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It is not clear from what you have written, whether you think VRTX under $30 has some value or not. Could you please clarify? The book seems to be higky rated on Amazon.
I am paid subscriber to some Motley Fool subscriptions I raised a huge stink and they admitted that they were wrong in posting this article without any fact checking. So they have now deleted it.
I am puzzled too. LGND and VRTX that I picked up yesterday are slightly green too. AMRN and CLSN is trying to get there too
Maybe Goldman is quietly accumulating now? Who knows.
IMHO, Bret Holley is being a jerk. I am sure based on his recommendation Oppenheimer sold 5 million shares of MNTA at around 10-11. So, he is now trying to justify his stupid recommendation by lowballing numbers for Enox going forward.
The problem is that we can calculate these numbers, but the stupid analysts can't and that is why they should be asking these questions.
See t57's comment about Oppenheimer's estimates for 2012-2014.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68771876
Why didn't a single analyst ask when MNTA estimates the threshold of 99.1 contractual profit would be crossed? I thought this would be the first question asked today.
Manufacturing expenses for Copaxone? Rick didn't want to elaborate. Some trials required by FDA, perhaps?
I wouldn't settle for anything less than 27.5, so that my Jan 2013 $25 calls will be profitable
That is the market being stupid and the shorts controlling it to a certain extent.
That being said MNTA has never traded below cash, has it? If its cash keeps growing, the stock price will rise too. It is just common sense.
Let me know when MNTA starts trading below its cash value.
That's just plain silly. It matters if they earn $2 or $0.5. It means a difference of 150 million to their cash holdings.
So instead of $8.5 in cash at the end of next year, it could be $10 cash.
Do you mean to tell me that it doesn't make a difference? The floor for the stock would be higher. You can buy with more confidence if it falls to the 12-13 level knowing that they have $10 in cash.
Just what is your agenda here?
Momenta Pharma preliminary injunction a positive surprise, says Leerink
Leerink views Momenta Pharma's preliminary injunction against Amphastar as a positive surprise and believes the judge's language suggests a reasonable likelihood of success in the infringement trial. The firm thinks the injunction could establish a precedent and reiterates an Outperform rating Momenta shares.
Based on the PR below my interpretation is that it means 99.1 in profits for Novartis. So assuming a profit margin of 68%, Novartis needs sales of 145.73 million to reach that profit amount which should be in about 60-70 days (i.e. less than a quarter) assuming the duopoly status quo remains unchanged.
I have sent an email to IR asking for clarification. Maybe some of you here might have already done that.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Momenta-Pharmaceuticals-pz-2375555192.html?x=0&.v=1
Under the terms of Momenta's 2003 Collaboration and License Agreement with Sandoz, upon the launch of an authorized generic Lovenox, for the remainder of the product year ending June 30, 2012, Sandoz is obligated to pay Momenta a 10-12% royalty on its net sales of enoxaparin sodium until the contractual profits from those net sales reaches a prorated contractual amount of approximately $99.1 million. Thereafter, provided that no other third party is marketing a generic Lovenox, Sandoz is obligated to pay Momenta 45% of contractual profits on net sales through the remainder of the product year ending June 30, 2012.
John,
I have never had any trouble buying options for MNTA in Options House, Options Express and Merrill Edge.
I usually never buy more than 20 at a time though. What I do is I start with 5 cents over the bid and leave it there for an hour. Then I move it up another 5 cents and so on until it hits.
Sometimes the spread is so huge, it takes patience. I see the spread at 50c / $4 I see many people buying near the $4 which is insane. With my strategy and patience I may end up getting filled at a $1.2 or $1.5. I guess it becomes harder when you try to do 500 at once. Even when I do 20 I make sure that I don't check the all or none checkbox. So, sometimes the first 5 may fill and then do nothing. In that case I might have to raise my limit by 5 cents and then the other 15 may get filled.
I was stubborn on Friday and now I am regretting it. I had a limit order for 10 cents all day on the Nov 16 call all day and it never filled.
I have about 100 of the Nov 14/15/16/17 contracts acquired when MNTA was trading between 12 and 13. I am hoping that MNTA goes above 17-18 after the earnings call so I can make some decent profit.
I do have more than 300 of all MNTA options of various expirations and strike prices.
Hope that helps.
Hande
I care because they will to some extent determine the immediate trading price in the next week. In addition to quite a lot of shares, I have some Nov 14/15/16/17 contracts and some Jan 15/20/25 contracts that I would like to sell for a reasonable profit
If it goes up and then comes down, that is fine too, so I can load up on the 2014 leaps.
Now if the Goldman b***ards are truly short MNTA you can bet that will try to say something negative so that they can cover at low prices and maybe get their clients in at low prices. Goldman may have been doing this to help their friends at Teva.
Why do I get worked up about Goldman? -- well for reasons like the ones in this article. Chinese style justice is needed for some of these crooks.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405
Hey, Zipjet,
Make sure that you don't sell covered calls on all your shares. Keep half uncovered just in case they get Copaxone approval. If you must sell covered calls on all your shares buy lots of the Jan 13 $25 calls just for the Copaxone approval. 2014 leaps will be available in a couple of weeks. Too bad they weren't available when MNTA was trading under $12. I would have bought like a million of those
Also, do you write puts at the same time as selling covered calls?
I am not sure the crooked analysts will rush to raise the target price any time soon. Especially the b***ards at Goldman. They may say that they reiterate their market perform rating and target of $12. Maybe Ritu Baral of Canacord might raise it to $20.
Hey, did you influence the judge
Excellent news. Hopefully nothing comes of the appeal.
