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CDEL has given him a break. He will be back soon after break posting in coordination with xxx, xxxx, xxxx, and you know who they are
CDEL has been acting as lead of the wolfpack recently
I said this on 21 Aug: "Although I don't like it I expect naked short wolfpack will start to cover, there is simply no any other way out.
For all the vulture hedges collectively, you are as pathetic as the naked short wolpack." in the post: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157793331
Now share price is up with significantly large volume compared to the past, indicating the short wolfpack is indeed covering, which I hated to see it's happening, more of preferring it happens when topline data is announced as I said multiple time in the past.
Well be happy things come this way!
Now as the wolfpack is covering in a still "orderly" manner, we only need some fuel in the already burning fire.
If only Linda's financiers either true friends of the company or those vultures can put some money in the working buying in the open market, that orderly manner will turn into what we have known as squeeze.
A $1 a share is in the reach very quickly before topline!
How could this trial (pivotal phase 3 DCVax-L for GBM) fail?
1) control arm outlives treatment arm? (very unlikely for GBM according to what have been known from literature and myriad of presentations from treating doctors);
2) No separation between control and treatment, and/or early and late (crossover) vaccinated patients? (very unlikely according to supposed mechanism of action of DCVax-L, and the suggestion of Dr. Linda Liau in her various presentations);
3) PFS messed up due to pseudo-progression? (may be true initially, but corrected after adjudication. More importantly, as the last patient in the trial lasts five years, PFS really doesn't matter anymore because it is just a surrogate for OS);
4) Treatment effects if any cannot be detected in a statistically significant way, ie, the p value being greater than 0.05? (may be likely due to crossover, but the efficacy can be backed up by comparing to similar external data and some immunogenetics data showing distinct immune-reactions before and after vaccination, etc.);
5) Not a pre-specified group or subgroup shows any statistically significant benefits? (very unlikely); and
6) All of the above or a combination of some of the above? (mostly unlikely)
A quick rough recap on what we have known today before unblinding:
1) mOS for all patients in the trial: about 23.1 months from surgery (compared to the standard of care: 14-17 months); and
2) One year mOS: 89.3 %; two year mOS: 46.4 %s; three year mOS: 28.2 % (based on 2018 updated data); and five year mOS: about 15-17% for all patients according to Les from his recent discussion (compared to standard of care which is about 5% at five years).
Conclusion: DCVax-L will be at least approved for treating GBM based on landmark long-term overall survivals (there are other ways for DCVax-L to get approved as well).
Feeling blessed and happy this morning, I also like to extend my kindness to the short wolfpack of which I has despised since its creation. Nonetheless they are human beings as well, maybe just got lost at an unfortunately time:
As of 19 August, all the trial data internal and external had been collected and datalock was pending on quality check and confirmation of only some external data currently acquired. [this is also Linda's creation, a new stuff for me as if nobody in the same condition never check quality LOL]
According to multiple news releases including the most recent one as of 19 Aug, it is expected to take a couple of weeks for statisticians to generate tables and curves, ie, data from locked database ready for topline data reporting.
As a matter of fact, anyone with brain knows that process can take a few hours or at best a couple of days to complete. [so seriously Linda what are you talking about?]
Seriously, someone may have already known what the unblinded data really looks like as of my typing now if data is already locked or someone may come to know the result a day or two after data is locked.
I find naked short wolfpack are numbed so are those who want to have a position before unblinding and results, which are both made to believe by the company they will not be available after TWO WEEKS OF STATISTICIAN WORKING ON IT, FOLLOWED BY TWO OR SEVERAL WEEKS OF CONSULTATION OF THE COMPANY WITH EXPERTS!
Don't know what is in Linda's mind with such timelines, but anything has a reason, so be it.
That's all Ladies and Gentlemen, short or long. Just watch. I guarantee it will be interesting to say the least. I like surprise particularly a very happy surprise!
Turn good news into "bad" news (damp any momentum by dumping a relatively large lot of shares into the market with lower price here or there opportunistically; because the so-called Linda friendlies are just a bunch of vulture hedges, like Bigger Capital, etc., they simply don't have either guts or resources to make the market, so the naked short wolfpack is easy to control and manipulate the market)
BTW, that's all Linda's choice for a bunch of small vulture hedges as her financiers because she can control them easily; I am afraid she doesn't like financiers like Neil or the Baker Brothers at this time because she may find it hard to control.
So at the time being, if the market reacts to any good news as it were a bad news, then the evidence is herewith in that the wolfpack is well and alive. They are still trapped, which will be extremely good for share price when a substantially good news comes out.
These pathetic wolfpack can only manipulate the market with a good news which is not substantially, and fundamentally earth-shaking like the ones we recently have within a month. So my prediction is that they will, even if not completely, unless they are retard
If they refuse to cover their butts, they are doomed.
Strong evidence naked short wolfpack is still on the hook and well and alive just as of today:
As usual, any good news led to lukewarm trading with pathetic volume as well. It has happened recently twice at least, as if Linda has no friend but foes who would do anything possible to dump her.
Unfortunately for naked short wolfpack, now it's a totally different ballgame: within a month or so, topline data will be revealed.
