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Vantillian,
Follow your DD. Understand the story today and the potential going forward. This R/S is no different than any of the other R/S done by profitable companies with increasing revs/eps (very few). There will be dips along the way from weak hands that will create buying opportunities; had a good one yesterday. Virtra is looking at 100% increase in revs for 2011. IMO, the PR pipeline and quarterly reports that will flow in the coming months will be a gravy train for all longs, R/S or not. GLTY.
As a follow up, the following is a short description from Alliance's website (http://allianceadvisorsllc.com/) regarding a couple of the proxy related services they provide:
Proxy Solicitation:
Working well in advance of traditional proxy firms, Alliance Advisors mitigates potential issues, while also allowing our clients more flexibility in the methods to be employed.
Alliance Advisors offers a broad array of proxy solicitation engagements:
- Director Elections
- Equity Plan Proposals
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- Say-on-Pay Proposals
- By-Law Amendments
- Capital Restructuring Proposals
- Shareholder Proposals
- Vote No Campaigns
Alliance Advisors designs and executes tailored strategies using an arsenal of resources at our disposal — a well-tenured staff of respected industry leaders, proprietary and up-to-date investor databases, vote projections, and a on-site, state-of-the-art communications center that can contact over 30,000 shareholders per day.
Proxy Management:
Simplify the shareholder meeting process. As proxy manager, Alliance Advisors provides public companies with a turnkey solution to manage the entire shareholder meeting process, whether the client selects the “Full Set Delivery” or “Notice Only” option. We offer a full suite of services, including:
- Financial Printing
- Proxy Mailings
- Broker Search and Distribution
- Vote Tabulation
- Posting of Shareholder Documents
- Web Hosting
- Fulfillment
- Invoice Verification and Processing
Our work also involves developing timelines, cost projections, and confidential bidding as well as logistical recommendations and proxy consulting. Alliance Advisors ensures all procedures are properly executed, all timetables are met, and the process is professionally managed with a view toward financial efficiencies.
Bill,
IMO it's not tampering or harassment, just a service Virtra is using to ensure the majority of the votes are cast. I put some Virtra in my parent’s brokerage account and another account for my grand kids. My Mom took a call from alliance and was able to vote no on the RS without pressure. I am the POC for my grand kids account and alliance called me and asked if I wanted to vote "managements recommendations", "no" or "abstain". They were prepared to explain each of the amendments. The alliance rep I talked with left me feeling that alliance was professional outfit.
PS: Just wanted to emphasize, I have no idea what the alliance service cost Virtra. The $200K I indicated in an early post is just my WAG.
Stormer,
I really have no idea. If I were to venture a guess, I would say a $200K, which probably included some governance advisement along with proxy support.
I'm pretty sure Virtra is using Alliance Advisors, LLC for their proxy solicitation and management.
Link to AA: http://allianceadvisorsllc.com/
Pat,
Thank you for your homework and sharing of info.
Regards, Ray
Copy all Al,
I sure wish I would have discovered this one back in the sub .02 or even in the .04 range, but the prospects/story probably wasn't as clear back then as it is today. I entered the stock last fall with the expectation that it would dip to .065 area based on technical analysis. I waited for quite a while but it finally hit. Since then I have tried to add between the .065 and .072 range, and obviously had pretty good success growing my position last week. I'm seeing some of the same TA now that I saw when I first entered VTSI. I'm hopeful that we have found a bottom between .065 and .07, but prepared to buy lower if the opportunity presents itself. I will remain very bullish on VTSI unless management starts to fumble excessively with the ongoing growth and expansion. I will be tolerable of the occasional mistake, since I recognize this is a junior team that is learning as they go in many respects.
GLTY, Ray
Your welcome ztect,
I would describe my strategy as a simultaneous tango with Peter Lynch and William O'Niel. I'm fairly proficient in the FA and TA arena. I build a bullpen of stocks that I a want to own based on FA and set target entry points. If the market gods are good to me, the stock gets added to my long-term portfolio. Once my position is established I will more times than not trade around my core position to either buy down the dollar cost average and/or add to my core position. I'm a frequent trader, but not a day trader. Since I only trade stocks that I already own or plan to own, my tolerance for bad TA is higher than the typical frequent trader and I will sit on a loss longer, or accept a larger temporary loss, and rely on my FA which drew me into the stock in the first place. Bottom line, I don't sell at a loss too often, and my trading statistics are pretty decent.
