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Seek,
Whatever the outcome of talks/studies these days, I can only remind people that it is unlikely that Peter & Sylvan did become OTC-BB gamblers all of a sudden, and substantial ones with over $300K invested, before spudding Tarach.
I think that even BEFORE drilling started there were preliminary talks with their partner CEPSA about certain scenarios.
It took TAIPAN 45 days to announce a dry hole. We are at 110 days as of today, if they spudded the 17th of April.
"(...)with the current SMP-1 rig drilling the wildcat Tarach-1 well in Block 11A and which is expected to take 60 days to complete."
Hello!?!
The Doc.
IMO, The market has a dry well already discounted at the present prices. What the market does not have discounted is the "deal' ERHC and CEPSA has worked out per kingpin's source. CEPSA has a continuing interest or they would not have bothered to spend time working on any deal with ERHC. Their continuing interest will be a positive for ERHC and the share price. For example if the 2D in Kenya and the Gravity study in Chad show a conservative potential of 1 billion barrels in the combined two countries at reasonable estimate of those reserves of a price of .25 cents a barrel the shares are worth .50 cents each [that would be only about 2X the costs of those studies].
Although this is the first well in the block many players in the sector in Kenya are watching the outcome with a more positive expectation more than any other such well in recent history.
This is as the Tarach-1 well might be the only well in the works this years and a discovery is expected to lead to a second well.
OilNews Kenya has further learnt from a source that the planned second exploratory well , the Egole-1 a four-way rollover closure onto a Northwest – Southeast trending fault plain with mean prospective resources of 101 million barrels of oil has been postponed indefinitely. Egole-1 had earlier been planned to follow shortly thereafter.
JCanada,
Maybe you can ask your contact also why ERHC or CEPSA is not in the position yet to release to pretty clear and simple information, 108 days and counting, while it took TAIPAN only 45 days...
If the next well is not being drilled, then one can deduct from that, that either the study of the results has been finalized, or that the decision not to drill another hole in one of the other 11 drillable prospects has already been taken.
In these kind of cases a pretty standard PR will do, right...?
108 days...
oldoil, the rig has been released and the next well is not being drilled, there was no oil found...confirmed by my contact that was on the rig for the this well. He has lost his is job and "is looking for new opportunities"
Dream on.
I think their attention goes to their current huge investment in ERHC, don't you think?
If people start conspiracy theories, then you know what time it is.
You're 'beating around the bush'... :)
Jcanada says the 20inch hole does not say anything at all...
Sir, What's your comment? Are you an oilman too?
He, I'm a Doctor. Lol.
Go ahead buddy,
Layman's terms please.
I'm not working in the industry.
I asked for a layman explanation, not an insult, oh great one.
Apparently you disagree with Sneak on this one.
And while you are at it:
Why are we still waiting for results, more than twice the time it took for TAIPAN to announce the result of a dry hole, in Kenya too!
Jcanada,
Your lack of knowledge is leading you to try and find a positive outcome in this matter, based on irrelevant information...good luck with all your theories.
Is Sneak in agreement with this statement?
drilling a big surface hole is usually a result of difficult formation below, or highly contrasting formations with different pore pressure requiring more casing strings...the more casing strings, the bigger the top one needs to be...
Sneak,
My main man, but WHY DID THEY THEN SAY UPFRONT, that this hole had to be successful, in order to continue drilling!?!
That does not add up.
And since the 'jury' is still out, I do not expect they encountered a classic dry hole, since they are busy with something now, in relation to the results.
The Doc.
Ok,
tubing must be sized to support the expected rates of production of oil and gas. Clearly, tubing that is too small restricts production and subsequent economic performance of the well. Tubing that is too large, however, may have an economic impact beyond the cost of the tubing string itself, because the tubing size will influence the overall casing design of the well."
That's not a LAYMAN's explanation, Kownski, LOL.
So you can figure how big that hole was, all the way down.
Sneak,
I doubt that TAIPAN drilled a 20" hole to start with and set 7" casing in a "dry" hole.
I hear you, but:
Then why did CEPSA say upfront that if Tarach-1 would end up 'dry' (or unsuccessful, or whatever they said), they would not continue drilling...(!)
