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Predictions of TLD for nwbo have been posted on this board for over 5 years. Thousands of times. All wrong.
If there is another extension to warrant suspensions beyond 12/15, that does not mean that TLD is imminent, but that it is further delayed. Looks like a clear pattern that some folks just do not want to see.
Do you really think there are significant speculative shorts?
I expect that close to 100% of nwbo short positions are hedged by warrants. Properly hedged shorts are indifferent to a buyout rather than harmed by it.
Probably no moderator saw the first story, and someone quickly saw the second. Both are clearly off topic.
I also note that political posts are a much more frequent problem than moose tales. Although there is potential overlap if you study US political history, as there once was a Bull Moose Party.
nwbo angle - I've heard of pharma mouse testing, but not moose testing. Maybe moose testing is holding up P3 results?
Given that #2 is potentially illegal as selective disclosure, an 8-K is clearly the correct answer.
I agree with most of that.
Woodford was a star at Invesco, but lacked that large company support system in his own firm. Perhaps that success was as much a product of the Invesco environment as his own savvy?
Having been a PM, the part that mystifies me is the total disregard for risk, combined with challenging liquidity. If you want to run a risky low-liquidity strategy, including non-traded stock, do it in a long term partnership or a closed-end fund. Certainly not in funds with daily redemptions.
Specific to nwbo, his due diligence was poor. Then his buying was extremely sloppy. I think he personally pushed nwbo from $5 to $12 bidding against himself. It is hard to understand him missing the governance issues, yet he did. It seems we largely agree on his subsequent mistakes.
You are certainly correct that Woodford made a number of errors related to investing in nwbo.
One you fail to mention is sufficient due diligence regarding Cognate and Toucan. He admitted that on his blog, back when he had a firm and a blog.
He didn't realize up front that he needed Board representation. By the time he did, his leverage was much diminished. His choice of nominee was poor - strong in forensics made him a threat, and lack of pharma experise made him relatively easy to dismiss.
LP's choice (Cofer Black) also had zero pharma experience, which I suspect was her way of flipping off Woodford.
Right, and I suppose you think there was no point where that big pharma experience might have been incredibly helpful to tiny nwbo running its first P3 trial?
Given the corporate governance the next few years, Leary could only have helped.
Powers couldn't risk having someone with nwbo Board power digging into Cognate and Toucan transactions.
If a new big money investor looked at nwbo, one of the first things they would find is how LP treated previous big money investor Neil Woodford.
My inclination is to take nwbo's NT filing at face value rather than try to parse every word.
If there were any material deals besides Flaskworks, we would have seen an 8-K. If something happened after quarter end, it would only be noted in "Subsequent Events" and not affect 9/30/2020 financials. That would not hold up the 10-Q.
There are some moving parts to the Flaskworks deal; milestone payment (whether met or not) and a cash/stock payment due within 120 days of closing. There is also the matter of whether Flaskworks becomes part of NWBO US or its UK subsidiary.
There is nothing especially difficult about valuation for options, so perhaps whether or not an event qualified to trigger acceleration of vesting.
nwbo listed the reasons for delay in the NT filing, so you don't need to make up excuses.
"Northwest Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) was unable to file its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q timely due to certain pending accounting and valuation matters such as those in connection with the acquisition of Flaskworks during the quarter, and due to subsequent events (after September 30) affecting the accounting for option awards during the quarter."
However, they also said "The Company currently expects to file its report within the extension period", which did not happen.
While you are correct that today is the ideal day to bury news, you should know by now that predicting nwbo news (good or bad) is an exercise in futility.
Perhaps you meant Cognate? nwbo owns no US manufacturing.
So what have Powers & Co. really been doing the last five years?
Like all small biotechs that have no product ready to sell, they sell stock instead. Over 5 years shares outstanding have risen from less than 100m to over 800m, so there is some evidence that Powers & Co are pretty good at selling stock.
The financial statements will reflect data through 9/30/2020.
However, there is a section labeled "Subsequent Events". For nwbo, this can be some of the more interesting reading.
Nice Robert Jordan literary reference, but George R. R. Martin might be more appropriate.
Wheel of Time was completed, although after Jordan's death.