I'm right there with you on what your strategy would be if your intent would be to short VTSI post RS. That is why I was confused as to what your intent/objectives were until I took the time to review historic posts and see where you were coming from. I did the same thing for Bill once I got smart on you
GLTY, Ray
Wow! "By delisting, small companies can save up to $2 million annually"
Stormer,
IMO, it won't cost Virtra anywhere near $2M to uplist. As a SWAG I would say $150K/yr salary for a comptroller plus options (300K/yr); two independent directors at 300K/yr in options; and an annual audit at $100-300K/yr. Total cost probably closer to $500K and I would say that is a high estimate. But that isn’t chump change for an $11M company.
ztect,
I owe you an apology. I just finished reviewing a bunch of your prior posts and saw that you are or have been a long-term holder that is looking to get out ahead of a RS and buy back in lower. I respect your game plan, though I'm betting we see the bottom ahead of a RS and feel compelled to buy at current levels. The strategy you laid out that management should have followed for uplisting is spot on. Hopefully Team Virtra will get the opportunity to correct recent mistakes, and get the company successfully uplisted without too much PPS pain in the process.
You, Bill and others have me reconsidering my yes vote on the RS, and I've checked, I can change it. Ironically, my vote based on my share balance today would carry 3x as much weight as my official vote based on proxy date of record.
Good analysis Pat,
There are risks, but the conspiracy theory that management is out to screw the share holders, doesn't fly with me either.
Risks IMO:
- RS passes and there is a short duration drop in price from sellers that believe a VTSI RS play out like the majority of all others. I've been buying at current levels and I’m prepared to buy lower if RS creates the opportunity. I believe fundamentals will prevail, versus "all RSs are doomed to failure".
- Management fails to manage rapid growth effectively and margins continue to deteriorate. This risk would develop slowly and we will see it coming.
- We stay on the pinks and fail to get increased visibility which I feel is needed for VTSI to get priced its true value.
- Management makes a bad acquisition that results is dilution and reduced earnings.
Very good Pat,
I enjoy your posts, both here and yahoo.
ztect,
The point I was trying to make, is that I do not agree that the majority of future shareholders are going to be speculators. Virtra is no longer a speculation unless their fundamentals go in the tank. The other point I was making is that the PPS doesn't influence a speculator to buy or sell, their bet is based on the likelihood for profit or loss from the point of entry, and PPS is irrelevant.
I think we probably agree on several other points, but I'm betting long and you appear to be short, but considering you can't short VTSI, I assume you are looking to go short post split? If that is your position, I wouldn't even bank on the RS passing the vote, so I don’t agree with your negative stance.
We are in agreement on lousy trading volume. It stinks today at .07 and it will stink just as bad at 7.00. The only way the volume picks up IMO, is with increased visibility amongst investors and traders, which will most likely not happen without an uplisting.
I think we agree the RS proxy was rolled out poorly and 100:1 is a bigger RS than what is needed. I also agree with you that a higher share price, followed by audit and then a RS with the intent to uplist would have been the best plan to execute. IMO, they made a mistake, just like they did when they bought the property for expansion. I anticipate more mistakes in the future... This a junior management team and they are learning as they go, but they aren’t making the kind of mistakes that are going to ruin this company.
What you and I seem to disagree on is short versus long. I believe they will not only survive this mistake, but continue to flourish, due to numerous positive fundamentals that will outweigh the sloppy attempt to reduce OS. I suspect in the end we may come to understand the pressures that lead to a hasty rollout of the RS proposal. But your intent appears to be to short this stock based on a possible RS. I'm not even convinced the RS is going to pass vote, but you seem to be convinced that this companies days are numbered regardless of proxy results. That is where we disagree. GLTY.
PS: Not sure what you are talking about when you say "no matter how many words you banter about"? With all due respect, the words you banter about are very confusing. I honestly can’t tell whether you are short or a long want-to- be. You could have made a compelling argument to go short on 21 March, but considering you can’t short the stock that is futile. If the RS is approved, and that is a very big if, you could short the stock, but IMO that is a bet you will likely lose. You appear to be a basher, but I don’t understand what your winning game plan is?
ztect,
IMO, your thesis is flawed with your emphasis on "speculation"...."no speculative traders who make this pink market will be buying a low volume stock, that just executed a r/s. ..those type of speculators don't care what the reason for the r/s is or was. ."
I would argue the majority of the speculators have come and gone. Virtra was speculative when it was trading for a penny with minimal to no earnings, and hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt.
With the debt elimination, increasing revs and earnings, and strong partnerships, this stock is no longer a speculative buy. It's investment grade with the stigma of "pink". That stigma will fix itself in time. There are a handful of quality companies on the pinks that trade on their fundamentals and Virtra as joined that small minority. As you suggest, the vast majority of the pinks are highly speculative with deteriorating or negative earnings…. not the case for Virtra.
Quite frankly, I hope this depressed price in conjunction with the RS proxy, shakes out the rest of the speculators. If the RS passes, there may be new speculators that enter Virtra with a short bet, but I wouldn’t make that bet knowing what I do about the fundamentals. It sounds like you intend to short the stock when you can. You should get that opportunity if the RS is approved, but I will be betting against you GLTY.
