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I don’t believe in that. It would ultimately be the failure of the management of the small company even if I were to agree to your hypothesis. Say if Merck was manipulating because it was worried about the impact on its drug, why wouldn’t the likes of BMS, Gilead, or Pfizer come in and strike a deal with NWBO?
Pfizer didn’t kill Moderna but it decided to partner with BioNTech for the COVID vaccine. Merck didn’t kill Moderna or BioNTech but worked on an oral drug for COVID and so on…..that’s how it works!
Agreed. I have been living and breathing this world in the neurology medical device space for 20 years. These reimbursement challenges and dynamics are fairly similar in medical device space. Although pharma is even worse!
Also, have couple of very close college friends at big pharmas like Roche & AstraZeneca in top management positions.
Just to be clear I don’t question the manipulation by MMs and hedge funds. That’s clear, but that too I believe is exaggerated to some extent by many. However, involving BP in the mix is insane. Those are just lame excuses to try to strike an emotional chord with retail.
No one is questioning UK, EU, and Canada approvals. But time is not on our side as we will get diluted like hell before the reimbursements come through in these regions. As a result, the SP will continue to drop and the ramp up in revenue will be much slower than what everyone here expects this year and next.
US is the most important market because it’s almost the same size of all 3 regions combined and typically have higher pricing power. There is no guidance on that (BLA). Anyway, I don’t see any reimbursements coming through this year except UK, and that too if we are lucky!
FDA approval may happen at some point in the second half of 2024, but Tissue agnostic ain’t happening. So stop feeding that BS! It wouldn’t be surprising if NWBO management has been lying to us all along and there was no intention to apply to FDA until the ph 2 combo results are out in early 2024.
BS. If one BP was manipulating, others will come in and beat them to the punch, provided it’s a strategic fit and they see the real value. That’s the beauty of competition! All excuses and diversion tactics for lack of interest and investor support!
It’s also possible that the uplist consultants will make their retainer and ultimately be let go, just like the UK PR firm!
No acquiring company would pay more than 2-3 X of the SP. So the question is how do they get to $5-7 before acquisition? There is no buying support from big investors. If TLD or JAMA or MIA didn’t do it, why would it be any different with MAA? Also, there would be no reason to issue 250M additional C shares if buyout was happening this year. You can continue to dream on, but all indications are buyout ain’t happening anytime soon. Certainly not at UK approvals!
Trying to understand why things will change when it didn’t on MIA or TLD or JAMA?
They will still have the excuse of being concerned about US regulators for not going overboard with promotions and stuff in the US. ;)
If you see 70-80 cents for a few days as higher price then sure…but likely to retrace all the gains in a few weeks!
$15M in annual revenue this year won’t move the needle for a company that is already valued at $700M. Folks will in fact be disappointed when the uptick in revenue is slow.
LOL. There will be no squeeze. JAMA publication didn’t do it. TLD didn’t either. And MIA last week was perceived as meh. In fact, we’ve moved in reverse. Shorts and market makers are in control. Even if there are so called naked shares, the manipulators will not cover for months/years because they know the management is sluggish and will fumble along the way! ;)
It’s available on specials for anyone that wants it. Without reimbursements in place, the demand will be fairly insignificant. You see those gofundme requests? Most folks don’t have $300k saved, unfortunately.
We will see the same reaction as MIA to the MAA, unfortunately! UK is only 5% of the global oncology market. More importantly, the market doesn’t trust this management to execute aggressively and therefore drive consistent shareholder value.
When cost averaging up from retail doesn’t improve the stock price I don’t know what will. ;) Only a big stake by a credible investor at 2 to 3X our current share price will bring the sustained interest we need. FDA PDUFA date is the only other catalyst capable of a dramatic move. Dead money otherwise….
I agree. They are just too unorganized, inexperienced, and do not possess the energy and charisma of a company that is building the next big thing. No buzz around our technology. Look at BioNTech and Moderna with their CEOs and executives building excitement about their vaccine in cancer applications and combo treatment when they haven’t even completed a single successful early stage trial yet. If NWBO can not do this, they should bring in experienced and dynamic executives who can bring more visibility, media attention, and credible investors. Enough excuses about OTC, shorts, etc!
