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Especially since the stops haven't been run. It's been too easy to push a trailing stop up under the market and just ride the gains.
Selling should be quick and automatic when it starts.
Sent 1/2 Gold fund to cash. Leveraged Ndx short to 80/200.
It appears the French Eu vote could be market moving for the buck and I'm sitting on a 10% profit. Maybe, there will be a dip, if not a 30% position is still heavy.
Dollar Cots. Good for Gold Stocks
Chart taken from an off site board.
Time to lighten up I think. We could drop back next week to 82-83 to form an inverse H&S. Or not LOL. Anyway, the plan has been to lighten here.
Corundum. LOL
That's a log chart. The linear shows a different story.
I've been thinking this could be a distribution rally. If Jan. was the ultimate high for the secular bull that thought will be proven correct. Something fishy about this rally IMO, like it's being pushed un-naturely.
You can't tell it in that time frame but the monthly MACD is crossed down,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6392547
I doubt the final low is in. The dollar is probably going higher still after a test of it's b/o, and gold remains coupled to it. Looking at these resistance areas for now and best case 95-96.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6391018
Still holding it. More to go I think.
This week's data points and market reaction to, will go a long way towards determining whether this is a rally based on hope or the real deal.
Fed Meeting Minutes, GDP May Roil Market
Sunday May 22, 2:59 pm ET
By Michael J. Martinez, AP Business Writer
Release of Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes, Gross Domestic Product Estimate May Roil Market
NEW YORK (AP) -- Optimism returned to Wall Street last week, with solid economic data and falling oil prices giving the stock market its strongest week of 2005.
But it's far too early to be celebrating. The skittishness and worries that plagued investors over the past six weeks are still there -- pushed beneath the surface, but still there regardless. And those worries are only a single piece of bad news away from resurfacing.
Two potentially market-moving takes on the economy are due out in the week ahead. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its May 3 meeting, and investors will look closely to see how the Fed governors feel about inflation and the strength of the economy.
The following day, the Commerce Department releases its estimate for the nation's gross domestic product for the second quarter. The GDP, a measure of all the goods and services produced in the United States, was surprisingly sluggish in April's reading, and the 3.7 percent annualized growth expected this month could be too ambitious.
However, even if the markets drop on both reports, the gains of last week will be tough to erase in a handful of trading sessions. Fueled by positive economic data and sharply falling oil prices, stocks had a big week. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 3.27 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.05, and the Nasdaq composite index was up 3.52 percent.
ECONOMIC DATA
The GDP release will be Thursday, before trading begins. In the first take on second-quarter GDP, issued in April, the nation's economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent, far less than the 3.5 percent Wall Street expected. This time, with strong earnings and falling oil prices, analysts anticipate much stronger growth.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department will report on April's orders for durable goods -- big-ticket items designed to last up to three years. Orders are expected to rise 1 percent after March's unexpectedly large drop of 2.3 percent.
Existing home sales data from the National Association of Realtors comes out Tuesday, with the Commerce Department reporting on new home sales Wednesday. Home sales and new home construction have surged in the past two months -- a sign that the Fed's interest rate policy hasn't caused a drop-off in mortgage lending -- and investors will look to see if the trend continues.
EARNINGS
Halfway through the second quarter, there are few companies reporting earnings in the week ahead. However, the retail sector -- which remains sensitive to consumer spending trends -- will look closely at Costco Wholesale Corp.'s report, due Thursday morning, in hopes of finding strong sales and a bullish outlook for future profits. Costco shares closed Friday at $44.96, up 13.9 percent from their 2005 low of $39.48 on April 22. The company is expected to earn 42 cents per share for the quarter, up from 41 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Also Thursday, luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. reports its results, and is expected to earn $1.79 per share, sharply higher than the 95 cents posted last year. Toll Brothers has been a steady climber over the past year, more than doubling from its 52-week low of $36.92 on May 20, 2004, to close Friday at $84.48. Concern about interest rates, however, has pressured housing stocks recently.
EVENTS
The Fed minutes come out on Tuesday at 2 p.m. EDT. If past releases this year are any indication, expect stocks to fluctuate in the minutes after the release as traders react nearly sentence-by-sentence. It's generally taken about a half hour or so for the markets to settle on a direction after minutes are released.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050522/wall_street_week_ahead.html?.v=2
I've noticed locally that gasoline is down about 10% from it's high while crude is down about 20%. Maybe we're seeing the low in gasoline right now since typically prices rise post Mem. day regardless of crude.
