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OT: As August Arrives, Sharks Should Be Circling
Source: OTC Journal
August is flat out my favorite month of the year to buy stocks with a three to six month time horizon. No one is around, and no one is paying attention. Good microcaps tend to drift down on light volume as there are typically a few small sellers around and not many buyers.
In mid September the kids go back to school and everybody gets back to work. Oversold stocks rebound on light volume. The rebound attracts the "late to the party" gang, and you sit around wondering why you didn't buy GDVI when it was really cheap in August.
Like a shark, you should be circling for value and oversold situations. You should be hunting the weak to take advantage of the bargains which vaporize as soon as business returns to normal.
I have often admired the Italians. After all, they have some of the best art, music, wine, food, cars, and clothes in the world. Yet, somehow they manage to virtually close the country for the month of August. If it weren't for the American free enterprise go-getter mentality, we would do the same. Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be better for our national psyche.
---------------------
GDVI is most definitevely one of those heavily oversold stocks that are poised to recover nicely. The next 10-Q (around August 15?) should be the start of the turn around. If you are a shark, circle no more. Grab some GDVI b4 the 10-Q and the month of August is out. You'll be glad you did it, IMO.
Mike
From the Stock House:
"Well something is definitely 'up'. Share price up by with volume of I will contact Mr. Forhan again and see what he knows if anything. Of course he may not tell me what he knows and I suspect that will be the case. He may however, have an update on pending filings."
----------------------------
I already wrote him two days ago, and I got no answer thus far. Usually he is answering the same day, or the next.
If anyone would like to contact Bill Forham (the CEO) here is his E-mail address:
bforhan@invictatravelgroup.com
Mike
OT: As August Arrives, Sharks Should Be Circling
Source: OTC Journal
August is flat out my favorite month of the year to buy stocks with a three to six month time horizon. No one is around, and no one is paying attention. Good microcaps tend to drift down on light volume as there are typically a few small sellers around and not many buyers.
In mid September the kids go back to school and everybody gets back to work. Oversold stocks rebound on light volume. The rebound attracts the "late to the party" gang, and you sit around wondering why you didn't buy CIRT when it was really cheap in August.
Like a shark, you should be circling for value and oversold situations. You should be hunting the weak to take advantage of the bargains which vaporize as soon as business returns to normal.
I have often admired the Italians. After all, they have some of the best art, music, wine, food, cars, and clothes in the world. Yet, somehow they manage to virtually close the country for the month of August. If it weren't for the American free enterprise go-getter mentality, we would do the same. Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be better for our national psyche.
---------------------
CIRT is most definitevely one of those heavily oversold stocks that are poised to recover nicely. The next 10-Q (around August 15?) should be the start of the turn around. If you are a shark, don't circle no more. Grab some CIRT. You'll be glad you did it, IMO.
Mike
Zettler, thanks for posting it. I was going to ask Andy the same question. You saved me the trouble.
I like this part: "Either way, the stock is undervalued at .002, .003 & .01 for that matter. The Company hit a few bumps, but strong management and some very timely web-based businesses may help it through to growth."
Mike
Zardiw, see the "Fact Sheet" (if you haven't seen it yet).
Re: "You still got some of that?....You're rich..lol..et z"
Of course I still have them. But, since I started to buy at 0.002, my average is 0.0014.
I'll be rich (we all can be, for that matter), if Andy Arms
of Equitilink L.L.C (who said IVGA value is 0.1)
Here is the IVGA Fact Sheet, that Andy put together:
http://www.equitilinkpr.com/pdf/IVGA%20Report%20040405.pdf
I'm going to write or call him to see if he still stands by his valuation. You can do it as well:
Andy Arms
Director of Client Services
Equitilink L.L.C
La Jolla, Calif.
858-824-1940 local
877-788-1940 toll-free
858-824-0452 fax
andy@equitilinkpr.com
PS: I don't know about 0.1, but it can go to several pennies if: (i) the 10-K, (ii) 10-Q, (iii) back to OTC, and (iv) news about the VoIP, Inc. come out.
Mike
Re: "Check out their websites. They are really going to town on adding content. I also have noticed that they have a new advertiser on their travelhotlink site (BritXchange). That is a good sign. Every day I've been checking their travelhotlink and every day I notice some improvement. If they keep this up they just might make it."
Zettler,
I've been also checking the web myself, and I think IVGA is going back into pennies soon. All we need is: (i) the 10-K, (ii) then a double 10-Q, (iii) to get out of the pinkies, and (iv) some strong forward looking statements (after we are back into OTCBB).
Today's little spike might be a sign of things to come? Let's hope so.
Mike
Up we go! Although not stelar, the 10-Q is better than I've been expected.
VoIP is just starting to make money. Thus far the company has mostly spent money on the network. Time to collect some rewards. Plus, the fact that it goes from OTC to AMEX w/o any R/S (like most of the other Co's) it's a very positive start.
"Covad also announced today that it has been accepted for listing on the American Stock Exchange (Amex) under the symbol "DVW" for data, voice and wireless. Covad shares will begin trading on Amex on July 28, 2005. Covad was previously traded on the OTCBB."
Don't forget to change "COVD" with "DVW," and enjoy the ride, IMO.
Mike
AMEX + a decent enough 10-Q, should start moving this bad thing fast, IMO.
Mike
Global Diversified Industries, Inc. in Guidance to Shareholders Projects Revenues for Fiscal Year to Top $9.5 Million; Close to 150 Percent Increase
PR Newswire - July 25, 2005 05:00
CHOWCHILLA, Calif., July 25, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Global Diversified Industries, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GDVI), focused on the modular building industry with emphasis on the education market, today provided guidance for its shareholders for the fiscal year ended April 30, 2005, reporting that revenues will top $9.5 million, an approximate 150 percent increase compared to revenues of $3.8 million in the previous fiscal year.
