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Major companies like that start to sweat when they suffer a profit downturn and only end up with say $32M - profit!
Warners have a loss of $32M! And have suspended dividend payments - that won't help the share price. I'd call that a meltdown, if not over the tipping point.
The downloads need to start. I think the pps spike up to (0.09?)early in the year and then the steep fall with tens of millions of shares turnover, plus the midem "launch" has created a lot of caution among investors, which might need more than announcements to overcome. Bring on the downloads asap.
Maybe the ad-supported model will be the one that iTunes, Imeem, Spiralfrog, LastFM and all the others must follow now.
I can't see them just picking up their bat and going home.
Thanks for all of your posts, GoQ, and others. The news release is absolutely fantastic.
Man, you should get some sleep - we want you to be eagle-eyed tomorrow. Up and early at em.
Cheers
Not expecting any.
The can, yes. There are other products as well.
Even if the pps gets to "Godfather" proportions, I still won't be selling all my shares, at this stage, BLLN has an even bigger future beyond Qtrax, in my opinion.
Appreciate what you are saying AVDI. Fully know that it is not a pump job. My understanding of the situation goes way back, and doesn't depend on what is posted here, although the forum is very helpful. My main input is about timeframes, and how to "interpret" them. I have been very interested to see how some of the predictions made here have been panning out, and detect a little disappointment on the part of some of the helpful posters, so it is just my two cents worth. It can be a bit unnerving to hear two weeks, three weeks, etc, and then nothing. On the other hand, delays with any enterprise always cost money, as we don't don't we, so at this juncture I'm sure everyone will be very relieved when the show is actually on the road and downloads are happening and revenue flows begin. I would be enjoying the ride a whole lot less if things weren't going as well as they are - and in the absence of the helpful posts here, I might say. I'm in for the long haul, AV, and have been for a lot longer than you might imagine.
Love the Godfather analogy by the way - can't wait for the pps to be an offer I can't refuse!
Thank you for your thoughts, AV.
Thanks, lopaka. And as we know dotting i's and crossing t's doesn't take weeks either, it takes more like many months. They've been dotting and crossing since last Christmas by the sound of it.
Over-optimising and under-estimating seem to be the common human condition in any commercial undertaking, and necessarily so. If you are trying to get a building contract for example and trying to raise finance for it, you aren't going to say the project will take two years will you. You will say to your eager financier that it is going to take six months and come in at $y. Then you get the gig, only after which everyone finds out that it has taken two years and come in over budget at $y X double, or three or four times.
I really get nervous when I hear about dotting i's and crossing t's. They sound like icebergs to me, and I'm the captain of the Titanic!
I'm hangin', GoQ, and it's real tough, as we all know.
Thanks for your posts btw, they do really help to corroborate one's own impression(s).
It does worry me that (some people)at the labels might see the best thing about this whole exercise are the license fees - that's a whole bunch of CDs you don't have to sell isn't it.Did they really learn from the Napster example, now years after. It has gone beyond that I know, especially as 2007 has been seen as the year where the bottom really fell out of CD sales. It isn't going to get any better in 2008, although there might be some decision-makers at the labels who think that there will be a miraculous turnaround.
I agree that it is all happening, but the timeframe seems to me to be a lot longer, even now, than what it seems. By that I mean some months (in real, not symbolic terms), rather than weeks. If there are a number of pr firms involved, they will want to earn their bucks won't they, rather than push something out in "two weeks". I hope there is plenty of time left in the license periods.
Thanks, but it comes from years of experience and many disappointments. That doesn't feel too cool. But thanks.
Thanks, GoQ. Agree.
The issue seems to be the language around timing of announcements. Looking at this, "soon" doesn't necessarily mean the same as the next person might define it - predictably. "Two weeks" doesn't necessarily mean "two weeks", it probably means more like "soon". My formula for time estimates - in this matter anyway - is to multiply by a factor of at least 5 or 6 i.e. "two weeks" means 2 weeks x 5 or 6, more like three months. "Three months" could be shorthand for more like a year! "A year" means more like...! Well, how long has it been now? "Sources" seem to make their own estimations of time frames on the basis of how long a process they are seeing "should" take - in their own estimations i.e. "oh, this only needs to be signed and dated, that should only take five minutes, and add some time for postage and short telephone calls, and it "should" be fine in "two weeks". Doesn't happen. Not trying to be negative, just trying to find out what the real meaning is behind the language being given to posters. It is much more symbolic than by the calendar, imo.
That would be small fish compared to license fees. But on the other hand license fees are small fish compared to the potential of this. Let's also hope that everyone keeps that vision in mind.
Let's hope the license agreements aren't dated to start from the expiration of the last ones, which were various dates through 2007 if I recall recorrectly; because if they are and the agreements are only for a year, then some of them could start expiring again from around July, August through to end of year, giving only a few months from now to get everything locked down and started. Then let's hope the downloads start before any of the license periods expire, otherwise would we then see another situation like last January, "oh, sorry, no agreements". But anyway, if everything is in the hands of the labels now they should have every interest in having the agreements signed and downloads in place well before any expiration dates. Shouldn't they? Otherwise more license fees will have to be paid.
Tell me that it is all good and fine and dandy.
What does that tell you?
To say nothing of the license fees.
Do we know how long the current license agreements are in place for, and from when? Advertising and downloads will need to be in place well before the expiration of the license periods I imagine. Those would have be renewed which is an expensive exercise, as the labels know, and could be even more expensive next time round.
