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returns, pretty simple ...
decent or better software engineering in the same room with bad management.
Investors weigh heavily the issue of the management team.
Scale of 1-10, and there is no doubt this is well below 5.
It is not a public company in the normal sense, investors know this, the shame is the compensation afforded to a simple rubber stamp.
The thing is entirely SKS' toy, period. He has some skills, he has some failings, and some of those failings are crucial. He cannot see the difference between something that is difficult, and something that he is just plain bad at. It is difficult to fix what one cannot see.
alea, even if Wave
somehow nails a big deal and knocks one over the fence,
one is still left with bad management of a flush treasury instead of bad management of an empty treasury.
All roads lead to management in the end, and no BigNewDeal will change the fact that they will reap the least from whatever gains are made.
This team doesn't maximize, they (in your words) destroy capital.
More capital doesn't suddenly make a person an able businessman.
alea, seems if that optimistic scenario plays out, the timeline doesn't allow for Q2>Q1 to the point of Q1 being a bottom. I don't see any of those items as revenue items less euro/health in the next two Qs. Obviously a large item (asteroid) takes that notion out, but it seems to me Q2 is Q1 (that is flat to off with continued OEM erosion) who knows with Q3, and Q4 often seems to be when the pull and asteroid (or at least a meteor) out of the pocket.
alea, it doesn't surprise me any more than the opposite would,
and I admittedly have not gone through the numbers more than just a glance. From previously I do recall some sort of 6k seat ERAS euro-thingy that supposedly booked Q1, and some other thingy's which seems to indicate to me that the underlying day-today stuff is just plain crumbling.
It seems they needs a massive sales team to sell peanuts, cash-flow has dictated they lose the massive sales team, and now they struggle to sell popcorn.
outside of the unsafe harbor I only see indications of folks bypassing TPM solutions (e.g. IF-MAP at Boeing, heck maybe they'll crank out one of those TCG case-studys this summer to illuminate the matter).
there is the whole convergence thingy, and if the pace of that accelerates considerably, one could see Wave products be seen as valuable to more.
alea, that is kinda what I was saying (or thinking) at least. So while the royalty restructure looked potentially good at first (lower TPM higher SED royalties with SED a much bigger ticket) what appears to be the case is simply one of lower royalties. Wave has the piece that loses money, Credant the piece that makes money. And that going forward the Wave bundle will eventually perish.
Dell gave Wave a good solid window to perform in, and Wave leveraged it to the max (bought SFND, developed scrambls and Knut or whatever it is).
Is there anything that would ever qualify as a bad CC? Anything?
It seems to me Dell is dropping out.
did't TVtonic
win awards too?, not that there are any other parallels
alea/barge,
NW's argument is one of stating that one last piece of supply (kinda robbing from alea here) is what is missing. This list of the missing piece of supply is a long one.
It may be true, perhaps it is an issue of supply and the correct constellation of supply has not existed, and the getting a TCG smartphone is the last piece of the puzzle. It certainly is an important part of a comprehensive solution, but there is a lot of solvable stuff on the table right now, and one might argue that those solutions lack demand.
Lost laptops have caused real measurable damage. Stopping that does not require upgrades in cell phone technology. LMT-RSA was not phished via smartphone.
short construct,
it is definitely the case that it is a boogey man that isn't fundamentally true. When the short interest in shares is rather steady, when oen factors in dilution (the denominator growing growing growing) short interest has been falling steadily for a long time.
The shorts are basically done making money off this thing and have moved on.
Barge, my pos twas in relation to my perception that folks seemed to be implying TPMs, TPM management and so on with the IF-MAP deployment in question.
I indicated that I believe that is not the case. I believe they are more likely using BHIs, while as mentioned in the end of the interview to which I was referring one could imagine a role for TPMs in the NIC as alluded to. But it is actually a different task than the one they seek to answer with IP-MAP (as I humbly see it).
A number of vendors service this area,
http://www.tofinosecurity.com/products/overview
FWIW I think WAVX is a buy now for a decent little 20% gain near term, but ICBW. I find it difficult to imagine that the folks in the last placement will not get treated well and suspect timing was chosen to guarantee their fair treatment.
This has nothnig to do with shareholders of record as of last Friday, but they do not matter. They vote like sheep and get their info on closed internet chat boards dedicated to herding sheep regardless of the facts on the ground.
tkc, were one to put a sympathetic spin on the pathetic proxy it would be of the notion that mgmnt seeks maximum flexibility, not that they are disregarding shareholders.
