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I can only imagine how volatile WAMUQ will be once/if SJ is ruled on favorably on 03/04! The volume should be, well, voluminous and the pps should flourish – initially! Day Traders (who do not give a whit about settlement) and regular Joe’s (who do not even know or care to know the WaMu story) will be on this like stink on a monkey!
I will not even hazard to guess where the pps will spike to but rest assured, it will spike, and then we will see a chart of peaks and valleys for a day or two! Some folk will be trying to assess what they really own and some longs – yes, even longs - will be taking some nice profits with portions of their holdings!
When the dust settles, we will obviously be sitting on much higher support and resistance levels!
All IMHO and just playing out a favorable SJ ruling scenario! Will JMW cooperate on 03/04? I say a 27/73 % probability with 27% being YES!
Common Mary! Prove me wrong! … rs
UZ. To clarify, Kirsten’s email to me stated that she did not have any further articles planned regarding the EC, not WaMu in general. Now it is curios that she has not produced anything of substance for a while. Her last effort on 02/05 was regarding Cantwell’s epiphany, no digging was involved. The article prior to that (01/28 I believe) referenced the EC and was the last “hard” article that she has gifted us!
I hope that no one has gotten her tongue! It could just be due to the fact that the PSI and the IG of the FDIC, have all docs and info under severe lockup!
We shall see! … rs
Fish et al! We are not playing Chess, but more of a bastardized hybrid game of Clue and Password IMO! We try to parse JMW’s words as to “ASAP” and “no more emergencies”! We deciphered why she did not rule on SJ pre-EC and now are in the midst of trying to interpret her non ruling on SJ last month which was post-EC! Now we are speculating that she may further delay her ruling(s) on 03/04 due to the benefit of giving both parties more time to hack out a “settlement”!
As far as the EC, we are completely in the dark regarding what they been doing! We do not know whether we will see period court docs as to their legal dealings or even an update via the Venable website!
I could go on but I think one gets the gist! This is not a rant (sorry if it sounds that way) but just an observation! There is sooooo much that we are not privy to that it eats us up inside and we all seek - as one - to piece the perverse puzzle parts in place!
This is a great board (the best) with fervent minds and we have been doing our best to play the aforementioned CLUE/PASSWORD romp!
The game needs to come to an end soon however! … rs
Fish. IMO, the MM’s opened trading a penny down from last night in anticipation of the day-traders inevitable mass exit. They knew the DT’s were going to bale today (they do not like holding over a weekend) so opening trading a penny down had its immediate shake effect and they sold off dropping the price 2 cents (.26) within twenty minutes!
The remainder of the day should be interesting to say the least and will tell us who truly wants to be in this for the weekend! … rs
Speaking of JPM, check out the intraday chart!
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=webchart&btn=s_ok&ihsymbol=&ihpagelist=Quote&symbol=NYSE%3AJPM&s_ok=Get+Chart&period=0&drawmode=2&size=19&volume=1
They are having a hell of a day … rs
She can buy all she wants! Her last email to me indicated that she would NOT be covering the EC any longer! Have not heard from her for a while (she is a rock star now) but I would imagine that something is brewing in her investigative mind! … rs
Tomorrow should give us a much clearer picture of where we stand as we march into March! Shortly after 3:00 this afternoon, the day- traders sold en masse - taking the pps down 2 cents in approx 40 minutes! The pps recovered nicely in the last 10 minutes.
Will we see more DT action tomorrow? Probably, but on a smaller scale (Friday)! The last hour, IMO, will be telling as all hell! Once the DT’s exit for the weekend, I expect many new “retail” people to enter as not to be left out in case of a weekend settlement! Now a few may bale on Monday if settlement is not rendered, but more new “retail” should be coming aboard in anticipation of implicit fireworks on 03/04! Not bad!
Now as “uzual” has said, the agenda is the key. If SJ and/or MARTA is adjourned, well - not good. If all items remain on the docket and JMW does not rule (once again), well – not good!
I have not used the judge’s full initials since last September but I will now as I implore THJMW to generate a ruling (or two) next Thursday! I mean – what the hell? … rs
FYI: New Court Docs:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100225000000000005.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100225000000000004.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100225000000000003.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100225000000000002.pdf
Have not read them completely yet! … rs
It would be nice to at least climb back to .29 so we start tomorrow with a little momentum! … rs
Yep – it’s the day-traders that I warned of earlier this morning! … rs
I think that you have it in reverse. Folks are cashing out portions here and investing there – LOL! … rs
You may very well be correct JHD! Initially, using only my feeble memory, I thought that the EC was granted in mid January. However, after pulling up some articles, it was not granted until January 28th!