Let us not forget, this is an Exploration Well first and foremost. In the absence of 3D imagery, the knowledge gained from this well may go a long way in helping them deliver better results going forward.
Sneak,
They should enter phase 3 and may announce how many meters of pay dirt they discovered in the first well, good or bad. An appraisal well will not be forthcoming on the first well if success until after the second well is complete.
That is a negative statement, with some assumptions in it.
But it did fare from answer my question.
Try to answer the question, why you haven't heard anything in ERHC's case, after 106 days, while you did hear from TAIPAN after 45 days...
Give it a go... and I mean: a serious/believable answer. Surprise me, and I will give you credit if you can. Why are they withholding information for you?
Peter hiding 'under the desk', while some here claimed he never cared about 'us'.
I think he does care about his own shares, and he knows what's going on right now. Obviously something is going on right now, that was not going on in TAIPAN's case.
Anybody: try to answer that question. Maybe some think: Ah, well, ANYTHING can be a reason for this delay...
That's my point: no, NOTHING can be a reason for this delay other that that they are busy with SOMETHING, anything!
If the 'patient' deceased, the message comes out. Did you have to wait that long to find out that Elvis died? No!
And he is still alive! (Hahaha)
The Doctor.
By the way, did I mention that:
Block 11A, encompasses 11,950.06 square kilometers or 2.95 million square acres?
In holds two basins, and twelve drillable prospects in just one of them.
http://erhc.com/media/cached/photos/315/329x238/Block-11A-Seismic-446d0.jpg
Just browse again through it all, will SEO let it go up all in smoke?
Old oil,
(...)the entire block (12 leads) is 660 M B.
A significant amount of geological, structural and seismic investigation must first be completed to redefine the potential hydrocarbon drill location from a lead to a prospect.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120323931
News of a discovery can come, any day now.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120456896
Lol, backup plan for after drilling?
Africa Oil Operations Update
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - July 27, 2016) - Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company") (TSX:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to report an update on activities in the South Lokichar basin, Kenya.
Drilling Programme
Tullow Oil, Maersk Oil, and Africa Oil (the "Joint Venture Partners") plan to recommence drilling activities in the South Lokichar oil basin located in Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya in the fourth quarter of 2016 with an initial programme of four wells and the potential to extend this by a further four wells. The first two wells will be the Etete and Erut prospects in the north of South Lokichar basin. Other potential prospects in the programme include further appraisal of the Ngamia and Amosing fields to target un-drilled flanks, with an aim of extending the size of these existing discoveries. In addition, the Joint Venture is planning an extensive water injection test programme in the fourth quarter of 2016 to collect data to optimise the field development plans. Africa Oil holds a 25% interest in Blocks 10BB and 13T.
Read more at:
http://africaoilcorp.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/africa-oil-operations-update-tsx-aoi-201607271063939001
"As a matter of fact, it is uncertain if the second exploration well, the Egole-1 which has mean prospective resources of 101 million BO will carry on."
http://www.ecofinagency.com/exploration/1606-34645-kenya-cepsa-and-erhc-s-tarach-1-well-disappoints
Likely some study is going on now, whether or not to continue with Egole-1 anyway? Otherwise we would have heard something just like with Taipan's 2B dry hole within 45 days.
12 Drillable prospects in this basin. Two basins present.
The Doctor.
Tullow Oil - TEN first oil in 3-6 weeks
http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/201606/tullow-oil-ten-first-oil-in-3-6-weeks
Turkana oil transport trial begins
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000210136/turkana-oil-transport-trial-begins
Kenya Pipeline Company shifts focus to crude oil bonanza
http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2016/07/15/kenya-pipeline-company-shifts-focus-to-crude-oil-bonanza_c1384366
Anybody... good post by me?
Share your thoughts with the Doctor.
Sideeki,
We don't have time for conspiracy BS.
Even IF the company was 'dead' now, they would have announced results before they died. And even THAT 'little "company broke" fact' would have been disclosed, don't you think?
We don't need BS posts here. The situation in itself is serious enough.
Let's fight the professional flippers together, OK?
Do you have anything serious to say in regards to my post?
It seems not. And that comforts me, in a way! Dig?