PS: The PPS doesn't matter to speculators, at least not to speculators that know what they are doing. I've placed speculative bets on many stocks over the years, and there have been just as many of them selling for dollars as there were pennies. It's all about the percent return, not the PPS.
"HE'S BEEN HERE LONG ENOUGH TO BUY IN AT .04-.05 EARLIER..Why did he wait till now???"
Bill,
With all due respect, does it really matter why he waited until now? Think about it; it may be because he (they) have realized late in the game that they gooned up this RS and the other amendments, and the purchase of shares is to show other holders that managements actions are in good faith. These guys aren't making millions and $44K says volumes about a guy that makes $150K/year (give or take). Many on this board believe management to be criminals executing a conspiracy with the intent to screw share holders. I can't comprehend why they are still here if they have no faith in management.
Which makes me wonder about you? For a guy that is so convinced that management is out to screw us all, why are you still here? Are you still long or hanging around on this board just to get your revenge?
PS: With respect to my lack of knowledge on Virtra, I suspect my analysis and perspective is clearer than yours and other long-term holders. My vision hasn't been clouded by all the baggage you are carrying around.
ztect,
You said, "yep, you got. it will be more than a few million dollars cheaper to do a buy back post r/s. moreover if the price is depressed to around $4 another corporate entity could come in and offer a buyout a controlling interest for around $6 mill dollar"
IMO,
"a few million cheaper" is a huge stretch considering the company only has a market cap today of $11M. This is a company that is going to have more revs in 2011, at 25%+ net earnings, than they have market cap today. I can't believe you realistically think they can save millions post RS. Maybe, and that is a big maybe, they save several thousand $$. The more likely scenario with improving revs/eps, is that buybacks will be much more costly post RS. Why do you thing Don Andrus is buying today at .07? I anticipate we will see more insider buying before this RS fiasco is over.
Stockguy,
I 2nd that request to management. I also believe the R/S proposal is at risk without further guidance from management.
I would also recommend management document intent to uplist at a future date, when the timing is right.
Regards
"New filing (Form 4) Andrus acquires a few more shares"
What a waste of money for a guy that is scheming to screwover shareholders (sarcasm).
Klinker,
You said, "They are having for sure a good track record regarding building up their business, yes. But creating shareholder value is not that impressive so far. 7 consecutive record-breaking quarters and still stuck below 0.10 is just frustrating."
How much profit are you looking for? Since they started their record breaking quarters (your words), they are up about 300% for those who bought below .02 and it traded at that level for months. There are many on the yahoo board that have locked down several 100% profits since the RS announcement.
Even if you bought a year ago at .065, you had the opportunity to take profits at 50%+. My point is, the stock has been performing just fine for my expectations.
dlewis,
Yes, I'm a new alias, but I have been lurking for quite a while. I've posted frequently on yahoo as raystapf and felt compelled to share my opinion on Ihub, with such a strong bias building against the RS. I'm also one of those guys that own many more shares than any Virtra director/employee, other than Mr. Ferris. As unusual as it may seem to you, there have been many cases in my investing career where I have owned more shares than company directors. I'm actually holding two other companies right now where my share balance exceeds that held by the majority of the directors. This is very common with fledgling companies and recent shake ups.
Bill,
With all due respect, your comment "VIRTUALLY NO ONE IS AGAINST A REVERSE SPLIT..JUST NOT 1:100 AND AFTER WE GET AUDITED FINANCIALS NOW GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS AND THINK..." is ridiculous and makes no sense.
There is no fundamental difference in the "number" of shares being split. The net revs and eps remain the same regardless of the number of shares. If as a shareholder I receive $1.00 in earnings from the company, it's the same, whether it's a buck, ten dimes or 100 pennies.
"The proxy/RS announcement had NO EFFECT you say? We only had our largest volume day in the past year the day the proxy/CC was announced. And this would have happened if there was no proxy/RS according to you. LMAO!!!"
dlewis,
You have to keep the share volume and impact in perspective. The volume has been and remains anemic. The selling your seeing ($70K worth on a million share day) is small time. IMO, the selling has been small-time players, weak hands, or misinformed. If the real holders of the company stock were concerned you would see several million shares a day going back and forth.
Disclosure/Opinions:
- I'm long
- I'm adding on this weakness which hasn't been easy; what's that tell you?
- I voted yes to RS and all other proposed amendments
- I would have preferred to see a smaller RS a few months from now, but feel it is still the right first step, even at 1:100
- This isn't your Daddy's RS. If price dips post split it won't be based on fundamentals, but rather panic and misunderstanding, which will generate another buy opportunity.