Oh well – still not complaining over the recent action here!
BTW: Are pre and post shares handled differently! LOL! … rs
Agreed but the FDIC thus far seems to be rather cat-like enjoying nine lives! I have not been keeping an official tally but hopefully last month was #9 - offed!
Today’s new DOC has added additional fuel to the fire has it not? … rs
Court hearing, Omnibus, 03/04/10 11:30 AM (Del). On the agenda:
• 6th Omnibus (Substantive) Claims Objections: includes MARTA $39B claim #3515
• 20th Omnibus (Substantive) Claims Objections: includes WMB Bondholders $5.5B claims #2480, 3710, 3711.
• FDIC-R motion (11/17) to modify automatic stay so they can take possession of the $4 billion cash.
These items can of course be adjourned but we shall see … rs
Not much. Just the BIGGEST court hearing to date!!! … rs
Very volatile first hour! IMO we saw many day-traders enter yesterday (fueled by a few penny stock forums) and it looks like they are still playing now. It makes for a nice flip - if one is so inclined – but dilutes the true sentiment of how retail is approaching the impending 03/04 hearing! … rs
R. Personally, I do not think that a “settlement” will ever be leaked. That monumental event will be locked up tighter than a drum!
Seems something is brewing however … rs
I for one am wondering what is attributable to this run! Historically, it is a bit early for a run leading into an important court hearing. Is it …
• Yesterdays “Notice of Production of Documents”
• Shorts heavily Covering
• Impending (leaked) favorable Court Doc
Perhaps a combo deal of all of the above!
Gotta love it! … rs
Jest! You can lead a horse to water, but you cannot guarantee that said horse will purchase WAMUQ shares!
Time for bed folks!
Have a great night Jest and all! . .. rs
I am not of legal mind but my take indicates that the documents have been garnered! And what documents! Holy Hell!
Great to see this moving along! … rs
Fresh Docs:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100223000000000004.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100223000000000005.pdf
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100223000000000006.pdf
have not read them yet! … rs
EDIT: pdf 5 very interesting!
The US Trustee would more than likely have NOT pushed for an EC if numbers weren’t slowly indicating an A>L probability/possibility! Remember, we were all wondering why an EC was not established in the early days here. Even though the theoretical numbers were there, the outstanding claims were not in favor of equity! Over the months, we have seen many large claims dropped making it more favorable that some settlement monies will be available for shareholders!
The legal teams can only base their arguments on current information, not scenarios. Some 12, 9, or even 3 months ago, the current “numbers” were not in our favor. IMO, once the US Trustee (with some nudging from Joyce and company) realized that current numbers were significantly improving, allowed the formation of an EC, saving our arses! … rs
Simple answer - because it is currently undervalued some $15.78!
Seriously, read the iBox here! No single post will convince you of the potential value here! … rs
What makes you think that the “sealed documents” contain settlement info? I guess that is the question here! Perhaps I have missed something, but I do not think so.
Elaborate more please … rs
There has been no official offer since just before seizure (09/08) and that was approx $8 per share which was deemed unacceptable!
You and your influential friend should start reading the iBox here …
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=11133
Very informative … rs
Why do the “sealed docs” make you lean towards that notion? Sealed documents or not, trial or no trial, sunny or cloudy - a SHARE is a SHARE is a SHARE!
Please elaborate! … rs
PS: A SHARE is a SHARE is a SHARE!
Correct JHD. I cannot think of his name at the moment however! … rs
Edit:
http://www.venable.com/gregory-a-cross/
TY ABH
What a surprise and a hell of a hearing! How many tens of thousands of dollars in lawyer fees are billable for that 4 minute blockbuster? LOL! … rs
Just thinking out loud and not wanting to be selfish but …
Say settlement numbers are currently being crunched as most of us assume! A static amount is targeted towards the creditors! The EC makes sure that we, equity, see a chunk of cash as well!
OK – if a finite lump sum of cash is targeted for distribution to equity holders, it would seem to me that the less shareholders and/or amount of shares owned overall – the better for us individually! As some say here – do the math! LOL!
This begs the question, is our EC fighting for a certain pps target respective to all classes (U’s = $8, K’s = $20, etc), or will a lump some be apportioned and dispensed?
Seems to me that if a lump sum is divvied up between all respective classes of shareholders, once again – a selfish investor would want to see people selling now! We would hope for NO ruling by JMW regarding the SJ! Perhaps JW and the Socialist4change guy have had it right all along! Scare people to sell and reap higher rewards at settlement time! LOL!