"While the audit of the fiscal year performance is not yet completed, and filing of our results with the Securities and Exchange Commission will follow the audit, we do believe the fiscal year was profitable, a major accomplishment for a Company as young as ours," said Phil Hamilton, CEO. "The Company also recently shared with its stockholders information about our updated web site at http://www.gdvi.net and soon we will send shareholders marketing literature about our products, to show the breadth and quality of what we are making available to the education and other markets. We are very pleased by the achievements of the fiscal year, but we believe it will be dwarfed by our future accomplishments."
Anyone still here? I see the volume jumped today. Hope this is in anticipation of the 10-K.
Mike
Post of the week (from RB):
simpsonrc3
15 Jul 2005, 10:43 PM EDT
Msg. 22998 of 22998
"guys, cirt reminds me of the space shuttle- always a delay, but you know that damn thing will blast off sooner or later!"
----------------------------
So true, IMO
Mike
***BIZ DD:
"Interesting how this stock keeps going down but the fundamentals keep improving????"
Bacon,
Good question. Just started doing my DD on BIZ. I'll let you know about my two penny thoughts after I do it (hopefully over the weekend). Is it any talk about AMEX delisting? If so, do you have a site, or it's just a rumor. I'll appreciate any pro's and con's anyone might have on BIZ.
PS: My pet long-term pennies: CIRT (a strong buy right now, IMO), VFIN (bottom, good buy, IMO), GDVI (should start moving again next month), MOBL (bought most at 0.0185 in Dec. 03, sold some @ 0.4, and taking my chance with the free shares).
Mike
---------------------------
1. Web site:
www.dsl.net
2. Charts:
2.1 StockCharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?BIZ
2.2 Barchart.com
http://quotes.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=biz
3. Basic DD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=biz.OB
4. Better DD:
http://www.ddmachine.com/default.asp?s=biz.ob
5. Advanced DD:
http://www.finitesite.com/irishbull/
6. Maintainance-type DD:
6.1 SEC fillings:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/filings.jsp?symbol=biz
6.2 What others are saying:
http://www.boardcentral.com/
Mike
***CIRT DD:
1. Web sites:
1.1 CirTran Corporation:
www.CirTran.com
1.2 CirTran-Asia:
www.CirTran-Asia.com
2. Charts:
2.1 StockCharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?CIRT
2.2 Barchart.com
http://quotes.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=cirt
3. Basic DD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cirt.OB
4. Better DD:
http://www.ddmachine.com/default.asp?s=cirt.ob
5. Advanced DD:
http://www.finitesite.com/irishbull/
6. Maintainance-type DD:
6.1 SEC fillings:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/filings.jsp?symbol=cirt
6.2 What others are saying:
http://www.boardcentral.com/
Mike
***GDVI DD:
1. Web site:
http://www.gdvi.net/
2. Charts:
2.1 StockCharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?GDVI
2.2. Barchart.com
http://quotes.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=gdvi
3. Basic DD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gdvi.OB
4. Better DD:
http://www.ddmachine.com/default.asp?s=gdvi.ob
5. Advanced DD:
http://www.finitesite.com/irishbull/
6. Maintainance-type DD:
6.1 SEC fillings:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/filings.jsp?symbol=gdvi
6.2 What others are saying:
http://www.boardcentral.com/
Mike
OT: Thanks "Moxa1." I'll check it out.
Mike
Moxa1, what board is "Wise" posting these days? Just curious. Haven't heard from him for a long time. EOM
Mike
I guess everyone is wating for the 10-K numbers. They should come out around August 1-st, and the 10-Q about a month later. The numbers are expected to be good, and will finally move us to the next step.
Mike
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This is just the start:
1. CirTran anticipates reporting record sales of $4.22 million -- its biggest second quarter ever -- for three months ended June 30, 2005, up 119 over the $1.92 million reported for the same period a year ago. In addition, he said sales for the second quarter were up approximately 1.3 million, or 44%, as compared with record first quarter sales of $3.92 million reported.
The $4.22MM represents more than 3 times the income for the whole 2003 year, and more close to 1/2 of revenue for the record 2004 year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CIRT.OB&annual
2. CirTran expects to report sales for the six months ended June 30 of $7.14 million, up 178% over the $2.57 million reported for the same period in fiscal 2004.
3. "...the company is projecting that it will report its first profitable quarter since becoming a public company in 2000."
4. Think what the revenue/net revenue will look like next Q(actually the one we are in), and the following Q's. With over $80MM in new contracts booked for the first half of this year(see below), that's not very hard to see where CIRT is heading.
Keep your shares folks (IMO). This type of explosive growth is a very rare occurence with penny stocks, and sooner rather than later the market should adjust the PPS accordingly.
Mike
-----------------------------
"The signing of this agreement -- giving CirTran more than $80 million in new contracts signing this year -- ended an extraordinary first half by any and all measures," said Saliba."
"In little more than a year since being founded, our CirTran-Asia subsidiary has become a major player in the made-for-TV consumer and consumer electronics marketplace," he said, "while at the same time CirTran's core IT-oriented manufacturing business in the U.S. has grown as well."
"Manufacturing for the sold-on-TV market requires a tight rein on costs without sacrificing quality," he said. "The experience CirTran gained in earning our reputation as an innovator and manufacturer of IT products, including the prestigious ISO 9001:2000 certification for our Salt Lake City facility, has clearly carried over to our Asian operations."
"Not Resting on First-Half Laurels"
"CirTran considers the tremendous success we've had in winning new business in 2005 as just a great place to start," Hawatmeh said.
"We will not be resting on our first-half laurels," he said. "CirTran is working to grow our business while maintaining the high quality standards that helped us stand out from the crowd of those competing for new business in Asia and here in the U.S."
