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Marcos... in my mind this whole move in the patch rests on Saddam shoulders-- oil and gold are moving together, unless of course somebody does something silly like sue JPM or Barrick.
lol!
Regards,
Michael
...this post applies to you too...
#msg-630090
Regards,
Michael
Hey tf... welcome aboard nice to see some new faces.
Regards,
Michael
Kastel... Purcell is the only oil patch stock left in my portfolio-- sold the works starting with Impact Energy on Monday. I expect PEL to play catch-up in one-heck-of-a hurry, it's not like they're exploring for gold. <vbg> BTW, I'm bearish on the patch-- big pullback today in the OSX, despite the crap going on in Venezuela, so once they get this thing resolved we'll see a big correction. Iraq bombed to smithereens? Who cares... they contribute squat to the worlds oil production as it is-- taking them off-line completely is insignificant.
The top is in...
...as for the yeller dawg? I'll be f**ked if I know... I set a limit stop loss on Kinross this morning at $3.40 when it was at $3.50 -- I'll be damned if I didn't leave my office for a hour or so, only to come back and see the trip was tripped and Kinross was off to the races.
Loaded up heavy at the close on a lagging Wheaton River Minerals-- if I made a mistake, it's a very liquid stock, it's a mistake that's undoable.
Regards,
Michael
Sold Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-TSX) @ $45.25
Sold Edge Petroleum (EPEX) @ $4.10
Bought Labopharm (DDS-TSX) @ $3.07
Sold Kinross (K-TSX) @ $3.40
yeah, I kinda feel bad for those folks who sold at $333 to protect profits because the commercials had dramatically increased their short positions-- and we all know that they're never wrong.
Right?
...long and loving it...
Regards,
Michael
g... I've played with it a bit more-- and I'm thinking I'm probably incorrect by thinking that the virus scanner didn't fully un-install. That little icon which happens to resemble an ambulance says it's the "VAIO Support Agent" when I hover my cursor over it. What tricked into thinking it was part of the scanner was that it wanted me to update the virus profiles. Anyway... sorry for the trouble and thanks for the responses.
Regards,
Michael
yeah... you've surmised correctly-- XP, icon at the right-hand bottom corner and uninstalled from the control panel.
I'll contact the software maker about this little snafu.
Regards,
Michael
...a question... I just bought a Sony Vaio that came bundled with PC-illin virus software. I already have a virus scanner of another brand so I removed it. Unfortunately, it left an icon in the "notification area" of my menu bar.
So anyway, I’m left with a de-installation that’s incomplete and I would love to rid myself of this nuisance-- any help on this matter would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks in advance
Regards
Michael
yeah... I read the PR earlier today:
Revenue loss resulting from this temporary shutdown and cost of repairs to the damaged turbine will be covered by Nordex in accordance with their 5-year warranty on these 20 turbines. Therefore, no impact on revenues or earnings is anticipated.
Good for the NG story...
BTW, if I didn't think the economy was going to fall flat on it's face, this stock would be a buy from here... it's just that I think the best upside is in the mining sector.
Regards,
Michael
...see the volume on Minefinders? Music to my ears... methinks silver is the big surprise, a surprise to the upside. Just look at a CDE chart-- you'll understand what I'm saying.
...just be weary of my enthusiasm... :)
Regards,
Michael
Well then get back in!!! I'm super bullish on silver-- get back into something. Just think, the stocks moved wildly without a big move in the commodity.
Regards,
Michael
P.S. -- I'll give you a proper answer on BGI later today.
Inco says nickel supplies strained until 2006
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/12/13/rtr823253.html
Western Copper Holdings Advises of Share Purchase by Prudent Bear Funds Inc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/021213/0dd871dee366dccacd2e6757f8b8a66d_1.html
...hiring Tellier to head Bombardier certainly doesn't hurt-- I'm getting the impression the market likes the new addition because it adds even more independence from the family.
...as for Nortel? I really don't have any comment in regards to that... lol!
...as for the CPP-- please keep me filled in.
