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So why aren’t all us believers buying shares today? Volume is so low.
I got to vote for Jesse when I lived in Champlin, MN. Funny story….before he ran for Governor he was the strength and conditioning coach for the Champlin Park High School football team. Big high school, about 2000 kids. One snowy late October day during practice he made the team cross a large retention pond to get to the island in the middle to “toughen em up”. Air temp was about 25F, Water was about 35F and was 4 to 5 feet deep and about 40 yards wide. Made the kids strip down to their shorts and get across.
This was in about 1997-ish. There were no repercussions!
He remained Mayor then won the Governor’s office!
Another one….A local reporter asked him….if you could be anything what would you be? He scratched his chin and said “a 38 double D bra so I could always be next to what I love the most”
And his most famous line…..”I ain’t got time to bleed.”
Backlog is NOT a GAAP number.
Every company is free to include or not include whatever in backlog.
Remember who the military customer is….The USA fed gov.
They the Feds play by different rules.
If the Feds say be quiet, then be quiet.
None of it matters anyway. Why? Cuz the stock is going up no matter what. The Feds said so.
My opinion is VirTra and every other company have great flexibility with what they report as backlog. In other words they can always find a legally valid reason why something should be included or not included.
Even with revenue recognition companies that are aggressive have tons of flexibility with respect to what and when certain dollars are reported. Oh sure, there are accounting audits BUT guess who pays the accounting firm.
I worked for 2 public companies and I assure you games are played every quarter.
Yesterday was last day to buy to get div
Most here are pretty smart. But everyone must separate their feelings about the CEO and company from the stock.
VTSI is going to go up a lot between now and November 20th. The main reason is very simple. Valuation. Wrap trades at a Forward PS of 35 and Axon at a PS of 16. Vtsi trades at a trailing PS of 3 and forward of sub 2.
Vtsi has a cakewalk to $50/share and if they simply deliver a Q2 of $7mil and Q3 of $10mil, the stock sees $100 this year. Those buying shares now are the smart ones. It took many of us a decade to make 5x or 8x our money. Those buying today will do better in 1/20th of the time.
My guess for tomorrows close is $11.80. Russell rebalance to be used as another excuse.
Having had a few months to ponder the massive stock spike and $17mil raise in late March I am more cornfused than normal (hold your jokes).
The two things that don’t fit with “normal Wall Street mode” and our CEO are these:
1. The buyers of the 3mil shares agreed to $6, rather than $4.50 or similar.
2. The CEO was willing to dilute himself and thereby give up significant long term control of the company.
I still believe the big spike was orchestrated by someone, likely someone associated with one or more of the 3 buyers.
Isn’t anyone here bothered by the fact that the 3rd buyer of 1 mil shares has never been disclosed? Sure, they maybe immediately sold some or all to avoid filing the Sched 13, but that is not quite kosher. Our CEO stated publicly there were 3 buyers, 1 mil shares each.
I’m just happy it’s finally going up.
Arz is exactly right. IF VirTra had a legit opportunity that required them to have an extra $17million banks would have been fighting with each other to make the loan. Think about it, 17mil at even 5 or 6% is a far better deal than 39% dilution.
The ONLY reason wrap has the market cap it does is the CEO. He is the brother of Axon CEO. Their bola product is idiotic.
VirTra on GMA this morning!
At least their simulator based on a preview I just saw.
Good Morning America!
In general I understand what you are saying but when I think through the exact details it does not make sense to me. When I place a trade it fills instantly and "prints" instantly. By "print" I mean I can see it happen in the overall volume number and in the chart.
If I ever placed an order and had to wait til end of day to see what I bought or sold I would go ape ship crazy as I suspect everyone else would as well. So from this standpoint it does not make sense to me.
Might this accumulation of orders be only from institutions and not individuals? Or maybe I just dont get it. Wouldn't be the first time!
Ardly, Your presentation and viewpoints and perspective are truly a gift to all of us here. What I liked the best and found the most compelling was you looking at what other companies have PR’d and noted that none contain the stuff in VirTras wheelhouse. There aren’t 5 analysts on the planet smart enough to approach it that way.
I started buying this week. Added more today!
The reason I still have shares is valuation.
At $7, enterprise value is about $50mil.
This is less than 2x 2021 revenue.
Then there is the sizzle of new shareholders.
And the vibe around The Big One(s)….military.
I also the 2 previous UP spike days.
That will happen again.
Very nice that you posted that but it is a rather damning and troubling indictment of our CEO. Speaks to his neglect of the LE market at the expense of chasing a ghost. All the CEO's hints and teases are just that, he is teasing to string along investors.
The presenter Kevin really needs to look up a definition of pneumatic. Does he really not know what this means?
All that said, I do think they have gotten or will get a big contract and the stock will rise significantly. My problem with all this is that the CEO has been teasing it for 3 years now. No problem with that either IF VirTra had the brains and resources to do 2 things at once. And they don't. They have UNDERPERFORMED in LE market because of their focus on Military.
When this pops to $198, I'm out.
Bought more at $6.66.......hhhhmmmmm
I might have to temper my $200/sh enthusiasm down to $198/share. I worry a bit that they are spending the money with a “build it and they will come” mentality rather than a “we got it so let’s accelerate” mentality. Perhaps $24mil burns holes in the CEO’s pockets?
Upping my short term target to $200 per share. It deserves a $2.2billion market cap.
If anything significant in tomorrow’s presentation you will get your $12 this week….easy
Ok, so the obvious question is …..Where did the 3million shares go? About half are accounted for in the institution list. And did Sabby and Hudson really sell off big chunks? Where were the SEC filings? None of this really matters, just idle chit chat as we wait for the inevitable rise to a $100 stock price. Maybe tomorrow? More likely the week of Aug 8th.
