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UUU - IB has only 1300 shares available at a borrow rate of 52% in case anyone is interested.
DRCT +1.14 to 5.18, kicking myself for not buying a lot more shares in the mid $3's on Friday. When a stock enters a trading frenzy as this one did, it's often best to buy first and ask questions later ! Day traders will be driving the stock higher regardless of dubious financials ..... how high it goes, nobody knows.
NYCB - thanks for your insights, I appreciate it.
ACRS (0.64) - I joined you with a few shares. Can't go too wrong at this price. Thanks for bringing it to the board.
NYCB -.32 to 8.98, gets attractive if it keeps trending lower, imho. It was over $14 in late July.
fly 11/3 -
Wedbush downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $11, down from $12, and is removing the stock from the firm's "Best Ideas List," citing the bank's outsized commercial real estate, or CRE, exposure in a higher-for-longer rate backdrop. The firm's base case forecast for 2024 is that the U.S. experiences at least a mild recession and in that context it is "leaning into more defensive names for our bank group," the analyst tells investors.
ACRS -4.13 to 0.62, might be a speculative buy at this price since the company is a 4 trick pony, not just the 1 trick that failed. The 52wk high is $18, so tax loss selling probably a factor till year end, but the sellers may flush out quickly ..... how much lower can it go with all that cash and other pipeline prospects, however dubious they may be ?
PR -
Based on the overall program results, Aclaris will discontinue further development of the ATI-450 program, including halting enrollment of Aclaris’ ongoing Phase 2a trial of zunsemetinib in psoriatic arthritis.
“We are deeply disappointed with the results of this trial and for patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis. We would like to thank the patients and investigators for their participation in the trial, and I am proud of our team for their commitment to its execution,” stated Doug Manion, M.D., Aclaris’ Chief Executive Officer. “Despite this setback, we continue to look forward to the upcoming results of our Phase 2b trial of ATI-1777 in atopic dermatitis and initiating our Phase 2 clinical development program for ATI-2138.”
DRCT is in a trading frenzy. The earnings report was the catalyst that set it off. It traded something like 7x the o/s on Friday and since a lot of long term holders probably did not sell, it means the day traders were typically holding it for just minutes to an hour. They'll continue to drive the stock both up and down in the coming days. They're concerned about where the stock will be trading in 6 minutes, not 6 months. Maybe it will spike up to $5+ or even $10+ ? Who knows. Then it will settle back down and fundamentals will become more important. Maybe the financials are legitimate, but maybe not. I don't know, but if it spikes up some more, then I'll be taking profits. It's just a tiny trading position for me because I don't consider it investment grade. I don't have the confidence in the company to take a big position. The earnings growth seems almost too good to be true.
DRCT finished the after hours session at 4.42 ! A gap up Monday morning seems very likely. I'm averaged in at 3.43, but unfortunately just a very small position. I was being too cautious.
DRCT +1.43 to 4.04 on volume of 22M ..... that's about 1000x the normal volume ! Volume will quickly taper down next week but will surely remain way above historic norms now that the stock is on trader's radar.
RCMT +3.02 to 24.82, what a move ! I've been trimming from the very small position I have left. Looks like momo traders are getting on board.
NVDA +12 to 482, nice call at 396 just 10 days ago ! It's had a heck of a run since then .... weekly out of the money options are up several 100%, but tough to get the timing just right.
ELTK +.12 to 11.39 - I just sold my remaining shares and will look to buy back lower ..... earnings are due out before the open on 11/16.
DRCT +.88 to 3.49 in heavy pre-market volume of 2.7M ..... thanks for the alert. I just picked up a few shares. Strong Q3 results and Q4 guidance. Q1 looks seasonally weak, but otherwise revenues have been sequentially higher every quarter, usually by a lot. Sounds almost too good to be true .....
AAOI should be a good trader in the coming weeks and months amidst ongoing speculation about future earnings .... it will be interesting to see how it trades tomorrow -
The conf call transcript is now available though I haven't yet had the chance to read it -
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650101-applied-optoelectronics-inc-aaoi-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript
LMB - I don't own it nor will I be chasing it .... maybe it will come back down at some point to a good re-entry price.
AAOI -2.04 to 7.72 after hours ..... evidently the conf call was disappointing because the stock only started to tank after 5pm. I'll read the transcript when it's available. Q4 guidance seems lackluster, but maybe this is a 2024 story ?
TAST +1.62 to 7.84, yeah a golden opportunity missed .... I definitely would have picked up some shares in the low to mid $5's had I been watching it ..... just a few weeks ago it hit $5.28 but it was off my radar.
OGN -.48 to 11.79, you were wise to sell in the $14's, but this selloff to the $11's looks overdone to me .... it's now selling at just a 3.4x forward PE assuming earnings stabilize at this level .... of course, they have a lot of debt to deal with, so that could become problematic. Maybe tax loss selling will drive it down into the single digits by year end ? Is there a price you'd get back in after your 30 day tax loss restriction completes ?
