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TAST +1.62 to 7.84, yeah a golden opportunity missed .... I definitely would have picked up some shares in the low to mid $5's had I been watching it ..... just a few weeks ago it hit $5.28 but it was off my radar.
OGN -.48 to 11.79, you were wise to sell in the $14's, but this selloff to the $11's looks overdone to me .... it's now selling at just a 3.4x forward PE assuming earnings stabilize at this level .... of course, they have a lot of debt to deal with, so that could become problematic. Maybe tax loss selling will drive it down into the single digits by year end ? Is there a price you'd get back in after your 30 day tax loss restriction completes ?
Analysts still have rather lofty price targets -
fly -
Goldman Sachs downgraded Organon to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $16, down from $33. The company's Q3 results and management's commentary "included an agglomeration of issues," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while the Established Brands business again demonstrated resilience, disappointments were several, including sales misses across the portfolio, meaningful enough exposure to challenging economic and policy dynamics playing out in China, and a more modest than expected revenue opportunity for Hadlima. Goldman believes time and improved visibility will be needed to sustainably support a positive inflection in sentiment.
Barclays analyst Balaji Prasad lowered the firm's price target on Organon to $25 from $28 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Post the 15% fall on the Q3 miss, the firm believes Organon's valuations have troughed. The analyst says the Microspherix settlement was better than expectations.
LMB +4.07 to 34.01, nice move, wish I still had some shares ! Just 15 months ago this was a $5 stock !
TAST +.87 to 7.09, I traded out of the stock in the low $6's .... should have bought back in the low to mid $5's recently but I wasn't watching it anymore. Nice quarter - well ahead of analyst estimates.
LMB - true, I hadn't read the details .... adj EPS was about $0.45 excluding those one timers .... still a big earnings beat, but not as huge.
LMB (29.94) posts another great quarter on expanding margins - EPS of $0.61 crushed estimates for $0.32 - damn I sold this stock way too soon !
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/limbach-holdings-inc-announces-third-211000736.html
RCMT (19.10) reports EPS of $0.46 for Q3, up from $0.33 y/y. Pretax income was actually down 13% y/y, but a sharply lower tax rate (10% versus 27%) and 22% fewer shares o/s resulted in the 39% y/y EPS increase ..... CEO and CFO sound positive on Q4 -
Bradley Vizi, Executive Chairman of RCM Technologies, commented, “The cadence of our business continues to accelerate as we move through the year. As such, we expect the fourth quarter to be our strongest, and continue to be confident that the long-term outlook for RCM is bright.”
Kevin Miller, Chief Financial Officer of RCM Technologies, commented, “With our continued focus on return on equity, the productivity of our revenue improved in the third quarter of 2023, resulting in 180 basis points of gross margin improvement over the second quarter of 2023.”
JAZZ (128) reports a slight miss and guides inline with estimates -
briefing -
Jazz Pharma misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, guides FY23 revs in-line (128.24 -5.43) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $4.84 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $4.93; revenues rose 3.3% year/year to $972.14 mln vs the $968.41 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $18.15-$19.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $18.66 FactSet Consensus; sees FY23 revs of $3.75-$3.875 bln (from prior $3.725-$3.875 bln) vs. $3.83 bln FactSet Consensus.
EBIX -.97 to 4.68, down from a high of $38 just 3 months ago ! Evidently there was shenanigans going on and now the company is exploring "strategic alternatives" to meet debt obligations. I've owned it in the past, but it always seemed a bit shady.
AMRK -0.85 to 25.50, this is clearly another case of the stock dropping long before the bad news hit ..... it fell from $42 to $26 over the past 3 months on "no news" and then less than $1 this morning ..... so one way or another investors had already anticipated and priced in the big earnings miss. Damn, I wish I had figured out that this quarter would be bad !
fwiw, I sold about 50% of my position so far and am mulling over whether to sell more, but I don't agree with SSK that it deserves only a PE of 5 to 6 because of lumpy earnings. My concern is that earnings could continue to trend lower and tax loss selling will weigh on the stock regardless.
AMRK - the conference call mentions volatility in earnings and that they are doing better than the competition. Also acquisitions may be more opportunistic now when the market activity for precious metals is weak. The stock is cheap if earnings stabilize at this level ahead of an eventual rebound. My concern is that Dec Q2 will be even weaker than Q1, although they did mention in the prior call that Q1 is their seasonally weakest quarter. Also Gold prices spiked up recently due in part to the situation in Israel and Gaza but they are now trending back down so maybe that will stimulate demand. Depending on price I may sell to take the tax loss and will consider buying back in December if the stock gets too beat up. I think earnings will eventually rebound, but that may be a few quarters away .....
