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Speaking of Friday....what to do with our Q? Any opinion on RMBS? I sold it today.
Tues Dec 30th 2003
Neutral Mode with Upside Limited
By Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader.com
It’s no coincidence that it’s Tuesday and the markets are resting. I hesitate to suggest that this would be a turnaround Tuesday, but oftentimes when you get rallies in the proceeding 3-4 days into a Tuesday, Tuesday seems to be the reaction day.
In this particular case, the indices are consolidating right at their highs, but my work suggests that the indices are tired at this point, and whether not there’s any selling pressure that comes to bear or it’s just a little bout of profit taking that presses the indices a little lower, I’m not sure at this point. I do know my work is telling me I shouldn’t be long here. That’s not to say we should be short. There have been no indications of trend breaks yet. So basically we’re in neutral mode. People who are long should use relatively tight stops.
Specifically, the March E-Mini S&P marginally broke 1105.50 this morning, went down to 1105 even, and managed to hold there. It’s now stuck in the middle of its range for the day roughly between 1109 and 1105. Right now it’s at 1107. There’s not a lot going on, although the underlying technicals suggest that if it tries to move higher, more than likely it will run out of gas on the way up and stall in the 1109-11 area. I don’t see much upside right from here.
How much downside is there? My suspicion is that later this afternoon the indices will come down and break 1105 and poke around in the 1102-1100 area. Now it’s only when you get down into 1100/1099 area where things could get tricky, because the 1100/1099 area represents the trendline from the most recent significant upside pivot. That would be the December 15 low at 1065.50. The December 15 low was the second low, remember, since the major pivot low on December 10 at 1051 ½, but that trendline runs through 1100, give or take a point, later today, and I suspect that a test of that low initially will survive.
That is to say the E-mini March S&P will hold 1100 and then try to rally from there, and we’ll have to see where that goes. Tomorrow is a full day of trading and Friday is a half day, but they naturally straddle New Years Day. So chances are there will be very sparse action.
The question is whether whoever is trading will be taking profits or adding to long positions. Right now my suspicion is there’ll be more pressure than strength and this is not the time to be long.
As for the QQQs, they actually made new post-March recovery highs this morning at 36.62, and are right now trading at 36.37. It looks to me without a doubt that on a micro trading basis that the Qs have peaked and are range trading at a relatively high level above 36, but likely will come down some more.
My suspicion is that if the Qs break 36 1/4, then they’ll go down to the 36.15-.12 area. That area is important because that’s where the indices took off yesterday afternoon and went straight up to 36.50. So keep your eye on 36.15-.12. If 36.12 breaks, I think you’ll find you’ll be back at 35.80 in a hurry, and then the situation would suggest that we have already started a pullback and corrective sequence that has a ways to go.
Until and unless 36 ¼ is broken, however, all bets are off on the downside, and we are merely just resting. Whether or not this turns out to be a turnaround Tuesday depends on whether that 36.15-.12 support area holds. If it does hold, then it’s conceivable we go back up to 36.70. But right now my overall work tells me the upside is limited and there is more risk to being long than anything else, even though we do not want to be short.
Zeev, a high today on QCOM or a hold through tomorrow?? Thanks.
OT: My son's favorite gift is an Amazon email gift certificate. Well, he also request I buy him the town of Tortilla Flats on EBAY (his other fav site), but I told him maybe next year. Here's what he wrote:
Ma, for Hanukkah, I want Tortilla Flat.
Title of item: HISTORIC TOWN OF TORTILLA FLAT, ARIZONA
Seller: realtorsherri7
Starts: Oct-07-03 12:53:23 PDT
Ends: Jan-05-04 11:53:23 PST
Price: Starts at $5,550,000.00
To bid on the item, go to: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2352003025
Thanks Jerry.
So Jerry, is AMZN done for the day?? Maybe a buy next week?
SNDK taking off...
op, you think we remain up for tomorrow?
When you say short term ($35 for the QQQ) do you mean tomorrow or later in the week?
thanks. it doesn't really look too bad....but we'll see
Where do you see elx going?? I'm hoping for 30., maybe 31.
thanks op
bought ELX here at 27.4
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Nasdaq composite index flirted with 2,000 for the first time in nearly two years Wednesday and the Dow Jones industrials approached the 10,000 level as investors eagerly picked up stocks following a strong productivity report but then grew cautious.
The high-tech dominated Nasdaq reached 2,000 and the Dow came within 58 points of 10,000 in the early afternoon before both indexes retreated and closed mixed. Analysts said investors were optimistic but choosing to take their time in sending stocks significantly higher.
``Folks are really starting to believe in the sustainability of the economic recovery,'' said Richard J. Nash, chief market strategist at Victory Capital Management. ``The productivity numbers were just spectacular'' and should bring ``another good surge in corporate profits.''
Stocks have risen in recent days, partly on investor optimism for a stronger economy. December also is typically strong for stocks as investors put year-end bonuses and dividends to work, although some analysts wonder if shares have risen much too far, too fast.
