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Sales in Asia flat Q to Q Sales in American down. Not what most were expecting. It gets you wondering how Europe had 14% sales gain.
Sales Patterns
Revenue in the company's Asia Pacific region was essentially flat
sequentially while revenue in the Americas region was sequentially
lower. These results primarily reflect lower than expected demand for
our desktop products among certain OEM customers.
Q4 2005 vs. Q3 2005 vs. Q4 2004
------------------- ------------------ --------------- ---------------
Asia-Pacific $5.1 billion Flat +16%
Americas $1.8 billion -3.5% -10%
Europe $2.3 billion +14% Flat
Japan $945 million +2% +11%
Key Product Trends (Sequential)
-- Total microprocessor units were higher, setting a new record.
The average selling price (ASP) was slightly lower.
-- Chipset units set a record.
-- Motherboard units were higher.
-- Flash units set a record. The ASP was higher.
-- Application processor units for products such as cellular
phones and PDAs were lower.
I heard that AJC was on CNBC today. That is good enough reason for decline today.
Tomorrow it will be 59-60 in NYC a virtual heat wave and nat gas should go down some more.
Weather forecast for next 7 days shows only one night going below freezing. I've got spring bulbs starting to sprout. Degree days are about 5% below normal for our heating season.
Most tellig thing is there is no snow cover in Buffalo, NY. They have had 1.6 of snow for JAN and only half of the 40 inches they usually have since DEC 1.Their degree days are off by 15%
RE INTC
Are you still looking for breakout above $28 on INTC
Earnings are on TUES.
Tick went over 1200+ in last 15 minutes looking like it wants to close higher but is now -200.
IMO market if making the fund managers feel like they buy now or they are missing something good.
Market going forward is somewhat suspect unless consumer sentiment gets better. It is hard to meet people who said they did better in 2005 vs 2004.
They must really like FOMC minutes about only a few rate hikes needed.
Just when you think Natural gas prices had a chance to come back down to below $10.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4568288.stm
PS Been getting some emails from gray market resellers offering special deals on Intel processors working thought the channel from those batch of buy 2, get one free specials ran before Christmas.
We are testing 30 day MA on S&P. I agree with you this should be simple test of support followed by another up leg.
RE Oil and Russia
I went to visit in-laws in South Jersey Sunday and heard a Philadelphia TV station air a commercial with a LUKOIL executive wishing everyone a Happy Holidays.
I was thinking why was a middle aged pasty white guy acting like we was like the local telephone or electric company spokesman instead of a executive for major Russian oil monopoly.
I went to their web site to check things out.
http://www.lukoilamericas.com/
They have over 2000 gas stations in US. Just about every Mobil and Getty station in NorthEast is owned by them according to their station locator.
RE Microsoft
Go to www.microsoft.com
I just need someone else to tell me their home page is advertizing a beta for a free antivirus/firewall package.
If I was Mcafee or Symantec, I would be worried.
Natural gas inventories still well within 5 year average inventory levels.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html
BKX & BTK like before leading us higher. Does sector participation broaden out or do we trade mo sideways.
RE QCOM
which would kill all the Dec. 45 calls and puts.
I was holding short PUTS and CALLS at $45 that are probably not going to be exercised but I will let you guys know Monday if someone got wacky and assigned me shares long for the nickel profit.
I pretty gun shy about being long the market after getting more stock assigned long (YHOO AMGN) in just this last month then in last 2 years combined.
If AMD leads Intel in NOV in retail sales, it is probably still be true in DEC.
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/47253.html
This will not change unless they shave about $50-75 off price of Pentium M laptop CPU price to displace AMD from retail and cable shopping channels. In the process, respective equity prices will be blow away.
I don't have good enough memory to remember last time Intel went this route.
Maybe sibling problems rather then fraternal is right terminology.
RE INTC
end of 4th Q pump getting very hard sell with new freebie this week.
To help everyone save a little extra cash this Holiday Season, I am doing all I can to help with your Intel Purchases!!!! If you are buying ANY Intel Boxed Products (Server, or Desktop) this week (12/13-12/16), please get in contact with me as we I do have various promotions running in addition to the ones that you will find attached to the link below. Call me for the details! Let’s finish out the year strong and let me know how I can help.
That's pretty benign in the scheme of RE fraternal issues.
I'm not too comfortable with "energy & gold up / rest a market down a little" rotation play setting up now. It did give us plenty of jagged sideways to down in SEP and OCT in S&P.
RE INTC and oil prices
Last Thursday right after mid quarter update announcement, Intel presented it's 3rd buy some product, get some something free offer this quarter. In a nutshell, they are working very hard to stay at or above that lower end number of the original revenue bracket for guidance that they narrowed last week. If they miss, market reaction would not be pretty.
