is retired now but still kicking like a horse!
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi macoprogrammer,
Trading with $ 1 and 50:1 leverage I think you mean. Right? That is not margin trading. Trading on margin occurs when an Agent lends the dough and with that stocks are bought. If the stock dives you still need to pay back the loan. The Agent will sell the stock and you are responsible for the difference. I would advise very strongly against margin trading. . .it is very dangerous. . if stocks suddenly drop in value you end up with a huge debt!
With the Forex Agents I know it works as follows(for those who doe not yet know. You deposit say $ 1000 and set the leverage on 100. Then you buy, via he Agent of course, say $ 20.000 worth of currency (or even close to $100.000 if you will). When the currency value rises by1% you have earned $ 200. . if the price drops 1% the you lost $ 200. As long as the loss in value remains below the $ 1000 Deposit you are safe and the account will not be liquidated. . . .I call this equity credit trading (ECT) and it works with any stock although not usually with a leverage of 100! ECT is also the basis of my TurboVest Vortex AIM Method.
If the value keeps rising you can have the profit locked-in at various percentages or you can have it paid out to you bank account. With the locking-in of the profit you simply increase the Security Deposit and that raises the effective amount of currency you would trade with: with extra $ 200 profit you can in principle work with $ 120.000 currency value.
If the loses get to be $ 1000 the Agent will have the right to liquidate you account so that the Agent does not lose a penny. . .depending on you track record with the Agent and your established creditworthiness he may decide to let you go into the red a bit or a lot. . .this gets you into margin trading. . . but most Agents in Forex Trading. . .like banks. . .will demand extra security to be deposited if you go into the red (or even before).
Likely there are also Agents that will let you trade on margin as a rule but I would stay away from that. . .do not invest money you can not afford to loose. . . only use equity credit so that you portfolio is always positive. . .this is equally valid advise for any trading one does.
One of the gents I know is IBX(if my memory serves me correctly.
If one uses an Agent like that the Vortex FOREX Spread is not a requirement by any means. . it is just an AID to calculate the currency trade sizes the AIMWAY. . .when the Security Deposit get to 0 the Buy Advice goes to Zero. . .unless you have the TurboVest Version J. The buys and sells can obviously be executed without it, just like one doesn’t need any AIM or any other program to trade stocks or currency.
For the FOREX Version of the Vortex program the purchasing information is listed on the Vortex Order Form on my website
http://www.vortexcw.nl/vortex/index.html
Recently some extra interest has developed in this FOREX Excel Spread sheet. In comparison the price for the FOREX spreadsheet may appear out of proportion relative to the prices for the other Excel spreads, but in fact it is not so.
The Excel spreadsheets for the Regular Vortex Method are meant as supporting documents or Demo spreads for the Windows Vortex program. The Excel spreads allow for "playing" with the system to get acquainted with parameter optimization that would be used in the Windows program.. . they are not really intended for primary trading as they are not expandable to a large time range, unless requested. That expansion would cost extra. All the low priced spreads are blocked versions that only allow entering data for "playing" with the system or testing a price history. . .one can not change the structure of the program or the functions in the cells.
The FOREX Version has been created on demand for some customers specifically for parallel use with a FOREX on-line Trading System, administered by an Agent. With the Vortex Excel spread one would actually calculate the trade size for the online system. . it is meant for someone that already is familiar with the basis FOREX Trading. The spreadsheet can also be used stand alone if the investor trades currencies himself without an online-Agent. . .then trading currencies would work in the same way as trading with shares except that one can use the Leverage Factor if desired.
The Vortex FOREX program can of course also be used for "playing" with it or getting the "hang" of the Vortex FOREX Method but for that you do not really need the FOREX Version, in which I have integrated the variable Leverage Factor. . say 100 or even 1000. . which implies that within a Security Deposit boundaries one can buy a $ 100 currency value (for a leverage of 100) for every of $1 security deposit on the account. This means that if the currency drops 1% in value the $ 1 security deposit is used up and one needs to provide another $ 1 security for the next 1% drop in value for the $ 100 portfolio value.
Of course, it goes without saying that a typical currency trade will be much, much smaller than the value of the Security Deposit (fractions of percentages can trigger trades) but with a +/- behavior of the currency one can develop a rising value of the security on the account(if it is not taken out as profit).
Within limits and depending on the customer’s specifications I can modify the Vortex FOREX to suit. For large changes in the program extra charges apply.
In any case the Vortex FOREX program will be sized to the specifications of the buyer. . . for example for a 100 rows to a 1000 rows. The FOREX Version is protected by Copyright. Reselling to other people is forbidden unless a contract for this is entered into.
Clive, I say Amen^2 to your closing remarks:
AIM’s style in effect opens up further opportunities that are not open to buy and holders. If you believe a stock has good longer term price appreciation potential and some price volatility capture potential along the way then a Classic AIM with relatively high stock allocation is potentially the better choice. If you think a stocks price will more sideways range in a volatile manner then a LD-AIM style is potentially the better choice. Indeed even a stock whose price declines but bounces around a lot can even be made profitable overall with AIM. Buy and holders in contrast are limited purely to price appreciation capture alone.
All the forgoing went over my head, I must admit!
In my superficial review of LDAIM I concluded that it is essentially a means to create Multiplying Factors for the Buys & Sells, relative to the regular AIM, but using the same parameter settings. . .maybe there is more to it but I do not know that yet.
Similar as you identify an effective role for LDAIM in a sideways trading run one can arbitral us Multiplying Factors for regular AIM as well. . .as I do in Vortex AIM, which is extremely effective for volatility capture in a sideways trading run, as one is “supposed” to use rather aggressive parameters. . .Vortex AIM is meant for aggressive traders*. As with LDAIM, Vortex rapidly runs out of cash on the decline or rapidly dumps shares on the rise IF one does not superimpose trade delaying mechanisms over the main trading machine. This is as much as you have concluded. . .I think. . .on the basis your analysis of the AIM Machine (and its derivatives).