Imagine they they don't need to RS (mgmnt likely considers the reverse split highly unlikely), in that case, they need to raise the SAuth. I realize that your math shows how they supposedly don't need to rise the shareauth, but in any sort of rapidly growing profitable company sense (which they consider highly likely) having the ability to use equity for mergers, acquisitions and so on is pretty much standard operating procedure. I haven't kept track of all the warrants, options etc against the current s.a., but they are pretty much bumping up into it, particularly given they have not yet funded the coming year and need to likely fund into the next year as well.
So, in a sympathetic case, they need the 190 if they do not do an RS, they want the head room in any event, they see RS as highly unlikely (these are the guys that turned a doughnut hole into an abyss, they have serious vision issues) so given their completely screwed up current view (recall confidence of how news was coming out to eliminate the delisting notice prior to the end of the year) ... but somewhere, somebody told them they probably should add-in some language about a possible RS. Again, we are talking some really dumb folks here (on this whole matter). My cat, the mouse my cat ate, all could more ably navigate a pretty simple situation.
So rather than get all hominid and think and come up with a plan and present it, they simply generate a proxy of 'all-of'the-above'
You can see the BoD meeting now. A timer goes off every few minutes to wake folks up, ideas are mentioned, on every one of them Mac gurggles out some sort of "put it in" (he might have been saying "putt it in", nobody knows).
On the ESOP, it serves as a recruitment and retention tool, I believe it is likely managed as well as they manage cash-flow, but structurally it is normally a valuable and necessary tool when administered by hominids, and even some felines. the amendment of the ESOP is simply to keep the numbers the same, 25% of the company is available to issue as equity/options-based compensation. I believe in equity-based compensation, its the bloody cash they throw at these guys when cash is so rare that irks me. I imagine most everybody gets some options when hired, and likely gets some as part of the annual bonus structure ... not a ton, but some.
That is what I am used to seeing at cash-burning R&D based startups in other fields ... the salary is adequate for a decent life-style, the perks are very good (health,vision,dental,childcare, gyms, childcare or whatever) but the gold is the equity compensation .. and not just the ESPP. Otherwise go work for IBM.
The problem is not the proxy or the tools to management that it provides, the problem is who is actually being empowered and their observable ineptness and the considerable barriers to changing the talent pool at the top, and the complete unwillingness of the top to consider for even a moment that they don't know it all.
Big Bounce, you may be on to something,
Wave has somewhat tarnished what was a sterling record in the matter of private placements.
I'm not kidding, I'm not bashing, it is what is. Those that enter into placements with Wave have historically been able to exit prior to or very proximally to the placement at a profit and carry the warrants essentially for free.
Along with trying to sell its various products, Wave sells shares ... and the going is getting rough on that side of their business (the more productive side historically).
The best way to solve that is to generate another good warm feeling in the placement arena. Delay news, place at a discount, release news, the qualified placement investors can dump and sit on their warrants, Wave's rep in placement circles is repaired, the company gets the funding it needs and a better record to seek similar funding in the future.
This, of course, throws current shareholders under the bus in many respects, but there is no evidence that this factors greatly into their strategy of making the company, Wave Systems, successful.
Now, it wont happen like this, but it is a good plan from managements perspective.
On the proxy, they should have just authorized the printing and distribution of bazillions of Class B 5:1 voting rights stock and gotten it over with and quit the bloody charade.
barge, being very loosely familiar with this,
that is Boeing's work, it is my understanding their work does not involve leveraging the TPM. As in all things, I may be in error, but a significant component of TCG work and spec affords development of IF-MAP in the complete absence of leveraging a TPM, or at least in the absence of centrally managed TPMs.
Reminder, that last placement ....
almost, not completely, but almost paid for scrambls.
wooo-hooo.
alea, on a brighter note,
Wave said they needed $6m to get through the year (a point dismissed as boilerplate by some, historical facts notwithstanding), but it would seem "investors" could take solace in the notion that they are half way there on necessary equity financing?
And about all the stuff SKS said about the last $1m placement and that Wave didn't need it, somebody just came walking by so they took it ... does not this last placement give clear indication, that on tape, out load in the annual report CC, SKS was really kinda more or less lying?
barge, dilution at a significant discount to market
IS
by definition
MATERIAL
(and hence the requisite PR and SEC filing for MATERIAL events).
Collect FACTS.
Determine WHAT IS.
THEN ... act.
The notion that dilution at a discount is not material is patently in error. Were the ticker not WAVX, I suspect you would consider this material event as a material event.
Investors (me) should keep track of things,
my e-mail box says I just bought WAVX ... what?? say I.