Finally! This is the first time in 12 years that one can buy this stock with absolutely zero worries. It is going far higher.
I sorta think if it can power through the 6.50 to 6.60 range with volume then it goes straight to $15 in the blink of an eye. That said, charts and tech analysis ain’t me strong suit.
Started buying today.
Easy double over next 12 months. $75 within 30 months. Yawn.
I don’t know for sure but I don’t think the options adjust at all. Look at some big blue chips that pay dividends, their options don’t adjust.
It still blows my mind that the BOD will not hold the CEO accountable to annual and multi year objectives and performance metrics. The fact is that the CEO has no metrics to which he is accountable. That is why there is no sense of urgency. The company is being managed and operated as if it is a hobby that sometimes pays for itself. Shameful.
Next week should bring double digits.
With only 25mil shares, this is easily worth $20.
Another nice day! Up and over $9
I started buying.
Classic deep value play.
Ok maybe not classic but certainly value AND growth at a deep valu price!
It’s like VirTra is trying to tell the world how messed up they are. This sort of position is stupid and does not exist at top tier companies. It is inherent within a typical purchasing person’s responsibilities.
Why would anyone want to work for VirTra? In my opinion, if one was to join VirTra one would be surrounded by 3rd or 4th tier talent and be working in a culture that values a punchtheclock mentality. One that rewards yesmen and statusquo and 45hours a week rather than PERFORMANCE and EXCELLENCE and MAKING MONEY.
Look at who is on their BOD. Look at their recent Chief accounting hire. Look at who their COO is. Look at what the CEO has done in the last 5 years. Oops sorry about that, I forgot the CEO did great things 15 or 20 years ago. He will probably update us all on years 2007/8/9 at the next conf call.
If VirTra would simply focus on performance and reward excellence they would do alot better.
I agree with you, RFP is way too cheap at the moment.
And this moment aint lastin long.
See ya in the 20s soon.
Nice day! Up and over $8. Now about half the way to where it should be.
And buying deep in the money calls for Oct and Nov.
What a beautiful stock and sector. Selling lots of way out of the money covered calls.
Fantom19, Ouch “taking over for B”...,that hurts. I’m almost offended. Not really, it was a good line and I see how someone could think that. I post the way I do because it makes me happy to know the CEO is forced to read it. And I do believe in everything I post.
That said, if I didn’t own any VTSI, I would be a buyer now. I do think it could double or triple in the short term. It has a hotter sexier vibe now than ever before. And it has had a couple giant volume up days in the last year or so. I hate the recent direct offering. It was stupid. It was lazy and reckless. If they needed the extra 17mil for a real opportunity any bank would have lent them the money for 5% IF the opportunity was real and solid. But the $6 price was a pleasant surprise.
At my peak I had over 4% of the shares.
Now I am a bit below a half percent.
And while I believe VTSI could double or triple in the short term, I am far more confident in several other stocks.
Good advice ARZ but now that I own so few shares I don’t much care.
To VirTra’s credit, they have basically forced me to go through Charlie/Matt at IR.
I have zero respect for those guys though.
I know you directed it to Utah.
My take is it is yet another example of Ferris trying to be too cute at best or perhaps too sneaky/sleezy at worst. He does that sort of crap all the time. He hints, teases, implies, etc. quarter after quarter. He gets tennis elbow from patting himself on the back. He speaks to the quality of his workforce that is sub par at best. He speaks glowingly of BOD yet every member is a yes-person.
And then at year end we all get kicked in the teeth with the reality of 5 or 10% year over year growth.
If you stuck with the stock for the next couple years you will sound just like me.
VirTra has my email blocked and will not take my calls.
We the shareholders should not have to “do research” to figure out what is going on.
Ferris reads this message board every day. Always has.
Yep, his backlog statement could have been aimed at May or even June and not the March-end number.
And Ardly, you hit the nail on the head with “altruistic”. The part that Ferris does not understand or conveniently ignore is that VirTra products would help more people if they were in the hands of more people. In other words, more sales, faster growth, would benefit society more than slow and steady wins the race.
VirTra is EXACTLY the same as Fonar, FONR. Very sad.
I had also read your recent email and I haven’t a clue (hold your jokes!).
Switching subjects....
If you take Ferris at his word, the direct offering was simply VirTra taking advantage of the crazy reaction to the Q4 report.
At the time I thought no way was that the case but now I am starting to think that is all there was to it. The $6 offering price suggests it was as Ferris said, VirTra being opportunistic. Had igg the been prearranged no way would the sharks have agreed to the $6 price. The biggest thing that suggests this was not the case is the 159mil volume day as it suggests prior knowledge of the direct offering by those who bought the shares. Because it took time and thought and planning to schedule and pull off the big volume day.
The irritating thing with VirTra and it’s CEO is that he could clear up every aspect discussed on this board. He chooses not to because he does not care about shareholders AT ALL. In fact his own actions suggest he doesn’t even care about his own shares. Why dilute himself? Why bring questionable person like Sabby into the mix? Why list his own shares for sale in the S3?
Again, the fundamental problem is a CEO who is still patting himself on the back for saving the company 20 years ago and one who would seemingly rather grow at 10% per year than 50% per year. And worse than all this is a CEO who would rather pick the shiny red apple at the top of the tree than the shiny red apple on the low hanging branch.
I truly hope for my own sake that Ferris had struck gold with some sort of whale contract but I doubt it. Someone with time to kill should make a chart of employee count verses date. I think it would leave us all depressed.