***CirTran Projects Record Sales and First-Ever Profitable Quarter
Monday July 11, 8:30 am ET
SALT LAKE CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 11, 2005--CirTran Corporation (OTCBB:CIRT - News), an international full-service contract manufacturer of IT, consumer and consumer electronics products, today said that it projects reporting record sales for the second straight quarter when it files a 10-Q for the second quarter of fiscal 2005 next month.
Iehab J. Hawatmeh, CirTran's founder, president and CEO, also said that the company is projecting that it will report its first profitable quarter since becoming a public company in 2000.
Mr. Hawatmeh said CirTran anticipates reporting record sales of $4.22 million -- its biggest second quarter ever -- for three months ended June 30, 2005, up 119 over the $1.92 million reported for the same period a year ago. In addition, he said sales for the second quarter were up approximately 1.3 million, or 44%, as compared with record first quarter sales of $3.92 million reported.
Mr. Hawatmeh said CirTran expects to report sales for the six months ended June 30 of $7.14 million, up 178% over the $2.57 million reported for the same period in fiscal 2004.
CirTran's 'Best Start Ever'
"This is clearly our best start ever," said Mr. Hawatmeh. "Revenues are well up, with more than $80 million in new business backlog signed during the first half of 2005, while we've continued to reduce and control costs."
Mr. Hawatmeh said the company's growth has been "both at home in Salt Lake City, where we have added to our contracts, revenues and employee base, as well as at CirTran-Asia, where the company has continued to grow its business base in building products for the sold-on-TV marketplace.
"CirTran has emerged from a down period and is running full steam ahead," he said. "We look forward to rewarding our shareholders' trust and investments as we continue toward a profitable 2005."
About CirTran Corporation
Founded in 1993, CirTran Corporation (OTCBB:CIRT - News; www.CirTran.com) is a premier international full-service contract manufacturer of low to mid size volume contracts for printed circuit board assemblies, cables and harnesses to the most exacting specifications. Headquartered in Salt Lake City, CirTran's modern 40,000-square foot non-captive manufacturing facility -- the largest in the Intermountain Region -- provides "just-in-time" inventory management techniques designed to minimize an OEM's investment in component inventories, personnel and related facilities, while reducing costs and ensuring speedy time-to-market.
About CirTran-Asia
CirTran-Asia (www.CirTran-Asia.com) was formed in 2004 as a high-volume manufacturing arm and wholly-owned subsidiary of CirTran Corporation with its principal office in ShenZhen, China. CirTran-Asia operates in three primary business segments: high-volume electronics, fitness equipment and household products manufacturing, focusing on being a leading manufacturer for the multi-billion dollar Direct Response Industry, which sells through infomercials, print and internet advertisements.
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. With the exception of historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this press release involve risk and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement.
Contact:
CirTran Corporation
Trevor M. Saliba, 801-963-5112
trevor@cirtran.com
or
The Kaminer Group
David A. Kaminer, 914-684-1934
dkaminer@kamgrp.com
***Invicta Group Inc. Shareholder Update
7/7/2005 9:00:31 AM
MIAMI BEACH, Fla., Jul 7, 2005 (PRIMEZONE via COMTEX) -- Invicta Group Inc. (Pink Sheets:IVGA) announced today a Shareholder Update on the company.
Invicta Group is experiencing delays in completing its annual audits and also the first quarter report. The result of which has relegated Invicta to the Pink Sheets. IVGA continues to work with our auditors and hopes to have the 10K filed shortly, followed by the 3/31/05 10Q. The company will file for OTCBB trading thereafter and will work to improve our communications to the public and timely filings of its 10Q and 10K in the future. IVGA can be found online at www.pinksheets.com
Invicta Group Inc. (IVGA) depends on future sales and profits. IVGA has not been able to cover expenses on its subsidiaries in 2004, in spite of sales exceeding $10 million. The company has been under capitalized from the day it became a public company. Marketing dollars have not been available to brand the subsidiaries; also margins are to low in certain sectors of the marketplace, the high cost of staffing and running call centers, versus generating sales on the internet, has resulted in losses for the calendar year 2004.
The management team has been successful in downsizing its staff and releasing expensive employees inherited from acquisitions made in 2004, and has shut down subsidiaries that were losing money and more importantly, started a new subsidiary, Travel Hot Link; an Internet media company that sells advertising to travel suppliers online, generating revenues from advertising income on its website, www.travelhotlink.com
Invicta Group announced, 4/12/05, the launch of its newest subsidiary, Travel Hot Link, www.travelhotlink.com. The site is a B-2-C website offering discounted travel from travel suppliers worldwide. Travel Hot Link will send 10 million e-mails weekly to its e-mail database of 40 million opt-in travel enthusiasts, reaching the 40 million on a monthly basis.
Bill Forhan, CEO, stated: "We will offer travel and entertainment companies an alternative media resource to market their perishable products, last minute, via the Internet to a targeted audience of travel enthusiasts that are seeking a discounted travel product."
Our team of website builders and graphic designers has been hard at work revamping some of our existing sites and building new ones.
We have just launched our newest site, www.onlyfirstandbusiness.com. This site is dedicated to providing international airline discounts directly to the public of up to 70% on first class and business class fares on a large number of the world's most recognized airlines.
Additional information on the company will be available after the 10K is filed.
SOURCE: Invicta Group Inc.
Invicta Group Inc.
Investor Relations:
David Scott, COO
(305) 866-6525
www.invictatravelgroup.com
***CNN advertising for the "Hot Dog Express:"
Just before the update on London atack (at 5:48 PM, ET), the advertising went on for about 1 minute. It showed the machine, and some details about the advantages of using it. The # to call is: 1-800-721-9500. It costs 3 instalment payements of $19.95 each, plus S&H (and one also gets a set of 53 small plastic containers for free).