Oil going up because the entire Northeast is under snow blanket. In my case in NJ, average temperature is about 5 degrees colder or under 30 degrees average temperature vs a average temperature that is comfortably above freezing mark.
I am doing my part to enhance global warming and correspondingly reduce oil prices by running about 2500-3000 watts of Christmas lights powered by coal fired electric plants. I kept blowing the 20 A circuit breaker last year and gone to 2 separate electric circuits.
S&P under a little profit taking pressure.
Good for the heart and arteries.
I drink less then I used to since too much and it makes my tinitus ring louder.
PS ADBE rocking today. WEB bundle upgrade is almost double ASP of print media software bundle they were previously selling.
NEW YORK - No one can accuse Adobe Systems of dragging its feet. Just two days after finalizing its $3.8 billion acquisition of Macromedia, the document creation and management company announced the release of three software bundles combining the best of both company’s offerings.
"This is our first chance to bring [Adobe and Macromedia] products together into a unified package," said Dave Burkett, Adobe senior director of product management.
Available today, Adobe Design Bundle ($1,600) combines Adobe Creative Suite 2 Premium (itself an integrated package including Photoshop, Illustrator, Acrobat and other applications) with Macromedia's (nasdaq: MACR - news - people ) Flash Professional 8. The Adobe Web Bundle ($1,900) packages the Suite software with Macromedia's Studio 8. To be released early next year, the Adobe Video Bundle will join Adobe video software with Flash Professional 8.
JUST DRINKING A LOT
As long as it's just coffee <g>
Just by looking a Dell catalog that came in the mail today, no stupendous buy now discounts being offered.
If INTC largest US customer doing OK, INTC doing OK.
RE mo-mos
CECO got another discontinuous break on accreditation issues.
As long as government continues to print more and more money, large banks guaranteed to make a small percentage on every dollar helping keep track of it for their customers.
So you think Asia's unsatiable appetite for technology going to have INTC et al with better then expected numbers this quarter.
You still feel the same way new highs about NCR now that it is at $34.
Looking at their quarterly numbers only Terdata division growing above economy's 3-4% growth rate. Largest component of earnings last quarter was a tax audit gain.
Does it generate more sales and profit overseas then domestically. I can't see anything about regional sales on quarterly filings.
With $60 B in greenbacks going abroad a month, are they like INTC in repatriating some of that money back to the bottom line.
Also, pension costs would be worrisome.
What is going to lead us to S&P valuations closer to those seen in 1999-2000.
Based upon what has got us here since, it is not going to be SOX NWX and HHI which are still off 67% or more from bubble peaks. CSCO, YHOO and INTC not going to double in price anytime soon.
BKX and Energy sectors are beyond and way beyond their 1999-2000 levels respectively and are likely to preform at least as well as overall averages.
I think BTK index is going to be more dependable out preformer and still has another 100 pts to go to reach 2000 levels. I thinking AMGN is one of it's major proxies and think it will pop out of it's 80-85 range soon.
The realtor said demand for commercial properties was still strong with their New York Diamond District clients.
I guess buying a strip mall on a Jersey highway with suitcases of cash is less speculative then NYC condos.
RE "Bearish" thoughts
What do you think about BBW chart.
I think stock got the momentum to hit new highs. I gotten a bear for my daughter there and I can see some parents and children substituing love and attention with a shopping experience.
RE Interest rates and construction
I was thinking naively that raise in Bank prime rate from 4% to 6.5% that it would cool commercial construction somewhat.
Talking at at least half dozen firms from contractors to realtors this week, commercial construction is still booming because of of what one strip mall realtor said manner of factly that "people are still coming in with suitcases filled with money willing to become commercial real estate owners".
Looking at historical data at St Louis FED site, the bank prime rate goes over 10%, like in 1989, at the end of FED tightening cycle in order to cool an easy money building cycle.
Today's unexpected increase in construction employment tends to make one believe that higher interest rates and inflation increases are in the cards. The only qustion is the pace of the increases
I guess the take home psychology is that it is better to build today at 6.5% prime then at 8.5% prime.
I had very pushy natural gas salesmen from a company which sounded like Amex Energy asking me to lock in NOW! for 5 years at $1.46 vs current $1.72 price from the local gas company.
After his rapid paced pitch, I asked him " Where the hell were you in May when I was looking and the NYMEX spot market price under $9 vs a peak of $14 and current price of $11.40. I told him why would I lock in at above $11 when $11 has rarely been seen anytime in last 5 years.
Then, I more politely asked him if he could send me more details via FAX or email and his respond is they did it only over the phone. I replied that didn't respond to pushy telemarketers and the call quickly ended.
It looks like the current game the pros are playing is to try and sell natural contract on the long side to the fearful retail saps and they basically hold the opposing short side of sale knowing prices are coming down if temperature stays at the balmy 62 degrees right now in NYC area.
email reads
"If you have purchased any Intel boxed products this week (Nov 28-Dec2)"
email was sent with the following time and date:
Tue 11/29/2005 1:26 PM
so anything bought before 1:26 PM today looks like to me to be post dated the discount as of yesterday; anything bought after that is part of week long push to make the numbers in good old USA.