Yup, left a GTC order at 49 cents in my sandbox account (the one that could go away and I wouldn't notice) when I came up with the idea that one cold likely make money on a sea-saw from 50 cents to 70 cents in WAVX.
Guess I just stumbled onto a sea-saw, filled at 48 cents, suppose that was probably the open.
A recommendation:
Collect facts, determine what is.
THEN, decide how you feel about what is.
Then act.
If I took the ticker symbol off all available information for WAVX, just made it "company X", DDers would not touch it with a ten foot pole.
The talk about how an RS could/would be good was over the top.
Well, here's to hoping for a rally to 70 cents and I can get back off the see-saw ... the limit sell at 69 cents just went in.
barge, your quotes and inalics are wrong on this
the quotes and italics belong ONLY around
"yes includes ERAS"
as far as price per seat, potential number of seats and so on, that is Wavoid speculation.
The info trail indicates the bank has a number of folks using remote access, that those folks, the remote access folks, will be outfitted with Wave-enabled devices for their remote access duties.
It looks like a valuable important step for Wave, as have many other steps looked valuable and important. Certainly, I like the fact that it is up thar in Nordic land, it strikes me as a part of the world where Wave might gain some traction.
The question is, to me, is this the same 6k seats that was indicated in the 10k PR? which most have already pegged in the $300-500k range and already factored int share price and the company had already included prior to their audited remarkably reliable statement that they need to go fetch $6m to carry on as a going concern?
I see in the proxy that SKS has about 1.5m shares or so of interest,
most of which is in the form of options. That was the same thing a year ago, two years ago, 5 years ago ... somebody is not diluting. Awards are adjusted to reflect dilution. Shareholders, on the other hand, just dilute.
There is no question that the proxy is a vehicle to insure, less there having ever been any prior doubt, that this is a private company with shareholders as a charity service, kinda like a government development bank ... give, ask nothing in return ... cause it's good for the country, good for the company, and the givers do it for rewards other than financial, with no reasonable expectation of personal gain.
I want to thank Wave investors in advance, rather than serving in Afghansitan, or diving in front of a bullet to protect a head of state, they throw their money - no strings attached - to technology development for the sake of technology development. Like many charities, there are/will be those that get rich off the efforts, but it won't be the ones writing the checks.
SKS get's 1.5+% of whatever happens with no skin in the game (as with all of the others 'at the top'), splits, money wasting, bad financial decisions mean nothing ... they simply adjust their reward and keep themselves in the same ownership percentage that they were at prior to dumb decisions.
Another point on the scam thing ...
It, again, is not a scam.
They told shareholders they are losing more money than they have available to lose with no end in sight.
They tell this to shareholders.
They write it down for all to read.
It is not a scam.
Some shareholders take this information to mean that Samsung's new toy has Wave bundled. Those shareholders are delusional and are not listening to what the company they praise is telling them in black and white.
The company said they are losing more money than they have available to lose with no end in sight. That is NOT a statement of being bundled with Samsung's latest toy.
there is plenty of real estate to be found between being a rocket success and being a scam .... much of that land being labelled "bad investment".
It is not a scam, they tell shareholders they are going to give themselves (Spragues) 2-3% of the company a year in non-performance bonuses ... and they do.
They are generally accurate when they write. Spoken stuff ?? best avoided.
barge, lots of people are thankful that Wave is inclined to do so much for free, and similarly inclined to not do profitless work themselves. The icons will be the people that sell the things. Jobs didn't invent the GUI, or the cell phone. So yes, thank those developers whose names you do not know for the things that MSFT and AAPL have marketed. SKS *DID* say his tech underpins iTunes ... right? Pretty cool being able to thank Wave for that too.
telstar, the conditions underpinning proxy votes and changes in proxy votes are off topic, trust me on this.
Certainly there was a consensus to remove some BoD members, it seemed there were discussions, discussions folks were proud of at the time, discussions about voting WAVX shares, but discussing voting WAVX shares or recalling those discussions seems off topic to me, no?
Orda, thank you,
while this information had been provided in the appropriate venue, it has been less than durable. The statement underpinning the claim recently labelled as a lie are as follows (and this is just one instance of a long litany to that effect)
“As I said earlier, we have the votes to remove John E. Bagalay, Jr., Ph.D., and John E. McConnaughy, Jr.
http://www.atomicbobs.com/index.php?mode=read&id=705666
many many many millons of votes were cast, the claim of having the votes to determine an outcome REQUIRES control of MILLIONS of votes.
These are facts, facts of the public record. I am not lying.
The WAVX PR is entirely disingenuous.
well, at least I think so.
