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MRK/Isentress
From a purely kinetic standpoint, I find it remarkable that integrase inhibitors work well enough to make a difference. Essentially Isentress gets one shot on goal for each infected cell; if it's not around in adequate concentrations at the right place and right time that cell is screwed for life.
OT: More on recent events
What he said
By employing foreign borrowing and spending taxpayer monies from those that have acted responsibly, the government proposes to step in and re-allocate reward to those that deserve punishment and punishment to those that deserve reward. This has two effects. First, it encourages bad risk taking and bad capital allocation. The conservative and intelligent decision to rent instead of buy a house one can’t afford is punished: the renter's tax dollars are taken away and the chance to buy the house he wants cheaper goes down. Second, incentive for proper risk taken is reduced. This causes the production process to break down over time. Socialism by nature infers less income generation and less innovation.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/fed-socialism-free+market-government-tax-risk-capital/index/a/13...
>A government bailout only reinforces the belief that no one will ever suffer an adverse consequence when they sign a contract.<
Or even the perception that the government might bail them out. I think it's been established by others here that Bush's move is (suprise!) just kabuki.
OT: No, not yet...I've been killin' myself for clients over the past few weeks. Maybe this weekend.
Nobody answered me regarding whether there is a mechanism by which I can make a Yahoo portfolio public. What I'm envisioning is a list of high-yield stocks/preferreds/funds/other vehicles in the I-Box.
The simplest solution is to recycle the Toll Brother monstrosities (I'm sure there is substantial value in the gold plating on the faucets), repossess the overconsumer's leased BMWs, and put them all in public housing projects until they pay off their credit cards.
Sorry, if there's one thing that makes me angry it's people spending themselves into debt for stupid consumer possessions and fancy houses. Speaking as someone who has 46% of his business income stolen by the government, my taxes shouldn't pay to rescue them from their idiocy.
Now I will stop talking about this.
Talk about the nanny state, this takes the cake. What a bunch of as*swipes--Bush, his administration, and the Fed. Not to mention the idiots who got themselves into this mess. They need to lose their property.
South Street Seaport. Duh, everyone knows that.
Not only have these folks defaulted on the loans for investment property, many have also had to declare bankruptcy. Even worse, most of them are past the 90-day money-back guarantee period on their "Nothing Down for the 2000s" and "5-minute Millionaire in Real Estate" seminars from Robert Allen.
www.stockcharts.com
Type in JAV
Then go to the bottom and under indicators, switch to Chaikin Money Flow. I believe stockcharts.com also has explanations of all of the key indicators.
I've found that money flow is a very good indicator. It's only a very minor part of what I consider when buying a stock, but I do watch it.
I used it with some success to determine when to repurchase RPRX earlier this year.
Wow...I didn't realize CMF turned positive. This is the one indicator I watch and trust.
I did some work on an IVIG product several years ago, and remember thinking that this kind of sh*t is what gives the whole pharmaceutical industry a bad name: overpriced, ineffective, and resource-intensive. I stopped working with them.
Just offhand, I think IVIG treatment is ridiculous. All IVIG is is purified immunoglobin g. There's no selection for specificity. In other words you get a grab bag of IgG. I don't see how one can target a specific disease state, as the proportion of IgG specific to relevant epitopes is likely to be very, very low.
Unless it's used for a common disease. For example, we used to do plaque assays for herpes simplex virus by infecting the cells and covering them with media that contained purified, pooled IgG (same stuff their using in the clinic).
Plus it's hideously expensive, both to buy and to administer.
Sorry if the ridiculousness of IVIG has been covered already.
ARM resets peak in March 08
Looks like about a year of h*ll. Good time to buy a house, though!
Also see: http://www.billcara.com/CS%20Mar%2012%202007%20Mortgage%20and%20Housing.pdf
>Or does hiring a marketing firm AND IR specialist get the sentiment out of the way that is "in the way" according to this post by RFJ???<
A properly constructed publications/communications plan could double or triple the value of this company, and it wouldn't cost Repros more than $600K over two years for say 12 reviews, 4-6 primary articles, abstracts/posters at every major meeting, a speaker's program, and strategic oversight and platform/message development.