* The 5 standard variable Vortex parameters are created for optimizing the trading. . .tuning the system by turning the “wheels” like you do for example with a PID process controller (in case one does not have an automatic parameter optimizer). Basic skills for this are required, of course.
TooFuzzy, good to chew the fat for a bit again!
What is trading optimally?
Fair enough question! For this I would mean that if the settings for the trading at the initial portfolio set-up are retained during a rising stock price run, or a dropping stock price run, as you approach zero stock or zero cash, would you still generally be content about leaving these LDAIM settings as you selected them in the first place? If the answer is YES then it would mean that for you the trading is as good as you expect it to be. If the answer is NO then it would mean that you would want to change the settings to some more appropriate values as you reach the boundaries of the trading activity.
Without knowing how a stock will develop would mean generally that the trading parameters are almost never optimal from a technical consideration, so we have to accept less than technical optimum trading and as long as you see no reason to change the parameters as the LDAIM portfolio value grows or declines then I would call that optimal trading.
Other than that there is no way of knowing if the initial settings are OK, except if one can identify that the settings are similar/identical to the settings for a previously optimized system (a test case) that has approximately the same price history as the stock you are currently investing in. This is no different for Vortex AIM but with this system the investor is predisposed to be willing to “fiddle” with the parameters as the stock price behavior changes.
So, apart from the possibility that one has with an automatic parameter optimization module, such as AI claims to have (or used to have), or if one has become proficient to choose parameters as a “function” of the stock price behavior. . including the “feel” for ignoring trade advice (delaying Buys/Sells on declining/rising prices), my curiosity goes out the general performance of the LDAIM in comparison to the Lichello AIM. . .(if anybody still uses the Lichello AIM). The reason I am asking is (off course) that I have no desire to spend a lot of time becoming proficient in Trading with other AIM derivatives but that I am nevertheless curious bout them. . .getting the feedback from LDAIM-users is similar to reading an analysis of a book without reading the book J.
. . .I was modifying the previous post but ran out of time!
I have modified an Excel VORTEX AIM spreadsheet. . . Cash Limiter version. . . upon request from a VORTEX-AIM Customer that was already into Forex trading via an online Agent. This customer wanted more and thought my VORTEX-AIM would be a good system for it
I have sold some of these developments in Holland and recently one in Canada. There was a lot of work involved but in principle the trading is no different than for any stock. . .al you need is periodic +/- price changes. My program has a free to choose leverage factor build in.
I can sell you a spreadsheet as well.
Contact me on the link below and I will get you the details for the deal.
Regards
AIM and FOREX
See first this link:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=23429814
I have an Excel program for it, based on my VORTEX-AIM program.
In principle currency trades use rade triggers based on percetage point. . pips. . .if I Remember correctly. FOREX Agents that I know about ask you to deposit sat $ 5000 or so and on that credit you can trade with +/- changes in the exchange rate. . if you drop into negative territory you must put up more security of course or you get liquidated.
Then there is the leverage factor, say up to 100 or 1000 if you will.
I have modified an Excel VORTEX AIM spreadsheet upon request from some AIMVortex Cstomers.
I can sell you one as well
Regards,
Hi there TooFuzzy!
From your description of the LD-AIM I hear a bell ringing. . .I never bothered to find out what this AIM-derivative actually does.
So, if I get it correct you would calculate a trade on the basis of V=10000 instead of V=5000. I assume S=0.05 and the stock value is raised by 10%:
Sell1=(11000-10000)-550= 450
If I use V=5000 for LD-AIM I get:
Sell2=(5500-5000)-275= 325
So, what you are doing is increasing the Sell Rate by a factor of 38,5% (450/325= 1,385) for the first Sell.
If the price drops 10% it comes out as
Buy1=(10000-9000)-450=550
Buy2=(5000-4500)-225= 375
In this case the Buy Rate is increased by 46,7% (550/225=1,4667) for the first Buy.
Is that the only difference between AIM and LD-AIM? If yes, it looks a bit like Vortex-AIMing, apart from the difference that Vortex is a pure Ratio System and AIM is not. In fact, with LD-AIM you introduce Multiplication Factors (MF’s) for the Trades, but as I see it, these MF’s are functional variables of the Price Change, SAFE, & Holding Zone.
Would you say that the MF’s vary in an optimal way for long price rises and long price drops? Essentially my question comes down to this:
“If for a particular stock you decide on a SAFE and a Holding Zone a the start-up level. . .(on whatever basis you do that),. . . will the MF’s that develop during + or - tradng, remain correct as the Portfolio Value changes + or -?”
If the Buys and Sells remain optimized automatically then the LD-AIM strategy appears an attractive method indeed. If however you will have to adjust the holding zone and the SAFE as the Portfolio value changes in order to trade optimally then what strategy is used to change the holding zones and SAFE to get the trading back to optimal conditions?
Hi Clive. . .you threw a curve at me and I have no idea where the ball it going! In any case, I could not catch it.
A saying comes mind: “We boldly go where Angels do not dare to tread”. . . or something like that. Maybe something out of Star Trek lingers in my head
I am not quite sure if it applies to your answer and the magic you are doing with numbers and the curve you displayed. I dare not thread there where you have gone! Could you please repeat your answer in five words or less?
Hahaha. . ha. . ha.
Your answer reminds me of some explanation of an astronomer about how recent data on a Gas Cloud measurements in the MX 345284 Galaxy points to evidence that our universe is actually a worm hole that is collapsing on itself. I did not understand any of it .
