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FnF hiring FA's will also help, but it needs to get done soon so that those FA's can (i) have discussions with new investors and (ii) communicate what they find back to FHFA, especially with regard to the financial viability of their capital rule.
Normally, with regulated utilities etc. one has two sides, where one advocates for the utility and its shareholder's interest - namely, the utility/company itself --to the regulator. The back and forth then settles on a workable compromise.
Here we have a trully messed-up situation where a regulator is also the conservator, so no one in the process has, so far, been making a case for the utility/company and its shareholders... Not a healthy, or productive, process.
Hopefully, the comments, and FA's, can inject that kind of perspective -- at least from new investors. (Though they have interests not completely aligned with present holders.)
There really should have been independent conservators in each of FNMA and FMCC so that the process was more healthy -- but of course the Bush/Obama focus was extra-judicial killing of the companies
Stinkie, you need to put her in cruise control cos the exit ramp comes in November -- 5 months away...
Unless SCOTUS goes big and orders retroactive relief in Seila law...
Or something else (good) hits the news
This is Glenn's video which lays out the present situation and investment opportunity.
Like the content, like the background -- could use a powerpoint to add slides with pop-out numbers and points to take it to the next level.
Glenn's friend in Miami must be happy -- and I don't mean Hyman Roth
$2.13 was, and is, my target - absent news
May well go under $2 especially if markets go down
Always fades on no news
FNMAT is trading at $8.20 for a $25 series - 32 cents on the dollar.
One month ago was $6.20, so RISEN 33% in last month
Year low in March was $4 -- so 100% gain from the low
So terrible? lol
Provide a link or other evidence Paulsen sold out?
Haven't got one, right?
not sure what you mean about 1 prefer?
I bought some FMCC prefs today without the price changing, so not THAT illiquid...
FFF, I have been selling ET options all morning. That was my biggest position.
I am not buying anything, since I was 100% invested till I sold the ET options.
I am holding MAC, BPYU, PK, GE, WFC, DCP, ET and BHC -- but tempted to sell 20% of everything to raise more cash...
But I bought much lower and I like all these guys that pay outsized divvies aside from BHC and GE. So I am standing pat...
How about you? Anything you see worth buying long?
I am only tempted by BP since the pound will get stronger against dollar and I like oil story -- bought this morning then sold since I am betting I can buy it lower... BP with a 10% yield in pounds with no tax.
People who live in glass houses should not throw stones -- FnF's board has no power since all their power now lies with the Conservator in Mark Calabria
Take a moment, take a breath, lol
We are all going to do great in Fall I hope -- all my other holdings are partying now lol
Nice try my friend...
I am in FNMFO which is most illiquid -- so even WORSE than those lol
All about the face value, either in the BIG BANG in November or else in Judge Lamberth's court...
Bring it on, bring it on, bring it on...
I am going to walk away from these for the summer, with an eye on SCOTUS and FA hiring news, since it is all about post-election action
:) Your magic does not seem to work -- long and strong pref here
Not so sure about that
First, unemployment went down through May
Second, lots of big companies furloughed employees so they did not have to pay them -- all those folks count against unemployment numbers but they will go back to work soon... May numbers starting to show that
So that headline unemployment number was always suspicious - and now May numbers suggest that it is not as bad as it looks... Hence the massive runup
Have we runup too fast? THAT is another question!
FFF, that is my take too... Right now, the markets are moving at triple time -- we are now basically through the price recovery and the money is made
Against that background, FnF again look comparatively good -- better opportunity to made some profits than normalized wider markets
That has been my thought at least, I am easing back in here
Positive SCOTUS decision would be the cherry on top, but I predict Justice Roberts votes for something less as the swing vote
lol Right on -- nice to have for the Summer and Fall...
FFF, what is "PPT"?
Well, I hope to take some profits on my other stuff and buy some more prefs here soon
The wider markets are bouncing back hard and I would like to avoid a drop -- so FnF story works great since it is decoupled from markets
Fingers crossed for a robust, retroactive SCOTUS ruling...
BOOOM INDEED
Wondered why M parade was happening pre-market -- SKT, MAC and PK too
Could be a monstrous green day for the out of favor sectors -- oil/energy also rallying on OPEC+ deal
So energy got two black swans on way down, now two swans on way up. Happy days indeed...