The keys for shaping the Androxal market, just off hand, include:
1) Communicating the novel MOA of the drug
2) Highlighting the limitations of current agents, including mode of administration and the drawbacks of supranormal testosterone levels
3) Identifying the need for testosterone therapy in general
4) Promoting the safety and efficacy of the drug in restoring testosterone levels
The keys for shaping the Proellex market (again just off hand)
1) Highlighting the MOA of the drug and build on the abundant data that shows this class of drugs works
2) Identifying the urgent need for new therapies for endometriosis and uterine fibroids
3) Promoting the safety and efficacy of the drug in the core proposed indications
3) Communicating potential uses beyond the core proposed indications
You shape the market by developing a platform based on the above and identifying consistent messaging that is used in all communications. Then you build a publication program that identifies which reviews and primaries will be written, when and where they will be submitted, and when and where the abstracts and posters will appear. You can also build a core advocacy group of physicians who believe in the potential for the products, and have them guide the agency in developing a speaker's presentation, which is then used by the core advocacy group to build market excitement.
It's all really very simple. Such a program, as I said before--if properly executed--could really build awareness about both products both in the medical community, the investment community, and with potential partners. Plus given the low market cap of Repros, it could have a tremendous impact on shareholder value.
You've got to communicate the data--repeatedly--in peer-reviewed venues and at major meetings. Otherwise it's like a tree falling in the forest with nobody around to hear it.
I don't have the links right now, but if you look for Zonagen articles in the Houston Chronicle (or another Texas newspaper) you'll see that there were some issues at Zonagen. He said/she said, but still I'm sure they inspired caution.
Holy moley. I was out all day at a meeting. Good thing I didn't see what happened to the market today.
The good thing is that there's high yields galore to be found if you're brave.
Does anyone know if there's any way to share a Yahoo watchlist publicly? Gearing up for my high-yield/macroeconomics board, which will be launched with much fanfare (including trumpets and clowns) as soon as my clients give me a rest.
>Joe P. has been masterful in reconstructing this company, licensing and testing valuable drugs with a relatively low cost/burn<
Joe P. is also a major reason why this is a $140 M company instead of a $500 M plus company. While the guy knows what he's doing, he has a rather sordid history (unwarranted or warranted, it's not up to me to judge) that Wall Street still hasn't gotten over.
Hey, at least JAV fell a lot less than the market today.
It's summer, and every summer I regret investing in biotechs. And every fall I fall in love again. Don't worry about RPRX.
The fall in RPRX is good for me because I'm rebuilding my position. This will be round 3!
>Maybe one of us can email this feedback to Repro??<
Go ahead. My plate is full, but I can certainly direct them to the right people.
Not bad...but with a little leverage you can do better than that in munis.
For example, BSD is yielding 6.51%, which is about 10.02% tax adjusted. Or if you have the privilege of paying 46% of your income to the tax man because you live in NYC, BNY yields 5.65% or 9.71% tax adjusted.
Although these yields aren't spectacular compared with what you can get elsewhere, they're pretty damn good, plus you get the satisfaction of not paying tax. Unless, of course, you accidentally get hit with the AMT.
Speaking as someone that tells these companies what to do for a living, I think that RPRX would be best served by engaging a professional--preferably an agency but at least a senior-level consultant--to help get the word out about their product.
I'm not talking about road shows, etc. I'm talking about getting the data out there at medical meetings and in publications efficiently and rapidly. Right now I see no evidence that Repros is making any efforts in this direction. Specifically, here's what they should do:
1) Ensure that their data are presented at multiple meetings, both US-based and international. If necessary, they can repurpose the same data to present at >1 meeting
2) Ensure that their data are published in major journals, as rapidly as possible.