As far as I understand my ROTAI it is simply a means to relate yield-% to the to the actual average investment over time. . it is independent on how much cash is in the bank. I mean, for an investor that has a $ million in the bank and if he invests 10000 and then starts trading + or - on a time scale via some Buy/Sell methodology. . .could be anything. . .then a ROTAI can be calculated independent of the cash/equity ratio or the portion of cash that he is willing to allocate to this particular portfolio. This ROTAI would be the same for an investor with 10000 allocated to his investment as long as he carries out the same Buy & Sell strategy. As long as trading occurs the ROTAI will crank out some number: yield-% of the time-averaged investment.
That being so, your analysis appears to be focused on something completely different. The simpleton I am on that subject does not grasp any of it as yet! Never mind that though.
Please go ahead an do your magic on ROTAI for whatever you are studying if it is of interest. If it "yields" anything interesting I would love to know it. There is no hurry. Be my guest!
In the Windows Vortex program the Yield-% is actually calculated on the basis of the ROTAI. . the simple ROI is not meaningful for a dynamic trading program. The extend to which high or low ROTAI would influence trading behavior I have some idea: A Low ROTAI over several trading cycles would indicate I am investing in the wrong stock(or I am doing something wrong). A high ROTAI would confirm I am on the right track en I would keep doing what I was doing. . .but that would be no different than if I would use the simple ROI with allocated cash + equity as the investment.
The only advantage of the ROTAI I see is that it will give a very realistic figure for the yield-percentage that is achieved.
Is7550 waxes on ROCAR!
This is a very interesting topic although I must admit that I do not quite understand the exact significance of the "non-scalability" of the ROCAR.
In the Past Tom Veale and I discussed the relative merits of his ROCAR and my ROTAI in depth. . .[b[Return On Time Averaged Investment. The two methods have a somewhat different structure but also have in common that it calculates the ROI on the basis of actual capital at risk. It appears that initially ROCAR and ROTAI give quite similar results in the start phase of an investment but that, depending on the behavior of the stock and the magnitude of the withdrawals the methods diverge considerably.
In regards to the non-scalability meaning. . .(does it mean that the return for small investments is quite different than for large investment????). . .I wonder if on the basis of your analysis for non-scalability the ROTAI Method is also non-scalable? I would venture to say YES but possibly for a completely other reason. ROTAI is defined:
(See also)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=2087868
ROTAI(%)= (Profit/TAI)*100%
TAI= = SUM(n,Ci*Ti)/Tn for: i = 1,2,3,. . . n
SUM(n, Ci*Ti) = C1*(Tn - T1) + C2*(Tn - T2) + . . .+Ci*(Tn - Ti)+. . .Cn*(Tn - Tn)
The last term, is zero by definition as it only applies to the end of the investment period. (the calculation proceeds up to point Tn. The amount Cn then added or subtracted has not yet any effect on the average capital but the time from T(n-1) to T(n) is relevant in calculating the average investment.
One could modify the SUM by making the last term +. . .C(n-1)*{Tn-T(n-1)} but that would not change the result as it would automatically appear as the last relevant term Ci*{Tn-Ti} voor i=1,2,3. . .(n-1). This would only avoid adding a "zero" to the calculation.
So, that at any time the Return is calculated on the basis of an investment equivalent Ie that would have been invested for the full period from the start in the investment period and in the mean time additions(+)and withdrawals(-) are calculated to find the "average investment" for the investment period T.
In this way one gets to the unique position, sometimes, that after a period T of several stock price cycles with average rising prices, the profit could be positive and the net investment will approach zero, if the withdrawals approach the deposits in value (only the profit P is then left in the Portfolio and you get to a ROI calculation ROTAI=P/Ie -----> infinity). In the end this is a mathematically correct representation but could be considered as unrealistic in relation to the conventional concept of yield percentage. Essentially the capital at risk has become zero because it has been taken out of the Portfolio. One could, of course, then argue that the Profit is still at risk and that would be true but the profit is not part of the investment in this formula. If one includes the profit in the investment them the ROI=P/P= 1 and that would also be wrong, as the amount of money(the yield) that is taken out of the investment could be many multiples of the profit that is left.
Moreover, if the portfolio is even more profitable than “infinite” the investment Ie would become negative and the ROTAI would become negative, plus the fact that if the profit rises still more the /ROTAI/ would get smaller as more of the profit is withdrawn. So, if one understands what is happening with the ROTAI-method then the ROTAI gives a correct "picture" of the investment performance, but it no longer presents an "easily understandable behavior" of an investment for which the yield steadily increases and therefore, in the end, the ROTAI would “not make sense” to a typical AIM-investor that has no inside know-how into the ROTAI-method: he would be more at ease with the Simple ROI but then he would be using a method that not really gives a correct percentage yield for his portfolio. . . The Simple ROI would then only compare his investment with a Buy & Hold Portfolio. . .something an AIM Investor wants to avoid!
With the function ROTAI P/Ie-----> infinity the ROTAI is certainly non-scalable in relation to the Investment as well as in relation to the profit, but is it then non-scalable in a similar sense that the ROCAR is non-scalable, with your analysis method?
I am very curios as I have never analyzed the ROTAI in terms of the affect it might have on the “decision making” of the investor in dynamic trading.
The effect in the main is that with the ROCAR and the ROTAI one can, initially at least, for a low yield stock SEE the effects of the AIM-Method that, effectively investing a smaller amount of capital (than using the usual ROT-Method), gives a more CORRECT yield as a percentage.
Considering that a percentage calculation is often non-linear in relation to the quantities involved I am not surprised that you state that the ROCAR is non-scalable. For the same reason I am therefore very curios how the ROTAI stacks up in your analysis that you used for the ROCAR.
Hi Tom, you are talking about my way I think!
Your description of My Way sounds a lot like my VORTEX Method .
Years ago I used to monkey around with stories on my old website about how I was investing with Vortex and one article I wrote was called I did it My Way. . .the theme of a Frank Sinatra song, as many of the "old ones" here will remember it. My Way referred to a long run of investing in the Latin American Equity Fund using my acceleration method with the variable multiplier function and using borrowed money on equity credit.