The CEO closed with this remark -
AMRK is a fairly volatile company as it relates to the lumpiness and choppiness of our earnings. And I think it's very important to look at our business and look at it over a year or two years.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4648920-mark-precious-metals-inc-amrk-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript
AMRK - thanks for those details. That declining gross margin trend is very concerning.
AMRK (26.35) that was a surprisingly big earnings miss, but evidently it leaked out because the stock action has been poor the past few weeks with the stock already down 37% from the summer high of $42+. They did not explain why the big miss in the PR, but presumably they'll provide some clarification in the conf call. I'll be interested in reading the transcript. I wonder if they're losing market share or is this just a transient business slowdown ? Will earnings rebound in Dec Q2 or will the results get even weaker ?
briefing -
A-Mark Precious Metals misses by $0.61, beats on revs (26.35 -0.83) :
Reports Q1 (Sep) earnings of $0.77 per share, $0.61 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 30.7% year/year to $2.48 bln vs the $2.1 bln FactSet Consensus.
Gold ounces sold in the three months ended September 30, 2023 decreased 21% to 495,000 ounces from 629,000 ounces for the three months ended September 30, 2022, and decreased 39% from 814,000 ounces for the three months ended June 30, 2023.
Silver ounces sold in the three months ended September 30, 2023 decreased 15% to 30.4 million ounces from 35.9 million ounces for the three months ended September 30, 2022, and decreased 33% from 45.3 million ounces for the three months ended June 30, 2023.
AAOI has had a nice run ahead of earnings, but it's a very volatile stock and could give back the recent gains quickly if the earnings and guidance don't meet elevated expectations. It will be interesting to see the report this Thursday after the bell.
Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend
07/13/23 11.48 07/18/23 7.56 -34.1% 4
07/18/23 7.56 07/19/23 9.38 24.1% 2
07/19/23 9.38 07/31/23 5.86 -37.5% 9
07/31/23 5.86 08/15/23 15.9 171.3% 12
08/15/23 15.9 08/18/23 11.85 -25.5% 4
08/18/23 11.85 08/24/23 16.26 37.2% 5
08/24/23 16.26 08/28/23 12.76 -21.5% 3
08/28/23 12.76 08/31/23 15.78 23.7% 4
08/31/23 15.78 09/13/23 8.82 -44.1% 9
09/13/23 8.82 10/02/23 11.68 32.4% 14
10/02/23 11.68 10/23/23 6.66 -43% 16
10/23/23 6.66 11/06/23 10.08 51.4% 11
ELAN (9.36) beats estimates - issues inline guidance for Q4 and FY23 - EPS of $1+ seems realistic for FY24 -
briefing -
Elanco Animal Health beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line, revs in-line (9.36 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.18 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.12; revenues rose 3.9% year/year to $1.07 bln vs the $1.04 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.07-0.13, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.10 FactSet Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $978 mln - $1.018 bln vs. $1.01 bln FactSet Consensus.
"Elanco delivered a strong third quarter across both pet health and farm animal, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS growth. Constant currency revenue growth of 5 percent was driven by accelerating contribution from innovation, stabilizing core volumes, price growth and improved market conditions in Europe. In constant currency, Pet Health grew 6% and Farm Animal grew 4%, enabled by our differentiated global omnichannel execution, strategic leverage of our diverse portfolio, and our enhanced capabilities and leadership," said Jeff Simmons, Elanco President and CEO. "Our innovation pipeline remains on track, with potential blockbuster products Credelio Quattro, Bovaer and our differentiated JAK inhibitor for canine dermatology, which upon approval will be known as Zenrelia, all on a path toward U.S. approval in the first half of 2024. We are also investing in important commercial capabilities and expanded share of voice to drive our current portfolio and expected launches in 2024."
GTEC +.21 to 3.01, ahead of the Q3 earnings, which based on history will be reported on about 11/20. Maybe it's due for another run ? Today's action is encouraging.
Nice call on taking profits Friday ..... a lot of last week's big winners are getting hit today.
SPX, RUT
True, the Russell fell back into the red YTD in the closing minutes ..... of course if one includes the roughly 1.6% dividend yield, then the total return is positive.
Russell had a great week but it remains a NOT so great year. Currently up a paltry 0.1% YTD, but at least it's out of the red.
Wow, that's a lot of selling ! I presume you think this week's rally has gone too far, too fast ???
SPX
Best week of the year for the S&P500 ..... bond yields are plunging .... the 10yr treasury was near 5% on Monday, now approaching 4.5%, an incredible drop in just 4 days. The market thinks an economic soft landing is becoming much more likely.