Still waiting for at least 2 more Martin books, with nothing but hope and rumors of completion.
When have abstract numbers, titles and presentation dates ever resulted in meaningful nwbo news? Never?
One positive could arise from disappointment with the latest conference. Maybe it will stop folks from obsessing about every conference, even those where nwbo or Linda Liau is on the schedule.
How many thousands of posts have there been about tld at the next SNO, ASCO, etc? All wrong. All very misleading.
Apologies. I would not intentionally omit anyone. However, I do admit to grabbing the first list I found rather than checking that it was the latest and greatest.
Interesting to look back that nwbo longs were wildly optimistic in their predictions, yet the stock has done remarkably well.
NWBO poll - Top Line Data - Predictions
Flipper, I have made your requested date change.
I think the below info is now completely up to date.
Unless I hear back (reply to this Post) from anyone wanting to add or revise their date prediction, then this will become the Final Version.
Date TLD; Name; Post/Msg; Comments
5/31/20 marzan 278764
6/1/20 tryn2 278859
6/1/20 abc1212 278935 Per 279048 (reverting back to June 1)
6/2/20 Hansm7777 278779 Hansm7777: I too think NWBO mgmt put in some buffer room in their announced dates. I think their data lock will happen early next week and I give about three weeks to work the numbers and another week for review by the medical experts.
6/3/20 joeycav11 278858
6/4/20 veeets 278841
6/5/20
6/6/20
6/7/20
6/8/20 pgsd 279089
6/9/20 Lorie3168 278958
6/9/20 reg2015 278928 my birthday. T.U. Peace reg 2015
6/9/20 NNBPEfan 279007
6/10/20
6/11/20 Sharkee2 278835
6/12/20 The Rover 64 278849
6/13/20
6/14/20
6/15/20 FloatServe 278724
6/16/20 highwayman4life 278870
6/17/20 Chiugray 278887
6/18/20 Pharmboy46 278838
6/19/20 dude409 278894
6/20/20 TheFollower 278919
6/21/20 CherryTree1 278918 CherryTree1: I will take June 21st - the summer solstice. I was seeing if I could find Linda Power's birthday to see if it was in this date range but could find it. Good Luck to You
6/22/20 Hbpainter 278754 optimism
6/23/20 sentiment stocks 278833 sentiment stocks: My rationale for the earlier date is that I think they were still hoping to data lock by the ASM, despite the hospital hold up due to Covid. So I suspect they will be able to data lock prior to end of May. So I'm thinking by perhaps 5/15 - data lock, and then I'll go with the middle ground between two weeks and two months for top line - give or take.
6/24/20 sbnyc 278821
6/24/20 eric007tc 279110
6/25/20 eagle8 278892 & 279037
6/26/20 sukus 278880
6/27/20 Dr Bala 278842
6/28/20 photonic5 278725 I think we'll get a datalock announcement in Mid May, the week after Mothersday
6/29/20 skitahoe - Gary 278866
6/30/20 Evaluate 278714
7/1/20 vmlg17 Priv Msg
7/2/20 Horseb4CarT 278861
7/2/20 Survivor2012 278938
7/3/20 whosleftholdindabag 278718
7/4/20 beartrap12 278920 beartrap12: 7/4 fireworks! And in time for my birthday, 7/5. (Somebody took that date and it’s a Sunday)
7/5/20 mxp1 278844
7/6/20 monarch6500 278726
7/7/20 RJL1998 278715
7/7/20 sun bum 278757
7/7/20 Dude409 278745
7/8/20 Hspooner 278758
7/9/20 Lykiri 278886 "(related to Sawston)"
7/10/20 Kam8 278830
7/10/20 Palmer50 278952
7/11/20 Kypee 278898
7/12/20
7/13/20 bjoel5150 278752
7/14/20 H2R 278739 … and a great PPS by the end of that week.
7/15/20 MHill77 278717
7/16/20 antihama 279377
7/17/20 NeWBrO 278850 GBM Awareness Day ...???