Analysts still have rather lofty price targets -
fly -
Goldman Sachs downgraded Organon to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $16, down from $33. The company's Q3 results and management's commentary "included an agglomeration of issues," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while the Established Brands business again demonstrated resilience, disappointments were several, including sales misses across the portfolio, meaningful enough exposure to challenging economic and policy dynamics playing out in China, and a more modest than expected revenue opportunity for Hadlima. Goldman believes time and improved visibility will be needed to sustainably support a positive inflection in sentiment.
Barclays analyst Balaji Prasad lowered the firm's price target on Organon to $25 from $28 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Post the 15% fall on the Q3 miss, the firm believes Organon's valuations have troughed. The analyst says the Microspherix settlement was better than expectations.
LMB +4.07 to 34.01, nice move, wish I still had some shares ! Just 15 months ago this was a $5 stock !
TAST +.87 to 7.09, I traded out of the stock in the low $6's .... should have bought back in the low to mid $5's recently but I wasn't watching it anymore. Nice quarter - well ahead of analyst estimates.
LMB - true, I hadn't read the details .... adj EPS was about $0.45 excluding those one timers .... still a big earnings beat, but not as huge.
LMB (29.94) posts another great quarter on expanding margins - EPS of $0.61 crushed estimates for $0.32 - damn I sold this stock way too soon !
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/limbach-holdings-inc-announces-third-211000736.html
RCMT (19.10) reports EPS of $0.46 for Q3, up from $0.33 y/y. Pretax income was actually down 13% y/y, but a sharply lower tax rate (10% versus 27%) and 22% fewer shares o/s resulted in the 39% y/y EPS increase ..... CEO and CFO sound positive on Q4 -
Bradley Vizi, Executive Chairman of RCM Technologies, commented, “The cadence of our business continues to accelerate as we move through the year. As such, we expect the fourth quarter to be our strongest, and continue to be confident that the long-term outlook for RCM is bright.”
Kevin Miller, Chief Financial Officer of RCM Technologies, commented, “With our continued focus on return on equity, the productivity of our revenue improved in the third quarter of 2023, resulting in 180 basis points of gross margin improvement over the second quarter of 2023.”
JAZZ (128) reports a slight miss and guides inline with estimates -
briefing -
Jazz Pharma misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, guides FY23 revs in-line (128.24 -5.43) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $4.84 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $4.93; revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $972.14 mln vs the $968.41 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $18.15-$19.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $18.66 FactSet Consensus; sees FY23 revs of $3.75-$3.875 bln (from prior $3.725-$3.875 bln) vs. $3.83 bln FactSet Consensus.
EBIX -.97 to 4.68, down from a high of $38 just 3 months ago ! Evidently there was shenanigans going on and now the company is exploring "strategic alternatives" to meet debt obligations. I've owned it in the past, but it always seemed a bit shady.
AMRK -0.85 to 25.50, this is clearly another case of the stock dropping long before the bad news hit ..... it fell from $42 to $26 over the past 3 months on "no news" and then less than $1 this morning ..... so one way or another investors had already anticipated and priced in the big earnings miss. Damn, I wish I had figured out that this quarter would be bad !
fwiw, I sold about 50% of my position so far and am mulling over whether to sell more, but I don't agree with SSK that it deserves only a PE of 5 to 6 because of lumpy earnings. My concern is that earnings could continue to trend lower and tax loss selling will weigh on the stock regardless.
AMRK - the conference call mentions volatility in earnings and that they are doing better than the competition. Also acquisitions may be more opportunistic now when the market activity for precious metals is weak. The stock is cheap if earnings stabilize at this level ahead of an eventual rebound. My concern is that Dec Q2 will be even weaker than Q1, although they did mention in the prior call that Q1 is their seasonally weakest quarter. Also Gold prices spiked up recently due in part to the situation in Israel and Gaza but they are now trending back down so maybe that will stimulate demand. Depending on price I may sell to take the tax loss and will consider buying back in December if the stock gets too beat up. I think earnings will eventually rebound, but that may be a few quarters away .....
The CEO closed with this remark -
AMRK is a fairly volatile company as it relates to the lumpiness and choppiness of our earnings. And I think it's very important to look at our business and look at it over a year or two years.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4648920-mark-precious-metals-inc-amrk-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript
AMRK - thanks for those details. That declining gross margin trend is very concerning.
AMRK (26.35) that was a surprisingly big earnings miss, but evidently it leaked out because the stock action has been poor the past few weeks with the stock already down 37% from the summer high of $42+. They did not explain why the big miss in the PR, but presumably they'll provide some clarification in the conf call. I'll be interested in reading the transcript. I wonder if they're losing market share or is this just a transient business slowdown ? Will earnings rebound in Dec Q2 or will the results get even weaker ?
briefing -
A-Mark Precious Metals misses by $0.61, beats on revs (26.35 -0.83) :
Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.61 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 30.7% year/year to $2.48 bln vs the $2.1 bln FactSet Consensus.