Got Refining Capacity?
The least likely scenario right now is a secondary top right here, right now. Tl's being broken, MA crossovers, shorts busily covering, and everyone else buying hand over fist. That IMO would confound the hell out of this market.
As a whole we can't afford to fuel the world's economy. The only way we've been doing it is through government and personal debt. The longer we wait to get our balance sheets in order, the stronger the medicine required.
I suspect debt is of such a high degree that the only palatable alternative is to inflate it away. If all reduce current consumption enough to begin reducing debt it will be recessionary and IMO long lasting.
Got Gold?
Not to mention...
91% of Ndx stocks above 10dma and Equity Put to call .46
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21345463
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CPCE,uu[h,a]dacayyay[dd][pb10!b20][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,....
I don't know if we get the retrace here or not but it does seem to be a dangerous place to buy.
Yes, excessive. Went from very oversold to very overbought in no time. Volume hasn't been there and I suspect much of the driver short term has been an excessive amount of shorting.
Near parabolic rise with the RSI 5 at it's highest of the year.
It can go to the moon but I won't be buying it with RSI5 above 90 and 91 of the 100 stocks above the 10dma.
I'm more focused now on capturing the give back phase.
What a difference a week makes. 91% of Ndx stocks above 10dma and Equity Put to call .46
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21345463
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CPCE,uu[h,a]dacayyay[dd][pb10!b20][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,...
Gold Stocks Close to Major Long-Term Low
Why “Da Bottom?” In a nutshell, we are still looking at record oversold technical readings for the gold stocks. Further, and of major significance, is the fact that the decline seen last Thursday forced the XAU down to its lower 50-week trading band, which as of last Thursday’s close ended at 80.49 with the XAU closing just below that band with a reading of 80.33. Last Friday, the XAU also closed outside the lower band with a reading of 78.99 versus the lower band at 80.32. This was very important because the XAU will normally not go longer than two to three years without hitting this lower 50-week band. In the most recent instance, it has been over 4 years, since November 2000 when the XAU last hit its 50-week lower band. For many months, this event has been overdue and is now complete and behind the market. What’s more, there are now positive divergences present in the Gold Stocks, with a number of indicators failing to make new and lower lows with the indices late last week . These include the Short Term Ratio of Up-to-Down Volume, the McClellan Oscillator, and 9 day RSI along with (on its inverted scale) and the New TRIN. Does this guarantee that Friday was THE bottom for Gold Stocks? Obviously, in the markets there are never any guarantees. However, I do believe that whether or not, last Friday was the final in the XAU, the odds are high that the gold stocks are close, if not right on, a major long-term low.
'Da' full article by Frank Barbera http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/0519.html
Greenspan: China Revaluation Won't Help
By JEANNINE AVERSA
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON - America's bloated trade deficits probably wouldn't be helped by China revamping its currency system as the Bush administration has been pressing Beijing to do, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday.
Greenspan's comments, during a question-and-answer session following a speech he delivered to the Economic Club of New York, come as the administration over the past week has increased pressure on China to change its currency and trade practices.
The United States' trade deficit ballooned to a record $617 billion last year, including a $162 billion deficit just with China, the highest ever with a single country.
A move by China to revalue its currency "does not follow that that will lower our overall trade balance," Greenspan said. "Indeed, it's probably quite unlikely."
That's because companies are likely to turn to other countries, such as Thailand or Malaysia for goods, rather than U.S. producers. "So essentially what we will find is we're importing from a different area, but we will be importing the same goods," Greenspan said.
For two years, the administration has been prodding China to stop linking its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar, and instead move to a more flexible currency system.
But under pressure from Democratic and Republicans lawmakers in Congress, U.S. manufacturers and others, the administration has hardened its stance over the last week.
It announced new limits on the amount of clothing that China can ship to the United States. It threatened to brand China as a currency manipulator unless it changed its currency policies. And, the government appointed a special envoy to work with China on the these issues.
Greenspan said that at some point China will let the yuan rise against the U.S. dollar because its current system represents an increasing threat, including higher inflation, to the Chinese economy. In pushing for China to make a change, the administration has laid out a similar case.
"China's rigid currency regime has become highly distortionary," Treasury Secretary John Snow said earlier this week. "It poses risks to the health of the Chinese economy" by sowing the seeds for inflation and poses risks to the global economy at large, Snow said.