7/17/20 ilovetech 278933
7/18/20
7/19/20 WJR61 278868
7/20/20 Bigfoot OR 278748 my birthday
7/21/20 Alexius 278756
7/22/20 Gus1212 278762
7/23/20 Bigmahalo 278867
7/24/20 BangkokJohnny 278865 and post 278872
7/25/20
7/26/20
7/27/20 xoma4578 278862
7/28/20 snoopycomic 278719 birthday ??
7/29/20
7/30/20
7/31/20
8/1/20
8/2/20 Longfellow 278722
8/3/20 Know-Fear 279003 "Being that today is 4/20 I would take 7/14, but H2R has taken it (the date). And since NWBO is historically late and allowing for some latitude due to the Covid19 situation I’ll take 8/3/2020"
8/3/20 rogers5729 279038
8/4/20 CaptainOblivious 278882
8/13/20 NWDR 279050
8/17/20 BlueJordan I think given the trend at the company and all that's going on the world right now, we should not be too idealistic. We need to except some delays, although not too much, given the company has given a guideline.
8/24/20 CogDiss 1188X 279180
9/7/20 Sir Pumpernickel 279042
9/14/20 flyfishingcherokee 279118 I submit the date of June 12 for Data lock and public disclosure of Top Line Data will occur September 14, 2020.
9/21/20 flipper44 279550
9/25/20 KFA670 278741 Post 278741. son's 1st birthday. Dang I'm last on the list! To clarify I think datalock will occur much earlier, but Im betting TLD, the grand finale, the last hoorah will be 4-8 weeks after the lock
1/4/21 exwannabe 278956 I previously guessed not this year, so will stick to it. And LP is certainly capable of such a delay.
4/1/21 LessisMore 279071
6/30/21 JerryCampbell 278879
n/a OilPatch 278881 Not big on predictions... as long as data-lock & Topline happens within 2-3 months all is good in my world.
Some of those extensions to November would have expired in May.
Most (all?) of the suspensions gave the holders a 6 month or longer extension, which adds time value. That time value is significant becase warrants back in May had little intrinsic value.
Given that Linda Powers suspended/extended her own warrants, why is it so crazy for a warrant holder to do the same?
The only case where suspension would have been crazy is if someone believed nwbo stock would spike up prior to November, then collapse by November.
Even if you ignore taxes, some folks here could sell a small amount and be playing solely with house money.
You would probably be surprised that nwbo is not "super high beta". YF reports 5mo beta as 0.82, well below average.
I think it is accurate to describe nwbo as high absolute volatility. The low beta reflects non-correlation with a market index rather than low vol.
Warrant exercise does not affect stock price.
If warrants are in the money and close to expiration, then it becomes necessary to exercise to accrue that value.
If warrants are in the money and still have time to expiration, then it normally only makes sense to exercise with the intent to sell. There is no reason to give up the time value. However, as the warrants get deeper in the money (I think $1.10 stock price vs $0.20 exercise price qualifies), then time value becomes tiny relative to instrinsic value.
Show me anywhere I said something positive about Feuerstein. I'll wait...
Criticizing your lack of balance when citing a years-old attack link does not constitute defending Feuerstein.
No link as requested - so I'll assume your prior claim was just stuff you made up.
I think Feuerstein is a hack journalist of zero importance. It is nwbo longs who give him continued relevance by obsessing about him.
"validated after the fact" - got a link specific to the Post article?
The fact is that you were aware of the apology letter, yet deliberately omitted it from your original post. Where's the journalistic integrity in that?
The Washington Post article gets linked endlessly. However, you fail to mention that TheStreet (Feuerstein's employer at the time) demanded and received an apology.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/washington-posts-pearlstein-didnt-intend-to-disparage-thestreets-integrity-12929412
The options have value whether or not exercisable, so that is irrelevant.
The Form 4 says nothing about the recipient. There is no info regarding tax issues because Form 4 is for holdings.
It is entirely possible that this gift is a charitable contribution which would make any discussion of gift tax silly speculation.
new = filed today. Do you need an explanation for "filed today"?