HASI +3.88 to 22.68 after a solid earnings report ..... I'm also out too cheap having hedged my entire position with $17.5 and $20 calls ..... oh well, hindsight perfect as usual, but a nice pick by you regardless.
KOP (37.40) beats estimates -
briefing -
Koppers Holdings beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS outlook, reaffirms FY23 revs guidance (37.40 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.32 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the two analyst estimate of $1.26; revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $550.4 mln vs the $555.75 mln two analyst estimate.
Co issues guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $4.35-4.55, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.46 two analyst estimate and vs $4.30-4.60 prior guidance; sees FY23 revs of $2.10 bln vs. $2.13 bln two analyst estimate.
Futures rise after weaker than expected October Jobs report -
briefing -
The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 59 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 109 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 150,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 175,000) following a revised increase of 297,000 in September (from 336,000). Nonfarm private payrolls rose 99,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 143,000) following a revised increase of 246,000 in September (from 263,000).
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a revised 0.3% increase in September (from 0.2%).
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October (Briefing.com consensus 3.8%) from 3.8%.
The average workweek fell to 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3) from 34.4.
Not buying back any SPXS, but I did write a lot of covered calls today especially on my energy holdings ....
CPE, VTLE
S&P +74 to 4311, impressive rally !
briefing -
Stocks are having a strong showing today, helped by falling interest rates, positive earnings news, and short covering activity. The major indices are trading up more than 1.0%, which has the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average (4,244) and oscillating around the 4,300 level.
The 10-yr note yield is down nine basis points from yesterday at 4.68%. It had been down as low as 4.63% earlier. The activity in Treasuries has been aided by some softening manufacturing PMI data out of the eurozone, the Bank of England's decision to keep its Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%, some short-covering activity in the Treasury market as well, and the Q3 productivity report showing a 0.8% decline unit labor costs.
Gains are broad based with 28 of the 30 Dow components trading up and ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors registering gains larger than 1.0%. The real estate (+3.4%) and energy (+2.4%) sectors lead the pack while the communication services sector (+0.7%) shows the slimmest gain.
Today's trade has been bolstered by the notion that the Fed could be done raising rates. That thinking has followed on the heels of remarks made yesterday by Fed Chair Powell at his press conference following the FOMC meeting.
A heavy batch of earnings news since yesterday's close has garnered mostly positive reactions, which has acted as additional support for stocks. Qualcomm (QCOM 117.45, +6.56, +5.9%), Eli Lilly (LLY 577.85, +23.65, +4.3%), and Starbucks (SBUX 101.41, +10.06, +11.0%) are winning standouts in that respect.
Meanwhile, Airbnb (ABNB 116.04, -3.34, -2.9%) and Moderna (MRNA 70.53, -5.69, -7.5%) are trading down after reporting earnings.
Another factor presumably working its way in today's trading mix is the seasonality factor. November, on average, has historically been the strongest month for the S&P 500 and marks the start of the best six month return period for the S&P 500.
Reviewing today's economic data:
Weekly Initial Claims 217K (Briefing.com consensus 214K); Prior was revised to 212K from 210K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.818 mln; Prior was revised to 1.783 mln from 1.709 mln
The key takeaway from the report is much the same, which is to say the low level of initial claims isn't consistent with a material weakening in the labor market.
Q3 Productivity-Prel 4.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.6%); Prior was revised to 3.6% from 3.5%; Q3 Unit Labor Costs-Prel -0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%); Prior was revised to 3.2% from 2.2%
The key takeaway from the report, other than the impressive uptick in productivity, is the decline in unit labor costs. It is a particularly timely piece of data, as it plays perfectly into the market's swelling expectation that moderating inflation pressures will keep the Fed from raising rates again.
September Factory Orders 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%); Prior was revised to 1.0% from 1.2%
The key takeaway from the report is that factory orders in September were boosted nicely by strength in transportation orders, but the increase wasn't just a transportation story.
GERN -.15 to 1.78, Geron is a super dilution machine .... I don't blame investors for being disgusted. FDA approval is not guaranteed.
OGN -.05 to 14.60 after missing estimates, but the stock is very cheap based on non-GAAP EPS ..... however there is a huge difference between GAAP and non-GAAP -
Your thoughts on the quarter ?
briefing -
Organon misses by $0.18, misses on revs; lowers FY23 revs below consensus (14.65 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.18 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $1.05; revenues fell 1.2% year/year to $1.52 bln vs the $1.57 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues lowered guidance for FY23, sees FY23 revs of $6.15-6.25 bln from $6.25-6.45 bln vs. $6.31 bln FactSet Consensus.
