Addax Petroleum (fka AXC)

[Julius Erving]

Seek,

Whatever the outcome of talks/studies these days, I can only remind people that it is unlikely that Peter & Sylvan did become OTC-BB gamblers all of a sudden, and substantial ones with over $300K invested, before spudding Tarach.

I think that even BEFORE drilling started there were preliminary talks with their partner CEPSA about certain scenarios.

It took TAIPAN 45 days to announce a dry hole. We are at 110 days as of today, if they spudded the 17th of April.

"(...)with the current SMP-1 rig drilling the wildcat Tarach-1 well in Block 11A and which is expected to take 60 days to complete."


Hello!?!

The Doc.

IMO, The market has a dry well already discounted at the present prices. What the market does not have discounted is the "deal' ERHC and CEPSA has worked out per kingpin's source. CEPSA has a continuing interest or they would not have bothered to spend time working on any deal with ERHC. Their continuing interest will be a positive for ERHC and the share price. For example if the 2D in Kenya and the Gravity study in Chad show a conservative potential of 1 billion barrels in the combined two countries at reasonable estimate of those reserves of a price of .25 cents a barrel the shares are worth .50 cents each [that would be only about 2X the costs of those studies].

Also: another reminder from our trusted 'rumor' website, April 26th:

Although this is the first well in the block many players in the sector in Kenya are watching the outcome with a more positive expectation more than any other such well in recent history.

This is as the Tarach-1 well might be the only well in the works this years and a discovery is expected to lead to a second well.

http://www.oilnewskenya.com/why-all-eyes-are-on-cepsas-tarach-1-well-in-kenya/

But earlier, April 15th:

OilNews Kenya has further learnt from a source that the planned second exploratory well , the Egole-1 a four-way rollover closure onto a Northwest – Southeast trending fault plain with mean prospective resources of 101 million barrels of oil has been postponed indefinitely. Egole-1 had earlier been planned to follow shortly thereafter.

http://www.oilnewskenya.com/cepsa-erhc-commence-drilling-at-tarach-1-prospect-in-kenyas-block-11a/

This does not make sense. Why did CEPSA, supposedly, upfront cancel the plans for a second well, but 11 days into drilling suddenly a second well IS in the planning again, if Tarach-1 is successful.

These are the same guys from OilnewsKenya that came up with the rumor.

Do they have a rumor as to why it takes 50 days to conclude and announce it is a dry hole?

Anybody?

The Doctor, of common sense...