American manufacturers contend that China's system is hurting U.S. exports and contributing to job losses at U.S. factories. Manufacturers say the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent. The weaker yuan makes Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and American products more expensive in China.
Letting the yuan move higher against the dollar would increase prices American shoppers pay for Chinese goods in the United States, Greenspan said. "The effect will be a rise in domestic price in the United States," he said.
The Chinese, who have bristled at pressure from Washington, say they are making progress on changing their currency system. They say they need more time to shore up their banking system so it can withstand the volatility resulting from a flexible currency.
On Friday, China announced new tariffs on its surging textile exports, a concession aimed at easing a clash with the United States and Europe over a flood of Chinese goods pouring into their markets.
The move didn't appear to change the administration's mind about imposing quotas on the amount of some Chinese clothing shipped to the United States.
Consultations between the United States and China on the U.S. limits "will be undertaken by the end of May," said Commerce Department spokesman Dan Nelson. "The consultations represent an opportunity for discussion with the Chinese government of the measures just announced."
On other issues, Greenspan said he didn't believe the housing market was in danger of a "national bubble" that could pop. Home prices, which have been sharply rising over the last several year, are "going to soon simmer down," he predicted.
That is a gutsy position you have. I certainly hope it works for you.
Well, my style is not trend following and it has it's pitfalls. If I had the guts to be a buy and holder I think those two positions will do very well 18 months out. Since I'm short term, I'm always tweaking but with an eye on taking positions that I think will do well farther out.
-1.5% on the year... so after 10 years of trading I still don't know chit.
Not sure my TL's are accurate enough, but it looks like a weekly close above the broken tl. In a symetrical triangle now. http://www.chartpatterns.com/symmetricaltriangles.htm
Are you someone's alter ego?
Alias Born On: Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Two day old alias's are often someone with more than one Screen name. Sorry, but I see it over and over. LOL
My first position was from 80.33 and that's the one I took off today. I still think the chances of an IT rally are good but I also needed to diversify some and the ndx is looking piggish here <ggg>.
FWIW it also looks a bit parabolic. Kinda like the oil chart was on it's way to 59. This short won't be too scary though because it's unleveraged.
Ending the day 60% gold and 40% Ndx short.
Chlorine was applied. Nice to see you.
The monthly MACD crossed up Feb. 03 and has stayed crossed up... untill now.
Ditto Dow
That inverse H&S occurred to me too. Pullback at 87 and higher low.
It also occured to me that this is just another oversold bounce with lower lows ahead. <ng>
I have 86-87 and then 91-92 as big resistance, but who knows.
Well I won't be buying Ndx unless I can get a significant pullback. 1460? I think today had alot of short covering and now it's overbought.
As we talked about before, I use the 10/34 ma crossover for bias so I'm now bullish. The concern is that it's another period of whipsawing like summer 04.
My bias indicator has turned bullish too. The 10/34 ma has crossed up. Will likely get long Ndx when cash becomes available from gold trade and on a pullback.
Only thing is I don't see the fundamentals supporting a bullish move but I will trust the charts for now.
Bear fund has now broken down out of it's up channel which means bull fund has broken out.
10/34 crossover
Now they can take it down. I got stopped at 1480. I really didn't think they could pierce the Jan. low before sellers overwhelmed buyers. Humbled me. LOL
The 15 minute chart has possibilities. Macd is crossed up.
Crossed up on the hourly too
Some sort of Doji candle, needs a white stick tomorrow for confirmation. Note the Feb. 8 candlestick.
How's life Dude? The business keeping you busy? It's not the same around here w/o your 40 posts per day. <ggg>
Xau. Nice move off the bottom. Could be the tide has turned for now. Bet there's a chit load of shorts on the gold stocks.
Ndx exceeded my stop at the Jan lows of 1480. Moving that allocation to gold. No way to tell where this particular bottom lies but I think the short/intermediate upside from here is 15-25%.
Gold stocks are likely to anticipate the end of the rate cycle and bottom early. It's a complicated picture but if one believes the dollar is going to resume it's decline buying a little here and a little there may work 6-12 mos. out.
Greenspan is probably setting up his successor to cut rates early next year. By that time it should be apparent the consumer is hurting.
It's all supply and demand. Sooner or later the current extreme in demand will be satiated.
The housing market is like all others. There ARE tops and bottoms.