Maybe the inventor of My Way used the Vortex principles after reading my stuff. . .I like to think that my ideas using the variable parameters caught on and created all sorts of AIM-derivatives.
My personal situation is that I am retired and I do a little technical work here and there and do the bookkeeping for my son's Home Rental Agency business he started two years ago . . .case of say 2 years of neglected tax returns and VAT-administration! I use my own bookkeeping program for it. I am the only one that understand it so he is now between a rock and a hard face and need me to do his financial administration. I decided I am going to be a banker and create a financial crisis and give my self a big bonus. . . This work keeps me hopping a bit though!
I no longer invest but keep doing dry runs as a micro-hobby. The little money I received from the motorcycle accident(in 2007) damage claim I keep for augmenting a meager pension on welfare level.
In a way I miss the exciting times I had between 1995 and 2000 when I was investing with the Vortex Turbo Method but I am not getting back into that hectic way of living.
I keep peeking at your Forum but for me investing is over. . unless I win the Lottery. Every now and then an order for a VORTEX product comes in and I process it but there is no waiting line outside my door.
I am still doing everything My Way. Most people think I am weird but it’s actually so that these people are the weird ones.
Regards,
Hi OT:Is7550
Your story sounds all too familiar to me: many good ideas end up on the shelf on account of the "wrong" way of marketing. Not many of us are like Bill Gates or guys like that. . .this is not to say that we want to be like Bill Gates but I suppose that we would be tickled pink if the effort would pay off somehow!
That idea of yours. . .getting into my computer when I am not home is still impossible for me. . . maybe your gadget will fit on my internet modem?. . . .
I suspect there must be an easy way to do that nowadays and every 10-year old probably knows how to do it.
Anyway, being away from home nowadays is a means of not being tied into the computer, so I better remain as ignorant it as I am.
Maybe I should sell the Vortex Aim system during a Garage Sale and ask $50000 or so for it.
This reminds me of a joke I made up once... The only joke I ever made up once!:
An American came to Holland on his European Tour and while strolling through Amsterdam. . .it was on a Thursday. . . he came upon a house with a garage next to it with a Garage Sale sign on it. The long-haired owner was sitting under a Parasol sipping a beer and smoking a joint. The American. . .keen to get a good deal. . asked: "I like to make a deal". The Hippy said: "Fine with me, who cares?. . .Everything is for sale”. The American. Without blinking a eye, said:
"I want it!
How much is it?
What is it?"
The hippy said: ”Ho Man, not so fast, this is Holland! . . .Lets see. . .[sips on his beer]. . .The price is only 300 Euro".
"What the hell is 300 Youro worth in Dollars?"
"Today its about $ 750. . .tomorrow probably more. For $ 750 you get everything and I let you keep the change."
"Ok, Ok, here is the dough, thanks a lot. . .What did I buy?"
The hippy grabbed the money, sips his beer and gives the American a piece of paper, and said: "The Garage, with everything in it. You have to get your garage removed by 12:00 o’clock tomorrow. Its all explained in that paper.
Hallo Everyone,
Over many years I have experienced that selling the Vortex Aim Program is not my calling. I am going to stop marketing it. Without an American approach to marketing I get nowhere. I have run out of steam!
Anybody interested in taking over?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36634723
Regards,
The Vortex Trading Program for Windows is for sale. The marketing of this program from The Netherlands is not efficient.
The Investment Method based on the Lichello AIM does not appeal to Europeans and the marketing should be conducted from an American perspective and with an good looking website and the purchase of the program should be possible with the use op a credit card.
The competition for AIM type of investing in the USA is strong. Various US parties sell AIM Software and the do this with websites that are filled with promises and features that are focused on "Sell the Sizzle & provide the steak”. There is nothing wrong with that marketing method but it does not appeal to Europeans.
I invite people to take over my Vortex Marketing and for a treasonable price we will provide all the program details.
The sales price could include a provision that royalties are to be paid but it is preferable to agree on a final price so that no royalties are due to us.
The completions is among others:
http://automaticinvestor.com/
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-basics.htm
http://my.execpc.com/~newport/
http://stocksystem.com/
http://www.aim-users.com/aimlodown.htm
http://www.stock-market-search.com/
http://www.bean-d.com/cpt/aim-stock-etf-transaction-calculator.htm
Let’s talk about the possibilities.
Regards,
Hi Ganaraska,
I know Jeff from a long way back when he was still in Germany and was already preparing his AIM-book. We got to know each other from discussions on this Forum on my VORTEX-AIM Variant. Jeff was very interested in VORTEX and we even discussed ways and means of working together for marketing the VORTEX AIM program in the USA. I read most of Jeff's book and I can say that as AIM Variant at that time he followed the Lichello features in the core but added. . .so to speak . . an outer shell to modify the buy-sell signals on the basis of market & portfolio condition. . the exact details escape me and he no doubt has As I remener it had certain VORTEX-features so that he would increase the buy orders inn the dips and increase the sell orders at the top. . .but please don't shoot me down on this.
As with any other AIM variants/derivatives. . .for example as among others Don Carlson has created. . .are creations invented by "tinkerers" (like myself) and have resulted from extensive thinking about the weaknesses of the bare AIM-method (Most simple non-professional method). The process of creating a new system takes a long time and my opinion is that only the creators can effectively use the modified system. For "outsiders" to grasp the changes fully takes along time of learning and then it is necessary that the new systems "cliks" with you. . if not then you will reject it and seek other greener pastures. . maybe VORTEX is for you? J .
That what "clicks" with one will be a turnoff for others. For the $ 20 that Jeff is asking you cannot go wrong. Believe me. . . .and Jeff is not paying me to tell you this. . .too ad. . .anyway. . .this comes from the heart: The pleasure of learning a new way of looking at things is worth more that 20 bucks any day, but you should be prepared to spends time reading the stuff with the object to understand it. . .do not expect to be struck by lightning after reading the introduction and being a Guru on it .