The same thing was said when the stock was over a dollar when the TLD was released in November. What about those folks? Not a good deal, ehh?
And the trend suggests that the same cycle is likely to repeat itself when the MHRA approval comes through? We go reverse. And are then trading well under 50 cents. Folks buying then would even take 60 cents a few months later! But folks buying now, that wouldn’t be a good situation to be in.
Over the last 2 years since data lock, we have gone from $2 to 65 cents! Take your pick in terms of which direction we go post MHRA approval with this management.
Don’t be surprised if folks are happy with a $1 next year. The markets are bad and financing is difficult. Plus you got a golden opportunity to load up under 50 cents. ;)
Sell on the next rally is the message that is being conveyed. Be patient and load up again when it drops because the management is unable to control the shorts!
LOL, unfortunately I have to agree with you. They will likely be somewhere around $10M to 15M in annual revenue (and that too a best case scenario). They will not get to $100M next year either.
Agreed. But the existing warrant holders won’t support the change because they stop receiving favors and inside info from this management and therefore it becomes challenging to play the retail.
It doesn’t help if the share price goes below 50 cents and then gets to a dollar at MAA approval!
How about a firm share price - if it crosses $1.5 and sticks around for more than a month at above $1.5 at MHRA approval without any FDA progress? Thoughts?
Sure, once the revenue goes over $100-200M annual run rate…but that’s at least a couple of years away with this management running the show….
MAA submission and approval will not change anything. They need FDA BLA acceptance and PDUFA date. Or a big credible investor to come in at a significantly higher floor. Although it appears that they are having trouble getting a credible investor to agree to a significant premium over the current trading price at this time. So the waiting game and dilution under a dollar continues….
Oh f$$&!” Someone screwed up and there should be accountability to get us back on track.
Mediocrity is not frowned upon and therefore the question of accountability is never brought up. Basically, it’s a game where management has the support of big warrant holders and hence things will never change…. in lieu of that, these warrant holders receive inside info to better position themselves and make a killing at the expense of the retail (who get sucked with outrageous valuation claims by the social media army, upcoming milestones changing everything, etc) …
I think he should add a column showing share price at each of those milestones. I would assume shareholders would want to actually measure those milestones with return on investment or growth in SP. That graph over the last 30 month period will tell us how the market values them.
And despite these milestones, they have not been able to convince big investors to invest at $3-5B market cap…. Instead they have been selling C shares at about 700 million market cap. So these guys don’t think we are worth more than 60-70 cents at this time.
You mean MHRA or FDA or EU or all of them? If there is no FDA update, I wouldn’t be surprised if we are still trading at under a dollar upon MHRA approvals. Unless they bring in a big, credible investor. Again, it’s about kicking the can (until this and if that doesn’t stick then until that!)…..
Similar things were said about TLD, publication and MIA! ;)
LOL, just wait and watch. You will be surprised! FDA approvals, then when will NWBO get to $50M and $100 annual revenue (not many patients are signing up, having trouble with manufacturing, very costly to manufacture and scale, etc), so on and so forth….they will easily go on for couple of years while existing shareholders get diluted under a dollar!
I am not disagreeing about demand/supply management. That’s why I said the best they will be able to do this year is around 10-20 patients per months. Moreover, I just don’t think there will be enough demand this year to even get to those numbers without reimbursements in place. But you seem to agree here as well.
Even if they go via CDMO like CRL, it’s not a simple switch they can turn on and scale manufacturing. CRL will need to hire and train appropriate personnel, increase clean rooms, etc and all of this takes time and money.
Yup, the excuses, victim card play, and kicking the can will never stop. It’s been going on for almost a decade and built into their system. Hard to snap out of it!
If they already have a deal signed, pending milestones, it would be a waste of time now.
