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I didn't say it was a bankruptcy, I said when this is released it will be analogous to a BK re-org, and the gerrymandering to get this released will be analogous to a bankruptcy plan.
You can jump up and down all you want but the fact is that the government is running the show and has been all along.
Since there is no opportunity to cash in with the status quo, the government will look for a way to reap further rewards. And the way to do that is with conversion to warrants, super warrants and commons. JPSs will likely be unaffected. And the reason why they will be unaffected is because it would bring about a new round of lawsuits.....just as converting the conservatorship to a receivership would do.
And of course this is political. Biden will want to cement some rules, which will be more lax than under a republican administration, so the time is really now.
I have an idea....I've been listening to the turds in the government. That's why I own millions in JPS. Furthermore, I have an extensive background in bankruptcies and a lot of what will happen to get this moving out of conservatorship is analogous to BK re-orgs. Treasury is stuck. If they want to reap any more profits they will have to voluntarily convert.
Coherently huh? Sometimes the obvious is in plain sight but you just don't want to hear it. I seriously doubt Treasury will let the lawsuits dictate the release from conservatorship. They have absolutely no upside right now to remain status quo. Voluntary conversion effectively moots all JPS related lawsuits and any direct claims issues can be settled or mooted for a little of nothing in the big picture.
You should read this again:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165220548
When the capital requirements are met, it will have been after the Seniors (some) are converted into commons and the warrants have been exercised. How much existing commons 'soars' from a point of maximum dilution is anyone's guess, but it won't be what you think it is. There will be voluntary conversion of the seniors by Treasury, followed by dilution, followed by issuance of new warrants in the post-ipo company and somewhere in there will be a reverse split.
There won't be any back dividends on non-cumulative preferreds. That's what 'non-cumulative' means.
But I'd be happy with face on my $25s or $50s. Or even a reasonable haircut.
A haircut of JPS doesn't bode well for commons though.
So whenever you bash JPS just remember you're basically zeroing commons.
That's reality.
JPS have 12-13x upside from here. Does anyone honestly think commons have that kind of upside? 18 bucks? really?
It's no use. Let him live in fantasy land.
I really don't care about your hypothetical because it's been happening for 13 years.
And your point is?
They didn't have to pay a dividend before they were taken over by the government.
And your point is?
Whatever point your are trying to make, just remember this one thing....commons are last in line for anything.
Remember AIG? The government loaned AIG (to fund bank bailouts) $182B and took 79.9% of AIG's equity. Sound familiar?
Treasury and the Fed made $23B profit combined over 5 years for the bailouts.
https://www.thebalance.com/aig-bailout-cost-timeline-bonuses-causes-effects-3305693
https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/tg1796.aspx
Who gets paid first is the most important thing. Right now, it's the government. You should ask yourself whether or not the government will decide they've stolen enough and is ready to put this back into the hands of private ownership.
5 years won't matter if the SPS liquidation preference keeps going up dollar for dollar of retained earnings.
The government has to make a choice. It's either defacto nationalization, i.e. the status quo, or they take a haircut on their SPS to release the GSEs from conservatorship, or lastly they don't take a haircut and this goes into receivership, which will result in a slew of new lawsuits because shareholders actually have some rights in receivership.
There's no need to. Thanks for zapping my post within seconds of me posting it....all it had to do with was the state of affairs as they are now and what they need to be in order for JPS or Commons to see a penny.
You should look up 'liquidation rights' for the JPS and liquidation rights for commons. Hint, you won't find any for commons.
I've been in the distressed investing game for well over a decade...as well as a lot of bankruptcy experience, so you can trash what I say if you want, but you're doing yourself a disservice.
Preferreds will see a return before commons, that's just how the law and contracts work.
Right now neither are in the money. I own $5M JPS.
Commons and warrants are aligned, in that they are the last to get paid.
Preferreds will see a payout before commons and there's no other way around it.
The question is, "what is the company worth". That is called the Enterprise Value.
All your other gibberish is just that, gibberish.
You need to learn what a waterfall analysis is, what priority means when it comes to payout, and what enterprise value means.
If you figure out EV, then you will know what the commons are worth.
EV is everything.
And you can bet your ass the government will take 79.9% of anything over and above the liquidation preferences of the seniors and juniors combined.