New prospectus on the SEC website.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000110465920114289/tm2033071-1_424b5.htm
On October 12, 2020, the Company entered into financings totaling $11,900,570 pursuant to this prospectus supplement (the “Offering”). The financings were comprised of:
· $9,975,570 from an offering at $0.816 per share (based upon the average 10 day closing price ending on October 12, 2020) of newly registered common stock of approximately 12.2 million shares with 30% warrants with an exercise price of $2.00 per share and an exercise period of 12 months (following a 3-month suspension after issuance), and
· $1,925,00 million from a convertible note which is convertible at $0.85 per share (the “Note”). The Note carries no warrants unless it is converted. If, and only to the extent, the Note is converted it will carry 30% warrants with an exercise price of $2.00 per share and an exercise period of 12 months (following a 3-month suspension after issuance).
All of the new warrants issued in the Offering are suspended until January 15, 2021.
In addition, as part of these agreements, certain investors who have existing outstanding warrants that have not yet been suspended are now suspending approximately 3.54 million additional existing warrant exercise shares until January 15, 2021. In consideration for the suspension of the 3.54 million existing warrant shares as part of the Offering, the Company issued approximately 261,000 warrants with an exercise price of $2.00 per share and an exercise period of 12 months (following a 3-month suspension after issuance). These suspension consideration warrants are also suspended until the same January date.
Moderator note:
If you believe moderation has been over-zealous in removing a post, it is possible to appeal. There are supposed to be multiple ways to see your removed content, but one that works even for non-paying members is:
Scroll to the bottom.
Under the "Help" list, Click on "Contact Us"
Scroll down til you see a link for "My Removed Posts"
Each entry in the list should have an option to appeal.
I think warrant holders will exercise in the manner that best benefits themselves.
Unless warrants are about to expire, the only reason to exercise is to sell. It's easier (and lower market risk) to sell a smaller number of shares.
From the perspective of the warrant holder, cashless exercise is effectively selling part of your position back to the company. Instead of paying cash for the amount of the exercise price, you hand over part of the warrant position.
Since you appear to have mastered phase 1 of cashless exercise math, let's take another step.
The reduction in share count is inversely proportional to the difference between the share price and exercise price.
The higher the share price, the greater the number of shares issued via cashless exercise, and the smaller the reduction in share count.
Also think about the implications of all those deals that adjusted strike price down. It makes it more likely that those warrants get exercised. It increases the number of shares that would be issued via cashless exercise.
Works fine in theory, at least to start. There are some regs (ex: creeping tender) to keep in mind. There are levels where SEC disclosure would be required. There may be company bylaw issues about how much an entity could acquire.
Even simpler, a company could buy warrants or shares now.
Be aware that some (no idea what percentage after all the modification deals) of the warrants may be exercised cashless.
The reality is that the suggested scenario is not likely. If an outside company wanted full or even partial control, they have to deal with LP and her hand-picked Board. If someone she did not favor bought 10%, she could issue herself supervoting Preferred (already authorized) to maintain ultimate control.
Would you consider it different as September, 2036?
I suspect you are comparing apples and oranges, but in a non-obvious way.
On most sites, market cap is not a real time calculation throughout the day. It is a one time overnight data feed item, so based on the previous close.
Using your example,
600m market cap is based on the 9/24 close of $0.78
568m market cap is based on the 9/25 close of $0.74
@Anders,
You can't write down an asset that does not exist. Let's look at the last 10-Q.
Cash 5,955
Prepaids 2,262
propery, plant, equipment 157
construction in progress 1,541
right of way 4,236
other assets 755
That's all the assets on the balance sheet. Cash and prepaids are real money, so can't write those down. Right of way is a lease issue, so not specific to the trial.
So they might be able to write down PPE, Construction in Progress, and whatever is in Other Assets. That's a bit over $2 million.
As far as the $1B you mention as spent, that is already shown on the Balance Sheet as $895 million Accumulated Defecit. It has already been expensed, so there is nothing to write off.
nwbo short interest 16.6m shares. Data from FINRA as of 9/15/2020.
Management's recommendation on the proxy was the 3 year option. This is a chance for Linda to show she is responsive to shareholders, although on a matter of no importance whatsoever.
Recommendation
We recommend that you vote FOR the option of every three years as the frequency with which stockholders are provided an advisory vote to approve executive compensation, as disclosed pursuant to the compensation disclosure rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).
You are likely right that nwbo said September 9 different times; 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020.