—Outside this, none of the reasons justify not doing it. But even this, you always need to have a plan B and C in business. What if the deal falls through given the amount of time the
milestones have taken or if the acquiring company has moved in another direction? Again, just reflects the attitude towards business.
DI and LG can certainly contribute in wordsmithing, etc. Also, hire a summer intern from UCLA or KCL alongside a website development/marketing consultant for a month or two.
Good question. I don’t know and they will never say it out loud! ;) They will probably say the facility is capable of producing X amount of vaccines per month and X number of frozen dose storage per month but will never provide any specifics around the readiness from a personnel standpoint to meet those numbers! Because those numbers are not going to be impressive to the investors at this time. It will take some investment and time to get there.
Even though they have made quite a few hires in the last 6-9 months, it’s reasonable to assume that they will need 5X more staff on the manufacturing tech side to get to 100 patient per month volume. I don’t think they will get to more than 10-20 patient per month volume this year. IMHO.
Maybe this is another reason for not spending money on an updated web site?
— you are too kind! It can be migrated to new urls extremely quickly (like migrating from dev sites to the main website). Just reflects their attitude towards things. It could have been done 2-3 years ago or even before. It’s really a few weeks of work with outside consultants and less than $50k in expenses! Importantly, they could have given LG, DI, and a few others some work to justify a bit of their outrageous comp. ;)
One of the key reasons why I don’t believe things will move as swiftly as folks continue to expect from this management.
Agreed, but I just don’t see a path to uplist this year! How will they get the SP to $4 and for it to stay there for a couple of months? Even if there is a spike it will be pulled down by the shorts in a few days or weeks.
The ongoing dilution will indeed result in slow downward movement of the SP. I think even the existing (big and savvy) investors are not buying more at these so called discounted prices because they know that it’s going to take a while!
If one or two of those guys bought additonal $10M worth of common shares then we would go back up above a $1….why aren’t they purchasing more if a significant upside was coming?
I don’t think any of this management crew will be around to see the finish of another trial. The company gets sold to the highest bidder in 2024 or 2025 at the max.
As suspected, MIA didn’t result in any meaningful increase in SP. I expect more of the same with MAA approval PR unless it’s accompanied by firm FDA guidance or update on BLA progress…Outside that, they will need a credible investor to take a stake at 2 to 3 X our current valuation. I don’t think we get back to $2 SP outside these scenarios.
While regulatory risk is fairly minimal at this stage, the biggest thing is the time premium. It’s going to take a while to scale manufacturing. Just imagine the investment they will need and the hiring they will need to do to get to even get to 100 patient per month manufacturing capability. That’s what the shorts are banking on and they won’t let up for some time.
I don’t think we will get beyond $15-20M in annual revenue this year. And that too would be a high bar to achieve. So I don’t know who would value a company 1000X top line revenue?
Well, I was hoping that one of those may come before MHRA approval! ;)
Either way, they will need a credible investor establishing a sizable position at a much higher floor to spark further interest and for buyout to make sense. Otherwise retail alone is not going to be able to push this beyond a certain point and have it stick for a few weeks at a stretch.
Always the next news! ;) As I have said, there will be no significant upside until one of these 2 conditions are met:
1) they bring a credible investor at a minimum of 2-3X our current share price.
2) FDA BLA acceptance.
MHRA will be perceived as meh, a bit similar to the price action today…which I expect we will give back in the next few weeks….
Yup, they need to provide some guidance on BLA in particular. Otherwise, markets will not take them seriously, as usual, and shorts will pounce on it….it will be a short term pump or even sell the news in the coming days….let’s see what they have up their sleeve!
LOL, they just make statements such as U.K. approval imminent 30 months ago! They have made such statements many times before. But that’s par for the course for this management.
Those are facts!
Are they trading on OTC? YES
Have they had compliance issues? YES
Has there been multiple down rounds? YES
Anyone in their team has experience with a successful BLA? NO
Has anyone in the management team run a commercial biotech organization with commercial annual revenue (say over $20M) ? NO
History of Fumbles? YES
You can try to spin however you want but there’s no hiding. ;)