No, I don't think KLAC goes up from here. We should be good for low 30's at least and then I think the Nassacre breaks those lows. Today was not a good day for earnings. Even bellweathers like CAH and SYMC had crappy earnings, let alone KLAC, PSFT, QCOM, OVER, etc. Valuations of these companies are sky high and there is no growth on the horizon. Even IBM, MSFT, and INTC earnings were bad despite the euphoria when they came out. I was long then and actually somewhat surprised the earnings carried those stocks as far as they did but now it's time to correct, and the more we go up the more vicious the correction will be. I'm quite short now.

Valuations will come back into play very soon. Would not be surprised if today was the top.

I believe KLAC just brought down guidance for next quarter.

KLAC EPS .14 vs expectations of .12 --> REV $304M vs expectations of $304M. Guidance still to come.

I have been stray on and off this year (in fact up until late last week) but I believe this is the last gasp.

Yes, I just closed a non-Japan Asia long fund I had on Thursday and hope to get in it at lower prices after the Nassacre hits.

Japan taking a beating tonight. C'mon back to the bear den MLSOFT. We'll keep the light on for you. TSUNAMI could be right around the corner.

I thought we would get the TSUNAMI indicator on the close on Thursday. Now do you remember the reliability of the TSUNAMI? I remember a post I thought on this board that indicated how accurate it was in the past. Do you have the details and thanks for updating us with Don Sew's info?

Fred,

I remember a couple weeks ago you or someone else posted the reliability of the Tsunami indicator and I remember some pretty impressive stats like:

1) When it hits, it's accurate the last 14 of 16 times.
2) On average the market declines 18-20% from the beginning of the Tsunami
3) We have only had an INTRADAY Tsunami signal vs. a CLOSING signal to date. A CLOSING signal is more reliable and we are close but not there yet.
4) How many Tsunami indicators have we had in the past 5 years?

I may have butchered the actual info here so if you can, can you post the actual details? I know this is a very powerful indicator and I'm back on the short side as I stopped out of all my longs this morning.

South Korea up 3% liking easing tensions along with positive reaction to INTC and MSFT data. Non Japan Asia funds may continue to move as I bet SARS concerns diminish.

Woudn't be surprised to see a 50 point up day on the NAS tomorrow that puts in the high for a long time. This would assume INTC and MSFT are decent. Then the euphoria wears off and maybe we finally look at valuations and tank a couple hundred NAS points.

April 16, 2002 was a 50 point up day on the NAS.

Thanks Phineas.

Doesn't this change your strategy?

What does INTC have on Thursday?

Agree.

Yes, big time. Rally could have some legs today.

Not in MMM. Just commenting on SKON04's message indicating MMM may be a rabbit for the DOW.

Look at MMM daily chart. It moved up 50 cents in the last 5 minutes.

MMM moving here. Looks like they're pumping. Would think USD needs to follow though for anything real.

Looks like Europe up, futures up, non-Japan Asia up.

GE earnings tomorrow morn will drive sentiment for the day.

Thanks AJ. I don't really have a strong opinion either way on the PPT but I know many on this thread have strong opinions that either believe in the PPT or like you think it's a poor excuse for the market going up and people should "just read the charts, etc."

This is one of the few threads that actually believes in respecting each other's opinions. Your technical analysis is great so please keep contributing and accept my apology if I misunderstood your real point about the PPT fund.

You're above this, that's all.

OK, you think everyone understands your feelings on the PPT yet or do we need to see 10 more of these charts today?

I for one am far more interested in your technical analysis and I know you're trying to make a point but enough already.

Not sure, but with all the preannouncements, and this being the first major earnings, I can only see this news as a positive. What do you think?

YHOO up AH on what appears to be a solid report. Beat EPS (.08 vs .06), Rev ($283 vs 274M) and guides full year up ($1.22B - $1.28B vs $1.2B).

Many expected a miss here in the first major earnings announcement.

Looks like Justa was right...

Anyone who follow biotech know why Genentech (DNA) is down AH on their report? On the surface looks like they beat EPS (.29 vs .28) and top line rev ($750M vs. $735M) and kept full year guidance over $3B (consensus is $3.1B).

"Dead is better,imo.Who controls the money and could finance terrorist acts as retribution is what I want to know."
--------------------------------------------------------------

As long as there is oil in the Middle East there will be tons of Saddam's, Osama's, or whoever to fund terrorist acts against the United States. That will never go away as long as the hatred remains between the two geographies and it seems it will be that way for the foreseeable future.

Running scared to the Russian embassy may be better than dead as he is effectively removed from power and seeking asylum without the big bad bully US killing him.

Maybe he sees the writing on the wall with the statue toppling and all...

This info is about 4 hours old (I heard it on TV - CNBC or Bloomberg earlier today).

Is anyone on this thread long here? It makes me a little nervous when everyone is bearish and this may be the most bearish I've seen this site for a while.

Jerry, do you have a roadmap for today? Do you think we take another run and close comfortably above where we are or do you think it's a slow crawl down from here?

Great call when most were very bearish.

Futures flying. We're in a war driven market right now. And things couldn't have gone much better for the US this weekend so barring any major war setbacks we could see a BIG rally in the next couple of days.

Dollar seems to be flying in early trade:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

Actually, I believe around 7-10 glasses of red wine a week was considered optimal in a test I looked at. Could find the details if anyone is really interested.

What happened to the Friday night "super terror" that the coalition was supposed to endure according to Iraqi propaganda? I think this put a lid on the market on Friday - creating a scare to hold long positions over the weekend.

I think all the leaders are taking their money and running while continuously telling the Iraqi people to fight while the leaders buy time to flee.

The WAR and Next Week...

Looks like this weekend is proving to show little to no opposition from the Republican Guard in Iraq and the U.S. will be able to claim a major defeat if not all out victory.

We all now have the weekend to digest this info before the futures start rolling Sunday night and markets open in Asia.

I believe this is the opportunity many were looking for to really goose the markets as the war uncertainty will certainly have dissipated.

If WMD are found today or Sunday, look for a potentially big pop. This may be the week of euphoria in the markets before the economic news becomes the focus.

I also believe these markets are a good play because I think SARS will be under control a lot quicker than the press leads you to believe. It appears to be just another strain of the flu that can now be tested successfully and will soon have vaccines and cures. Just MHO.

There is still uncertainty as to "how much resistance" we will receive in Baghdad. Rolling right in with little to no resistance is not priced in IMHO.

Also, any proof that Saddam is out of the picture vs. conjecture will be good for a big rally.

Baghdad and Saddam need to be resolved before I get heavy short.

It's just tough to hope for any major down until the Baghdad situation is resolved. Too many people are doing the comparison to the huge increase during the 1990-91 war and don't want to let this rally die yet.

Any "Kelly's Heroes" type footage of us rolling into Baghdad and you could get some huge ups along with Saddam dead / exile, etc.

Once this war ends you can kiss the market goodbye if it's still up at that point.

Had a sell order in for MERQ today at $33.12 and luckily it hit. Still could get some big Baghdad Bounce even though this economic data and warnings are horrible.

Last quarter, PSFT guided this quarter license fees (which is all that matters in software) to $125 - $135M and now they just came out and said $85M. That's a huge miss.

This stock is going to $10 - $12 soon.