CIRT should react well to the news tomorrow. Just got home, so I'll order three machines tomorrow (although I'm not a big hot dogs fun, but my son & daughter are). The other large holders of CIRT shares should also buy it. If you don't like hot dogs, you always can give it to someone in your familly or friend that likes it. If you like it, you should also spread the word. If it's as good as the advertising was showing it to be, I'm pretty sure the machines will sell well.
Mike
Master,
"Not my call, I followed A2G here. Not too sure he didn't leave us over the past month or so, but my thanks to him."
I don't know who "A2G" is, but I saw your post about it on some other board, I checked it out, I liked it, and after several days got some at 0.095. Planning to sell at least 1/2 in the 0.4's (if it goes there, as a think it would tomorrow). Thanks again. Nice ride!
Mike
Thanks Harr, this is good news!
Mike
Thanks Master, nice call.
Got some @0.095 and still have them. Have a nice weekend!
Mike
OT: Do fundamentals—or emotions—drive the stock market?
Emotions can drive market behavior in a few short-lived situations. But fundamentals still rule. The only sure driver will be this Q #-s. If as good as most of us expect them to be, fundamentals will win!
Mike
------------------------------------
Marc Goedhart, Timothy Koller, and David Wessels
The McKinsey Quarterly, 2005 Special Edition: Value and performance
There's never been a better time to be a behaviorist. During four decades, the academic theory that financial markets accurately reflect a stock's underlying value was all but unassailable. But lately, the view that investors can fundamentally change a market's course through irrational decisions has been moving into the mainstream.
With the exuberance of the high-tech stock bubble and the crash of the late 1990s still fresh in investors' memories, adherents of the behaviorist school are finding it easier than ever to spread the belief that markets can be something less than efficient in immediately distilling new information and that investors, driven by emotion, can indeed lead markets awry. Some behaviorists would even assert that stock markets lead lives of their own, detached from economic growth and business profitability. A number of finance scholars and practitioners have argued that stock markets are not efficient—that is, that they don't necessarily reflect economic fundamentals.1 According to this point of view, significant and lasting deviations from the intrinsic value of a company's share price occur in market valuations.
The argument is more than academic. In the 1980s the rise of stock market index funds, which now hold some $1 trillion in assets, was caused in large part by the conviction among investors that efficient-market theories were valuable. And current debates in the United States and elsewhere about privatizing Social Security and other retirement systems may hinge on assumptions about how investors are likely to handle their retirement options.
We agree that behavioral finance offers some valuable insights—chief among them the idea that markets are not always right, since rational investors can't always correct for mispricing by irrational ones. But for managers, the critical question is how often these deviations arise and whether they are so frequent and significant that they should affect the process of financial decision making. In fact, significant deviations from intrinsic value are rare, and markets usually revert rapidly to share prices commensurate with economic fundamentals. Therefore, managers should continue to use the tried-and-true analysis of a company's discounted cash flow to make their valuation decisions.
When markets deviate
Behavioral-finance theory holds that markets might fail to reflect economic fundamentals under three conditions. When all three apply, the theory predicts that pricing biases in financial markets can be both significant and persistent.
Irrational behavior. Investors behave irrationally when they don't correctly process all the available information while forming their expectations of a company's future performance. Some investors, for example, attach too much importance to recent events and results, an error that leads them to overprice companies with strong recent performance. Others are excessively conservative and underprice stocks of companies that have released positive news.
Systematic patterns of behavior. Even if individual investors decided to buy or sell without consulting economic fundamentals, the impact on share prices would still be limited. Only when their irrational behavior is also systematic (that is, when large groups of investors share particular patterns of behavior) should persistent price deviations occur. Hence behavioral-finance theory argues that patterns of overconfidence, overreaction, and overrepresentation are common to many investors and that such groups can be large enough to prevent a company's share price from reflecting underlying economic fundamentals—at least for some stocks, some of the time.
Limits to arbitrage in financial markets. When investors assume that a company's recent strong performance alone is an indication of future performance, they may start bidding for shares and drive up the price. Some investors might expect a company that surprises the market in one quarter to go on exceeding expectations. As long as enough other investors notice this myopic overpricing and respond by taking short positions, the share price will fall in line with its underlying indicators.
This sort of arbitrage doesn't always occur, however. In practice, the costs, complexity, and risks involved in setting up a short position can be too high for individual investors. If, for example, the share price doesn't return to its fundamental value while they can still hold on to a short position—the so-called noise-trader risk—they may have to sell their holdings at a loss.
Momentum and other matters
Two well-known patterns of stock market deviations have received considerable attention in academic studies during the past decade: long-term reversals in share prices and short-term momentum.
First, consider the phenomenon of reversal—high-performing stocks of the past few years typically become low-performing stocks of the next few. Behavioral finance argues that this effect is caused by an overreaction on the part of investors: when they put too much weight on a company's recent performance, the share price becomes inflated. As additional information becomes available, investors adjust their expectations and a reversal occurs. The same behavior could explain low returns after an initial public offering (IPO), seasoned offerings, a new listing, and so on. Presumably, such companies had a history of strong performance, which was why they went public in the first place.
Momentum, on the other hand, occurs when positive returns for stocks over the past few months are followed by several more months of positive returns. Behavioral-finance theory suggests that this trend results from systematic underreaction: overconservative investors underestimate the true impact of earnings, divestitures, and share repurchases, for example, so stock prices don't instantaneously react to good or bad news.
But academics are still debating whether irrational investors alone can be blamed for the long-term-reversal and short-term-momentum patterns in returns. Some believe that long-term reversals result merely from incorrect measurements of a stock's risk premium, because investors ignore the risks associated with a company's size and market-to-capital ratio.2 These statistics could be a proxy for liquidity and distress risk.
Similarly, irrational investors don't necessarily drive short-term momentum in share price returns. Profits from these patterns are relatively limited after transaction costs have been deducted. Thus, small momentum biases could exist even if all investors were rational.