The same is true for the many AIM variant that are presented via this forum. . .this is no less true for the VORTEX AIM. . . I invented it and naturally I swear by it. . it is a gem. . . but it is not taking off as if it were a rocket. I know why though. . . I am a lousy marketeer and I do not like the American Advertising Methodology. . . It is a bit like this:
Every American boy can become President of the USA
It sounds illuminating but it is the biggest lie that is every invented. From the millions & millions of American boys that are born each year only one boy each 4 years can grow up to be come man that becomes President. . .all the other boys will become something else . . .or they will die before they become men. . . or they will die in a war before and after they have become men. . .or they get sick. . .and would not qualify to become President. . .you can think of many things as to why most American boys will not become President of the USA. . .and then this: no boy ever was a President of the USA. . .the youngest man that became president was already over 40 years OLD. I became a President once. . .when I was young. . some youth group. I did not help me much though in the end.
OK. . .I got carried away a bit. . .Sorry. . .I have nothing else to do at the moment. Marketing VORTEX the way many American products are marketed is not what I wanted to do. . .so, I didn’t, and nothing much happens on the Vortex Marketing Effort. Jeff is a master in marketing though, if nothing else. . . but he is a lot more that simply a good marketeer. He understand the Stock Market. . .or rather, in any case. . .Jeff understands people that are eager to play in the "Sandbox" that is called the Stock Market.
Go ahead. . buy Jeff's book. You will NOT be disappointed and you get access to Jeff himself to ask questions. That’s how you will get to know him.
You can trust him to advise you honestly . . I think. . .but I advise you never to give the control of your investment decisions out of your hands. Make sure you understand every step you make so that if it does not pan out, as you were sure it would, you will not blame The System.
Happy reading!
What exactly are you HOPING for from the big "O"?
Whow! Are you expecting me to explain a gut feeling? I just listen to what these guys are saying and choose one! I don't like McCain so I hope Obama will be a good President.
My prediction: if McCain wins, the markets will skyrocket the next day (or even the Japanese and Chinese markets the same day as they close later than the U.S. markets)
This is not a new vision. . .anyone with business interests on the high profit side argues this and McCain keeps pumping this old message. The reality is that the low income portion of the American population is fed up with big business screwing up the economy. . . the McCain Message is a old message.
Besides this, McCain comes across time and again as an angry and bitter old fighting man that wants the American people to believe the poor will get to pay the bill in the form of high taxes but he simply appears to be madly jumping around being angry at Obama and shouting that he knows how to win wars. . .that is the last thing that people want hear right now.
If I had money I would put in on Obama! America needs to be shaken up and Mister "O" will do it. Too bad his Running Mate is a chip of he old block. Colin Powel would have been a better choice. The essence of this election is hope for a better life vs more of the bankrupt visions of the GOP.
Anything is better than McCain and the cute looking lady from Alaska. His traumatic experiences as a soldier and the way he endured the miseries of his capture by the Viet Cong tormentors are evidence of a strong personality but that is by no means automatically a qualification to be a good president. A president should be a visionary most of all and second of all his visions should primarily be good for the nation. Winning wars, as McCain shouts loudly he can, is not the most pressing thing America needs to focus on.
Sorry, I got carried away a bit. If Obama becomes president the majority of Americans will believe things will get better.
That faith will make it so!
It would appear that your TurboVest would be in concert with the current V-Wave "negative cash reserve" reading.
How do you feel about that synchronization?
Well Tom, that synchronization is beautiful, I see a -33% cash advice. As I explained this method is great if one has plenty of reserves. . . but maybe your V-Wave means something different than I think. A TurboVest Indicator (TVI) would steadily increase as share values drop. The TVI would essentially mean this: As the TVI rises it becomes more attractive to purchase larger amount of cheap shares. I could imagine that if the Vortex AIM buy Advice would normally be
Buy= M*(PC-V)
One would instead modify the buy Advice to
Buy = TVI*M*(PC-V)
So, as the share priced drops the Advice would be come eventually
Buy Everything
Where did I hear that before????
Your reference to margin buying is not quite correct for TurboVest. As I understand "margin buying" it is usually promoted by brokers in a bull market at a point the rising prices have pushed the share prices into the tree tops and the greedy investors(the herd) are made to believe that NOW is the time to invest with borrowed money. . . then lots of people purchase the entire lot of shares with borrowed money. The share price needs to drop only a little and right away they are in the red and if that happens the lender will request extra money under a thread to liquidate the investment. TurboVest works just the other way!
One needs to have a healthy investment to start with and only after a DROP in price borrow money if the Reserve is 0. . and the shares are worth buying. . . Then you wait with your usual AIM Intervals and then you buy again and repeats this a number of times to the bottom.
There is, of course, always the choice to bail out at the top and wait for the bottom but how many people can do that? Anway, THAT is not AIMing! The TurboVest method follows the AIMing rules!
The terrible thing about current state of affairs is this: I still have no money to invest. The good thing is: I have not lost any!
re: The bleeding has to stop somewhere.
My car had an oil leak, but it finally stopped. Boy, was I relieved.
The bleeding stops when the patient is dead.
Did your car die because there was no oil left?
**************************************************
Anyway, it has been a beautiful market the last two months or so, especially for the Vortex Turbovest Methode.
Anyone with a solid portfolio some months ago, when de average share price was double current rates, could have systematically kept investing on the way down with equity credit. . or with one's own solid reserves. . .(investing is not for poor people anyway).
As I have shown in the past with the Turbovest Method the prices can drop close to 50% and one would still be in a break-even position on the borrowed money vs equity value. At the same time anyone having sold most shares on the high point and not bought any shares since then is of course much better off now and is able to buy everything at the current give-away prices. . . .something plenty of professional investors have already done.. . .they bought from the “scared” as Tom Veale would call it, and they used the money they took from the greedy to do it!