Lol, signs of a squeeze? Quite the reverse - they shorted the crap out of the last rip in ONE day
No news is the shorts playground - I expect negative hit peices from the usual suspects
Only news stops downward fade here
As if you could tell? Good luck with your investment
In court cases, commons are riding pref’s coat-tails, like you note
In RnR, ironically, common is riding the coat-tails of the warrants they all deride and are going to sue about (not). Ackman was right that warrants are only reason to keep existing common around - rather than dilute it to oblivion. They should have been careful what they wish for, warrants less important to Treasury = more dilution. Something spooked Ackman to hedge with prefs, I wonder what it was?
What you don’t know cannot hurt you, but it can kill your investment
No offense, but this was nonsense...
Very clear - I cannot make sense of most of these “arguments” that a conversion is illegal etc. Courts have been clear about the Conservator, aka Calabria. Namely that:
1. Calabria stands in shoes of BOD and commonholders
2. Calabria has no fiduciary duty to shareholders
3. So long as Calabria is pursuing soundness of FnF, then actions are not reviewable by courts
So, 1.-3. by themselves make clear Calabria can authorize a JPS to common conversion, as part of recap (hence aiding soundness) - and courts judge they cannot review this... so a lot of blather about suing Lol
Have people learned nothing as we trek through these court cases? Facts matter (and reading comprehension matters more)
Indeed, and SCOTUS is going to make FHFA director fireable at will -- so Calabria has got till Jan 15th 2021 to get her done...
Howlett is "speculating" -- in plain language he is making up his numbers based on guesses
None the less, interesting to see his valuations
SCOTUS judgement on Seilia law quite possible, or even likely, during that time frame too
I don't think the FA hires move things a lot, but obviously SCOTUS could have a big impact if it is retrospective
fortune cookie says
maybe the donkey makes money trading donkeys (FnF)?
My skeptical friend you are so right, but traders as well as shorts have been doing well -- basically traders long or short have done well on the volatility
LOL... markets up gang-busters but FNF putzing
The dislocation from markets is what I actually like, I *hope* when the inevitable correction comes in the markets then FNF, prefs at least, don't crash too
Probably commons fails to rise with market, but crashes with the market lol -- at least until news
All about NEWS...
Nope, no conversion powers here... except beer to water
No idea what you mean... whatever
Good for you for losing the weight, helps a lot...
No idea what you are talking about with the rest of it
GL with FnF
Our Conservator also said common will be "heavily diluted"...
Indeed, there is little point trying to correct things.
Now we have all hashed out the capital rule and its import, we are back to waiting.
I do worry about Justice Roberts and the SCOTUS judgement, Roberts like to try to be "politic" whereas the other conservative justices often follow their legal principles and damn the consequences... I hope we see before July.
I assume FnF's FA's get hired which might give a small boost since if they are Blue chip firms then that lends credibility.
But I do think all the action comes after the election and what portends to be a horrific campaign... curious whether bad polling for Trump pushes pref up...
The basic financial logic of this situation is fixed by certain states of affairs that really have not changed much since Moelis. So it is not surprising to see shadows of Moelis's assumptions, and plan, in the proposed capital rule.
Things have indeed changed here, we have moved materially closer to administrative action that will bear a lot of similarities, imho, to Moelis...
But we all make our own evaluations -- hopefully all FnF holders do well. After all, even Mr Magoo finds his way home safely, right?
It is correct that the OTC holdings do not have to be publicy reported -- you are correct.
I never said, or implied, anyone has to tell me anything. I have no subpoena powers.
BTW Ruud abandoned that name and now goes by Holdenwalker -- how many other names he or others have I do not know
Bought some more FnF preferred today -- really do not want to miss in case SCOTUS hits with something substantive...
Curious if, and how much, common would even rally -- would the rally get over $3 before fading?
Yank, you would not be disagreeing with me because I never said, or even implied, the REGULATOR can order a conversion -- it is not their concern or purview. Hence not mentioned, as pointed out to Guido, in capital rule.
Of course the CONSERVATOR can -- and WILL imho -- approve a JPS conversion.
So we can all sing cum bah yah and agree... except Guido... but FACTS MATTER imho
Paulson has not switched to common.
Every quarter, for the last few years, the Paulson OTC holdings get reported with the symbols as "FNMA and FMCC preffereds" -- and every quarter some numbskull says Paulson has sold his prefereds... But he has not.
FACTS MATTER imho
Guido, the CONSERVATOR stands in the shoes of BOD under HERA -- didn't you know this?
So any amendments to the SPSA, or settlement with plaintiffs, or initial raise, will be approved, and conducted, by the CONSERVATOR acting shoes of BOD
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news -- but FACTS MATTER imho