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Great news this morning...this should move over .20 this week. GLTA!!
Bank credit worries takes steam from financials' rally
High-flying sector ricochets as analysts look to 2010, big investors take stake
Laura Mandaro
MARKETWATCH — 8 MINUTES AGO
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Conflicting views over lingering credit problems are whipsawing financial stocks, which have outpaced the broader market in the latest leg of the rally, potentially setting the sector up for a steeper fall even as some analysts see fresh reasons to buy beaten-down stocks.
On Friday, the sector slid 1.4%, after a gloomy analyst note about insurer Genworth Financial Corp.'s prospects gave investors a fresh reason to sell off some financial stocks along with the broader market pullback. Genworth (Symbol : GNW
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) lost 6.6%, the fourth-worse decliner on the S&P 500 .
But, in keeping with the back-and-forth nature of financial stocks in recent days, two regional banks - BB&T Corp. (Symbol : BBT
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) Corp. and Regions Financial (Symbol : RF
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) -- rallied sharply to clock in the best performance among large-cap stocks.
Regions jumped 8.6% after analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing the company's relative capital cushion, according to flyonthewall.com. See more analysts' actions on MarketWatch.
Against this turbulent backdrop, the broader S&P 500 financial sector -- as measured by the Financial Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund - has gained 27% since the recent surge in U.S. stocks got going July 10. That's compared to a 14% rally on the S&P 500.
Some investors and analysts say they're still worried that banks and other financial institutions could book more ugly losses from exposures to real estate and mortgage markets.
"I'd love to buy banks, but the problem is when you come off the biggest credit bubble in history," said Jeff Auxier, chief executive of $400 million Auxier Asset Management in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Mid-sized banks, for instance "look cheap but you don't know how much they need to shore up their balance sheets," he said.
Citigroup (Symbol : C
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) analyst Colin Devine on Friday cited "deteriorating fundamentals" for his decision to cut Genworth (Symbol : GNW
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) shares to sell from hold, saying a recent rally in shares pushed them to a level "where we no longer find them attractive given a very uncertain earnings outlook and capital position."
Keefe Bruyette & Woods analysts started the week off suggesting that the prior week's rally "is likely to fade as the economic rebound turns out to be modest and credit issues linger well into 2010 and beyond."
Even more damning, Miller Tabak analyst Thomas Mitchell said he expected many banks to report either near-zero or negative earnings per share next year, putting expected earnings at odds with current prices and prompting him to slash Zions Bancorp (Symbol : ZION
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). and Regions Financial Corp. (Symbol : RF
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) ratings to sell. Shares in Zions, a regional bank based in Salt Lake City, dropped 8.4% on Tuesday and, despite a recovery in recent days, are set to end the week 0.7% lower.
Day trader's paradise
Despite concerns by Mitchell and others, the sector has also staged big one-day recoveries on some days as investors took heart from signs of U.S. economic recovery and the disclosure that a well-known investor had bought up bank stocks.
Stocks in national banks such as Bank of America Corp. (Symbol : BAC
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) and mid-sized regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp (Symbol : FITB
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). , Zions and SunTrust Banks (Symbol : STI
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) bounced sharply higher Thursday after hedge fund manager John Paulson revealed his firm had added shares in several banks in the second quarter.
Some of these stocks have been favorites of investors, in part because they fell so heavily in the past year.
On Friday, Bank of America (Symbol : BAC
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) was one of the only two gainers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, rising 2%.
And brokerage analysts, despite some dissension about how credit will affect the companies' outlooks, have largely grown more optimistic
Analysts, on average, have raised their median price targets for Bank of America Corp. (Symbol : BAC
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), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. , Citigroup (Symbol : C
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) and Fifth Third since June 30, according to Thomson Reuters. They've cut them on Regions Financial (Symbol : RF
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), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (Symbol : MI
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) and Zions.
Limiting Friday's losses in financial stocks, BB&T Corp. (Symbol : BBT
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) shares jumped 9% after media reports said the bank is likely to take over struggling lender Colonial BancGroup (Symbol : CNB
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) , a deal that would be supported by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The bank regulator has been shutting down failing banks, liquidating some and brokering others' sales to stronger institutions.
With $26 billion in assets, Colonial would represent the largest bank failure of the year.
Friday's trading
On Friday, the benchmark U.S. stock indexes fell sharply, adding to early losses, after the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer sentiment made a surprise drop and fell short of economists' forecasts. Materials, energy and consumer discretionary sectors led declines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points, or 1.2%, to 9,282.4. The S&P 500 lost 12 points, or 1.2%, to 1,000. The Nasdaq Composite lost 29 points, or 1.5%, to 1,981.
"Today, the concept of 'less bad news is good news' is losing steam," said Richard Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants, which advises financial advisers.
The S&P 500 is set to end the week down 0.9%, the Dow industrials is headed for a 0.9% weekly loss and the Nasdaq is headed for a 1% weekly decline.
"I think the numbers indicated that people are generally optimistic but at the same time very cautious about their own spending habits," said Hughes of the consumer sentiment index.
Along with Genworth (Symbol : GNW
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), Etrade Financial Corp., real-estate firm ProLogis (Symbol : PLD
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) and regional bank Marshall & Ilsley (Symbol : MI
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) represented some of the biggest decliners on the S&P 500.
Ok with me....good consolidation today after such a big week. Next week it could easily be back to .20...GLTY
I think there may be a short position here, I just tried to buy more at the ask and they filled it at .087 instead of .089 after about 5 minutes? Comments?