AIMing is fun on the way up as well as on the way down
I assume all AIMers are as happy as a pig in shit today!
Right?
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
News Flash:
Per immediate effect the Vortex AIM Program is listed on Softpedia. On this website one can review various details en comments and also you can inspect several operational windows of the program:
http://www.softpedia.com/get/Others/Finances-Business/Vortex.shtml
Feel free to send us questions about Vortex.
News Flash:
Per immediate effect the Vortex AIM Program is listed on Softpedia. On this website one can review various details en comments and also you can inspect several operational windows of the program:
http://www.softpedia.com/get/Others/Finances-Business/Vortex.shtml
Feel free to send us questions about Vortex.
Hi Leapyear92,
The Runtime Error 217 you encountered with installing Vortex occurred under the installation program Inno Setup. This has not happened to any Vortex user before. Moreover Inno Setup is being used by thousands of other people that use it to "Package" their programs into installable exe files (the internet discussions on Runtime Error 217 are ample indication that you are not alone with this problem). We cannot find any evidence that Inno Setup itself might be the problem and we suspect that it is something on your two computers related to Microsoft or your protection system(s).
We are sorry we can not help you any further on this. It's a real pity that you won't be able to use Vortex.
Regards,
Hi Leapyear92,
On this this Runtime Error 217 I am running out of suggestions. The programmer of Vortex has also not yet been able to find how to solve it. . .can not find anything in the programming that relates to it. The curious thing is that this is the first time we heard of it. Possibly it is precisely because your computer has extra super-duper protection facilities that this problem occurs on your computers.
It might be better to contact Chris Kruidenier directly from his website:
http://www.ckweb.nl/index.php
I hope this last-ditch effort might give some anwers.
Leapyear92,
If you still cannot install Vortex due to "Runtime error 217" then I have no idea how to fix it. I did not hear of this problem with Dutch users. Do you have your computers checked out recently at a professional computer business so they are in optimum condition?
I will copy this message to Chris to see if he has any more suggestions.
Regards,
Adam, technically your point on the 80% drop 10 1/5th of original value is correct
I can give you a long list of good stocks that dropped to 20% or so and at that point to recover they have to increase 5 fold to recover, which is highly unlikely.
bet the recovery occurs usually in much greater steps that the drop. Especially with penny stocks this effect is very strong and THAT is an important feature in AIM-like investing:
A drop from 10 to 5 is 50% but a rise from 5 to 10 is 100%. The arithmetic is clear but when a stock @ 2 cents drops to 1 cent it can only recover with steps of 1 cent and one can double the investment at 1 cent in one step. This principle works at any price level and is the principle mechanism of price splitting for expensive stocks, say from 200 to 100. It works in two ways:
1 The price of 200 lingers in the memory and people believe it will "recover" to 200: the 100 appears a bargain;
2 The steps for the increase of 1 dollar to buy de "desirable" stock is 1 % is 50% of the 1% increase of the original stock. . .to spend 1 dollar is much easier than to spend 2 dollars. . .people will more easily start paying more for the stock than at the 200 price.
This way stocks usually rebound at much greater pace (as percentages) than they fall.
That is the power of buying the deep divers. . . all other things remaining equal. . .which is not always so.
Still, it is the mechanism of my turbovest method: keep buying after your Reserve runs out.
Well, Adam that dropping down to "nothing" has always been a problem with the AIM technique. Within a trading range the buying on the dip is OK but if it keeps diving it is logical to put a stop to the buying and bail out if you have no faith in it anymore. That's why I used to like trading dollars and volatile mutual fund( like Latin American Equity Fund). Anyway that aspect has been discussed to death!
With the TurboVest method buying on equity credit is essential that one only does it with commodities that hold their value and have good potential to cycle back up or cycle into a trading range.
Good luck in the current down run!
Well Aimster,
The Canadian trip set me back about € 1300 and a bit. For a holiday it does not appears to be a lot of money but considering it was just a family visit it is a lot of dough!
Well with the cat at 13 you must be something like 31 or so!
Regards,
Hi There Leapyear92,
The programmer of Vortex has done some searching on this. It appears that this runtime error is popping up in many places.
It could have to do with a Norton program. Here is a link on the information he found and some extra information:
*********************************************
http://www.instant-registry-fixes.org/dealing-with-runtime-error-217/
Also
"Delphi executables will die with runtime error 217 when an exception was raised before SysUtils is initialized or after it is finalized. In both situations the regular exception handling is not put in place.
If the error occurs right at your application's startup, check your initialization sections. Try to move code into a later part, e.g. into FormCreate() events.
Otherwise check your units' finalization sections.
Some typical situations where this can happen:
* unexpected date formats
* disk or registry accesses where the user has not sufficient privileges"
Also
"I'm also having the same problem since I upgraded to IE 7 and now with the
Norton upgrade"
Also
"hi i had the same problem after i installed norton i got a fix on a microsoft form, found i wasn’t the only one, it seems to be a problem with norton confidential helper add on, if you disable it will solve the problem i did and its gone. go to, ine-tools-manage add ons-enable/disable add ons-disable
confidential helper"
******************************
Chris thinks this last message may well be your problem. As you have the problem on two computers it may be that you have the Norton installation on both of them. Check it out and do the following:
[i/]1. Go to: control panel/internet options/programs/manage add ons/
2. Find norton confidential browser helper in the list
[add ons that have been used by internet explorer]
3. Click "disable" at the bottom of window where it says "settings."
4. Click "OK"
Will require restart.[/]
Please let me know if this is the fix!
Regards,
Chris Kruidenier/
Conrad Winkelman
Hi Leapyear92,
Sorry for replying to your question so late. I came back from Holidays last week and did not immediately address the forum.