Furthermore, behavioral finance still cannot explain why investors overreact under some conditions (such as IPOs) and underreact in others (such as earnings announcements). Since there is no systematic way to predict how markets will respond, some have concluded that this is a further indication of their accuracy.3
Persistent mispricing in carve-outs and dual-listed companies
Two well-documented types of market deviation—the mispricing of carve-outs and of dual-listed companies—are used to support behavioral-finance theory. The classic example is the pricing of 3Com and Palm after the latter's carve-out in March 2000.
Two types of market deviation—the mispricing of carve-outs and of dual-listed companies—are used to support behavioral-finance theory
In anticipation of a full spin-off within nine months, 3Com floated 5 percent of its Palm subsidiary. Almost immediately, Palm's market capitalization was higher than the entire market value of 3Com, implying that 3Com's other businesses had a negative value. Given the size and profitability of the rest of 3Com's businesses, this result would clearly indicate mispricing. Why did rational investors fail to exploit the anomaly by going short on Palm's shares and long on 3Com's? The reason was that the number of available Palm shares was extremely small after the carve-out: 3Com still held 95 percent of them. As a result, it was extremely difficult to establish a short position, which would have required borrowing shares from a Palm shareholder.
During the months following the carve-out, the mispricing gradually became less pronounced as the supply of shares through short sales increased steadily. Yet while many investors and analysts knew about the price difference, it persisted for two months—until the Internal Revenue Service formally approved the carve-out's tax-free status in early May 2002. At that point, a significant part of the uncertainty around the spin-off was removed and the price discrepancy disappeared. This correction suggests that at least part of the mispricing was caused by the risk that the spin-off wouldn't occur.
Additional cases of mispricing between parent companies and their carved-out subsidiaries are well documented.4 In general, these cases involve difficulties setting up short positions to exploit the price differences, which persist until the spin-off takes place or is abandoned. In all cases, the mispricing was corrected within several months.
A second classic example of investors deviating from fundamentals is the price disparity between the shares of the same company traded on two different exchanges. Consider the case of Royal Dutch Petroleum and "Shell" Transport and Trading, which are traded on the Amsterdam and London stock markets, respectively. Since these twin shares are entitled to a fixed 60-40 portion of the dividends of Royal Dutch/Shell, you would expect their share prices to remain in this fixed ratio.
Over long periods, however, they have not. In fact, prolonged periods of mispricing can be found for several similar twin-share structures, such as Unilever (Exhibit 1). This phenomenon occurs because large groups of investors prefer (and are prepared to pay a premium for) one of the twin shares. Rational investors typically do not take positions to exploit the opportunity for arbitrage.
Thus in the case of Royal Dutch/Shell, a price differential of as much as 30 percent has persisted at times. Why? The opportunity to arbitrage dual-listed stocks is actually quite unpredictable and potentially costly. Because of noise-trader risk, even a large gap between share prices is no guarantee that those prices will converge in the near term.
Does this indict the market for mispricing? We don't think so. In recent years, the price differences for Royal Dutch/Shell and other twin-share stocks have all become smaller. Furthermore, some of these share structures (and price differences) disappeared because the corporations formally merged, a development that underlines the significance of noise-trader risk: as soon as a formal date was set for definitive price convergence, arbitrageurs stepped in to correct any discrepancy. This pattern provides additional evidence that mispricing occurs only under special circumstances—and is by no means a common or long-lasting phenomenon.
Markets and fundamentals: The bubble of the 1990s
Do markets reflect economic fundamentals? We believe so. Long-term returns on capital and growth have been remarkably consistent for the past 35 years, in spite of some deep recessions and periods of very strong economic growth. The median return on equity for all US companies has been a very stable 12 to 15 percent, and long-term GDP growth for the US economy in real terms has been about 3 percent a year since 1945.5 We also estimate that the inflation-adjusted cost of equity since 1965 has been fairly stable, at about 7 percent.6
We used this information to estimate the intrinsic P/E ratios for the US and UK stock markets and then compared them with the actual values.7 This analysis has led us to three important conclusions. The first is that US and UK stock markets, by and large, have been fairly priced, hovering near their intrinsic P/E ratios. This figure was typically around 15, with the exception of the high-inflation years of the late 1970s and early 1980s, when it was closer to 10 (Exhibit 2).
Second, the late 1970s and late 1990s produced significant deviations from intrinsic valuations. In the late 1970s, when investors were obsessed with high short-term inflation rates, the market was probably undervalued; long-term real GDP growth and returns on equity indicate that it shouldn't have bottomed out at P/E levels of around 7. The other well-known deviation occurred in the late 1990s, when the market reached a P/E ratio of around 30—a level that couldn't be justified by 3 percent long-term real GDP growth or by 13 percent returns on book equity.
Third, when such deviations occurred, the stock market returned to its intrinsic-valuation level within about three years. Thus, although valuations have been wrong from time to time—even for the stock market as a whole—eventually they have fallen back in line with economic fundamentals.
Focus on intrinsic value
What are the implications for corporate managers? Paradoxically, we believe that such market deviations make it even more important for the executives of a company to understand the intrinsic value of its shares. This knowledge allows it to exploit any deviations, if and when they occur, to time the implementation of strategic decisions more successfully. Here are some examples of how corporate managers can take advantage of market deviations.
Issuing additional share capital when the stock market attaches too high a value to the company's shares relative to their intrinsic value. Repurchasing shares when the market under-prices them relative to their intrinsic value
Paying for acquisitions with shares instead of cash when the market overprices them relative to their intrinsic value
Divesting particular businesses at times when trading and transaction multiples are higher than can be justified by underlying fundamentals.
