If $1260 doesn't hold we're going to $1240 and then it's make it or break it medium-term for gold.
We have a FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday along with important US data before FOMC announcement. They'll probably hint that another hike is "in play soon", which is going to strengthen USD and push gold down initially. That's my bet anyway.

I know, this is the only reason I haven't held my DUST shares to benefit from the latest drop. I hope they "resolve" the NK issue soon. I'm pretty convinced it would push gold over $1300 EASILY.

Yep, gold retreated to my first target so maybe I'll buy some. I'd love it to go to $1240 but that's a stretch target...

Given the circumstances $8 NUGT may be good for an entry. Let's see which way it goes from here. Unfortunately we don't know what's going to happen with NK case.

$1240 still exaggerated?

"gap will fill very soon" LMFAO

We'll see about that drop. I wrote 100 times last week that the recent jump in gold was politically driven and that it will drop with it as Le Pen won't win and even gave you link to the polls. And then when I'm right you say it was a "guess" and I had "no data". Who's cocky?
You're all correct this is just a beginning of the day. Let's see what happens next. I won't be here most of the time, because I'm on vacations but I'll be able to answer a few times.

I wrote last week that I will regret selling DUST but preservation of capital is the most important thing. Sometimes I go all in, sometimes average down. It really depends on what I expect (or don't know what to expect). I traded all-in on Friday with tight stops.

Again, congrats on JDST, it was a much better trade than DUST last week.

No, I'm too scared about NK to hold any amount of NUGT/DUST over the weekend. Normally, that would be a no-brainer for me.

And what data did you expect? French polls? I DID GIVE YOU IT. But of course you only listen to yourselves "GOLD UP!". You're preaching gold $1400 for some time now and dare to judge my call as "guess"? That's funny. Why aren't we above $1300 if you HAVE DATA?
That doesn't matter anyway. Cool heads are green, "to da moon" is red.

LOL, i gave you my reasons 3 days ago and they were ON TOPIC. You have very short memory:


Rastignac Friday, 04/21/17 09:08:19 AM
Re: nyy13 post# 33463
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of 33531 Go
2 things:
- The last jump from $1250 is only (geo)politically driven
- When you chart all time resistance and all time support you'll see that there's plenty of room for gold to jump back and forth. It just seems to me it's to early to get out of it.

Gold consolidated around $1240 a few times already so it's a natural support, at least for some time. I'll be buying NUGT again when it gets there OR when we break $1300 because of Le Pen/North Korea.

I'm not saying that's 100% just that it's the most probable course of action IMO. trunkmonk, for example, looks at it differently and only time will tell who was right.

I will. Only North Korea to the rescue now.

Rastignac Monday, 04/17/17 04:25:16 PM
Re: trunkmonk post# 33354
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33355
of 33525 ?Go
Gold would have to break $1300 and stay there. I'm just betting the more probable option (subjectively) from the technical point of view. I think gold pulls back to at least $1260 and NUGT below $9.


You don't have to thank me.

You still think pull back to $1240 is not possible? ;) We're in $1260 with a SINGLE drop. When gold goes up on a political event it then goes down with it.

Where is "TO DA MOOON" crowd now?

I'm making another few % in DUST right now but I'm not going to hold it over the weekend as anything can happen. Normally I just don't see gold going up from here without any significant event.
I'm on vacation next week and I won't be able to trade as much as I would wish.
Have a nice weekend too!

(JNUG & JDST both read LMFAO!)

I'm out. I wish you & myself gold above $1300 on Monday. GLTA!

I'm not French so I don't know how much I can trust these polls but I don't think they're as skewed as in US.

You're right but recession can happen tomorrow, in a year from now, or even 3 years. I can't count how many times I've heard about "muslim buyers" and other such nonsense that was supposed to push gold $500 higher in no time. Fundamentals have little meaning for an instrument that can loose 95% of its value in a few months (or even weeks). NUGT is almost purely technical trade for me.
Because of fundamentals I have much, much more in UGLD which is much less volatile and so doesn't suffer that much from decay as NUGT do. I trade NUGT in 1-2 weeks long swings maximum and I buy/sell UGLD about once every 3 months.

2 things:
- The last jump from $1250 is only (geo)politically driven
- When you chart all time resistance and all time support you'll see that there's plenty of room for gold to jump back and forth. It just seems to me it's to early to get out of it.

Gold consolidated around $1240 a few times already so it's a natural support, at least for some time. I'll be buying NUGT again when it gets there OR when we break $1300 because of Le Pen/North Korea.

I'm not saying that's 100% just that it's the most probable course of action IMO. trunkmonk, for example, looks at it differently and only time will tell who was right.

"If the French elect le pen then it's go time".
Agreed but allegedly she has little chance in the second round, which is two weeks from now.
If you had told anyone in September that gold would go back to $1120 you'd be laughed at (I wouldn't believe it either). Any mention of a pullback is treated as blasphemy here but it happens 90% of the time when people scream "to the moon". Take a look at the people in the JNUG board. They're crying like babies now.

I don't do it but if it works for you then it's all good.

I still think it's too early for gold to break all-time resistance. "Pull back" for me is minimum $1260 and ideally $1240 for gold. This consolidation should end with a sharp pull back to this area. No one knows when we're going to break that resistance but when we do it's only a matter of time before we're at $1400 so there'll be plenty of time to buy miners.
I'm selling my NUGT shares today for sure.

"Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!"
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 21, 2017

Maybe that. Trump helping Le Pen for whatever reason.

Dollar up, gold up. Has anything happened?

Let's tweet to Trump and ask him what he thinks about strong dollar. We could get a nice spike!

Yeah, this is harder to trade lately. DXY taking a dive and gold in place. I hope NUGT get's above $10 today so I can sell what I bought yesterday and get back in DUST.

Exactly! Glad to hear I'm not the only one to trade this way. "To the moon" crowd got raped pretty hard today. I should be selling my DUST shares right now but I got scared by the lunatic with nukes. Oh well.

Have you noticed the negative divergence between gold and GDX today? That reminds me of something that happened two months ago...

"To da moon" indeed! ;)

Unfortunately that's the reality we have to account for here. We've seen it happen many times in the past when gold faced this resistance line.

I grabbed some but I'm not convinced. DXY should test 99 and gold another stab at the resistance. We'll see.

And as I said, we open a few % lower but holding DUST overnight wasn't worth the risk. I'm on sideline for now.

Maybe. I lost so much money listening to "to the moon" comments before that I won't listen to it this time. I'll buy it when I see it.
If not for Pentagon comments I'd squeeze much more from DUST today but I closed green from the last week anyway so it's all good.

I'm out of DUST. I'll probably regret this but risk is too high. DXY and gold charts are telling me to buy more DUST though. Ehh...

And as soon as I wrote that, DXY is going down like crazy and gold pinned to the spot! Go figure!

Congrats on your JDST trade. It was frustrating watching JDST soar while DUST moved like a snail.
DXY still has some room below down to ~99 but is a bit oversold today. Gold is at a pivotal point and I hope it takes a direction before EOD. If not I'll be forced to sell. I wouldn't like to hold DUST while gold fly above $1300 overnight. It keeps getting rejected but who knows...

What a cliffhanger!

Dollar being beaten by the Pentagon plans. Gold has to break out soon or else it will get smacked down again pretty hard.

"The moon" seems to be orbiting pretty low today. Told you, stick to the facts, not emotions.

I'm looking no further than the end of this week. I think North Korea problem is going to get resolved by the end of April and that's dangerous time to bet against gold. So, I'll be back in NUGT in a few days (or instantly if gold pops over $1300).