This problem appears to have something to do with technicalities of the software that are related to the language. Chris Kruidenier has stated some solution approaches in the past. . .I shall look them up and get back to you.
In the meantime I suggest you do the following:
1)Download Version 1.24c from the free download page. . .you may not have the latest version;
I believe in the downloading you get the question about language and that should be answered "System Language"
If the installation still does not work try the different language options when you download again.
After installation this to check:
2) Go to the Pull Down menu "Options" and click on the tab "Options" in the menu(there is only one tab active)
3) Go to the topic "Language" and activate the option "Use System Language"
I shall look for the "Fix" that was used ion the past.
If you have no luck please contact Chris Kruidenier on his pages:
Home Page:
- Nederlands: http://www.ckweb.nl/index_n.php
- English : http://www.ckweb.nl/index.php
From that you can get his e-mail address.
Regards,
Conrad Winkelman
The question from Adam Helberg was:
I was curious how others are dealing with dropping stocks
This question on what to do when stock prices are on a dropping run was put to me recently. I have addressed the issue in detail in relation to my TurboVest Method on
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31678836
because I felt it was more appropriate for the Vortex Forum than here. However it is interesting to note here that The Grabber is sticking with the essential AIM-technique (keep on buying)while others would rather play the waiting game" a-la MACRO, or similar techniques. Both methods are essentially the right thing to do! Waiting for a larger drop is an essential AIM technique(only the price drop is a little larger than normally)! It is worth mentioning that an extreme form of continuing to buy on the down run is the fundamental feature of TurboVest and when applied to the suitable stocks TurboVest will result in a high leverage that will in most cases return high profits: it simply requires to keep buying into the negative cash territory. . .a super AIM technique!
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
Curious that this question of "What to do with dropping prices?" when one is AIMing also came up a few days ago from one of the Dutch Vortex program users. . .he switched to a "waiting mode" and asked me what else to do. He had liquidated more or less on the previous tops. I said that was a perfect AIMing move. . or rather an AIMing unmoved (doing nothing). The essential idea in AIMing is to Sell high and Buy low and waiting a bit in a down trend is the smart thing to do. . .the investor calls the shots on the buy interval with an "overlay" management technique. . .something like the MACRO or other "waiting games".
One technique that I strongly advice for a falling market is to apply the TurboVest Method. . .but only with "stock" that cannot go broke like FOREX or Index certificates and the like(turbo=super vortex):
1 You have a portfolio value of say 100 at the start of the down trend;
2 Wait till the market drops a bit, say 5% or 10 %
3 Carry out the usual Buy Advice. . .this works exactly the same for regular Aiming as for Vortex Aiming;
4 Keep doing this with every drop in price to get an Buy Advice. Most AIMers are afraid of running out of cash but that is a good thing in AIM;
5 When the Reserve = 0 keep buying on the usual routine and use the credit on the value of the portfolio (borrow money!). . .the total portfolio value will have decreased as usual but you have gained a large number of low-priced shares. . . in most cases there will be some recoveries and then you can sell some in between the buys;
6 Keep buying as usual on the way down until you are out of borrowing capacity (stock value = the loan). . .you need some extra resources to cover the loan so that your stock will not be in danger of having to be liquidated. . .poor people should not invest so this technique is for people with reserves;
7 The stock index or say the US Dollar WILL recover in price after a drop. . .even if it stays lower than before it will continue fluctuate.
With this TurboVest method you will have accumulated a very large number of low priced stocks. The market can easily drop to 40% or 50% from its value before you get to the break-even point (Stock value = Loan Value). At this point the market has reached a crash-position and this happens not very often at all, so the chances are high that you never even get to the break-even point and that market recovers after dropping only 30% or less! Reap the profits in the Recovery Run.
The leverage with this method can be as high as 7 with a 75% borrowing limit on the portfolio value . . .borrowing $ 75 on a $100 portfolio. . .in the end with a starting portfolio value of 100 you can borrow 700 and not get into negative portfolio-value territory. . .this is quite dependent on the price drops at which you execute buys (small steps are better that large steps. . .but cost more on trading fees)!
Most people find it hard to believe that this is a SAFE and extremely effective method. . . obviously one should not do this with risky stocks but only on investments that can not go to zero value.
This is my advice for a run with dropping prices. One can also invest in put-options or regular turbo's and various other derivatives. These also are risky and if your expectations are not fulfilled you lose the investment. With TurboVest you bet on the market going down to say 50% and then you know that you can survive a 50% drop but you also know that a 50% drop almost never occurs. . .so 95 % (or so) of the time the market will recover before it hits the 50% drop.
TurboVest is a beautiful Game!
In my Dutch book the TurboVest Method is shown step by step in Chapter 11, illustrating how the leverage factor=7 is achieved. In the English Short version it will be added as an example in Section 8: Portfolio Growth with Dropping Stock Prices.
I came back from the great North on the 14th of August. . .from there where the cold winds come from!
I actually did again go to watch the salmon race up the Bulkley River in Moricetown. . .wanted to buy dry smoked salmon(jerkey) but the local Indians were no longer selling to the public . . .I bought some in Vancouver on the Granville Island "Farmers Market". . . ridiculous high price. . . I am still trying to figure out how the heck a farmer grows a salmon!
The visit was mostly family related and lack of money prevented me from renting a car while in Vancouver. So I had little opportunity to get to meet up with Mark Hing. . .too far away even on the 21-speed bicycle I had at my disposal. . .actually I did not dispose of it but just rode it up/down the Vancouver streets. . .The Old Man & The Bike. . . Vancouver looks a bit like Manhattan nowadays. . with the WTC's there gone that is. I stood next to the tallest building on Georgia Street and I felt as if I was a microbe.
