if it occurs. I'm doubtful it will, but it would be a very very pleasant surprise.
I remember the nickname and it always made me chuckle because I think you meant it as an insult, even though it is really what we all hoped for. Ready or not...
I have a similar strategy with my options. Another big factor is taxes. Depending on your financial situation, selling all of the in-the-money call options at expiration can lead to a large taxable short-term gain. Selling only enough to exercise the rest will postpone part of the taxable gain until you sell the shares that are received from exercising the options. If you plan on holding those shares for a long time (like I do if everything pans out the way we hope) the eventual taxable gain will also be treated as a long term capital gain at a lower rate. Depending on the size of your position, this can be a sizable tax advantage. Food for thought.
Oh and Go Hawks!!
I actually hold more now than ever before, but I am adequately protected to the downside. One of the cardinal sins of investing is becoming emotionally attached to your holdings. It becomes dangerous when you choose to only see what you want to see and ignore everything else (including warning signs that you would normally consider). Most people have to learn this lesson the hard way before it really becomes part of their ongoing investment strategy. I hope NWBO doesn't become such a lesson for certain people on this board. There are a couple of posters that I don't believe are struggling with this at all. Their vehemence seems to be rooted in something else.
No, I'm asking you to answer the questions I presented in #36269. Go ahead Flipper give it your best shot. FYI, it should only take you a few seconds to provide the correct answer to each question.
The tables haven't turned. I am still as skeptical as I always was. My biggest show of support remains my investment. I have been long a long time and don't plan to change that anytime soon.
I do find it interesting how some of the vocal longs here are so rigid in their bullish optimism and unwilling to admit any concerns, unknowns, or other possible scenarios that may not be so rosy. It's almost like they are on a mission to sing the praise of all things nwbo at all times. Reminds me of something I read once in an article by a guy named Pearson.
Swing trader? Well I've been called worse by better so.. Let me spell out my question for you. Do you agree with Beachlifeisfun's response in #36278 to my questions? Are any corrections necessary? Are there other possible explanations for 2,3, and 4. Please be straightforward and try to avoid straw men, diversions, or other side issues. Thanks!
So you are satisfied with all of Beach's answers? No need for any corrections? Do honesty or integrity mean anything to you? Nothing from you either, Flipper? Anyone here care about keeping a balanced perspective and correcting false information that is presented as fact? How about unknown information that is presented as conclusive? Maybe it's okay if it aligns with the bullish perspective?
Nice finish to a strong week. Also with the overall market a little jittery. If I were short, I would be nervous right now. But I would never be short a biotech without a hedge to the upside. I'm guessing the large short positions are protected.
A big IF. And since we don't know about enrollment, the length of time is meaningless. Unless you like options, then it is very meaningful.
Sure Senti.
1. What was the life expectancy of these patients?
2. What was the diagnosed rate of progression for these patients?
3. When did the trial life expectancy protocol change and how many A's and B's were under each protocol?
4. What is the mix of A's and B's still alive and which method was used for the longest survivors?
Maybe these are easy for you to answer since they have been asked so many times. Here I'll help. Unknown, unknown, unknown and unknown.
Just because we cannot answer the questions doesn't mean they shouldn't be considered along with the more bullish speculation that is rampant here. I like to be reminded of the unknowns just as often as the one sided positive speculation. Please don't ignore the fact that the answers to the questions above could completely change the outlook.
Just because questions are "responded to" doesn't mean they have been answered. If I agree they are valid questions what do you want me to "clean up?"
Some of the questions cannot be answered at this time. The point is that there is much left unknown and more uncertain than some here have speculated. My position is that the phase 1 results were 'interesting enough' to warrant further investigation in phase 2. That's good enough for me at this time. If we see mind blowing efficacy in phase 2, hang on for the ride of your life. And if not, you better have some of Pyrr's put options as a safety net.
So go ahead and brush them under the rug if that suits you. Here's a friendly tip for one of my favorite posters. If those questions were not legit, the price would be several multiples from where it is today. I'm choosing to take a glass half full approach to the recent Direct release, but there is plenty of ammo remaining for the skeptics. Validation by big pharma to explore combination therapy would do wonders for nwbo right now. Let's hope the "go big or go home" strategy doesn't interfere with the chance of a lifetime.
Did you get a sex change recently? All kidding aside, I do think you should stick around. Good questions.