The seniors definitely aren't going away....that is until either they are paid in full via a public recapitalization or, if the Enterprise Value of FNMA is less than the liquidation preference of the seniors, then there will be some type of senior to common conversion (a portion of seniors to common).
Just like a Chapter 11 reorganization.
It all comes down to Enterprise Value.
You're right, for all intents and purposes, this is a bankruptcy.
Therefore, it would be prudent to determine the Enterprise Value of the company now.....so as to see where the waterfall takes us.
It's going to take a 9-10X multiple to get the junior preferreds in the money, imo.
And at make whole for the junior preferreds (face, not face plus interest because it ain't gonna happen) 79.9% will go to the government.
Mr. Mooppan's statement isn't gospel....if any of his opinions were, then you may as well pack your bags and write this off.
It will be the SC that decides a remedy, not Mr. Mooppan or Treasury.
If the SC says the NWS is subject to ratification, that's how it is. If Calabria gives Treasury the middle finger, that's also how it is.
If Calabria says NWS is water under the bridge, that's the other side of this equation.
Because Treasury's signing on the NWS was constitutional....as opposed to FHFA's signing.
Treasury doesn't have any say so in a ratification scenario. If the SC rules that Calabria has the option to ratify the NWS as the constitutional remedy fix, then the decision is solely his.
No. The only thing the shareholders want vacated is the constitutional remedy (or lack thereof) by the 5th. What I am saying is that SCOTUS may vacate and just punt to Calabria for ratification.
Furthermore I said it is highly highly unlikely SCOTUS would provide a remedy on the APA claim.
Here is the requested relief:
The Court should affirm the Fifth Circuit’s statutory ruling and its ruling that FHFA is unconstitutionally structured. It should reverse the Fifth Circuit’s ruling on the appropriate remedy for Plaintiffs’
constitutional claim and order that the Third Amendment be set aside.
And I only addressed the Constitution claim, just as was in your reply I quoted.
I expect them to punt when it comes to remedy on the constitutional claim. I'm 90% confident they'll punt on the APA with regards to a remedy and affirm the 5th.
And that guy is an idiot. You only get the 28 cents/share and the CVR's if you owned the stock on July 2.
Now if you did own it on July 2nd, which means you had to buy it no later than June 30th, then you can now sell it and still get the 28 cents according to the Plan.
In summary, if you are buying it now....you're an idiot...and if you owned it July 2 and haven't sold it by now....you're also an idiot.
BK Plan filed. Shares get ZERO. Sell while you can.
I guess we'll find out tomorrow
LLEXQ trading at 6 cents
LLEXQ Today is first day trading.
UP. From the Debtor's filing today this is certain.....there are multiple parties interested in doing some kind of deal and the $3M the Debtor is asking to be used for DD reimbursement purposes is being set aside only for the most serious lookers. I infer from the filing that it's most likely Amazon who's the most serious and asking for the $3M in go away money if a deal doesn't get done.
I have NEVER in my over 10 years of bankruptcy experience seen this type of 'break-up fee' when there wasn't even a public sale on the table.
This is not some activist investor or a group of bondholders angling for better plan treatment....this is a BFD.
At $750/hr, that's 4000 man hours.
No, the Debtor wants to approve up to $3M for potential buyer(s) for their legal expenses incurred while looking under the hood. Whoever is looking (cough Amazon, the worst kept secret ever) has no doubt signed NDA's and is pouring over the data so that they can strike an offer/make a deal. If no deal is made, they want to be repaid for their time.
This is standard stuff. What isn't standard is the secrecy....which is usually frowned upon in bankruptcy cases. The fact they went this route is further indication it's Amazon.
I don't care about the RSA and I don't need any bankruptcy lectures. I've been on two statutory Equity Committees so I know how everything works behind the curtain. I could write a book on this shit.
Amazon is buying, that is confirmed today in docket index 267. How much and the structure has yet to be determined. Everybody's identity involved in the RSA is public, but now a private investor has emerged. You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out who it is.
https://cases.primeclerk.com/JCPenney/Home-DocketInfo
Yeah and Whiting (WLL) is in his court and it's trading around a buck, since shareholders will get shares and warrants. Weatherford shareholders got some recovery too. Neither had an equity committee. So enough of this 'all shareholders in front of Judge Jones are screwed' nonsense.
Maybe a buck or two, depending on what they get from the government covid grant. That's likely to be $500M or more. Of course Amazon is taking that into consideration.