SBOW (33.48) Q3 looks solid with production up significantly y/y and an acquisition pending. Untaxed EPS came in at $2.13 when adjusting out the future period mark to market hedging losses, a bit less than the $2.27 analyst consensus estimate. However oil prices have been in decline recently, down from $90 to $80/bbl in the past 2 weeks. The futures market has price trending lower, $75 going a year out .... so that's a negative.
PYPL (51.66) reports Q3 adj EPS of $1.30, beating estimates for $1.23 ..... looks like a decent quarter especially when considering how beaten down the stock is .... even so it's up only 2% after hours. They did issue slightly downside Q4 guidance, so that may be hindering the rally.
https://investor.pypl.com/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/PYPL-Q3-23-Investor-Update.pdf
OGN and PYPL are the top 2 holdings in your managed portfolio at last report. I guess your personal holdings have a lower weighting of PYPL ?
PYPL reports after the bell and OGN tomorrow morning ..... these stocks have been very weak. We'll soon find out whether it's deserved or not. I have small positions in both.
SPXS - just sold my entire position for a 17% gain ..... I think this correction has run its course and seasonally we're entering the strongest consecutive 3 month period of the year - Nov through Jan.
PERI (25.40) posts a nice earnings beat with Q3 adj EPS of $0.84 .... might be a buy at this price level, down 41% from the April 52wk high of 42.75.
briefing -
Perion Network beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 revs guidance (25.40 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.84 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.74; revenues rose 16.8% year/year to $185.3 mln vs the $184.36 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY23, sees FY23 revs of $730-$750 mln vs. $741.29 mln FactSet Consensus. Adj. EBITDA of $167+ mln.
AMRK -.11 to 27.15, looks like a bargain at 52wk lows after the strong June Q4 earnings. Gold prices have been strong, around $2000/oz, and that should stimulate trading. I added some shares today and look forward to seeing the Q1 report on 11/7.
GC
Wade - NVDA - are you taking a starter position today ?
NVDA -9 to 402 as China restriction concerns mount - next year's earnings estimates could be coming down.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidias-5-billion-of-china-orders-in-limbo-after-latest-u-s-curbs-1928f399?st=0dtkacd80xlbkkh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
TSLA -10 to 197, deserves to go lower after the disappointing Q3 numbers ..... gross margins are plunging and so is net income and EPS.
I'll be interested if the stock gets back to $100 where it was 10 months ago.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4644990-tesla-expecting-shares-down-to-double-digits-by-end-of-2024
briefing -
Tesla misses by $0.07, misses on revs, gross margin down 30 bps qtr/qtr, reaffirms FY23 production outlook of 1.8 mln vehicles, says Cybertruck deliveries remain on track for later this year (242.68 -12.17) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.66 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.73; revenues rose 8.8% year/year to $23.35 bln vs the $24.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
GAAP gross margin of 17.9%, down 719 bps yr/yr and down 30 bps qtr/qtr.
Deliveries of 435,059, up 27% yr/yr.
Operating income decreased yr/yr to $1.8 bln, primarily impacted by reduced ASP due to pricing and mix, increase in operating expenses driven by Cybertruck, AI and other R&D projects, and cost of production ramp and idle cost related to factory upgrades.
Outlook: Reaffirms production guidance for 2023, expects to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year.
Cybertruck: TSLA says deliveries remain on track for later this year.
The Russell Microcap Index has been a disaster since it hit a relative performance peak against the S&P500 on 3/12/21 - in the 31 months since then the Microcap Index is down a stunning 42% while the S&P is up 6% (10% including dividends). There's a lot of junk in the Russell Small and Microcap Indexes.
Performance since March 12, 2021 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NDX 11% 14335.51 12937.29
$NYFANG 10% 7254.04 6582.57
$RLG 9% 2628.06 2421.75
$SPX 6% 4166.82 3943.34
$DJI 0% 32928.96 32778.64
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$DJT -2% 13826.69 14156.69
$DJU -3% 816.34 844.88
$COMP -4% 12789.48 13319.86
$RLV -5% 1428.94 1496.54
$SPXEW -5% 5467.52 5730.59
$MID -11% 2345.08 2646.34
$BTK -18% 4547.76 5547.85
$NBITR -23% 3930.94 5095.78
$SML -23% 1075.56 1397.66
$NBI -24% 3677.86 4864.31
$RUT -30% 1647.29 2352.79
$RUMIC -42% 579.81 991.28
$W5KMICRO-52% 10884.85 22682.4
AVERAGE RETURN = -11%
Just $3,000 per year may be applied to ordinary income, but all of it can be applied to capital gains ..... so if you have a big tax loss carryforward, that's big incentive to invest since the gains will be tax free until the carryforward is exhausted.