Up North I got into thinking about Peat Processing. . .my nephew has a real Peat Bog and wants to liquidate it. . .(turn it into money). . .my gray matter is working overtime now. I will apply the Vortex Method on the Peat Bog and use the Turbo Method as well.
1) I will gasify the peat in a Vortex Gasifier;
2) I will burn the gas in a Turbo Generator set to make electricity
What else is peat good for?
Anybody game to invest in my pet project. . .I mean peat project?
We are now designing a Peat Harvesting Robotic Mole(PHRM). . .it works like the vacuum cleaner robot but then under water: It digs itself into the peat bog and sucks up the peat as a slurry, presses the water out of it and makes high density peat pellets(HDPP) which are blown into Floating Peat Pellet Hopper (FPPH) that is dragged behind the mole. The pellets are the fuel for the gasifier, just like wood pellets can be used. When the peat is all processed we have a lake on which we can hold ice sailing races during the Winter Olympics in 2010 and the gasifier is switched to sawdust pellets. The electric power will be marketed via the Vortex Power Company.
Shares are US$ 5000 and I am going to issue 10000 shares.
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
As we head to the "Vortex" of the next election. . .
Buy the Vortex Program. . . It will tell you the results of the election on October 25th
Beat the pundits!
PS: I am not serious!
Tanks Tom, maybe kayak races on the rivers there
One race will be traveling from Vancouver to a tiny village called Telkwa on Highway 16. . . some people there call it a town.
Close to there in Morrice Town one can see the salmon race upstream on the waterfalls. . . the ones that are not caught.
Regards,
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
Hi anybody/everybdy!
I stuck my head out of the ground just to see what's happening and wanting to tell you that Vortex version 1.24c is now available for downloading:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30901716
or see the Vortex link under "AIM Software" on Tom's Page Header.
Im off to the races in Canada for 3 weeks! If I am lucky I might run into Mark Hing(Aptus). . .I have to dig out his address yet.
Keep well,
For the program VORTEX version 1.24 is now available. We have changed various user-features that were not 100 % clear. For example working with two currencies:
The Dollar and the Euro
An European user would normally buy in Euro currency but he can change the Portfolio and Reporting in Dollars. In America the user would normally buy in Dollars but can also change the Portfolio and Reporting to Euro.
It is also possible to do this with Rupies and Roebels. . .the conversion mechanism using the published(downloaded) Exchange Rate that is chosen is the same but the names in the Program should then be changed as a Special id that is desirable. Until then you need to get used to the choices you as user make: for example
Dollar-----> Rupie
Euro------> Roeble
The appropriate exchange rate is then chosen from a downloaded list of prices. But the Help File still has the Dollar and Euro names.
Remark
I am away from home from July 24 till August 14. I will be traveling to Vancouver, Canada and up North a bit. For as far as I can manage it I will attempt to respond to messages but I advise you to contact the programmer on his website. Vortex users already know his e-mail address.
For downloading VORTEX free for the Demo see the information above or from this:
http://www.ckweb.nl/vortex_us/index.php
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
Amen!
On Reagan to Carter: . . ."are you better of now, than you were four years ago?"
I was thinking of the time when Reagan was campaigning and addressed the issue of the low value of the dollar then (not to be compared with the low value the Buck now). I heard it from the horse's mouth:
He made a speech and said: ". . .nowadays when someone finds a dollar bill on the street he will pick it up, in the hope there might be something of value underneath it".
Anyway, Reagan is reported to have fallen asleep during important meetings but he did not get disqualified for that. He also often gave answers that made no sense to anyone. . .Reagan often appeared not to have any idea wat the question implied. . . but everybody loved it and cheered just the same.
I say that as long as a person is qualified to run for President he should not be discounted for not being en expert on the pressing issues.. . .the opposition will attack any standpoint anyway so one would be well advised to avoid being ridiculed debating difficult issues. If a candidate would answer on various questions: "I don't know. I will let the experts suggest an answer an choose the one that I like the best" he or she would get my vote. One that lies does not!
Coach g,
Have you heard him speak about the economy...I saw him on CNBC "Squawk Box" and Maria asked him about capital gains taxes and he had no idea what she was talking about.
Nope! I did not hear that. Suppose Obama did know something about what Maria ??? was asking him and he had given a clever technical answer on the nuts and bolts of capital gains tax. . .how many Americans pay capital gains tax and of those how many would have understood any of the questions and answers? How many Americans never have any capital gains and how many of those would understand such questions and answers?
As a President one does not need to be an expert on all of the questions they will get. . .50% of the experts disagrees with the other 50%. As a presidential candidate the best answer might be an answer with which 80% of the people would feel happy about. The trick is to give answers with which one can disagree. Not to stick his foot in his mouth and not telling blatant lies like Hillary did about "ducking bullets" in Bosnia may well be what gets Obama into the White House. . .barring other disasters that may come on his way.
I think it is a mistake to think that a President should be an expert on most of the governmental issues the government might have to deal with. The candidate should be able to be the leader that people want.
Conrad Winkelman
What is Vortex AIMing? Look for my Vortex Discussion Forum:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1341
Well, about this Walter for President. . .
He appears to be almost never suck for words but how will he get out of the suitcase when he gets that call at 03:00 in the morning?
Obama is certainly an effective speaker!
On that basis he will win from McCain with his hands tied behind his back! The problem may be that many Americans wil fall for the argument that Obama has no track record.
Obama has exactly wat a President needs: the ability to give people hope for a better future.
AIMster,
10^12 Dollar is a lot of money:
On the other side, though, the massive $1 Trillion+ cost of the Iraq war is going to have to be balanced against other domestic issues.
If that money would have been distributed to the Iraki's maybe they would have been a lot better of now. . .they would have bought a lot of American products. . .if my estimate is close every Iraki would have received about $ 500 000. Maybe I am wrong, five years ago there were a lot more Iraki's than there are now.
I pick B and hope that all Americans will get a new dream.