Thanks,
Michael
Bombardier is up 12% and Nortel is up 6% -- I now find myself talking about junior gold miners on Friday the 13th.
............
Kastel... I've been busy looking something that isn't going to do a 20% gap-up this morning. You should check out Claude Resources-- it's gonna fly today. I don't have a position, very doubtful I'll ever be able to afford to play this one again. :)
You might want to look at gold explorers that are focused on the State of Alaska-- lots of press surrounding Placer and Novagold. Take a look at Freegold Ventures (ITF-TSX) and Northern Dynasty (NDM-TSXV)
Regards,
Michael
Gold stocks showing hefty valuations after gold pop
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5GS4BB
Friday the 13th.
They say if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all. But since I lost money playing this speculation I feel it's my right to let the verbal venom fly.
...about ASS, uh-oh I mean AAS, good of you to start this thread in the free zone and besides since AAS made an ASS out of Albert Matter it's probably a good thing that NGT is hiding out in obscurity. The fact is I used to own NGT; it's just that I have a huge distaste for corporate incompetence and massive share dilution. I'm out-- until this mess is cleaned up, preferably by a stronger player.
Good luck with this one and don't average down!
Regards,
Michael
Yeah, agreed... I'm trying to be a little more cautious (I have more money now to worry about) especially towards the oil patch. This morning was weird, the Venezuelan issue seemed to be resolved, at least for now, yet Petro Canada hit a new 52 week high? I figured lower oil prices translates into a market rally, every darned time. We did not get that this A.M.
...and Kitco this morning?
Kitco threw me totally off-- by the flat-line performance and the subsequent dive...all that bad data...silly me. Ahem!!! The only advice I have to anyone wanting to invest in this kind of environment is not to be too proud and use a stop-loss. Sheeshhhh!!!
Still amazed at this move...although I always knew it would happen like this, it's nice that I had a good position in the sector. I GOT LUCKY!!!
...about that Jim Sinclair fella-- he called it!
Regards,
Michael
#196 - Stocks Will Be 41% Lower in 5 Years
The Investment U E-Letter
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
* * * * * * *
Stocks Will Be 41% Lower in 5 Years
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
President, Investment U
"It is not natural for us to learn from history. Children will cease to touch a burning stove only when they are themselves burned; no possible warning by others can lead to developing the smallest form of cautiousness." -- N.M. Taleb in Fooled by Randomness
Will the stock market be up or down five years from now?
Van Tharp asked people to write down their answer to this question at an investing seminar we held together this past weekend.
The responses amazed me. In a packed house, all attendees but one said the market would be higher in five years.
If investors were rational beings, with any sense of history, the numbers should be just the opposite. To show you what I mean, I'll offer up what may be the most rational, history-backed answer...
The Market Will Be 41% Lower Five Years From Today
Since we have no concrete knowledge of the future, the safest guess for five years from now may be that the market will be in line with its historical values. Of course the market may be substantially higher than history would suggest... or substantially lower.
I came up with the following figure - 41% lower - by looking at the three most time-tested measures of valuation: the price-to- earnings (P/E) ratio, the price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Over history, the average value of these has been 16, 2, and 1, respectively. (I'm actually being a little generous, here, so I can't be accused of being a bear or fudging any numbers.)
All I could assume was that these numbers would be roughly in line with history in five years time. In that same spirit of history, I assumed that sales, earnings and book values will all increase by 6% a year for the next five years, again, (very) roughly in line with historical averages. Based on that, the S&P 500 would be at 530 in five years - or 41% below its current value of 900.
Do You Have to Burn Your Hand on the Stove to Believe?
So what should we make of this? I think hedge-fund manager N.M. Taleb hit the nail on the head in his book. He basically said that until investors have personally burned themselves on the stove, they won't believe they can get burned. Taleb explains...