3) Commission review articles that illustrate the clinical need for Androxal and Proellex, differentiate these agents from current and future competitors, and highlight key data from the clinical trial program
4) Develop a speakers program and engage select KOLs to give medical presentations to colleagues that lay the groundwork for both Proellex and Androxal in clinical practice and generate excitement in the medical community
5) Develop a formal communications program to tie all of this together, identifying key messaging and utilizing it consistently.
The problem I see with Repros is that they're taking a 1-pronged approach, that is to say, they're doing okay (but not great) at getting their messages out to the investment community, but the medical community--and other potential stakeholders that go to medical meetings, read journals, (which includes the investment community as well)--have no idea what these drugs are or how they are differentiated from, say Testim (for Androxal) and Lupron (for Proellex).
In short, getting the primary data out in credible venues, whether at meetings or major journals, would do much to enhance shareholder value here. Repeating and reinforcing this information with reviews and speakers brings additional value. The company can't rely on their investigators to write these sorts of things in a timely manner without a whip and assistance. Hence the need for an agency.
Typically, a partner would deal with all of this, and these sorts of initiatives would start right around the beginning of phase III. Since we're there already with both drugs, Repros should be moving forward with these sorts of programs *now*.
No charge.
OT--Jonathan:
Right now, the high-yielding stocks/other vehicles in my watchlist or actually in my portfolio include:
[I think I'm going to start a high-yield board here on I-Hub...sorry for talking about this on BV. My last post on the subject.]
ADVDX (14%)
AGD (9.30%)
AOD (~10.0%)
AWP (~10.0%)
BEP (11.30%)
ERH (10.30%)
FRO (13.80%)
HTE (17.10%)
NRI (12.30%)
PFN (10.20%)
PHT (10.50%)
This is just what I'm watching, along with some of the other shipping companies. Not necessarily what's in my portfolio right now. A few are REITs, which probably haven't hit bottom yet. I'm particularly fond of HTE; not only does it pay 17%, but the payout ratio is in the low 60's.
Hmm...maybe I shouldn't have posted that. Let me be clear: I'm not suggesting "preparing" by buying a gun, digging a bomb shelter, and stocking up on canned green beans. I was talking from an investment perspective only. What's safe? What can still generate returns? I have a feeling I'm going to be doing a lot more shorting than usual. Plus high-yield and more gold (the actual metal, not the ETF surrogate).
Although I am a perennial optimist--and I've calmly invested my way through many a market disaster--I don't think PL1's scenario is too far out of line this time. And it will only get worse as more ARMs reset; we're not even at the beginning of a deflationary cycle in housing.
I am convinced that regardless of who wins the presidential election, investors are in for some serious pain.
If Democrats win, the short- to intermediate-term consequences (say 4 to 8 years) are going to be tragic for investors as we swallow some bitter medicine. Particularly if the tax issue comes into play.
If Republicans win (and they continue the policies of the current administration), the intermediate- to long-term financial, political, and societal consequences are going to be extremely severe and very long-lasting. I'm thinking end-of-empire bad.
It's a really bad choice all around for people who have had the intelligence and foresight to have invested their money. The question for me is how to prepare for what's coming.
We're not supposed to get political here...but from what I understand Edwards has based his platform on 1) not reducing spending; 2) focusing on healthcare; 3) ending the 15% rate. All in all, I would say this is probably not the best news for investors, and really not good news for the biotech/pharma industry.
On the other hand, the Republican candidates universally want to continue spending our way into even more massive debt on war. So no improvement there either, from an economic standpoint.
Just offhand, I have to say this is one of the most unappetizing presidential elections in recent history. The Democrats are only marginally more appealing than the Republicans...and that's coming from a Democrat.
Another thought is can you imagine the market tragedy that would occur if the Democrats rescind the 15% rate? I don't think it's politically viable.
I am *not* talking politics here, but the Democrats are thoroughly between a rock and a hard place. I agree that they will likely take the White House and extend their majorities in the House and Senate, but it's likely to be a one election cycle phenomenon because the next president will take the blame for both the Iraq mess and an economy in shambles. The question is, from an investment standpoint, will they be able to pass a tax hike in what is bound to be an exceedingly bitter political atmosphere, particularly with all the other problems they will have to deal with.
