Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Before I go to bed, here are some last thoughts I posted regarding HTLD:
Yellow Corp is another trucking company that released earnings yesterday, they were 1 cent short, but the text of the release didn't look very bad, revenue was up 2.2%. Before you buy HTLD, (on today's short term list), check the reaction to YELL and to USFC, another trucker that releases before the open today.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I noticed Jenna has HTLD as a short since YELL's earnings were weak...and HTLD made it to our short term watchlist based on the combination of its technical and fundamental criteria. So tune in....the stop price is $18.91 on a long play.
Sam
The site has been updated for Friday, lots to look at. But caution is still advised for tomorrow.
Sam
....now trading back up to the 59 area, so maybe it won't gap down enough to make a good bounce tomorrow....guess we'll have to wait and see.
Sam
EBAY should have an interesting open tomorrow <g>.
Sam
EBAY might gap right into support tomorrow and be worth watching for a bounce after the open....a day trade only.
From Briefing after the close:
17:04 ET EBAY eBay (60.45 -1.17)
Company's Q3 revenue guidance of $278-$281 mln is likely to seen as a disappointment given that Multex consensus estimate is $281 mln... Though company upped its full year EPS guidance to $0.76-$0.78 from $0.73-$0.75, street had already anticipated the announcement as consensus forecast was for gain of $0.77... In other words, no upside surprises and arguably a slight downside surprise - considering stock's lofty valuation that could prove troublesome.
RIMM was an easy short to enter, not true with several of the others. Like ACE for example, it alerted close to the open, not giving a opportunity to short until 26.70.....and then there was XL. On the long side...KRON hit the stop. ROST did the best on the day.
Sam
and hitting the exit target price....now you can see why you have exit targets...the stock is now down over 3.50.
Sam
Still no strength in the last hour.....necessary to get much of a rally...
Sam
Oh those blind squirrels....<g
Sam
You've often heard the saying; "plan your trade and trade your plan," but what does it really mean? I don't suppose the army of day traders that have gone on to fight other battles that are not as deadly on their portfolio, had planned to lose money? But did they plan at all? And if they did, was it as the commander over a force they had no control?
The first group are the shoot from the hip type, they wade right in and take a shot at anything that seems to be moving. The stock starts down, "one more tick and I'm out.....darn out -.25.......oh sh*t did you see that! The second I got out it popped 3/8! I'll get the next one.....I'm in.....I'm up an 1/8! I'm out! After all they say you can't go broke taking a profit!....This is fun now.....next.....this one is a wild one bid/ask all over on second I'm up 3/8 then I'm down 3/8....ah good it's settling down now, I'm a little in the red it'll come back shortly...just like the one I got out with a loss on, the one that popped after I sold....umm doesn't looks so good now, in just a sec it will recover and I'll exit even......oh no looks like sellers, I'd better exit.....oh pleassssse take my limit order, pleassse.....gezzz now the ask is below my order, time for a market order....its gone I'm out!....big loss but at least I'm out and can try again tomorrow."
Surely that isn't the plan, win a little lose a lot? An no one "planned" to fail, just failed to plan.
The second group are a bit more studious, and often have a history of success at other endeavors, they studied every book, read every magazine, joined every newsletter and even paid the big bucks to be tutored by the famous Joe Stocks. "Oh, what a loser, so unorganized he couldn't pick a winning stock if it hung from his nose...I'll have no trouble trading stocks, after all I have (commanded armies, performed brain surgery, joined the Supreme Court), if I can do that I can make this stock trading work! Okay, I'm ready, here we go...the stocks dohicher just crossed the leading flabbenhouser line.....and it was confirmed by the expansion of the myopticalzorcall. All the planets are a line! It's time to buy!.........What? It's going down, it can't be going down.....go up, I tell you go up, you have to go up, there is no way, no way, it can't be going down, no way.....I can't believe it, its going down, this can't be, it can't be happening to me, no, it can't go down, I did everything right, e-v-e-r-y-t-h-i-n-g."