Russ Koesterich, U.S. equity strategist at State Street Corp. in Boston, said the Nasdaq 2,000 and Dow 10,000 barriers represent somewhat of a psychological breakthrough for investors. That might explain why the Nasdaq retreated once it reached the milestone.
Still, he said investors were upbeat and that in terms of valuation levels, the 1,075 level for the S&P would be particularly significant.
``Investors are looking for reasons to buy and they're looking to buy risk,'' such as tech shares, Koesterich said. ``We have the potential to close higher since December is normally a strong month. ... But in the latter part of the first quarter of '04, the market might need to take a breather.''
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Wall-Street.html
Zeev, do you think the bu$$ has any more upside this week or is it in a stall? I believe you gave a range, but it landed even today.
Wal-Mart: Black Friday sales hit record
Sales at the nation's biggest retailer were 6.3% higher than the same day a year ago.
November 29, 2003: 9:56 AM EST
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said on Saturday that sales at its U.S. stores reached a record $1.52 billion on the day after Thanksgiving, up from $1.43 billion on the same day a year earlier.
Top-selling categories were home electronics, small appliances and toys, Wal-Mart said in a statement.
The world's largest retailer by revenues had given a cautious outlook for the holiday shopping season, saying consumer spending was not improving as much as some analysts had hoped.
Last year, many retailers reported very strong after-Thanksgiving sales, but demand tapered off after that, and the holiday season generated the smallest sales gain in more than 30 years.
Gearing up for the holidays
On Friday, the biggest reailers, including Wal-Mart, Target, J.C. Penny and Best Buy, scheduled early openings of 6 a.m. local time.
Black Friday" gets its name from the hope that on that day merchants' financial statements will move out of the red and into the black.
The National Retail Federation (NRF), the industry's largest trade group, expects industry sales for the key November and December shopping period to grow 5.7 percent, the largest rise since 1999, to $217.4 billion.
Sales last year grew just 2.2 percent for the same period, the weakest performance in more than a decade. But despite theNRF's bullish outlook, some industry watchers are cautious.
The consensus among analysts is that holiday spending this year will be solid, if not spectacular, averaging a smaller 4 percent growth.
oops. 58.00.....?
op, what about our Q?? can we coax her back up to 48 anytime soon?
North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts October 2003 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 1.00
PR Newswire - November 19, 2003 18:02
SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov 19, 2003 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $871 million in orders in October 2003 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.00, according to the October 2003 Express Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill ratio of 1.00 means that the value of new orders equals the value of product billed for the period.
The three-month average of worldwide bookings in October 2003 was $871.1 million. The bookings figure is 12 percent above the revised September 2003 level of $778.8 million and 12 percent above the $775 million in orders posted in October 2002.
The three-month average of worldwide billings in October 2003 was $873.4 million. The billings figure is eight percent above the revised September 2003 level of $811 million and 13 percent below the October 2002 billings level of $1 billion.
"This the first time since August 2002 that the ratio of bookings and billings has reached parity. The October data is a welcome confirmation of improving industry conditions," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "While the industry must still contend with a challenging economic environment, there is increasing evidence that a recovery is mounting for the semiconductor equipment market."
The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
Billings Bookings Book-to-Bill
(Three-month avg.) (Three-month avg.)
May 2003 805.4 723.5 0.90
June 2003 776.5 722.3 0.93
July 2003 785.9 706.9 0.90
August 2003 792.3 731.8 0.92
September 2003
(final) 811.1 778.8 0.96
October 2003
(prelim.) 873.4 871.1 1.00
The data contained in this release was compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.
The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks billings and orders worldwide of North American-based manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and orders of the chips themselves. The November 2003 Express Report is scheduled for publication on December 18, 2003 (subject to change).
SEMI is a global industry association serving more than 2,500 companies that develop and provide manufacturing technology and materials to the global semiconductor, flat panel display, MEMS and related microelectronics industries. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, San Jose (Calif.), Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. For more information, visit www.semi.org.
SOURCE SEMI
investors, Dan Tracy, Ph.D., +1-408-943-7987, or
dtracy@semi.org, or media, Jonathan Davis, +1-408-943-6937, or
jdavis@semi.org, both of SEMI
http://www.prnewswire.com
The mitzvah cult?
Anyone else doing well with ELX? I was lucky enough to make a few great trades today. That baby was smokin'!!
ok Zeev, there's that GERN giving me the bucker plus. time to sell????
Maybe GERN does have a life after all!
After 2+ days of down do you think the markets are a bit oversold?
luckily, no nails broken with QLGC today!
ok, i'll hang right along with ya! how long are your nails? g
looks like I'd better get rid of the GERN
<<what are your plans, LTBH or grub a buck?>>
I'm hoping you'll give me a suggestion!! Actually, hoping for some grub - bios don't look happy though.
bought some GERN here at 11.70
Hey Op,
You mentioned QLGC wanting to hit 60$. Do you have a time frame for that? Say, in the next 6-12 months or sooner? Gotta know....