I think the answer is probably not. We'll see though.
Although somewhat OT, I'm betting the key to surviving this is in purchasing high-yielding stocks, particularly in the energy and shipping sectors, and other vehicles that provide income (ADVDX, for one). There's a limit to how far down an HTE can go when it's already yielding 17% with a payout ratio of only ~62%. At least until 2011, when the Canadian government starts taxing CanRoys as regular businesses.
Given that I will have about 80% of my investments in high-yield stocks, I am mildly interested in what's going to happen in 2010 when/if the 15% LT cap gains/dividend tax expires, if it isn't legislated out of existence before then. I have a feeling that this tax break will remain because too many political donors, not to mention retirees, rely on this income.
>You've got to believe that some of the hedge fund crisis will spill over into small-cap biotech. That coupled with tax-loss selling could make for a brutal September/October, unless the FED comes to the rescue.<
It's just as likely that any hedge-fund crisis would benefit small cap biotechs. The vast majority of hedge funds are short, not long, on biotech.
And I'd like to see hedge fund managers' heads served on a plate to their investors. The growth of the hedge fund industry is a relatively recent phenomenon, the market got along without them just fine before and will after a significant percentage of them are put out of business. As far as I'm concerned, most of 'em are just blood-sucking ticks.
JAV
Appears to be headed back into the toilet, for some reason. Surprising because the approval for marketing in the UK (which in my opinion is all but a done deal) should be coming in the next 2 weeks or so.
I see the JAV is headed back into the toilet again. I find it really unusual that this stock ranges 10% a day on no news.
One of these days I'm going to start buying again. Can't be more than a few weeks until UK approval. Hopefully JAV stabilizes before then.
Seems like Worthwhile reading on pharma acquisitions. I've only read the first few pages so far, though.
http://www.terry.uga.edu/finance/research/seminars/papers/outsourcing_RD.pdf
Hey Dew,
I use ETF Connect to evaluate closed-end funds. You can get much the same thing as your tables here:
http://tinyurl.com/2jow9w
No memory tricks needed. I was, um, not in a position to think about HQH's NAV before 2000
>I compared HQH to HQL, both being closed end funds managed by Hambecht and Quist, and they seem to have extremely similar behaviors and holdings with HQL trading at $13.38 currently while HQH is trading at $16.51. Neither have options so I guess the lower priced one (HQL) is a better bet as it requires less capital...<
This is a silly statement. You shouldn't worry about the cost/share.
Dew's argument is based on discount from NAV. I'm not sure where he's getting the 14%, but my data says that HQH is trading at an 11.99% discount to NAV and HQL is trading at a 10.92% discount to NAV as of 8/17. Thus, other factors being equal, HQH is the better deal.
Regarding Dew's statement that HQH's discount to NAV is at its highest level since 1998, not correct either. HQH was trading at a near 25% discount to NAV from 1999 to mid-2001 and a 11%+ discount between 6/30/94 and 1999. The last time HQH approached current discount levels was late 2003. Nevertheless it's still a sound argument.
>these drugs have side effects. what if you experience the side effect right after the dose is given?<
The major side effects of biphosphonates are gastrointestinal, hence the somewhat complicated dosing guidelines for oral medications (remain upright for half an hour, take with a full glass of water). It doesn't seem difficult, but on a population basis...well...
So it's unlikely that there will be many immediate side effects associated with administration of an IV bisphosphonate. Of *much* greater concern is the potential for osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) occurring after dental surgery. If you've been to the dentist recently, you'll have noticed that they now have a check box asking whether the patient has taken a bisphosphonate. If a patient needs an extraction 6 months after taking Reclast, they're at higher risk for ONJ.
I think the risk for ONJ--low though it is--is one reason why Amgen's denosumab will be a success.
ANSV
I guess that's an "encouraging development."