Bear two things in mind. First, we don't recommend that companies base decisions to issue or repurchase their shares, to divest or acquire businesses, or to settle transactions with cash or shares solely on an assumed difference between the market and intrinsic value of their shares. Instead, these decisions must be grounded in a strong business strategy driven by the goal of creating shareholder value. Market deviations are more relevant as tactical considerations when companies time and execute such decisions—for example, when to issue additional capital or how to pay for a particular transaction.
Second, managers should be wary of analyses claiming to highlight market deviations. Most of the alleged cases that we have come across in our client experience proved to be insignificant or even nonexistent, so the evidence should be compelling. Furthermore, the deviations should be significant in both size and duration, given the capital and time needed to take advantage of the types of opportunities listed previously.
Provided that a company's share price eventually returns to its intrinsic value in the long run, managers would benefit from using a discounted-cash-flow approach for strategic decisions. What should matter is the long-term behavior of the share price of a company, not whether it is undervalued by 5 or 10 percent at any given time. For strategic business decisions, the evidence strongly suggests that the market reflects intrinsic value.
About the Authors
Marc Goedhart is an associate principal in McKinsey's Amsterdam office, and Tim Koller is a principal in the New York office. David Wessels, an alumnus of the New York office, is an adjunct professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. This article is adapted from Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, and David Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, fourth edition, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2005.
Notes
1For an overview of behavioral finance, see Jay R. Ritter, "Behavioral finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 2003, Volume 11, Number 4, pp. 429–37; and Nicholas Barberis and Richard H. Thaler, "A survey of behavioral finance," in Handbook of the Economics of Finance: Financial Markets and Asset Pricing, G. M. Constantinides et al. (eds.), New York: Elsevier North-Holland, 2003, pp. 1054–123.
2Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French, "Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies," Journal of Finance, 1996, Volume 51, Number 1, pp. 55–84.
3Eugene F. Fama, "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, 1998, Volume 49, Number 3, pp. 283–306.
4Owen A. Lamont and Richard H. Thaler, "Can the market add and subtract? Mispricing in tech stock carve-outs," Journal of Political Economy, 2003, Volume 111, Number 2, pp. 227–68; and Mark L. Mitchell, Todd C. Pulvino, and Erik Stafford, "Limited arbitrage in equity markets," Journal of Finance, 2002, Volume 57, Number 2, pp. 551–84.
5US corporate earnings as a percentage of GDP have been remarkably constant over the past 35 years, at around 6 percent.
6Marc H. Goedhart, Timothy M. Koller, and Zane D. Williams, "The real cost of equity," McKinsey on Finance, Number 5, Autumn 2002, pp. 11–5.
7Marc H. Goedhart, Timothy M. Koller, and Zane D. Williams, "Living with lower market expectations," McKinsey on Finance, Number 8, Summer 2003, pp. 7–11.
Speed, I went to Pink Sheets. I see the filling, but can't access it (althought all the other fillings work):
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/filings.jsp?symbol=cirt
Mike
Speed (or anyone else):
Have you seen the "REGDEX" SEC filling of June 24-th? For some reason I can't access it. I keep getting this message: "The document you requested was not converted correctly."
Can anyone post the main content of the above here? Thanks,
Mike
***STAY AWAY from these multiple R/S offenders:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=3017
Stay away from MMIC. CEO is a super crook. As you see it makes the list for zero value, good for nothing stocks that have NO other business model but emitting more and more shares, followed by multiple R/S's. Above is a partial list of most known STAY AWAY from, FAKES list. Save the list, and do NOT ever buy any of the those things (from GWAD - the "CHAMPION" , to MMIC). In fact, never ever buy any stock that has a history of multiple R/S's.
Mike
Global Diversified Industries, Inc. Wholly Owned Subsidiary MBS Construction Posts Best Month Ever; Looking for New Location to Assist in Growth
PR Newswire - June 23, 2005 13:21
CHOWCHILLA, Calif., BUENA PARK, Calif., June 23, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Global Diversified Industries, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GDVI), focused on the modular building industry with emphasis on the education market, said today that its wholly owned subsidiary, MBS Construction, Inc., has posted its best month for revenues in its history and is searching for a larger facility than its current headquarters in Buena Park to take advantage of significant growth.
MBS Construction was founded in 1998 to be a full-service provider of construction services exclusively to the modular building industry. It was acquired by Global Diversified in 2003.
"We have also strengthened the administrative team at MBS Construction, adding an individual with more than 20 years experience in the construction sector to oversee administration and have installed a new software program that will assist greatly in cost control," said Global Diversified Industries Chairman and CEO Phil Hamilton. "We are very bullish on the future of this subsidiary and the value it will provide to Global Diversified and its shareholders," Hamilton said.
About Global Diversified Industries, Inc.
Global Diversified Industries, Inc. is a holding company with two wholly owned subsidiaries, Global Modular, Inc. and MBS Construction, Inc. Both are engaged in the modular construction marketplace with an emphasis on educational projects. They incorporate the latest in construction software, allowing them to better manage projects incorporating cost vs. profit ratios, construction and manufacturing schedules, purchasing, receiving and other facets of industrial management. The company's work is found in Northern and Southern California, with numerous projects on budget for school systems throughout the state.
This press release contains information that constitutes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any such forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any future results described within the forward-looking statements. Risk factors that could contribute to such differences include those matters more fully disclosed in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking information provided herein represents the Company's estimates as of the date of the press release, and subsequent events and developments may cause the Company's estimates to change. The Company specifically disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking information in the future. Therefore, this forward-looking information should not be relied upon as representing the Company's estimates of its future financial performance as of any date subsequent to the date of this press release.
Contact:
For investor information contact:
Paul Knopick
949-707-5365
pknopick@eandecommunications.com
SOURCE Global Diversified Industries, Inc.