JSC,
I said way before drilling, that I could not believe they were going to invest so big on the outcome of Tarach-1 alone.
I just still can't believe it. We'll find out soon enough, very soon.
Dan K from this morning:
"There is nothing more to it. They said information will be forthcoming when the company is in a position to release it. "
Maybe BS by the company but, at least they say they are not yet in the position to release info.
I think TAIPAN's dry hole in block 2B was disclosed sooner? Oh, yeah...
January 8, 2015: http://www.oilnewskenya.com/drilling-of-badada-1-well-in-kenyas-block-2b-begins/
February 23, 2015: http://www.oilnewskenya.com/taipan-resources-hits-dry-hole-kenyas-badada-1-well-block-2b/
This is a very, very, very short time interval to announcement of the dry hole...
Even in between there was a PR: http://www.oilnewskenya.com/badada-1-well-drilling-update-in-kenyas-block-2b/
From Jan 9 to Feb 23 is 45 days. We are now at (spud at April 17) 3 months and 10 days... or: 101 days... and ERHC is still not in the position to release info yet...
While the rumour is a dry and abandoned hole, also in the same country TAIPAN drilled: Kenya.
So it can't be the government which is delaying...
Is it really 'spin' to ask what they, for God's sake, are talking about when there is nothing to say other than: The patient has deceased!?!
why is ERHC "not yet" in the position to say that the patient (supposedly) has died!?!
The Doc.
An interesting message from Dan Keeney, from yesterday:
Doc, thanks for the note. I don't have any information about it. Management has indicated that information will be provided when ERHC is in a position to do so. That is the full extent of what I know.
Opus X,
From a fellow investor, something to ponder about, a very very longshot, but nonetheless it has some truth in it:
One other thing. In many ways, this whole oil patch circumstance is one big game. It was a game when they said the JDZ had expected quantities. It was a game when that Kenya Oil News website said Tullow's well was dry when it wasn't, and it's a game now with ERHC as well. In the previous cases, the reports were wrong. In the JDZ case, it was leaked that oil was found in expected quantities so that those who produced that rumor could sell out before everyone else found out there was no oil. In Tullow's case it was about dropping the share price to buy cheap Tullow shares, most likely. And in Kenya with ERHC, probably the same thing. I see such rumors as contrarian indicators. If they sell sell, you should buy. And if they say buy, you should sell.
Emdyal,
I'm more sincere here than I ever was.
There is no 'spin' here.
Accept the fact that you can't come up with an answer.
Accept the fact that a conspiracy theory is absurd here.
Management bought shares from their own bank accounts I'm sure. Any money they received from ERHC is in the books.
You know that, I know that. If not, their careers in the Western World would be over.
Let's fight the professional "penny stock" flippers together, Emdyal.
It's indeed a mystery why the CEO and the CFO bought in so big, and gambled, like it seems.
They warned everybody, so they are/were more than aware of what could happen, I cannot emphasize this enough:
It is important to remind investors and other stakeholders that no wells have previously been drilled in our Blocks in Kenya and Chad. While the geological and geophysical work indicates prospectively, there are no guarantees before drilling that there will be a discovery of hydrocarbons. If there is a discovery, there is no guarantee that it will be commercial or in such quantities as to justify a development project.
ERHC investor,
The $300K was put up to stop the toxic debt spiral; otherwise they would have lost their company.
No buddy,
Pay attention:
Only God knows whether or not and were in block 11A oil is located.
Reading seems to be hard for some.
Again, for you:
Two non gamblers spend almost $300K exclusively on the outcome of 1 drill in one block which has never been drilled before...
Can you follow me so far? Ok! Stick with me here:
Since they, themselves, warned YOU, and other investors that commercial oil is far from certain during this Tarach-1 drill...
did they have a plan/option (ANY plan/option) that we do not know about for survival beyond a dry hole in Kenya, since those two are far from gamblers.
Why did they gamble now? And why so big?
If a fairy tale/conspiracy theory is all you can come up with, you are acknowledging the validity my question.
They paid from their salaries, any way you turn it. And they normally would not have done that.