Wasn't "Biowatcher" following this? I think he changed his handle because of the similarity to Biowatch. Any thoughts?
I can confirm that.
ANSV
And the geniuses at Zack's upgrade to buy. $11 price target???
Upgrading Anesiva to a Buy
Thursday August 16, 1:53 pm ET
By Zacks Equity Research
Pounding the table on a small-cap drug developer Anesiva, Inc. (NasdaqGM: ANSV - News) [formerly known as Corgentech] is Zacks senior biotech analyst Jason Napodano, CFA. We excerpted the following from today\'s Buy report:
ADVERTISEMENT
We are upgrading our rating on Anesiva to Buy from Hold based on several visible catalysts expected over the next few months. We see $11 as fair-value.
Anesiva has two candidates in various stages of clinical development. In late November 2006, the company filed a New Drug Application (NDA) for lead candidate Zingo (formerly known as 3268). The NDA filing was accepted recently and the drug\'s PDUFA [Presciption Drug User Fee Act] date is September 24, 2007. Meanwhile, Anesiva will initiate several phase II clinical trials for Adlea, the company\'s second pain management candidate, in the second half of 2007.
We think that the shares are undervalued, misunderstood and poised for a big run over the next several quarters given the expected approval of Zingo in September 2007. Anesiva is also seeking to expand Zingo\'s product label to include the adult setting. Meanwhile, Adlea should move into phase III trials later this year. This should help drive the shares to our $11 price target, which we arrive at by discounting our 2011 EPS [earnings per share] estimate of $1.35, applying a peer-group average multiple of 25x, back to present day at 25%.
ANSV
This has to be one of the more bizarre reasons for a conference call I've seen.
Anesiva to Host Conference Call and Webcast Tomorrow to Discuss Encouraging Development in Zingo(TM) Program
Thursday August 16, 7:22 pm ET
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., Aug. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Anesiva, Inc. (Nasdaq: ANSV - News) will announce an encouraging development in the Zingo(TM) development program before the markets open tomorrow. A conference call and live webcast will be held at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow to discuss the announcement.
Interested parties can listen to the live audio webcast by dialing 800-340-6289 (international dial: 706-634-1538) or by logging on to http://www.anesiva.com and going to the Investor Information page. Please connect to Anesiva's website several minutes prior to the start of the conference call to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be necessary. For those unable to participate via the Internet, a 24-hour replay will be available for seven days after the call by dialing 800-642-1687 (international dial: 706-645-9291) and giving the following pass code: 13882358.
About Anesiva and its Diverse Pipeline of Pain Products
Anesiva, Inc. is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company that seeks to be the leader in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutic treatments for pain. The company has two drug candidates in development for multiple pain-related indications. A New Drug Application (NDA) has been filed for the most advanced product, Zingo(TM). The second product in the pipeline, Adlea(TM) (formerly 4975), has been shown to reduce pain after only a single administration for weeks to months in multiple settings in numerous mid-stage clinical trials for site-specific, moderate-to-severe pain. Anesiva is based in South San Francisco, CA. For more information about Anesiva's leadership in the development of products for pain management, and an overview of the clinical challenges being addressed by its product candidates, go to http://www.anesiva.com.
Homeland Security Enlists Clergy to Quell Public Unrest if Martial Law Ever Declared
http://www.ksla.com/Global/story.asp?S=6937987&nav=0RY5
Aug 15, 2007 07:07 PM
Clergy to Help Government During Martial Law
Could martial law ever become a reality in America? Some fear any nuclear, biological or chemical attack on U.S. soil might trigger just that. KSLA News 12 has discovered that the clergy would help the government with potentially their biggest problem: Us.
Charleton Heston's now-famous speech before the National Rifle Association at a convention back in 2000 will forever be remembered as a stirring moment for all 2nd Amendment advocates. At the end of his remarks, Heston held up his antique rifle and told the crowd in his Moses-like voice, "over my cold, dead hands."
