Looking for my next Forex trade
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Thanks, Misfit...we're a technical trading board so all input on technical analysis is very welcome.
AU 4 Hour Chart Update
The new high can only mean that we already had 5 waves down on the 4 hour chart. The good news is that this sharp move up is eating up all of the minor waves in a Wave 2 push back to the topside.
When this wraps up, a big Wave 3 down is coming to crank things up to the downside.
This count matches the daily chart quite well. I've listed it here, too with the current count on the minor waves.
Now, what they need to do is hold AU here near the highs until the day rolls over in a bit less than 3 hours. That will give the daily TDI the push it needs to qualify as a Wave 2 move back up to form a top.
After that, they have my permission to collapse.
Patience, Qui. This is an exhaustion Minor Wave 2 retrace on the daily chart.
Remember, Waves 2 and 4 mark tops. Wave 5 up on the daily is already done and the minor Wave 1 down was created during the last sell off.
The largest pullbacks occur right before the final top is put in place.
Grass is green...sun is warm.
Ohhmmmm.....Ohhhmmmm...
Just keep chanting that and you'll be fine...LOL! Just see it for what it is...the potential instead of the current state.
It's a big, fat 3 wave ABC move and that's it...nothing more, nothing less...it's a bear market rally and on the large scale charts, it's just a blip.
Yep, it does.
Patience is key here...just let it run it's course.
I'm dropping my AU TP back all the way to 0.69. This is the final movement up regardless of where it tops out...it will tank hard.
This move probably won't have much in it. This will actually service to move that daily TDI back up a bit to form the negative divergence we need for a bigger drop. I was expecting low 0.76's anyway so...here we are.
Pullback to at least 0.73 is still in the cards but if we make it all the way to 0.7728, we'll drop back to at least 0.70.
0.7628 or 0.7728? If they're gonna do it, I'd prefer 0.7728.
Awww shucks, it's good for you Heavy. It'll tighten up your sphincter...LOL!
Personally, I would rather just have them go ahead and take AU up to 0.7728 this week and be done with it. I can make a lot more money if they go ahead and do it now...LOL! Won't bother me a bit.
Yep, I've heard it referred to as that before.
AU news spike it again...essentially a double top. But I have seen Wave 4 actually make a new high so nothing would surprise me at this point.
Don't look at the DOW Jones chart, Qui. It's the wrong one to gauge sentiment.
The DOW is only 30 stocks so it's not a good sampling of the market as a whole.
Watch the S&P weekly...it's 500 stocks and is a much better representation of what's going on.
Here's the S&P weekly...it's formed a spinning top right at the SMA50, which is the first real test since it broke completely below it.
As soon as my last ACAD short TP triggers, I'm deleting that chart and never trading it again. That sucker moves slower than an old crusty turd floating in a river of molasses moving uphill in the middle of winter.
AU Monthly Chart
Ok Heavy, now that you've seen how the validated TDI IHS and H&S patterns work, let's take a look at that monthly chart again.
We have each of the components of the TDI IHS pattern in place and now a breakout of the neckline. We have 3 lower lows in price at each of the component peaks.
But, we haven't gotten a retest of the neckline yet. That retest is going to drive price back down hard and either form one more new low or a double bottom at the extreme low.
That key candle level of 0.7728 is still a possibility though after this next drop occurs.
Headed out for a while, gang...might even catch a nap. Everything is in place so time to just let the charts do their thing.
My TP on that USD/DKK long is 7.3...and yes, that's over 3500 pips up from here.
Yep, I'm waiting on EA as well, Qui. I want to see a wave termination point on the daily confirmed on the way back up before I add again.
Yep, that's right...all in one movement.
Long USD/DKK at 6.6645. Probably early.
The wave counts quite often predict what the reaction will be from the news...I've seen it many times.
Probably a bottom on UCAD in this area, stargate. As expected, they tanked UJ, UCAD, and USD/DKK. Reversals are setting up on those pairs before much longer I suspect. The news release did exactly what the charts said they would.
I'm looking at the bigger picture. The small fluctuations here don't bother me.
157.8 pips profit on the UJ shorts...like taking candy from a baby...LOL!
Oh I am...I just added one.
Added AU short at 0.7513. TP on all orders still set for 0.73.
112.90 TP achieved and triggered. How'd ya like them apples, Heavy? LOL!
I'm waiting to short AU so EU may have some more topside yet stargate...all in good time.
Locked and loaded and ready to make some money, Stargate.
Ok gang, get your popcorn and take your seats...the Big Show is about to begin.
A slightly higher high can still take place...no biggie though. The pattern says UJ is dead regardless.
The double top formation we just got on UJ also counts. So it may not go any higher. Double tops aren't as common on the neckline retest but they're perfectly valid for this Wave 4 termination pattern. So they're likely to just sell immediately on the news release.
It won't be the rates...it'll be the language they use in the minutes and later in the press conference that carries the weight.
Here's a valid TDI head and shoulders pattern by the way. Each peak has been met with 3 slight new highs. The neckline has broken slightly and now price is moving up one more time to make a 4th slight new high. Then it should tank.
Here's my prediction for the FOMC news release...
It'll be bad news for the US dollar initially, so pairs like UJ, UCAD, and USD/DKK will react negatively and drop. That will allow the pairs like AU and EU and GU to move back up a bit.
Sometime after that is when we start looking for shorts again on pairs like AU and EU.
There it is in a nutshell...LOL!
I don't see it breaking above 114.10 on any pop. It would be a minor thing...maybe to the 88.6 fib retrace of the last move down.
Then again, this is the market...you never know for sure...LOL!
I used to use USD/DKK basically as a signal for what to do on EU. That works well, too if EU is a preferred pair.
But it's also a good guide for what the dollar index is doing overall.
I always expect Wave 4 to carry us back to between the 61.8 and the 78.6 fib retrace of the Wave 3 move. So I'll be watching for that area to get hit.
If AU has bottomed already, that move would take us back to between 0.7525 and .7555.