Your suggestion that that money comes from the company, and it is not in the books, is hilarious. Maybe Offor gave it to them in a suitcase full of cash, and then they bought shares from it. Right? lol. Is that easy to do when you live in the States or London? Buying cash shares. Maybe they did it from within Nigeria... Good for you career if it comes out. Careers would be over. Is it worth that, just to trick you out of a few pennies?
Troy said it already: the BS that is posted here, sometimes, is unbelievable.
Again: you make my point EXACTLY. Try to come up with a valid reason as to why they DARED to throw $300K on a one time shot.
Imo, they could have gone to the casino and put in on red or black, and had a better chance... Middy could have told you that. Lol.
I'm all ears.
Funny post, jcanada.
"After Brexit, the oil prices fell, rose, fell and increased. Sheer madness, as the wont of all stock markets. If you are wondering what might happens, don't. We predict that, together, higher demand from across the globe, supply disruptions and falling crude production will stabilize this wobble soon. Ultimately, the future for oil, as always, is bullish".
http://oil-price.net/en/articles/brexit-turkish-coup-oil-prices.php
This is not why the clown bought big into ERHC, selling the barge for 8 million...
The Doc.
Conspiracy theories are laughable.
I can tell you one thing, with some comfort:
Those clowns are deep inside the same boat as we are (expect for the fact that they did not invest as early as we did).
I can't imagine that they gambled on Tarach-1 alone, so big.
The Doc.
For that amount you get 12 drillable prospects, and another basin....
And Chad....
And the EEZ, two blocks, 3 actually...
And a possible chance on the JDZ... right?
Will the puppets take ERHC into some sort of hibernation mode, like Strategy opted, over a year ago?
The puppets now have way more on the line, than their salary, which is probably already cut in half, or better...
Makes their recent investment in ERHC even more impressive. That's how I look at this current situation.
Abu Dhabi is pizzing $$$, will they leave it at this? Even off shore JDZ, 5 wells were drilled...
The Doc.
But there is that disclosure that CEPSA only would continue to drill if this one was 'successful'.
I just can't get my head around them puppets pumping over $300K in a Tarach-1 gamble.
That is: most of that $300K was invested with Tarach-1 in sight.
They hardly invested in de '14 Billion barrels' JDZ prospects, right?
The Doc.
if we look back at the JDZ:
In 2009, Sinopec and Addax, ERHC's technical partners and operators in Blocks 2, 3 and 4 undertook an exploratory drilling campaign across the three blocks that was completed in January 2010.
Biogenic gas was discovered in each block and discussions continue between the Joint Development Authority and the parties, including ERHC, that hold interests in JDZ Blocks 2, 3 and 4, regarding drilling results. The meetings with the JDA are aimed at reaching a definitive agreement on how to proceed with the next stage of exploration in the Blocks following the expiration of Exploration Phase I in March 2012.
JDZ Operations Update
The JDZ partnership is currently assessing the data for possible new exploration play concepts in this area.
12 drillable prospects in 11A.
From the 10k:
"CEPSA is carrying ERHC’s proportionate share of exploration costs except for the first exploration well where ERHC is expected to contribute 25% of its proportionate (35%) share of costs of the well."
So the way I read that...ERHC pays for its share of the first well...but is carried for all subsequent wells.
Good starting point for new negotiations. CEPSA wanted to be in Kenya, for just one gamble?
12 drillable prospects and TWO basins...
Is Tarach-1 the key to everyone of those prospects in terms of 'success'?
Did Little Peter & Sylvan play Casino Royale with over $300K on one take?
It is important to remind investors and other stakeholders that no wells have previously been drilled in our Blocks in Kenya and Chad. While the geological and geophysical work indicates prospectively, there are no guarantees before drilling that there will be a discovery of hydrocarbons. If there is a discovery, there is no guarantee that it will be commercial or in such quantities as to justify a development project.
Do you agree with me that (hopefully no wishful thinking) it takes so long because it is a result 'somewhere in between'?
Do you agree with me that Peter and Sylvan have no history of being a 'gambler' when it comes to invest in ERHC? Is there a 'backup' plan?
Kownski,
What do yo mean with all this abacadabra?
Can you deduct something from the picture in regards to that BOP being present? Is there a BOP on a dry hole also?