Titan
<< I have an indicator I watch that has flagged 2065 as the next major high, possibly followed by 2212 COMP. That indicator has been pretty flawless the past 6-months and has helped keep me from being on the wrong side of this market.>>
Do you have an indication as to when COMP might hit your 2065+??
MSFT showdown??
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) (26.00 -0.10)
MICROSOFT faces a major showdown in Brussels this week when it gets a last chance to defend itself against European Union regulators' charges it abused its dominance of desktop computer operating systems. The European Commission will listen to the software giant at a closed-door hearing, which from Wednesday to Friday will give both Microsoft and its critics a chance to argue their case. "This is going to be the biggest set-piece battle since the oral hearing in GE-Honeywell case," said Simon Baxter, head of European competition for the law firm Clifford Chance. The hearing will help the Commission judge charges that Microsoft used Windows's dominance of desktop operating systems to squeeze out rival software firms in the markets for playing music and video files and running basic computer networks. (Reuters 05:56 AM ET 11/09/2003 More...)
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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) (26.00 -0.10)
Video games rule, but kids still enjoy playing with traditional toys, according to a survey by YAHOO INC.'s Web site for kids. The list of top ten toys, conducted by Yahooligans, was compiled from 130,000 votes from kids aged 7 to 12 years old. Electronic toys took the top three spots in the poll, with MICROSOFT CORP.'s Xbox narrowly beating out NINTENDO CO. LTD. Game Boy Advance SP and SONY CORP.'s PlayStation 2 System coming in third. "This list speaks volumes to the success of these items for the holidays," said Jason Hovey, senior producer at Yahooligans. "It's not industry leaders, experts or even manufacturers weighing in. It's just kids. And it helps parents know what to shop for kids in this age group." (Reuters 06:22 PM ET 11/09/2003 More...)
For you QLGC-holics:
Zacks Buy List Highlights: New Century Financial, RF Micro Devices, Nike, and QLogic Corporation
CHICAGO, Nov 5, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) --Zacks.com releases anotherlist of stocks that are currently members of the coveted Zacks #1Ranked list which has produced an average annual return of +33.6%since 1988 and has gained +13.3% annually since 2000 as the marketshave been tumbling down. Among the #1 ranked stocks today we highlightthe following companies: New Century Financial Corporation(NASDAQ:NCEN) and RF Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:RFMD). Further theyannounced #2 Rankings (Buy) on two other widely held stocks: Nike Inc.(NYSE:NKE) and QLogic Corporation (NASDAQ:QLGC). To see the full Zacks#1 Ranked list or the rank for any other stock then visit.http://www.zacksrank1bw.zacks.com
QLogic Corporation (NASDAQ:QLGC) simplifies the process ofnetworking storage for OEMs, resellers and system integrators with theonly end-to-end infrastructure in the industry, consisting ofaward-winning controller chips, host bus adapters, network switchesand management software to move data from the storage device throughthe fabric to the server. Net revenues on a GAAP basis for the secondquarter of fiscal 2004 were a record $132.3 million, up +5%sequentially from the $126.2 million reported in the first quarter offiscal 2004. Net income on a GAAP basis for the second quarter offiscal 2004 was a record $34.2 million, or 35 cents per share on adiluted basis. This was an increase of +8% sequentially from the $31.7million, or 33 cents per share on a diluted basis, reported in thefirst quarter of fiscal 2004. Analysts were pleased with the company'sperformance during the second quarter and the achievement of recordrevenues and net income. The continued growth in pro forma revenuesduring the second quarter was the result of a significant increase insales of their Fibre Channel products, which increased +8%sequentially and +34% over the comparable quarter last year. Investorslooking for a company serving up strong financials and heading in theright direction should look into QLGC.
hey Zeev, what did you take home with you tonight?? JCOM? Any thoughts on QCOM for this week?
from Harry's Closing Comments (Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com)
<<Stepping back and reviewing the patterns, once again the Nasdaq 100 has the feel of a topping pattern, but it could also be a consolidation of the big run-up we had, and we’ll see early next week which way the market resolves itself.
There’s a similar occurrence on the S&P 500, which looks a little bit more bullish but also has not broken out. The numbers we’re going to look for on resistance are, on the Nasdaq 100, first 1425 and then 1432. The S&P 500 had several tops around the 1053 range. Those are the levels we’ll be watching for early next week.>>
JCOM looking a little sicker than usual today. What's up?
*DJ Oppenheimer Starts Microsoft At Buy >MSFT
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 31, 2003 09:24 ET (14:24 GMT)
hey op. thanks for the heads-up this morning. i too sold some, then bought more on it's way down. hoping to sell that in the morning. what are you thinking about Q tonight??
Tomorrow, Saddam.
The old men.