This group had good planning when to buy, but failed to plan for selling, or even failing. Don't let the emotional "I never fail" get in the way of your success.
The above is from my commentary this week, I'll write more about planning your trade later. It is important to know where you are going.
Sam
Since I mentioned RIMM, I'll go out on a limb. The short looks like it would go between 14.25 and 14.50, stop at 14.60. It is trading within that area so it should go.
Sam
Shorts are alerting faster than I can post them, here is the list for today. "There were several shorts, RIMM looks the most interesting since it is coming down after a mini-rally. The breakdown list included: ACE, ARW, AVT, CGNX, CNF, DAL, DE, LTR, SAFC, SKYW, TNB and XL.
RIMM back in the green at the present, I this might be an opportunity to short....
Sam
Speaking of needing to hold to harvest the gain. XL is a short for today, wow, too bad.
Sam
Though the health issues are very strong today, you'd probably have to have held them before today to make that gain. All of this were on our short term list this week. ATH, MME, TGH, THC and UNH. UNH is on our weekly list too, and hitting the exit target price.
Sam
Heath-HMO's strong this morning, many of those have been on the long list the last couple days. THC still on today. ACE broke down on the short list.
Sam
CNBC earlier made comments "No one knows how to prime the pump for business spending" ... Not true.... Business spending doesn't occur in a vacuum. If the business can see it can sell a product, increase margins or buy a product that facilitates them to provide a service they will spend the money, as long as they can see there is a return. To prime it? Find something the consumer desires, or exports.
Sam
A couple replacement short term trades and a large list to watch for a short opportunity are posted on the site. I'm looking forward to see how it goes in the last hour tomorrow. We need to see late afternoon buyers to change the down trend.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Nice to have a day that I get to cut much of the short term list cause the stocks went up to much and now are too high off their base <g>.
Sam
Both the longs and shorts are doing what they should...SPC hitting new lows...a short.
Sam
Is this real ..... ? See how the last hour holds up...But if you buy gaps it is best to wait until the stock breaks the high made during the first 20 minutes of trading.
Sam
It has been a long night, but the site has been updated for Wednesday.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Looks like more of the same after reviewing the earnings releases after the close. DRI is one we follow and could be worth checking into tomorrow.
Sam
Watching the CFO of GM on CNBC....you know the guy should be discussing car quality and improving that...not confidence in stocks...provide quality cars and the stock will be rewarded...
Sam
Good calls on both, I've sat here watching FLIR make high after high.
Sam
In UTSI 20.41...I was actually trying to get a decent position in ESST when I had a old breakout alert go off in UTSI.
Sam
The market isn't looking as good now, we might retrace some of yesterday's bounce. Right now it looks like the techs are holding up ok.
Sam
Things look good for tomorrow, two nice HMO's showed up on the short term scan, CVH and HNT. Could be fun for the longs tomorrow?
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
It looks like the market makes tilling enjoyable!
Sam
Hi Steve,
Thanks for the input, I'm ready to see one of those bullish periods, its gotten way to easy for the shorts to make money <g.
My weekend....we'll I couldn't avoid tilling the yard where Jennifer, my other half, wants to plant some grass. Now its 12:40 and I've finished some site work, blistered hands and all....and off to bed, only to face more of the same tomorrow...er uh today. Hope your weekend was better than that <g>.
Sam
Brown and Brown (BRO) didn't get any pre-earnings buying last week, and had the earnings not been so good I'd cut it from our Growth Stock Journal watchlist.
Even the revenue growth remains higher than the price to earnings ratio, the one caveat is that on Friday they announced that they purchased the independent insurance agency Cooper, Brown and Currie. The company made no statement on the cost of the acquisition or the effect on earnings. In this market environment a company not putting everything on the table is punished, as was BRO last week. The stock gets support at $26, so in both fundamental and technical terms it is a fair price, but the question is perception?