While Heston, then serving as the NRA President, made those remarks in response to calls for more gun control laws at the time, those words live on. Heston's declaration captured a truly American value: An over-arching desire to protect our freedoms.
But gun confiscation is exactly what happened during the state of emergency following Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, along with forced relocation. U.S. Troops also arrived, something far easier to do now, thanks to last year's elimination of the 1878 Posse Comitatus act, which had forbid regular U.S. Army troops from policing on American soil.
If martial law were enacted here at home, like depicted in the movie "The Siege", easing public fears and quelling dissent would be critical. And that's exactly what the 'Clergy Response Team' helped accomplish in the wake of Katrina.
Dr. Durell Tuberville serves as chaplain for the Shreveport Fire Department and the Caddo Sheriff's Office. Tuberville said of the clergy team's mission, "the primary thing that we say to anybody is, 'let's cooperate and get this thing over with and then we'll settle the differences once the crisis is over.'"
Such clergy response teams would walk a tight-rope during martial law between the demands of the government on the one side, versus the wishes of the public on the other. "In a lot of cases, these clergy would already be known in the neighborhoods in which they're helping to diffuse that situation," assured Sandy Davis. He serves as the director of the Caddo-Bossier Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.
For the clergy team, one of the biggest tools that they will have in helping calm the public down or to obey the law is the bible itself, specifically Romans 13. Dr. Tuberville elaborated, "because the government's established by the Lord, you know. And, that's what we believe in the Christian faith. That's what's stated in the scripture."
Civil rights advocates believe the amount of public cooperation during such a time of unrest may ultimately depend on how long they expect a suspension of rights might last.
Homeland Security Enlists Clergy to Quell Public Unrest if Martial Law Ever Declared
http://www.ksla.com/Global/story.asp?S=6937987&nav=0RY5
Aug 15, 2007 07:07 PM
Clergy to Help Government During Martial Law
Could martial law ever become a reality in America? Some fear any nuclear, biological or chemical attack on U.S. soil might trigger just that. KSLA News 12 has discovered that the clergy would help the government with potentially their biggest problem: Us.
Charleton Heston's now-famous speech before the National Rifle Association at a convention back in 2000 will forever be remembered as a stirring moment for all 2nd Amendment advocates. At the end of his remarks, Heston held up his antique rifle and told the crowd in his Moses-like voice, "over my cold, dead hands."
While Heston, then serving as the NRA President, made those remarks in response to calls for more gun control laws at the time, those words live on. Heston's declaration captured a truly American value: An over-arching desire to protect our freedoms.
But gun confiscation is exactly what happened during the state of emergency following Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, along with forced relocation. U.S. Troops also arrived, something far easier to do now, thanks to last year's elimination of the 1878 Posse Comitatus act, which had forbid regular U.S. Army troops from policing on American soil.
If martial law were enacted here at home, like depicted in the movie "The Siege", easing public fears and quelling dissent would be critical. And that's exactly what the 'Clergy Response Team' helped accomplish in the wake of Katrina.
Dr. Durell Tuberville serves as chaplain for the Shreveport Fire Department and the Caddo Sheriff's Office. Tuberville said of the clergy team's mission, "the primary thing that we say to anybody is, 'let's cooperate and get this thing over with and then we'll settle the differences once the crisis is over.'"
Such clergy response teams would walk a tight-rope during martial law between the demands of the government on the one side, versus the wishes of the public on the other. "In a lot of cases, these clergy would already be known in the neighborhoods in which they're helping to diffuse that situation," assured Sandy Davis. He serves as the director of the Caddo-Bossier Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness.
For the clergy team, one of the biggest tools that they will have in helping calm the public down or to obey the law is the bible itself, specifically Romans 13. Dr. Tuberville elaborated, "because the government's established by the Lord, you know. And, that's what we believe in the Christian faith. That's what's stated in the scripture."
Civil rights advocates believe the amount of public cooperation during such a time of unrest may ultimately depend on how long they expect a suspension of rights might last.
They will get no cooperation from me.