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The VIX was 8ish back in 1995 with the SP 500 in the 400's after being in a similar 18 month range. What the bears dont tell you is that the VIX ran from 8ish to the 30's from 1995 to 2000 with the SP 500 better than tripling from the 400's to the 1500 level over that 5 year timeframe.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$Vxo,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[d19940617,20050617][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[d19940617,20050617][pb50!b200!f][vc...
>>>We'll see. I've got some of that shiny stuff as a result, even though it's all just rocks to me <G> >>>
AJ im not at all a gold bug...rarely trade that and silver but did pickup some PAAS and NEM early in the week based on their inverse h/s bases in place on the 6 month charts. Now looking at the big picture I may hold onto those positions a while. Posted a few more gold related setups on my list tonight.
Perhaps we'll resume our lower USD/higher SP 500 trade that we saw last year.
Catch you tomorrow...need some major zzzzzzz's!
Based on this triangle gold looks like its headed to $485 over the next 2-3 months. Expect the US Dollar to top out somewhere between 89 and 91 over the next few weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040316,20050616][pb50!b200!f][v...
AJ looks like Gold and Silver are setting up for significant upside advances in the weeks ahead. I've had an 89/90 objective based on pattern measurement on the US Dollar chart for the past couple of months. Now I think Gold and Silver are setting up for significant upside moves with the Dollar likely start heading back down over the next few weeks. The Gold chart specifically projects to the $485 level. No negative divergence yet on the Dollar but my expectation is that it kicks in sooner than later.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[w,a]decayiay[dd][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J48706395...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040316,20050616][pb50!b200!f][v...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$silver,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[d20040316,20050616][pb50!b200!f]...
TC looks good but I wouldnt be surprised to see a move to 35ish to set the right shoulder in the days ahead.
AJ excellent work....I came up with the same thing on the 5 minute. Wouldnt be surprised to see a down open followed by a better close tomorrow. Normally a bullish setup.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]ihcayiay[d20050413,20050613][pb50!b200!f][...
Hi EK...
The channel break if this is a 4th down is not unusual. The pullback still looks corrective at this point. Recent gains seem to be sticky here. Many stocks are forming some nice consolidative patterns. If you study the daily chart it looks like we may be forming an inverse h/s pattern and are currently forming a right side shoulder. The left shoulder is at 2023ish so a move to/around that level wouldnt be surprising. Currently finding some support off the 20 SMA here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
AJ lets see how this plays out...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,2...
I agree on your Dow and SP take....the patterns were ripe but the Nasdaq looks like it wants to form some type of right side shoulder before making another attempt. Wouldn't be surprised to see a shakeout move into the low 2k area before this reverses. This has the potential to form some type of inverse h/s pattern here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
After 206 Naz upside points trough to peak the past 6 weeks you've got to expect some pullback off major 2100 resistance. Not sure thats what I'd term a "best opportunity" to breakout. I suspect a decent pullback here would provide a much better opportunity to clear 2100 in time.
AJ I tend to agree...I've been targeting 2050-70 for this move down. I think the rising 20 SMA currently 2030 and moving up daily should cap the downside. Our uptrend channel support comes in around 2060-2062. Dow has very strong support at the 10375-10400 level. Would be nice to see these levels tested. Looks like 2100 has set a nice potential neckline.
TC I picked up some WBSN...love that setup. Many stocks look ready to jump resistance if we can clear 2110. On the daily chart there is no overhead from 2110 to 2191 the 52 week high. Picked up some PCAR today.
Note the "Thin Zone" between 2100 and 2191.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Here's PCAR...forming a bullish handle.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=pcar,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[d20040726,20051226][pb50!b200!f][vc...
AJ cashed out quite a few longs today on our test towards 2100 today...a great spot to pause/pullback to form some type of right side shoulder. Dow is also probing its neckline area at 10,560. Still in a few commodity plays. Should the market clear 2110ish not much overhead until the 2191 level. Think it would be much more healthy for a dip here to reset things some....of course the market could care less what I think <g>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,...