This could just be a hair-brained theory on my part but thought I would toss it out anyway for public consumption! … rs
I readily agree that the flippers are becoming few and far between! At this point it is a very risky venture to flip!
However, it still does not explain the MM’s change of heart during the last week of low volume trading!
Time to snooze! Good luck hardasset and everyone aboard! … rs
The thing that I find profoundly peculiar in this repose between hearings is the fact that the pps has more than held its own - even with very low volume! In the past, the MM’s have used low volume periods to agonizingly drag this down slowly and steadily. Perhaps I have too much time on my hands but I am bordering on fascination as to why they have holstered their guns as of late and have let this trade in a normal manner recently!
Once interest (volume) kicks in again on say, 02/26 into the first trading days of March, the pps could build attractively! With a ruling or two by JMW on 03/04 – well, I’ll stop here! … rs
Personally, I find it as being neutral to out interests! Even the least savvy of JPM employees (ex-WaMu employees) holding WaMu shares will find that they can roll-over their shares into an IRA!
Not much more to look into IMO! … rs
Here is a link to the partial article …
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/02/22/story4.html
… rs
No argument here Matt! The problem is, do I hate the criminals less with a $20+ pps settlement or do I hate them for the rest of my life with an $6 pps settlement!
I would do very well with hating them eternally with a settlement of >$6 pps!
Sounds weird but we have all entertained these thoughts have we not? How much and how long is it worth to see the FDIC savaged, Jamie Dimon nailed, and Sheila Bair run thru the muck? My heart says I want that - but my mind-set and pocket book screams settle this damned thing ASAP!
IMO, I think that we are near the end! … rs
Damn straight! We are on the same page UZ!
We have been living out an historic event in the making! I feel that I am both proud and lucky to be involved in this play!
The FDIC IMO has dirtier hands here than JPM and JPM’s hands are filthy to a fault!
03/04/10 cannot come soon enough for us! … rs
IMO, Weil was going to accept a lowball offer from JPM/FDIC just before year-end 09’! I come to that conclusion as he had desperately tried to disband our EC since its infancy thru its official formation! JPM and the FDIC would have “saved face” by outpouring a relatively small payout to satisfy Weil which would have producing little or no public airing and by the way - screwing commons!
So now that the EC is here to stay! Settlement talks have had to recommence from the ground up! You mention that the EC may be playing hardball for large dollars or may take this to trial. Sadly, we are not privy to what the EC is doing.
Even if the EC threatens to take this to trial (if they even can assume such a strong-arm position on their own) I believe that JPM/FDIC will agree to even loftier settlement arrangements that will satisfy the EC! While satisfying equity, there would more than likely be a clause in the settlement documents that eschews any wrong doing on the perpetrators parts once again, “saving face”!
I think that we can all agree that JPM and the FDIC will settle this before going to trial where soiled laundry would finally be aired to the public, thereby staining their reputations! Up to now, only a wee percentage of people know about the dastardly deeds - mainly, WaMu shareholders and a few miscellaneous reporters/bloggers! A trial would de facto attract the mainstream media and will make the Clarence Thomas pubic hair hearings look like a walk in the park! Neither JPM, nor the FDIC in particular, can afford the whole tortuous story unveiled to the general public! Although I do not have a whole hell of a lot of faith in the general public, they do love a juicy story and this one is for the books!
Talk about people sprinting to their banks and pulling out money? Next investment, super-sized mattress businesses!
GLTA … rs
Frankly, you could have knocked me over with a feather if you would have told me that WAMUQ would be trading above .20 on 02/19 in this “dead zone” between hearings!
Date Open High Low Last Change Volume % Change
02/19/10 0.2050 0.2200 0.2050 0.2140 +0.0063 5477024 +3.03%
02/18/10 0.1970 0.2090 0.1921 0.2077 +0.0097 6238700 +4.90%
02/17/10 0.2090 0.2100 0.1955 0.1980 -0.0100 6512000 -4.81%
02/16/10 0.2090 0.2190 0.2030 0.2080 +0.0020 5294500 +0.97%
02/12/10 0.1880 0.2140 0.1880 0.2060 +0.0145 6998200 +7.57%
Low volume yet positive pps during this period shows me that shares are locked (less flipping) and the MM’s are playing this very close to the vest!
If Judge Mary would just give us some lovin’ on 03/04/10? … rs
Anything is possible as we longs have seen just about everything! March promises to be a very productive month so a settlement in April or early May could very well transpire.
I am basing this on nothing more than a sneaking-suspicion! … rs