The geniuses at Oppenheimer just lost about $25 million by selling MNTA at the bottom. They are probably the same retards saying Buy Netflix at 300 and Sell Netflix at 70
Nice
I think he meant that he would exercise the call at Op-Ex by paying 5000 * 12 = 60K. Wow!
I have about 100 of the Nov 14/15 calls some of which I may convert to shares if MNTA finishes well north of that by Nov Op-Ex. Remember the 5+ million shorts who might have to start covering.
Boy am I glad that I didn't write covered call this time.
I hope it is not too early to celebrate!
See the response InvestorGold got from IR. No is the answer.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68336967
Maybe the folks chasing high P/E stocks like NFLX, OPEN, AMZN, LNKD will start seeing the value in MNTA
Who is this AG you are referring to? It is Sanofi who launched an Authorized Generic (AG)
How do you get $1.60? Last quarter Enox sales was 284 Million. This quarter Novartis said sales was 259 Million. Yes, we have the additional 3.6 Million (10 million milestone income offset by a 6.4? million payment). Last quarter they earned $1.26. I can't see how they will earn more than that? If anything it will be a little less than $1.2. Thanks.
Enoxaparin (generic Lovenox®) sales were down 11% to USD 259 million (down from 284 million last quarter), as a result of an exceptionally strong third quarter in 2010, which included initial pipeline filling. In addition, a second generics company has received FDA approval for enoxaparin and an authorized generic was launched in October.
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q3-2011-media-release-en.pdf (see pg 16)
Any guesses on what earnings MNTA will have? I am guessing the shorts will drive this down more if there is an earnings miss.
Enoxaparin (generic Lovenox®) sales were down 11% to USD 259 million (down from 284 million last quarter), as a result of an exceptionally strong third quarter in 2010, which included initial pipeline filling. In addition, a second generics company has received FDA approval for enoxaparin and an authorized generic was launched in October.
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q3-2011-media-release-en.pdf (see pg 16)
Any guesses on what earnings MNTA will have? I am guessing the shorts will drive this down more if there is an earnings miss.
I guess she knew the AG was coming!
If MNTA gets the PI against Amphastar and Teva doesn't get approved for a while, then shouldn't we take the 45% profit share / royalty hybrid arrangement seriously?
I don't think I have seen it being mentioned. Is there a precedent that anybody is aware of? Thanks.
Piper Jaffray downgrades Teva on Copaxone competitive concerns will not abate over the near-term. The firm lowered its price target to $45 from $53.
Isn't it logical for them to then upgrade MNTA or Mylan? I haven't seen that.
I wanted to suggest that, but didn't! See how many Chinese companies have turned out to be complete frauds in the last year. Famed investor John Paulson lost $500 million in one such (Sino Forest) company. The Big 4 accounting companies are now refusing to take on any Chinese companies for fear of being involved.
Why would you sell a covered call at $11? Did you do that when MNTA dropped under 11? At 11, there is not much risk.
Dew,
Good to hear. But how did you get this info? Is it reliable?
Thanks,
Hande
If they did actually "market" the product without Watson's knowledge, could Watson fearing treble damages now, since a TRO was granted, end the relationship with Amphastar and tell Amphastar that they are on their own?
Didn't this selling of the product raise the stakes for Amphastar significantly? Now that there is a TRO, wouldn't they be more anxious to settle, especially, if MNTA has already switched over to royalty mode? However, any settlement now won't help MNTA too much. So, they may want to go all the way hoping for a preliminary and then permanent injunction.
Thanks. Any guesses on when Amphastar sold the product? Was it last week of September or the first week of October?
Maybe this is possibly why Rick Shea kept saying that we are now in cash burning mode in the last UBS? conference call.
Maybe the Amphastar approval was the best thing that could have happened for Momenta longs? (other than getting an FDA approval for Copaxone, of course )
If there is a settlement as Dew suggests might happen, where Amphastar agrees not to launch for 2 years (I know it is a big IF), then all of the following could happen:
1. It removes uncertainty of their earnings for 2012 and 2013. As the likelihood increases of a similar settlement with Teva, should Teva get approval for Lovenox
2. You can finally start assigning a 9-10 p/e to MNTA stock which could bring the stock to the $35-$40 range.
3. There is no pressure for MNTA to need earnings from Copaxone to start coming in right away
4. MNTA need not feel rushed into signing FOB partnerships with terms not very favorable to them
5. MNTA stock price won't take a huge hit if they were to lose the Copaxone patent case or if they get a minor deficiency letter for their Copaxone application.
6. Their cash holdings could end up much higher than $10.
I am sure most longs won't mind this short term pain if a settlement like the one Dew suggests were to happen.
I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best I will be so damn nervous on Oct 21st.
Wow! If that is true, he is a big time lawyer who was portrayed in the movie the Social Network representing Facebook against the Winklevoss twins.
http://www.proskauer.com/professionals/Detail.aspx?professional=bba4bf1b-2d0b-459f-b699-add7fdb5bdec&tabId=1
Thanks for the info. This looks good. Hopefully she can add another feather to her cap
Her practice focuses on intellectual property litigation including patent, trademark, copyright and trade secret matters. She also counsels clients on overall intellectual property strategy and positioning, including litigation avoidance. She also has extensive experience in representing clients in private arbitration proceedings under the rules and procedures of the International Chamber of Commerce, Swiss Chamber of Commerce, World Intellectual Property Organization, American Arbitration Association and other organizations
She is the author of “Irreparable Harm and Injunctions,” 2007 Leadership Forum, PricewaterhouseCoopers, February 2007 and the co-author of “Beware Patent Trolls,” Risk Management Magazine, April 2006.
As long as the results come by October Op Ex day (10/22), I am happy