Yes, and other sharks will be attracted to the blood in the water. Other hedgies/institutions/high net individuals will leverage the opportunity to pile on for a wild move up. This will come at the expense of the folks on the wrong side of the huge short bets and large put option positions. We just need something big to kick off the short squeeze. Now is the time for LP to lower the boom.
I shoulda, coulda, and dida at $9.65a..
Looking good! Timing is everything. Which catalyst will launch this? Germany HIE, L enrollment completion, 1st interim review, Direct collaboration with big pharma? Everything is primed and ready.
FYI, the $15 straddle was not initiated today. There was a lot of put activity today, particularly with the 15 July $7 and $9 strikes. It will be interesting to see what OI looks like tomorrow for those.
Hi TC. I am interested in your opinion on the current level of institutional interest in NWBO. Do you believe there has been an increase this year due to company progress/news, Woodford's investment, or other factors? What would it take to get the ball rolling on buy side coverage by one of the big firms? I appreciate any insight.
Still waiting for the major sell off you called for a couple days ago. Maybe you should check out the 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, or 1 year charts and see how they fit into your predictions.. I especially like the 6 month and 1 year charts myself.
Nope, actually I've always been long the science and short the management, but long the stock :)
So you are contending they obviously (nice authoritative statement from a position of ignorance BTW) changed the enrollment criteria during the phase 1 which essentially confounds the difference in efficacy between the activation methods.
However, in post #35462 you state, "with all the interest in the phase 1 DcVax-Direct trial, it would not be difficult for the NWBO sponsored study researchers to find and enroll select patients with the highest life expectancy and slowest progressing tumors they could find."
In post #35242 you write, "being stage IV does not automatically mean the cancer is swiftly progressing, and from MDA they had hundreds to select from."
So, with all of these patients to choose from, why in the world would they select anyone close to the 3 month minimum expectancy requirement? You are asserting that NWBO is cherry picking patients under the 6 mo. expectancy requirement, but didn't do so under the even lower 3 month minimum? Your argument has so many holes in it. Even a hack like me can quickly see that.
I've had a recent allergic reaction to a certain poster's BS and multiple attempts to confuse and spin encouraging data from the Direct trial.
Yes, very strange for someone who claims not to have a position here.
Most likely? Oh okay, guess I'll just take your word as the gosple truth.
Thank you for trying to protect us from ourselves.
I'm sure he meant to say writer. He can certainly make a decent case for whatever side he chooses or is paid to support.
Don't worry, you'll have plenty of time to critique the phase 2 and phase 3 trials and the subsequent improved data. As you well know, Phase 1 was primarily to verify safety and determine dosing & best activation method. Mission accomplished, the rest is gravy.
After all of your flip flopping, wouldn't it be ironic if L is stopped early for efficacy? If it is, I expect you'll tell the world that you loaded up on out of the money calls right before it happened. You are such an investing genius!
Thanks! Over the last year I have found your "opinions" to be very valuable contrarian indicators. The impeccable timing of your posts this year speaks volumes. It appears you, or the people you work for, are increasingly concerned as all of the dots are being connected.
We should see a follow-up Forbes article soon that will reach the masses. GL
AF's boss would be foolish to allow him to dig the hole any deeper. There is enough evidence that Direct may hold much more promise than AF ever expected. I think it will be wait and see from that camp.
Pretty exciting stuff!! Plans to expand phase 2 to other countries. Based on some of LP's connections, I feel like there may be a nice surprise.
I'm just surprised that the short interest has not significantly decreased this year with Woodford's major vote of confidence. The market cap has more than doubled, we have one of the most respected investors on the plant backing us, and short interest is nearly a million shares higher now than before Woodford emerged. Something doesn't smell right.
Anyone else find it concerning that some very big fish continue to place huge bets against NWBO's success. What do they know that we don't?
And at least it's Bosch presenting. So we should hear less about secret sauce, toast, and the need to "stay tuned"
If that's the case, it was well worth the cost of the booth.
I'm still waiting for the last pps collapse you predicted. Guess if you say the same thing over and over maybe eventually you'll be right. Doubt it though, Woodford has the shorts right where he wants them...again. July is right around the corner. Mmm..mmm look at all those puts about to expire worthless.
I haven't found any evidence that the DC Vax Direct trial is taking place in Switzerland.
I haven't seen that word used in conjunction with the Direct phase 2 trials at anytime before the 10k. Maybe I'm just paranoid, but it still seems like a legal loophole/potential escape clause to soften future reactions if a decision is made to forgo further Direct trials.
Do you plan to attend?