Thank you for the post GoQ.
Try again. I don't think there is any problem with the telephone.
LOL. You ate something bad. Take something for it.
There is no pr going out, nothing in the press, and the markets are not in a good way at all. Even so, the pps isn't plummeting, it seems to be in the same holding pattern for weeks now. On the upside of a downside market, when news does hit, there will be a lot of people, in my opinion, who will want to be on one of the few stocks that has a good outlook, so there shouldn't be too much 'competition' to blln for investor buy-in.
I'm hoping to hear when the downloads will be enabled.
If I had a choice of buying a resealable can or not, I think I'd buy the resealable. Problem with cans is that you have to drink the contents all right now, hard to transport if you don't. Star Can would result in a huge surge in sales of cans of beverage rather than bottles, in my opinion. I would have thought going with Star Can before Qtrax would have been the easier option. I assume that AK has gone with the better option financially.
Check the sums on Star Can. How many beverage cans are sold around the world every day estimated? At a license fee equivalent to 0.001 per can that is very good return. At 0.01, it is a massive return.
Big question is when the downloads become available, I guess.
All the prep work is very important, but the market is waiting for the flick of the switch on downloads. Do we know if they are in a position to do that now, or does that need a lot of technical prep work and is months away?
Same here av. I found this forum purely by chance doing a google search on news on qtrax. I think there must have been a lot of posts on this board at the time so it came up high on the search results list. Not at present though.
Otherwise, I'd just have to settle for yahoo finance.
Brilliant! Thanks av
I’m sticking with my hunch of news next week
Post 4227, March 20
“…It sounds to me from the posts that agreements are ready to go, but there is a last stage now about raising more funds. If that is the case, and funds are forthcoming, then I get the feeling that the 'major' announcements are within weeks. The easter break is going to create a bit of a slowdown either side of it, I would think, so my hunch is the week after next we see some news. All just a hunch, from the posts, and imo.”
Much appreciated, Go-Q
It would be happening at the same time as license negotiations. You would have to make sure you have enough advertising revenue to cover download licensing costs wouldn't you. If it was me, I would enable all downloads at the same time. Advertisers would also like to know how much traffic is going through the site before they commit more funds. Wouldn't you?
All downloads have to be paid for through advertising. Advertising agreements are also part of this equation.
My impression is that AK is always very very focused on the main task, and what is happening in the market is not very much on his radar. I am comfortable with that (as comfortable as I can be in this situation, that is). I think it must be an incredible juggling act trying to get ends tied up within a timeframe, with all these publishers, labels and legal teams involved. It's a nightmare. If the delay since 'launch' is just about the legals/agreement wordings, it seems a long time. Other posts have talked about the need for more upfront license fees, which seems very likely. It sounds to me from the posts that agreements are ready to go, but there is a last stage now about raising more funds. If that is the case, and funds are forthcoming, then I get the feeling that the 'major' announcements are within weeks. The easter break is going to create a bit of a slowdown either side of it, I would think, so my hunch is the week after next we see some news. All just a hunch, from the posts, and imo.
good news for Qtrax.
Trouble is, the tax proposal is not just a "first to the market" situation, it depends on government action with all the hold-ups and red tape to go along with it - as you say in how many different countries and how many different ISPs. How often do you see governments getting something like that co-ordinated in a short time. The labels will go under waiting for something like that, they know that. It is a ten year project. they haven't got ten years. Just people saying "put a tax on it" takes about two seconds, putting it into practice takes too long. (I will be offline for some hours now. GLTA.)
I understand, ddbann, but you might be waiting a very long time for the tax to come in - if it ever comes in. I wouldn't hold my breath.
What sort of precedent does that create for other industries? Any government bringing that in, would be in for a lot of trouble. They would surely get lawsuit appeals on constitutional bases to the highest courts in the land.
It's about as easy as governments pegging the price of oil.
Sounds easy, it isn't.
Well, I think ddbann is making the point you wouldn't have to see ads. My point is, a tax on ISPs might sound good, but I can't imagine ISPs lining up to say "oh great, a tax, thanks very much, when can we pay you?" So - who is going to make them pay? Government? You would think so. How long is that going to take to get through, is it going to be worldwide? How many governments is that required to pass a new tax? Some governments don't like taxing business - they might lose an election. The labels could take the ISPs to court and try to make them pay a tax - does a court have the ability to impose a tax? Don't think so. So it would probably only come about as a ground of settlement of a lawsuit taken by the labels - do you think the ISPs would accept that? How long are all the lawsuits going to take? Would the ISPs appeal against any sanctions - most likely, how long would that take. Would anyone be seeking adjournments. Yes. It's a nightmare scenario.
When we hear about "simple" magic-bullet solutions to big issues, I think, "beware of the devil in the detail". They are often easier said than done. This sort of tax could take five years, ten years to get through the system after talking about it for two to three years. In the meantime, what happens to revenue. Besides, big business would be more attracted to an advertising model, than a tax model. Just my two cents - maybe that's more like five cents!
Yes; but who is going to make them do it?
Why will ISPs adopt a $5 per person per month tax?
So do I, GoQ, but it seemed to be delays right through from 2006 to the launch which caused the problem. Not in Qtrax's control entirely, I realise, but the licenses cost big time I guess. Won't say any more. Let's hope it's real soon, after all it's not far off two months since the launch.