Unless my notes are totally off, their producthas been FIPS 140 compliant for some time.
It is as if Microsoft was to issue PR and say
" Our OS runs on Intel Chips!!!! "
there is the -hyphen-mode thing in the PR, so maayybee there is actually something that is not rather old, but is reaks of desperation.
Management at this points requires a SP rally to pay their bonuses (something they must do through equity sales). SKS bought some shares on the open market for the first tie in 15 years last autumn ... cause he saw that things were bad and hid paycheck was in jeopardy.
As I have said before, the most bearish thing to happen to WAVX was SKS buying on the open market .... only a real train wreck could bring him to such levels, indeed, he has said his investment adviser and wife forbids it.
I'm not saying run to the sell column, as I think it is a wash (some news, some hubris, a RS, some chaos, some notions, some Samsung, some rally) all a wash in the end.
The current 130m shares of WAVX out there own about 20% or what WAVX will be, at best. Those that get in LATER than now may see some profit.
The notion of a a time to mutiny from WAVX is not after the WAVX ship has hit the rocks that WAVX management and the WAVX CFO ran the WAVX ship towards. The time is when the WAVX targetted rocks are in sight of WAVX and the captain of WAVX is oblivious. awk a WAVX shareholder , through snacks a WAVX shareholder, (awk and snack stated publicly they controlled millions of WAVX shares and opened it for public discussion on WAVX boards and they blocked the effort by WAVX shareholders a year ago when the rocks that WAVX was heading towards were insight and the captain of WAVX was oblivious. A WAVX shareholder consensus had formed for some changes at WAVX, a few influential WAVX shareholders had a chat, and decided to go with the status quo at WAVX. Wave's options now are few. Such is the case when the WAVX ship is trapped in the rips near the rocks WAVX piloted towards. Short of a miraculous BigNewSale by Wave (WAVX), the circumstance set by the controller of large share interests in WAVX by celebrity shareholders of WAVX (awk through snack) have secured this fate for WAVX, for better or for worse. the ship (WAVX) will hit the rocks that WAVX pilots towards. People survive shipwrecks like this, some even benefit, but for most it is 'capital destruction' (at WAVX).
It has been agreed for some time that the timeline of TC adoption is very difficult to predict (notably as it pertains to WAVX), but management (of WAVX) and influential shareholders (of WAVX) combined to decide(for WAVX) that regardless of its unpredictability (the market for WAVX), that they would aim (WAVX)straight for the rocks and hope for the best ... only to say afterwords the timeline of adoption (of WAVX products) was terrible difficult to predict (by WAVX management). That was the point! The timeline (of the deployment of WAVX products) is terrible difficult to predict, so don't eat all your food on day one! SKS (the CEO of WAVX), awk (a sharehodler leading a support WAVX onthe last proxy vote, and snackman (a shareholder publicly leading a shareholder consensus on the last proxy vote for WAVX) decides that eating everything as fast as possible (WAVX eating money) presented the potential for the greatest reward (for WAVX shareholders)..., but ignored completely the massively increased likelihood for complete loss (for WAVX shareholders).
this post nails it,
the fine products of AAPL, MSFT dominance, and ITRU. Think about it, really important stuff.
ronle, there is this ...
From DAY ONE Google has required the TPM in all Chromebooks.
Perhaps they have required it because Chrome/Chromium have no interest in it and do not leverage it for their web-client Chromebook relationships.
Or, perhaps they leverage it as part of a device identity strategy to secure the Chrome/Chromium web/client relationship.
So, on what google has done ... yes, they have released a platform requiring a device ... I assume they use the device they require.
Does that mean they have an ERAS COTS, no. But, do they have their own ....??
Links? google it.
and I forgot, to insure OnT,
AAPL has iPhones, MS has an operating system, and ITRU is suing over DRM. (hard to understand, but when in Rome ...).
alea,
you are correct, AAPL has fine products and they enjoy a premium on those products. MSFT controls a large share of the desktop PC operating system environment. ITVU has an interestnig lawsuit over its properties covering DRM.
Q4 showed a reduction in cash-burn. I expect Q1 to continue that trend. I think the sidelines is looking at cash-burn, not "good numbers" or "bad numbers". The sidelines are looking for less burn, regardless at what "revenue" number e.g. that occurs at. Wave's limited guidance was that expenses should continue to go down in Q1, and down more in Q2 with Q2 presumably representing their current expenses target, whatever number that ends up being. As Q4 was basically about 10-11m exp, and I imagine they are aiming for 9-10m. If Q1 sees a repeat of Q4 billings then cash burn would not look insanely ugly, just ugly. They won't make it to 9-10 in Q1, and Q1 billings will likely be less than Q4 billings, so the numbers will look pretty rough. I expect they will be compelled to give clearer guidance on current Q2 burn rate during that report and expect them to claim that they will be realizing a full Q of previously referred to cost cutting, which, if coupled to any stability i billings could make a case for something resembling CFBE, which is what the sidelines are looking for.
mmbg, sensible post.
