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If this keeps up, they'll need a category all of their own - now up to at least a dozen "bible" appies at the App Store.
We've just completed a multi-decade cycle in interest rates. It's a given rates/inflation/money supply WILL NOT stay where it is. The only question is which way they go - back to InflatoLand or has the Debtfibrillator finally run out of battery charge and we go into a deflationary spiral?
I have no idea which. All I know is *nothing* ever stays static, so a secular trend towards one or the other is inevitable, and has probably already started.
...I don't see this election cycle as likely to be different from any other...
That would be the high percentage bet.
Oil continuing to plunge here could really help things along.
A reasonable argument. I guess the flip side is that if oil demand is falling, it indicates recessionary tendencies in all the wrong places.
But either way, at some point you have to look at a market down 20% plus from its most recent top and make a leap of faith to the long side...IMO.
Seems like a perfectly reasonable range to me. Although I did just order an 8-core beastie, so that oughta help the P/E.
Yeah, I don't have any beef with the conclusion he came to - this stock looks extremely range bound to me and there doesn't appear to be anything blindingly new in the pipeline.
...heck of a nice call on oil. How did you construct your play there?
I'm mucking about with XOM and CVX. Looooong way to go (I hope!) but a promising beginning. This is 6-18 month play for me.
80% cash as usual.
Every investment book that I have ever read tells investors over and over again not to invest based on emotions but rather on pure valuation.
It doesn't appear he's read too many books! :)
That thing is getting panned all over the place.
Ah man...anybody have any reasonable explanation for why the eBay iphone app is ONLY AVAILABLE TO USA RESIDENTS?!
OT ...I think you'll agree is ludicrous...
No question about it.
Governments are no different than traders - profligate spending and high levels of leverage always exact their price in the end. Always. IndyMac is/was just a symptom of a much deeper problem. That the same people yelling at Schumer don't bat an eye at what has been happening at the federal level is...off topic ;)
All IMO, etc.
It passed the Senate on a straight party-line vote...
That was the initial vote. The final senate vote enacting it into law had only 8 "nay" votes. Schumer was NOT one of them.
Curiously Feingold and Boxer - Senators from eventual ground zero of the mortgage debacle - were.
OT: Schumer (and McCain)
I looked it up - it's true - Schumer was co-sponsor of the Garn-St Germain legislation of '82. One of the goals of that bit of deregulation was "ensuring the availability of home mortgage loans". One tool used to do that was establishment of ARMs. So yeah - absolutely - as a long-serving congressman with such close ties to ground zero of "new era" home financing he bears a significant measure of culpability.
It's not partisan - McCain has his own dubious history from the S&L days, which I'm sure will get (re) aired out after the conventions.
BTW, I *never* blamed Schumer for the IndyMac bailout. IndyMac was insolvent for some time, it's collapse was inevitable.
So what's left in the cupboard to get this stock moving again?
OT:
Wasn't Schumer one of the co-sponsors of the original "let's deregulate thrifts!" legislation back in the early 80s?
OT: FNM/FRE. Was thinking about it Friday, but spent most of the day on the road and never pulled the trigger.
What they're talking about is opening the door to de facto nationalization. With Schumer's recent comments, I think it's pretty clear the congressional Dems are going to do everything they can to boil this pot of water pre-election, even if it means the final bill ends up being higher.
Yuck, yuck, yuck.
OT:
I'm a little confused: did Paulson just announce that the US Government was going to become a shareholder in Fannie and Freddie...?
Geez - there are already six "bible" apps in the store. Not making a judgement - just thinking out loud that the market for this toy may not exactly fit all the molds one might suspect.
To hell with SMS - where's my damn Skype?
Real world test - while under the 3G umbrella the GPS/map thingy updates fast enough to keep up with a car moving at 110+ mph.
Don't ask...
The App Store is visible from Canada. Most expensive app I see so far is something called "My Life Record" for 49.99
Massive Internet Security Flaw Uncovered...Anyone have any further info on this?
It's the Cylons - Caprica's been sleeping with Linus.
'10 Leap straddle is selling for $80...that's not bad. Turning it into a butterfly with $80 wings costs ~$23. That's not bad either.
If by some miracle AAPL could get itself added to the Dow30, a kind of dispersion could be done where you short AAPL and go long the rest of the Dow. Basically a bear bet on AAPL market cap relative to Dow market cap.
Can't do that with SPX or NDX, but nothing stopping anyone from making a shadow index and doing the math...
The "fair value" numbers automatically price in relative volatility.
So there's hope my kids aren't completely abnormal? :)
Thanks for the link, will check it out for sure.