"All of my colleagues whom I have known to denigrate history blew up spectacularly. I have noticed plenty of analogies between those who blew up in the crash of 1987, the Japan meltdown of 1990, the bond market debacle of 1994, Russia in 1998, and in buying Nasdaq stocks in 2000... They were all unable to accept that the experience of others was out there, in the open, freely available to all, with books detailing crashes in every bookstore. Aside from these generalized systemic blow ups, I have seen hundreds of options traders forced to leave the business after blowing up in a stupid manner, in spite of warnings by the veterans, similar to a child's touching the stove."
In short, a room full of investors didn't think the market would be lower in five years because of their historical experience - it's never happened to them. Put simply, they've never burned themselves on this particular stove.
However, many U.S. investors throughout history have been thoroughly burned on this stove many times. Twice in the 20th century (after 1929 and after the late 1960s), it would have taken you over 25 YEARS to break even in stocks, when you account for inflation. What's worse, stocks today are still more expensive than they were in either 1929 or the late 1960s, even after they've fallen in recent years.
In the 19th century, forget about it - there was a 50-year stretch AND an 18-year stretch where you'd have done nothing but lose money in stocks (and that doesn't account for inflation). In what is no doubt a surprise to most investors, the stock- market index's compound annual gain for the 19th century was 0.80% - less than one percent per year (that is the gain of the index, which does not include dividends).
My friend, I've been studying this particular "stove" my whole career. It's my job to know how it works, through and through. I've crunched more historical numbers than anyone I know. So if my life's work is worth anything to you, it's that I can surely tell you if the stove is hot.
The stove is hot right now.
Are you going to choose to ignore history, and get burned like everyone else? Or are you going to accept that someone who's spent his entire career answering this question knows what he's talking about, and plan accordingly?
The choice is yours...
I figured it was a verb, but no-- your six year old had it right. :)
Regards
Michael
...just checking out the front page of the WSJ, and surprise surprise, they don't mention gold-- even once???
Yeah... in case you haven't noticed, I've changed my style since my departure from SI-- no more baby caps...you need a message board guru handy to want to hold these kind of things. Besides, I can't hear the music because of the lack of volume-- trading stocks is like conducting a symphony.
...mostly classical
Regards,
Michael
...about EPEX, your timing was superb-- please fill me in on your technique. :) anyway, be sure to take another look at #msg-599256
BTW, it's totally nuts that a natural gas stock just happened to be my best performing stock today-- Kinross just barely got past Impact Energy. Yeah, hell-of-a-day!!!
Regards,
Michael........
Well it is anecdotal...and who knows maybe it's because of the spread between fed rates, and card rates that have people turned off this kind of debt instrument.
Regards,
Michael
Hi Marcos... yeah, me and my predictions. lol! Well, I'm the dude that's been selling off my positions in both Sultan Minerals (last week) and finally got rid of the rest of Birim Goldfields today-- I decided it was time to right them off and double up on what going up in my portfolio.
Averaged up on Wheaton River Minerals-- my only fear with WRM is that their going to overpay for Minefinders ... just a speculation. :)
Anyway...
Michael
sold ATI Technologies (ATY-TSX) @ $10.95
...it could be a situation where a weak dollar is good for American exports and stocks rise on the potential of earnings growth. -- Volatility shouldn't be hung on the PoG it rests on the neck of the financial markets.
Regards,
Michael
...could be for real? Kinross breaking out strongly...
Hi Len... I hear Tusk is a pretty good spec...
Regards,
Michael
Edge Petroleum Provides Update on Operations and Announces 2003 Capital Program
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021212/dath016_1.html
...sorry, should of been more specific... Edmonton Alberta, the province is still booming like a bastard-- housing starts at a record high with vacancy rates at a record low.
-
-
I think it was visa the other day that stated business is down from last year. A friend that works P/T at Sears tells me more and more people are using cash and debit cards as opposed to credit cards. The Fed is now having problems giving away credit-- the sales data for next month will certainly be entertaining.
Regards,
Michael
Edmonton...
-
...even after the restoration of oil shipments from Venezuela, heavy oil stocks like PetroCan (new 52 week high) and Canadian Natural Resources are edging up.
Regards,
Michael
thanks... I double checked with INO