XCHO...huge potential for dollar land..check out DD...current (.093) very low floater, much like COYN..GLTA
I use fidelity, but I only got a partial fill..:(
I can't even get any shares of XCHO today. I have a order in at the ask and it hasn't filled for almost 5 minutes...wtf?
I figure on Friday I'll be able to average down or sell out, either way I'm happy. Don't get me wrong, I'm surprised by today's action, but we all know the market can change quick. All of the financial stocks are oversold at this point and need a rest, so I'll make money on the way down and then buy back for the ride up....GLTY
Pull back is inevitable....just a little more time...:)
I think it's time to buy FAZ...markets due for a correction and chart is looking good. Picked up some at 28.21...GLTA
Should fill the gap between 1.30 and 1.35 soon...:)
Great day here today. Hopefully its a precursor to earnings tomorrow. GLTA
AHR now at 1.04...:)
We need Freddy's volume..:O
I researched 13 of AHR's peers and out of those 13, 7 beat earnings estimates this quarter. 1 missed estimates and the other 5 either haven't reported or I couldn't find the data on them. Cash flow may be down, but hopefully earnings will be up...GLTA
Any opinions on earnings on Tuesday? good/bad? I personally think they'll be better than last quarters, much like the rest of the market. A few of their peers have reported good earnings this quarter as well.
Buys coming in above the ask and they won't let it move. I have a feeling the short position here is high.
AHR breaks resistance here at .83 and we should clear $1 today...GL to the University..>:)
AHR makes it through $1...no resistance until $1.44. Keep on radar for earnings next Tuesday...GLTA
AHR...earnings release Tuesday...keep it on radar...GLTA
With earnings as good as last quarter this should hit $1.50 easy!! Come on AHR...we need more volume!!
The ask was at .81 earlier...had to up my bid. My order wasn't even showing. This is being held down for some reason?
I have an order in at .815 which is above the ask and it hasn't filled since the open of trading...WTF?
NEWS:
Anthracite Capital to Report Second Quarter 2009 Earnings on August 11
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Anthracite Capital, Inc. (NYSE:AHR) (the "Company" or "Anthracite") will report results for the second quarter of 2009 on Tuesday, August 11, 2009. A teleconference call for investors and analysts will be held at 9:00 a.m. (eastern time). Christopher A. Milner, Chief Executive Officer, Richard M. Shea, President and Chief Operating Officer, and James J. Lillis, Chief Financial Officer, will host the call. Anthracite’s second quarter earnings release will be available on the Company’s website, www.anthracitecapital.com, prior to the beginning of the teleconference call.
Teleconference Details
Members of the public who are interested in participating in Anthracite’s second quarter earnings teleconference should dial, from the U.S., (800) 374-0176, or from outside the U.S., (706) 679-4634, shortly before 9:00 a.m. and reference the Anthracite Teleconference Call (number 24015717). Please note that the teleconference call will be available for replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. on Tuesday, August 11, 2009, and ending at midnight on Tuesday, August 18, 2009. To access the replay, callers from the U.S. should dial (800) 642-1687 and callers from outside the U.S. should dial (706) 645-9291 and enter conference identification number 24015717.
About Anthracite
Anthracite Capital, Inc. is a specialty finance company focused on investments in high yield commercial real estate loans and related securities. Anthracite is externally managed by BlackRock Financial Management, Inc., which is a subsidiary of BlackRock, Inc. (“BlackRock”) (NYSE:BLK), one of the largest publicly traded investment management firms in the United States with approximately $1.373 trillion in global assets under management at June 30, 2009. BlackRock Realty Advisors, Inc., another subsidiary of BlackRock, provides real estate equity and other real estate-related products and services in a variety of strategies to meet the needs of institutional investors.
Usually CNBC is pretty accurate, but I don't think they have officially said.
Has the company announced the official earnings date?..CNBC says its Monday and other sources say Tuesday?...any thoughts?
My money will settle tomorrow and Monday, so if it stays around here, it's even better..:) I have a strong feeling earnings should kill the estimates of .04. Last quarter they hit .07 and with their investments they should do much better this quarter..IMO
Ok, I don't want it to go down any further!!
lol....ok, now its ready to sky rocket to $5...:)
Would like to see that gap from .90 to .85 fill. I hate having gaps in the chart, when I'm holding long term.
Good morning fellow "idiots", let's see if we can get into dollar land today..>GLTA!!
Well, it needs to stay down until Friday. Then I'll have more on Monday too..:) This is like a gift at this price or anything under $1...IMO...GLTY
Would be nice to close above $.90, RSI will be above 70 and MACD will be close to crossing the trend line, which sets us up well for the rest of the week. If not, I hope it goes down so I can buy a lot under .80...:)
I was hoping to have over 100k shares before it took off, since the stock was so undervalued, but I'll be happy with what I have. Always better to make money, instead of losing it.
AHR up 52% now...hope some joined the ride...GLTA
I have a lot of money settling and wanted to quadruple my position is all
Wait until Friday...PLEASEEEEEEEEEE!! Either way, I'm making money..>GL
Thats just my opinion. I'm not saying it will happen today, but eventually. I still love the stock and plan to buy back in later, just don't want to make the same mistake I did last run up and hold it all the way back down to 1.9. Arn't you in AHR too? That will be a fun ride, especially if the earnings are good...:)
Dang...AHR up 30% now...:)
Had to sell today. The chart has way too many gaps from the beginning of this run and I think they'll fill. Even the one from 1.91...GLTA