Gold ounces sold in the three months ended September 30, 2023 decreased 21% to 495,000 ounces from 629,000 ounces for the three months ended September 30, 2022, and decreased 39% from 814,000 ounces for the three months ended June 30, 2023.
Silver ounces sold in the three months ended September 30, 2023 decreased 15% to 30.4 million ounces from 35.9 million ounces for the three months ended September 30, 2022, and decreased 33% from 45.3 million ounces for the three months ended June 30, 2023.
AAOI has had a nice run ahead of earnings, but it's a very volatile stock and could give back the recent gains quickly if the earnings and guidance don't meet elevated expectations. It will be interesting to see the report this Thursday after the bell.
Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend
07/13/23 11.48 07/18/23 7.56 -34.1% 4
07/18/23 7.56 07/19/23 9.38 24.1% 2
07/19/23 9.38 07/31/23 5.86 -37.5% 9
07/31/23 5.86 08/15/23 15.9 171.3% 12
08/15/23 15.9 08/18/23 11.85 -25.5% 4
08/18/23 11.85 08/24/23 16.26 37.2% 5
08/24/23 16.26 08/28/23 12.76 -21.5% 3
08/28/23 12.76 08/31/23 15.78 23.7% 4
08/31/23 15.78 09/13/23 8.82 -44.1% 9
09/13/23 8.82 10/02/23 11.68 32.4% 14
10/02/23 11.68 10/23/23 6.66 -43% 16
10/23/23 6.66 11/06/23 10.08 51.4% 11
ELAN (9.36) beats estimates - issues inline guidance for Q4 and FY23 - EPS of $1+ seems realistic for FY24 -
briefing -
Elanco Animal Health beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line (9.36 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.12; revenues rose 3.9% year/year to $1.07 bln vs the $1.04 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.07-0.13, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.10 FactSet Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $978 mln - $1.018 bln vs. $1.01 bln FactSet Consensus.
"Elanco delivered a strong third quarter across both pet health and farm animal, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS growth. Constant currency revenue growth of 5 percent was driven by accelerating contribution from innovation, stabilizing core volumes, price growth and improved market conditions in Europe. In constant currency, Pet Health grew 6% and Farm Animal grew 4%, enabled by our differentiated global omnichannel execution, strategic leverage of our diverse portfolio, and our enhanced capabilities and leadership," said Jeff Simmons, Elanco President and CEO. "Our innovation pipeline remains on track, with potential blockbuster products Credelio Quattro, Bovaer and our differentiated JAK inhibitor for canine dermatology, which upon approval will be known as Zenrelia, all on a path toward U.S. approval in the first half of 2024. We are also investing in important commercial capabilities and expanded share of voice to drive our current portfolio and expected launches in 2024."
GTEC +.21 to 3.01, ahead of the Q3 earnings, which based on history will be reported on about 11/20. Maybe it's due for another run ? Today's action is encouraging.
Nice call on taking profits Friday ..... a lot of last week's big winners are getting hit today.
SPX, RUT
True, the Russell fell back into the red YTD in the closing minutes ..... of course if one includes the roughly 1.6% dividend yield, then the total return is positive.
Russell had a great week but it remains a NOT so great year. Currently up a paltry 0.1% YTD, but at least it's out of the red.
Wow, that's a lot of selling ! I presume you think this week's rally has gone too far, too fast ???
SPX
Best week of the year for the S&P500 ..... bond yields are plunging .... the 10yr treasury was near 5% on Monday, now approaching 4.5%, an incredible drop in just 4 days. The market thinks an economic soft landing is becoming much more likely.
HASI +3.88 to 22.68 after a solid earnings report ..... I'm also out too cheap having hedged my entire position with $17.5 and $20 calls ..... oh well, hindsight perfect as usual, but a nice pick by you regardless.
KOP (37.40) beats estimates -
briefing -
Koppers Holdings beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS outlook, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance (37.40 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.32 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the two analyst estimate of $1.26; revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $550.4 mln vs the $555.75 mln two analyst estimate.
Co issues guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $4.35-4.55, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.46 two analyst estimate and vs $4.30-4.60 prior guidance; sees FY23 revs of $2.10 bln vs. $2.13 bln two analyst estimate.
Futures rise after weaker than expected October Jobs report -
briefing -
The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 59 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 109 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 150,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 175,000) following a revised increase of 297,000 in September (from 336,000). Nonfarm private payrolls rose 99,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 143,000) following a revised increase of 246,000 in September (from 263,000).
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a revised 0.3% increase in September (from 0.2%).
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%) from 3.8%.
The average workweek fell to 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3) from 34.4.