Sam
HPLA, HRB and OVER were the only stocks that came up on the potential breakout screen.
Again, the best strategy is to set an alert for the stock to break the previous days high by about 20 cents, then consider a long position after they alert. Since breakouts often retrace, you need to keep a tight leash on them.
Sam
I've gone though the numbers and things don't look so bad for Monday as they looked from Friday's close on the DOW.
I'll be updating the site shortly.
Sam
A look back at what I thought about how this year would go, "reprinted" from this weeks Journal commentary:
After six months of 2002 it is time for review of my thoughts on the year. I listed "Sam's Seven For 2002" during January. It is time to review, chew and cuss a few. Not that I'd change much a better market couldn't do for me <g.
1) The federal funds rate will end 2002 between 2 3/4 and 3.25%. Increasing from the current 1 3/4%.
We have six months to make a point in fed funds, doesn't look like it will at rise this year, now. There seems to be little worry about the spread between what you can make on your money and inflation at this point. And that is why I expected an increase.
2) We will be out of the recession by the end of April.
This was a done deal, too bad we weren't out of the bear market at the same time.
3) Inflation will stay relatively flat at 3%.
So far this is on track.
4) Unemployment will remain between 5.5 and 6 percent during the year. Relatively high.
Again, this is right on track.
5) Energy issues will likely get a lot of talk, but much less action, and we'll end up finding we had a uneventful year regarding pricing.
Again, so far I see no changes to this.
6) Strong industry groups: Aerospace Defense Equipment, Brokerage, Computer Memory (storage), Consumer Electronics, Consumer Electronics Retailers, Electronic/Scientific Instruments, Homebuilders, Home Repair Retailers, Home Furnishing Retailers, Medical Software, Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers.....and Biotechnology will have a weak first quarter and a strong comeback the rest of the year.
This one has a few weak links, Computer Memory? Why did I think that? And the Biotechs have yet to turn the corner the best I can tell. I'm still looking for a stronger second half in that group.
7) The stock market - Up 5% on the NYSE, 7% on the NASDAQ but once again the Russell 2000 stocks will have the strength, up 12%. Okay, Okay, this is just a wild guess as I'm for various reasons, bullish about the year, but don't believe anyone truly knows. However, my true prediction is that it won't make a bit of difference where the market goes, but that you'll beat the market or double the percentage gain if you only trade when the Screened Stock Ratio is positive.
Ok, well the screened stock ratio has been negative for the last 27 consecutive days and counting, starting out this week at -1.83 after breaking its local low last week (-3.13 is the low now), the best projection I can make is that we will see something over a -4 before all is said and done.
Have a good week,
Sam
Sam@savvy-trader.com
We follow the economic data and when I saw this in Briefing this morning I thought it was so well said it is worth repeating here. Something to think about regarding the circular logic between the market and the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey.
From the Briefing.com In Play stories:
09:50 ET Consumer sentiment weakness
Though there is no denying the power of the Michigan consumer numbers to hit the market today, we would also note that this is really circular logic. The market is selling off because the Michigan data is weak, but the Michigan data is most likely weak because the market was off in June, and due to the corporate scandals that prompted that market weakness. Given improving trends in job and income growth, it's doubtful that this sentiment decline will have any impact on spending, but it will have a market impact today nonetheless.
Sam
The entire list today: ATH, INGR, JBHT, TGH, THC and UNH. All up, but, since they are short term, not day trades, one day does not a profit make <g>.
Sam
The HMO's that came up on the screening are still doing well, despite the U of M sentiment survey. ATH, TGH and UNH.
Sam
The ratio looks better and may have reversed, will know better Friday. And, some stocks showed up on the screen...all is posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
Looks like it was wild today, I missed much of the day today, I'll be running the numbers later this evening. And heading back home tomorrow.
Sam
Our estimate of market risk and a few more shorts are posted on the site. http://www.savvy-trader.com
Be careful, we are overdue for a bounce.
Sam