It could just be it took day and a half to get the word out but most reabtes programs are announced several days ahead.
Sales to non Japan Asia is definitely going to bust that old record of 52%.
Just received copy of text of an email from someone who is an inside rep at Intel (please notice the explanation point at end of sentence and granting of discounts on product previously bought).
They working very hard they to meet Dec 8th CC numbers.
If you have purchased any Intel boxed products this week (Nov 28- Dec 2) or are planning on buying any Intel boxed products this week, please give me a call. I am trying to find out what is going on out there in the Channel and see if there is anything I can do to help. Thanks for your purchases and your continued support of Intel!
INTC MQ update is DEC 8th.
With US shipping out $60 B a month in greenbacks, some of those dollars come back indirectly via Intel kit sales to China and India. 52% of sales last quarter.
BTK running out of steam and oil patch heating up again not best case for another move up.
LEXR is a lot like MU, SNDK, RIMM and RMBS having to go to court to force payment or wanting avoid paying royalty income. License and royalty income currently only represents 2% of sales of $189 M in quarterly sales for LEXR but potentially shareholders have a nice special dividend payment if Toshiba has to pay up. So I think stock going to be bumpy like RIMM/NTP proceedings.
(from LEXR web site)
Lexar Media, Inc. v. Toshiba Corporation and Toshiba America Electronic Components, Inc.
After a six week trial in the Superior Court of Santa Clara County, the jury found Toshiba Corporation and Toshiba America Electronic Components, Inc. liable of breach of fiduciary duty and theft of trade secrets and awarded Lexar over $380 million in damages. The San Jose jury also awarded Lexar an additional $84 million in punitive damages.
The total damages awarded to Lexar in the case are $465.4 million.
However, for SNDK
Product revenue was a record $530 million in the third quarter, up 45% year-over-year and 17% sequentially.
Revenue from license and royalties was $60 million, up 40% year-over-year and down 2% sequentially.
I think SNDK and LEXR are pretty much in a cross license situation.
The big question is what type of hoops does SNDK and LEXR have to go through to collecting royalty from new MU venture which is where they will make most of their profits.
At some point, MU could make flash as unprofitable as DRAM and gross profit margins at SNDK (37%) could falter and LEXR will be forced to abandon the retail porduct channel of reselling memory products including flash made by Samsung or others.
I just don't see it happening soon for SNDK but you may already seen LEXR fold up their retail presence under the growing pressure from SNDK at the high end and lowest cost Asian suppliers for Walmart. I haven't checked Walmart shelves this fall since they must have started stocking shelves in OCT to see what their are carrying and what they will sell out before X-mas.
SNDK's meltdown to INTC's announcement yesterday was pretty much overdone. No money thrown at fab production will change next 3-4 quarters of rosy earnings for SNDK.
Market reaction pretty much signals the developing phase of this bull market where M&A and investment deals are necessary to pump the bottom line.
INTC and APPL providing most of the capital for this fab and must see significant benefits of having MU committed to making flash memory at it's underutilized and outdated facilities.
RE SOX
What's the odds that Micron takes Intel's money and doesn't build a fab for flash memory. Micron has taken Intel Capital money before and done what they please like the previous investment in Micron to build RDRAM in late 90's.
I live in NJ about 30 miles out of NYC and we have plenty of black bears and ever increasing number of coyotes.
If your outside at night, the most amazing thing is a coyote will just walk past you like you don't exist. Can't say the same thing if you are a cat. It seems there are a lot of cat missing signs going up in neighborhood.
Stock based compensation slamming them and WFMI AH.
I am feeling WFMI is close to "health food" version of KKD. They got $4 special shareholder dividend, stock buyback and 2/1 split like that will stop people from shorting or selling part of their holdings after 2/1 split.
ADTN did exact same moves before stock got cut in half starting in DEC 03.
RE WMFI
I will never understand their high valuation but stock is now below 4 PM close AH.
Longs rallied market in last 1 hr just about to same magnitude point wise that shorts have tried to do in 5 whole days.
Market looking for any excuse to head higher. BKX up 5 weeks in a row; AIG restates earnings 2nd time and pays no penalty for it.
Hard to state case for less then 1225 based upon the way earnings story has played out.
INTC mid quarter update isn't until market close DEC 8th, which is a long time away.
who cares about the French when we got lesbian cheerleaders here in good old USA.
from
http://customwire.ap.org
Cheerleaders Had Sex in Bar, Witnesses Say
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -- Two Carolina Panthers cheerleaders were charged after their arrest at a bar where witnesses told police the women had sex in a restroom.