Market-wise for next week, looking at picking up long-term bearish positions for XOM and CVX (reasons should be obvious, even for those who might not agree). Looking for mid-term bearish position on DLB (40% of revs tied to patents expiring in <18 months and upcoming massive turnover in senior management (ie, they gonna milk the cow dry before the door hits their asses on the way out)).
No AAPL position - it's too near midpoint of the range I'm expecting. Patience...
Almost forgot - markets are by virtually all definitions now in secular bear mode - being the ornery person I am, figure this is a good time to start building long-long term bullish position on US equity indexes.
Seems like a reasonable hypothesis. It's still just so bizarre to think of Apple as being bigger than 3/4 of the Dow.
Now I have to deal with our three year old requesting a They Might Be Giants (!!!) podcast...
Shaping up to be a big week for AAPL, hopefully.
Apple's market cap is bigger than Boeing, Alcoa, Dupont and GM - combined. I stick by my assertion from last year that this stock is in a long-term trading range - call it $130-$200.
The first big move outside that range I would expect to be to the downside, when the inevitable earnings miss finally hits. No idea when that might be.
Googling "pixar render farm" for images turns up all sorts of photos. The rack-mounted blades being run are unlikely to be running OSX as it isn't Apple hardware and I wouldn't expect Jobs of all people to break his own licensing terms. ;)
Judging by the most recent photos, Pixar is using Verari hardware.
OSX and WiMax - any known problems? I'm deep in Beers & Deers country - the lodge PC has no real problem accessing 'net content with either Safari or Firefox - but neither 10.4 MacBook (Safari & Firefox) nor 'Touch (Safari) are working right across point-to-point WiMax hookup.
Oh, and Apple damn well better provide the ability to adblock on the 'Touch - a lot of sites are close to unusable otherwise.
Well I'm in the program and just got my invite to submit to the App store - so there's no question they're catering to more than heavy hitters. I wonder if Apple is re-learning all the reasons it stuck with a "no preannouncements!" strategy...
WTF - Rogers broke Jobs back? I thought unlimited data plan was an Apple-enforced requirement for being allowed to carry iPhones.
Managing >4000 developer's apps all at once must be a nightmare.
For sure. It'll come as a shock to many here, but I know I can be an annoying p****, and there are potentially 3999 more mees out there. :)
So maybe the right answer is...don't attempt the impossible?
...is the current lack of A2DP functionality hardware limited....
It's in Leopard, I would be surprised if it's a hardware limitation but don't know for sure.
PS I hate dongles. :)
Blackberry allows for full internet browsing.
OT: Ok, so my personal past comes with emotional baggage around the Walls For Borders issue, I freely admit that. Texas, West Bank, doesn't matter, it all leaves a very bad taste in my mouth. So even though I know it's not a black-and-white world, it would still be nice to find someone at least trying to stake out the moral high ground.
:(
IMO it should very disconcerting that the Dem-controlled Congress has - so far as I can tell - done basically sweet f***-all about bringing some common sense to the discussion.
there were at least a couple of jailbreak apps providing some measure of MMS support. i do wonder, though, if MMS isn't a relic of a past when email-everywhere wasn't available.
personally i'm a little more annoyed about the a2dp issue.
so, whadaya think?
RIMM makes a hell of a nice and useful device. There are some clear holes with the iPhone - WRT to both usability and development - hopefully those get dealt with in 2.x or 3.0.
Competition is good for all of us.
my partner has deferred purchase of a dedicated GPS to see if the iPhone will be good enough.
I think the bigger news is that I'm in Canada - it would appear the registration is now open to non-US-based entities.
OT: ...assumed it was a ``courtesy' that had nothing to do with his position in government...
Oh come on. Nobody - NOBODY - can possibly be that stupid.
Apple's letting the riff-raff in - got my "Welcome to the iPhone secret handshake club" notice this morning.
Time to start coding in earnest.
...at some point the cost of shipping will outweigh the cost of labor.
"some point" is now, depending on the goods. New manufacturing capability is already starting to (re)percolate in north america. it just takes time as these have significantly longer ramp times than, say, starting a software company.
plus significant expertise has been lost over the past three decades, it will take a bit of time to relearn some of what's been lost.
...there is no cost effective way to get it out...
The amount that can effectively be gotten out is a direct function of crude prices. If - and it's a giant if - oil can stay at $150/barrel our children will be looking back at today's supply fears with bemused smiles.
Besides, capitalism as a principle requires we constantly walk a tightrope of "barely enough" supply. Anything else would be short-term inefficiency that'll be squeezed out of the market by competitive forces.
Abiotic oil is real. Stronger than that - abiotic oil is the nail in the coffin on (evangelical) creationism, ID, and other such nonsense. Put another way - if abiotic oil isn't real, there is no evolution, because the processes are identical.