Paul Knopick, +1-949-707-5365, pknopick@eandecommunications.com, for Global
Diversified Industries, Inc.
http://www.prnewswire.com
We got news! EOM
Mike
This is good news. Go MOBL, go! EOM
Mike
Contax, I appologize. I read again your post, and you are right. Truth is many people were talking about all these tons of shares that the Mgmt suposedly have sold, and I really didn't take a closer look at their claims until this weekend. Looking a bit closer, it turns out that the Mgmt. never actually sold any shares. The insiders selling issue (along with Cornell unorthodox handling of the shares), I believe were the two main reasons the stock's price was stalled for such a long time, despite the expected explosive revenue growth. With the two isuues put to rest, the price should start moving. Do you agree?
Mike
Another rotten, not EVEN Dead Sicko, or just another rotten day?
Mike
***Re: CIRT insiders selling demystified.
Let's see:
06/07/2005 SHAHER HAWATMEH
Chief Operating Officer 1,421,560 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $52,597.72
05/25/2005 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $40,000.00
05/10/2005 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $38,000.00
03/31/2005 RAED HAWATMEH
Affiliated Person 1,492 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $50.73
02/10/2005 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 200,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $7,020.00
02/09/2005 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 2,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $78,000.00
02/03/2005 TREVOR M SALIBA
Director 2,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $82,000.00
01/04/2005 RAED HAWATMEH
Director 1,391,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $47,294.00
06/17/2004 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $56,000.00
06/01/2004 TREVOR M SALIBA
Director 750,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $41,250.00
05/21/2004 RAED HAWATMEH
Director 3,039,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $194,496.00
04/29/2004 SHAHER HAWATMEH
Chief Operating Officer 3,100,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $244,900.00
04/12/2004 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 450,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $29,250.00
03/30/2004 RAED HAWATMEH
Director 851,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $61,272.00
03/15/2004 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 300,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $19,200.00
03/11/2004 TREVOR M SALIBA
Director 750,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $36,750.00
03/03/2004 RAED HAWATMEH
Director 665,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $19,285.00
02/12/2004 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 1,600,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $43,200.00
12/29/2003 TREVOR M SALIBA
Director 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $16,300.00
12/03/2003 IEHAB J HAWATMEH
Officer and Director 1,400,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $30,800.00
............................
............................
I went to 2001, and found NO evidence of any insiders selling.
Take as an example the CEO:
It turns out that 46,415,600 shares he had as of: 02/07/2002 is the same as the # of shares he has now. The value only changed:
$1,856,624.00 on 06/17/2005
$1,624,546.00 now
Let's see the CEO's Transactions since 1999:
05/25/2005 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $40,000.00
05/10/2005 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $38,000.00
02/10/2005 200,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $7,020.00
02/09/2005 2,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $78,000.00
06/17/2004 1,000,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $56,000.00
04/12/2004 450,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $29,250.00
03/15/2004 300,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $19,200.00
02/12/2004 1,600,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $43,200.00
12/03/2003 1,400,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $30,800.00
08/22/2003 1,730,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $19,030.00
07/16/2003 670,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $10,050.00
06/11/2003 100,000 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $3,400.00
05/22/2003 219,199 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $6,575.97
03/24/2003 644,124 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $18,679.59
01/30/2003 439,970 CIRT Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $14,519.10
02/07/2002 15,333,300 CIRT Open Market Purchase
Cost $613,332.00
01/18/2001 52,500 Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $32,812.50
10/12/1999 250,000 Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $1,687,500.00
I see NO sells. He bought 15,333,300 shares on Open Market Purchase at a $613,332.00 (or 0.04/share), on 02/07/02, but NEVER sold any shares.
I never realy look very carefuly at these transactions, and always relying on (and trusting) the posters talking about the tons of shares the insiders sold. I took the time to check it out more closely, and it turns out people (including the stock fund manager I was addressing my previous post to) have no idea what Form 144 means.
For your info:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/form144.asp
The time frame under which the shares can be sold (if I recall) is of only 2 monnth, after which the insider has to fill another Form 144. This explains why so many Form 144 were filled. From what I see, the insiders never sold any share at least since 2001 for which I did my digging (in which case they would have had to fill Form 4).
So, dear fellow investors, once the Insiders Selling Myth is now demystified, I strongly believe the PPS will start moving up soon, and with the explosion in revenue and China connection (see the Calbot Report), once it does this should be, IMO the envy of the peny stocks.
Mike
News on 10-K, 10-Q. New focus: Internet Media
Check out:
www.travelhotlink.com
IVGA's name is on the bottom
Hope 10-K comes out next week. That will be nice!
Mike
--------------------------
Source: Stock House
Posted By: dungstomp
Post Time: 6/15/05 13:36
I just received another e-mail from Mr. Forhan today informing me that they 'hope' to file their 10-K in 5 days from now and their 10-Q in 7 days following that. Maybe it's just another stalling tactic and maybe it's total BS but here it is for all of you to see along with an earlier correspondence. I am posting info when I can because I think we have all been disrespected as shareholders and I want you all to know you are not alone in wondering what the #ell is going on with this company. If they do actually file and get back to the OTCBB then I think we have a chance of at least cutting our losses. If we are very lucky the company might turn around with some good promotion and a better business model - that is if the principals are being honest with us shareholders and that in my opinion is a big IF! Good luck everyone.
June 15/05
Dave,
Hope to file 10K in 5 days and 10Q 7 days later.
Press releases will begin after IVGA is trading on OTCBB again.
Bill Forhan
CEO
May 30/05
Hi Bill, Are we getting any closer to filing earnings reports? If so when do you anticipate IVGA being re-listed on the OTCB? Thanks. Regards, D Shurvell
reply received May 31/05
Dave;
IVGA is late on filing 10K...our auditors will be completing this week.
We must also send in the 1st Qtr financials before we trade as an OTCBB company.
We will send in 10Q within 7 days of audited 10K.
