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100% agree
The market will decrease. Just wait. Market increase now means nothing to Elite since it has no approved product.
Let’s wait and see the market figures when Elite launches after all those generics get their hand in the cookie jar.
Interesting. My platform only lets me go out 4 decimal places, which I did use this week.
No, they actually aren’t.
Was much higher than yesterdays buys, but had to just close the deal. Not worried about a penny or it going down to .07
I chased a bit this morning with some excess cash. Wanted to drive some excitement among the pumper crowd. 😃
Agreed. I am hopeful we can keep him around and eager to see what he can accomplish.
Perhaps. Lannett had motivation to stay financially viable.
If Elite was doing 5% of the Adderall
ER market, we’d be pulling in 70M+ annual revenue on that one product by itself. Let that reality bite sink in. Their ER market share is probably 1-2%. I’m hopeful the Prasco deal that it will enable much more ER revenue than Elite has been able to generate for the last several years. Knowing this I’m cautious to extrapolate Adderall IR penetration rates to all future products. Would 10% Vyvanse market be good news? That would be the best news ever. Let’s see what FDA says and what Kirko can do. Stay realistic and enjoy the ride.
I believe we did have closer to 10% for IR under Lannett so I expect we’ll get there again soon enough. I disagree with the Vyvanse market size with wave of generic competitors coming online. Maintaining $5B market is completely unrealistic.
Elite has done incredibly well penetrating IR market. ER on the other hand has barely scratched the surface with basically equivalent time in the market. Even if we do 1.5-2x this year vs under Lannett (CEO’s expectations) it’s still a sliver of the ER market held up by the DEA API management. It’s out of our control.
The good news is that top growth will be driven by new products or sales channels + higher profitability. Looking forward to next couple of years & seeing pipeline grow.
I am eager to see what Kirko can do, but don’t compare Trimipramine and Isradipine with Vyvanse. Not even in the same ballpark.
I completely agree that it’s all incremental to what Elite has today. It’s all wonderful to finally see come together. Elite’s piece just won’t be nearly as big as some dream.
Graph only shows actuals through 2022. Let’s watch and see what Vyvanse does after a myriad of generic competitors jump in the market. It will be incremental for Elite, but the total market will not even stay close to $5B. Auth generics decrease pricing a little bit, but just wait until broader generic players enter. This is the definition of competition by price, which is what generics are all about.
Scripts yes, not total market, which excludes brand to generic pricing shift.
$4B of Vyvanse market will disappear as brand shifts to generic pricing within the next 12 months. 80% shift expected if it follows normal brand to generic trajectory.
I thought it was same tech sans Naltrexone and they were testing different excipients.
It’s simply SequestOx reformulated. I believe it’s the same tech.
True, but they were many factors higher revenue than we currently are. We’ll get there, just not this year around poison pill expiration.
Incorrect. SequestOx was going to be used on a crap ton of opioids. That was the value of the technology that it was applicable to so many drugs.
I don’t think there will be any impact from poison pill expiration. During Lincoln agreements a ceiling was created and then lowered with each renewal. Elite is profitable, but doesn’t have anything unique that would warrant a takeover. If they cornered the opioid market with SequestOx and had billions pouring in that’s a different story. The company is generic focused, which is different from when the poison pill was created.
Just an FYI - a whisper number is external by sell-side analysts, not the CEO, who would be closest to the figures.
Busy with AMC going to hit $10K? Riiiight.
That would be an immaterial impact.
And do you really think this board commentary has any material influence?
I’d like to see 5-10% penetration rate for each of the Adderall products overtime. IR was there pre-Lannett and will get there again. I’d really like ER API hurdle to ease, but doesn’t sound realistic. Looking forward to complimentary relationship with Prasco for ER.
I’m certainly no fan of the non-arms length Mikah relationship, but there’s no fraud.
Was debating whether they will wait until end of the calendar or fiscal year to make fiscal year change. End of the fiscal year would make most sense from timing perspective.
So you are basing manipulation off a social media posting board. That’s not evidence. Plus, he was kicked off years ago. He was just disgruntled.
Please prove the manipulation. That is a myth based on zero facts. Every investor has an different strategy. Some invest for small % daily gains, other LT. To speak for all investors is silly. Unless you are Lorax who speaks for the trees.
Just happened to see your post. I put you on ignore long ago.
My oxy comment was one example regarding upcoming volatility, for better or worse, dependent on the outcome. Nothing more, nothing less. There are plenty of other drivers that will take place over the next 4 months.
I don’t believe the stock is manipulated as some here claim. It’s an OTC stock currently with low volume, but better action than couple months ago for sure. Until there’s consistent interest the stock will not follow broader market movement and has minimal price stabilization. It’s been like this for the last 10+ years. Starting to get traction that will take care of itself in due time.
Could be, but investors know heavier trading volume at open/close so if someone wants to sell those are most opportune times to do so.
Perhaps there’s a correlation with the CFO rehire on some small retail holders.
Regardless, between now and the end of the calendar year there is plenty of potential news updates to drive the stock one way or the other. If generic oxy doesn’t does/doesn’t get accepted by FDA expect some big volatility on that news.
I thought MTX market took a big hit at end of last year when it was no longer being diagnosed for certain arthritic conditions. Think it triggers some respiratory issues.
For shareholders it’s about trust and reliability of the financial statements and commentary during the conference calls.
That’s the same CFO with Magnum Cum Laude that had to resubmit and amend Elite’s financials how many times? The same one that didn’t know how to record an upfront payment appropriately as revenue as earned and not all at once? Yes, that’s the one.
Precisely. There is no sales relationship between Prasco & Teva, other than acquiring the XR auth generic many years ago so Teva could move forward with Allergan acquisition.
Teva divested Adderall XR auth generic to Prasco about 6 years ago. That makes no sense that Prasco would sell Teva’s Adderall.
STI’s research is bogus too, 100-500 FTE’s, 100-500M annual rev? This is taking a shot in the dark. They might have some minor insights, but they are completely guessing where it wouldn’t be reliable.
I’m not sure how much of Takeda’s Adderall ER rev was from US business vs other geographies. Don’t think any CNS stimulants are permitted in Japan so rev would be from other geographies.
Prasco/Burel Adderall ER launch would be for fiscal Q4 to add some nice revenue growth for the year.
How does DEA allocate API for this? Not sure Don’t think simply takes over Takeda’s quota.
Just remember that valuation from years ago was based on SequestOx and that IP succeeding and creating “treadmill” of products to fill pipeline and launch with branded drugs.
This is a completely different company focused on generics that have lower profitability, more competition and will yield lower forward industry multiple.
I can’t see Nasrat needing to pursue another valuation, but rather expect him to let the markets do their job as company progresses launching and filing new products, improving financials, etc. Looking forward to seeing what products are going to fill pipeline after last CNS gets filed (assuming next year).