The RS must be of a magnitude to actually succeed in holding the SP for compliance. The PS must clear the 1s I would think, so 1:5 or 1:10 seems the way to go. I don't know why nobody seems to think 1:10 is on the table, it, IMO, is.
It is not my understanding that the shareholders necessarily have a voice in splits.
http://www.sec.gov/answers/reversesplit.htm
"A company’s board of directors may declare a reverse stock split without shareholder approval. "
however, in jurisdictions requiring or encouraged to use a nominal par value (e.g. Delaware) my limited understanding is reestablishemnt of a par value would mean amendment of the articles and hence a shareholder vote.
It is a matter of some confusion, but it seems that interpretation of Delaware law (where I believe Wave is incorporated) is that the "may" in law is as a practical matter interpreted as "must"
http://www.lexisnexis.com/community/corpsec/blogs/corporate-law-blog/archive/2011/04/06/one-for-the-lawyers-forward-split-in-delaware-requires-shareholder-approval.aspx
But in any event, I am thinking 1:5 or 1:10, with the proxy seeking authorization for 1:3, 1:5 and 1:10 with 3 and 5 almost undoubtedly getting approved and likely 10 as well.
If one assume this to play out at 50 cents and go off at 1:5, with a post-split of 2.50 and a likely restatement of share authorization at 150m, wave will stand with something like 25m shares outstanding and room to print another 125.
Wave's NHS nibbles
Frimley Park Hospital (NHS, Surrey) (Safend.
http://www.safend.info/frimley-park-hospital-nhs-trust
Northern Health and Social Care Trust of Northern Ireland (SEDs, Embassy)
http://www.wave.com/buzz/pr/northern-health-and-social-care-trust-selects-wave-protect-personal-health-information-lapto
Bolton NHS Foundation Trust (Safend)
http://www.computing.co.uk/ctg/news/2231908/nhs-trust-selects-wave-systems-safend-encryptor-to-replace-unreliable-mcafee-endpoint
Doncaster and Bassetlaw Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (Safend)
http://www.computing.co.uk/ctg/news/2259218/nhs-trust-selects-safend-suite-to-replace-free-mcafee-safeboot-solution
and barge, much of the content currently revolves around content that I am unaware of regarding statements of Dell revenue recognition, AR listing and so on. Could somebody point me towards that content?
barge, the point is simply to suggest a reasonable path through Q2, through a revsplit, all in the absence of a BigNewDeal or a PP. the preponderance of notions seems to suggest that either a BigNewDeal or a PP is a given to get through Q2, and I think Q2 will end with neither.
Now, on the issue of you citing my notions as being sober, I am certain plenty will differ with you. They will be in error, but they will differ.
player, thnks eom
you underestimate the value of the NHS being able to post a persons personal health details on facebook and not have other people be able to read it. these are central missions. central to the NHS, central to Wave.
Neither Wave nor the NHS could reasonably expect a future without their ability to transit their content thru facebook.
Big picture.
And given that everything else is in the bag, and Wave is flush with capital .. what can I say ... scamble on.
I have one problem.
Somebody had/has a dog. The dog's name is scramble(s) or so I understand ... and now wave has a "product" ... scrambl.
I see.
alea, this is where I ask if
$6m on scrambls is going to put healthcare over the top ....
NW, I think they are the same thing, given that it was during mic session, I simply think SKS was referring to what the 10K PR said in print from a different direction(money as opposed dot seats). IU care not to speculate on whether it is NHS related, your bold statements are consistent with my feelings for the NHS, but in print there is a ERAS UK gov thingy and a SFND NHS thingy, and while I would feel good in crossing those wires, I am disinclined to do it.
I think markets for endpoint DAR are distinct from deive authneticaton, and the D&B thingy is IMO just a back-pocket PR for a zero-margin sale of a commodity.
The other thing, the ERAS thing (which may or may not be NHS) is more important. IMO SKS crosses wires sometimes ... that the SFND thing with other people looking to see how it goes gets crossed with a UK Gov thing where there is a 6k seat ERAS deployment but not necessarily the notion of people looking over the fence.