IVGA will change its business model, focusing as an internet media company selling advertising space on www.travelhotlink.com
We will minimize losses in the 2nd quarter and focus on profits before year end.
Thanks for your support and wish you the Best of Luck
Bill Forhan
CEO
***Contax. Re: CIRT insiders selling demystified.
Have you seen any recent Form 4 filled? If not, there was NO insiders seling for a long time.
Take another look at the SEC fillings:
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/filings.jsp?symbol=CIRT
Since early 2004, the insiders NEVER sold any shares. You might have confused the S-8 (the only one since early 2004), with Form 4, that:
"Every director, officer or owner of more than ten percent of a class of equity securities registered under Section 12 of the '34 Act must file with the Commission a statement of ownership regarding such security. The initial filing is on Form 3 and changes are reported on Form 4. The Annual Statement of beneficial ownership of securities is on Form 5. The forms contain information on the reporting person's relationship to the company and on purchases and sales of such equity securities."
If anyone is not clear with the meaning of various SEC forms, here you are:
http://www.gsionline.com/support/formtypes.html
FYI, what you saw was a S-8 form filled around January 1-st.
For your benefit:
"The SEC's Streamlined S-8 Securities Registration Scheme, Demystified
I am often asked to explain and clarify the use of the SEC's streamlined registration process for securities on Form S-8 for compensation of employees and consultants. Without doubt, S-8 is a powerful tool: it empowers fully reporting companies to register shares quickly and easily--without automatic SEC examiner review. S-8 registration allows issuers to compensate employees and some outside consultants with registered shares in lieu of cash. Issuers and their management remain confused, however, by the types of services for which S-8 compensation can be issued. Actually, the SEC's pronouncements on S-8-set forth in a recent Final Rule Release (see below for link)-are as clear as day."
PS: If you saw anywhere that the insiders sold ANY shares recently, please post a site.
Regards,
Mike
Got tired of wating @0.0009, so I changed it to 0.001. Got already partially filled:
"For your order to buy 2000000 shares of IVGA at 0.001 limit, good through the end of next month:
You bought 750000 shares of IVGA at $0.001 on 06/17/2005.
This is a notification of a partial fill."
Shall see if I get the rest next week, then I'm ready for some good news.
Mike
Cabot China Investor Report
Special Bulletin - June 7, 2005
Extract, from the Cabot report I just received via Forbes. Take it for what it's worth. And don't shoot the messanger.
Mike
--------------------------------
Dear Investor,
I don't know how much you have invested in China stocks, but I do know this: The world's largest nation is about to shock the entire investing world in a way that simply cannot be imagined.
If you fail to reposition your assets now, you not only could lose your shirt in one of the greatest stock shifts the world has ever seen...
...But also MISS OUT on what will ultimately become the GREATEST wealth building opportunity of the next five years.
What Nobody Is Telling You
Despite all the saber rattling with Taiwan you hear coming out of China, there's no way in the world China's going to put at risk the trillions of dollars of investment money that's been flooding that nation for years.
It can't.
As the world's largest manufacturing machine, responsible for making over half the entire world's cell phones, video games, TVs, home electronics, shoes, toys -you name it, the country is woefully dependent on foreign investing to keep its endless supply of laborers working.
Any disruption in the supply of capital would only shoot the country's economic growth in the foot, seriously setting back the major advances the central government has planned for the years ahead.
You don't have to be a diplomat to realize this.
You need only consider how much political capital China has invested in grabbing the 2008 Olympics, and you'll know exactly what I mean.
So, please, if you want to REAP FUTURE PROFITS, then you must know that everything you're hearing out of China is really to lay the foundation for more growth and profits. And not for political purposes.
Believe me, when the rhetoric dies down, Chinese stocks are going to explode. If you don't stake your claim now, you will truly miss out on one of the greatest growth opportunities you'll ever see in your investing life.
What You Must Know Now to Protect Yourself and Profit
First, let me say that my whole objective in sending you this email alert is to help you understand clearly the massive profit opportunity China represents to investors.
Tragically, most investors have no clue about the massive growth that's going on in China now. How the country is in the midst of a massive infrastructure boom, sucking up the world's raw materials at a record pace. Or how it's on track to become the world's greatest consumer nation--double that of the US.
I'm not just talking about consuming oil, mind you, which has been making front page news. I'm talking about consuming nearly all the raw materials the country needs to catapult itself into the 21st century, including steel, copper, concrete, and electricity, just to name a few.
But that's only on the manufacturing side...
There's another side to this growth story as well that investors have no idea about.
You see, as a result of the explosion in manufacturing, Chinese incomes and savings have been exploding as well, fueling an unquestionable thirst for the same consumer items we have come to know and love: TVs, cars, cell phones, washers, dryers, etc.
You need only visit and see the boom first hand: New construction is everywhere. From apartment buildings to office complexes. Not to mention the thousands of shiny new BMWs, Mercedes, and other cars you see flooding the streets.
Do you realize what this means?
The growth in China is about to fuel a wealth boom the likes of which the world has never seen before. A boom that will make even the American bull market of the 1990s look like chump change compared to what is in store across the Pacific Ocean.
When the word gets out, my friend, you're going to see a number of select Chinese stocks explode like fireworks on the Fourth of July, handing investors profits of better than $10 to $1 almost overnight.
Which is why I'm telling you...
If You Miss Out On This Wealth Boom You Will Be Kicking Yourself for Years !
Look - I don't know how you have your portfolio positioned, but I do know this:
With oil prices rising, inflation heating up, and interest rates expected to rise again, US markets will continue to slide sideways. Investors expecting a big rise in US stocks will be in for a rude awakening.
If you want to make serious money in the months and years ahead -and avoid making the dangerous and costly mistakes others will make - you must take a position, even a small one, in fast-growing Chinese stocks. When you do, you could be looking at the kind of Microsoft-like 10,000% gains of the 1990s.