IACI is forming a nice looking Inverse H/S pattern here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=iaci,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Triple digits for RIMM? Looks likely based on this triangle...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=rimm,uu[h,a]whcayiay[d20040531,20051231][pb50!b200!f][vc...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=rimm,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J51740381...
AJ if that small triangle breaks to the upside it would be the catalyst for the neckline clearance....personally wouldn't be surprised to see resolution of this pattern within the week.
Interesting times as always :)
Triangle forming just below the neckline of a potential Inverse H/S pattern on the INDU 60 minute and daily charts. 10,560 is key resistance....10375-400 support for this pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,...
Usually means its going higher...
Short interest continues at record levels. Not many believe....therefore it is.
AJ looks like the SOX took out its 2 year downtrendline today...a headfake or the real thing???
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[df][pb50!b200!f][vc60][j51500969...
Also check out the potential Inverse H/S patterns forming on many key indices here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!l...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djusgm,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$djusgs,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,...
The Wilshire looks to have cleared its pivot on the close...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$wlsh,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,...
Good Trading!
Osprey thanks for your take. Always enjoy your insights. You're right on the money with your comments.
Guzbug thank you...interesting to note that on that Monthly SP 500 chart we turned up right off the 20 MA which is what you usually see in a continuing bullish trend and vice versa during bearish trends.
Interesting big picture view of the SP 500...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]mhcayiay[d19970520,20050520][pb50!b200!b20!f...
Setups list updated along with market commentary...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936
Lots of potential for inverse h/s patterns to form here should we finally get a mild pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J5020529...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dot,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]ehcayiay[d63][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=swh,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][J...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$xbd,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iub14!la12,2...
Bullish lateral consolidation before the next leg higher....max downside to backtest the moving averages before heading to 2100. Too many hedge funds likely trapped here.
Jerry I think we get more of a lateral move slight down with a possible backtest of the MA's here. Lots of trapped shorts from lower levels should hold this up. Check out SHLD forming a bullish triangle. The worst I'm looking for on the downside is 1985-2010 where strong support comes into play...may be more of a lateral move before the next leg to 2100...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=shld,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J51120655...
Jerry interesting big picture look here (3 year chart)....falling wedge breakout. Borrowed by morenmore over at Clearstation.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=6550052&usernm=morenmore
Jerry not much resistance on the Comp until 2100ish. Expect we get there sooner than later. Dow and SP breaking out of double bottom higher low patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
RIMM forming a large triangle....key pivot 78. Look out if she clears.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=rimm,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Naz took out its 5 month downtrendline today along with the 50/200 SMA's....watch for the potential for an inverse h/s pattern to form either at 2020 or 2100.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[w,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][iub14!...
Molly I wouldn't read much into the light volume. Where are the sellers. Most of the best moves start on light volume after the sellers washout. Consider this chart and analogy.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][J312723...
$DOT firming up in a nice inverse H/S base here...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$dot,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dc][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
Inverse H/S patterns forming on the Dow/SP here....on the short term charts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9][...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$indu,uu[h,a]hhcayiay[d5][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ila12,26,9]...
Bearish wedge forming on the Nasdaq....if it breaks 1965 look out below imo. Negative divergence at price highs.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]ehcayiay[d40][pb50!b200!b20!f][vc60][ila12...
AJ great call on NDX 1448 tag to set a right shoulder on the p.m. dip. BTW looks like the Dollar broke out of its triangle barely clearing its pivot.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$usd,uu[h,a]decayiay[dd][pf][vc60][ila12,26,9][J48706395...
Currently short commodities and long some tech.
Semis/tech and oil tend to trade inverse of one another historically....I think thats what we were seeing today. Keep watch on the 25 pivot on this play the next few sessions.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=intc,uu[h,a]dhcayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60]<i[J505416....