Based on what we have known, failure of the trial is nil.
Now I have to adjust my reserves on the day of burning short at much higher price.
Naked short wolfpack is just as stubborn as committed long. It will be a beautiful month or months to look forward to.
Although I don't like it I expect naked short wolfpack will start to cover, there is simply no any other way out.
For all the vulture hedges collectively, you are as pathetic as the naked short wolpack.
Added about 50k shares around 0.325
Short, knee jerking long and vulture hedges are collectively amazing
Stomp the apparent uptrend rooted from outright good news happened and in anticipation
LOL see you at the finish line in a month!
Made one half million dollar to add to the fire of short burning when topline data are announced
Bring on shorts, vulture hedges and knee jerking longs (I don't think you guys can hold for a week; maybe crack late today)
Enough money to get us into early next year with today's loan of $5.5 million on top of last weeks 8 million.
There will be no financing, further dilution for a long while
No more vulture hedges awaiting at Linda's door; if shares are wanted, please buy in the open market
Let's start counting the time until next news
Data lock
Topline data
Initiate a new trial
A partnership deal
Covid-19 therapeutic vaccine trial -- this one is a jock of course
Something unknown at this time
Slow blood bleeding finally stopped. Anyone needs to play fair in the open market. Selling or buying it's all your decision!
Looking in the mirror scotty.
[funny I realized I replied to you. It's a first]
Very sorry to hear that Sir Pumpernickel.
May God give you strength and healing power to your friend!
An unknown short hedge cohort winked at Dr. Boockvar. Dr.Bookckvar went off script during his planned presentation, adding DCVax-L "essential failed," contradicting his own script.
AVII was noticed, who suddenly showed up in IHub revealing the news after a long disappearance, and immediately went to dormant again.
As a result, more than 6 million shares traded with the share price about a few cents down from the previous trading. Taking the advantage, I brought my pools of shares to new higher.
Shortly complains were lodged on to almighty Doc, and he was more than willingly to agree to pull his presentation offline.
Nonetheless, damage has been done and the mission has been accomplished.
Be aware things like this has happed in the past and it will be repeating.
Notice it was AVII who first revealed temporary screen halt occurred in Germany via his short friend who posted in IV; it was AVII who first revealed Dr. LL's controversial presentation after the screen halt imposed by FDA; and it was also AVII who first brought this board's attention to Dr. Woockvar's now offline presentation. Are all these coincidences?
In biotech world, one should always keep vigilance and be prepared to take advantage of events like this, because it will not be the last!
Honestly the company has recently provided more information than most other companies of the same size under the same conditions.
Most companies would only say they have reached the events required for completing the trials, and give an approximate time for topline data announcement, which usually ranges from 2 months to several months.
They then usually raise substantially a large sum of cash, much larger than we have experienced with nwbo, and go dark/quiet until the announcement. And usually bad news comes much earlier than expected, and vice versa.
That's all.
Yes you are right on one thing that nwbo management has repeatedly moved the goal posts, which is disappointing to say the least but I think anything has a reason.
If you has done your dd, and committed to investing in this company, you ought to lay your trust on the management, unless you think their interests are not in line with yours.
We all want to see a successful trial results, and as of today the target time for that is still in September.
Why not exercising a bit more of patience, and prepared yourself for possible bear raid or not or a smooth sailing whatever it will come.
Most people are not heavily invested, they want the share price as low as possible so they can cover (for shorts), start new positions, add substantially more shares, etc.
But the nwbo tree is hard to be shake, because of the fact of the known blinded data, unless the placebo or the standard of care arms outlive the historical standard of care patients in a large margin, or the treatment arms. For other cancer indications, it's likely or even very likely but for GBM it seems unlikely based on what we have known.
you said, "If I was long I would tell LP she needs to gag him. He does a better job than I do for the 'pack smile,"
You know I seldomly reply to posters like you but one or two exceptions sometimes make no harm.
Now my opinion: I think Les has been doing an excellent job by appearing in such "a low-end clown" radio show by conveying one simple data set that the top 100 patients have mOS about 5 years, and one or two side/"new" information.
Why that is so important because after the publication of blinded data only one updated blinded data was presented subsequently with increased survival data trend (well two points I should not say that is a trend, at least a trend needs three points)
Since then we have had no new update, even not a simple statement like such that indicates how many patients still live at a future specific time -- that makes me a bit unease in terms of my large existing investment and my intention to buy more.
So it's a big relief Les said/confirmed that top 100 patients had mOS about 5 years on 24 July, and then again last Friday.
As a result of his 24 July show, I have increased my position several times.
Investors regardless how committed need some fundamental insurance, either it's how top 100 perform or something else depending on individuals. It's the broken of information flow or "a substantially long quiet period" that make this investment journey tough, as least for me, and it's exactly the time when posters like you who can work the most effective to discourage investment.
So I very much appreciate what Les has said and I think he has been doing favor for our long-term investors, only whom can understand what exactly he has been saying.
Linda has a plan. In about a month, she will appear in national stage. Russ and Sully are lucky to have Les as of now.
You are absolutely right for one thing that he indeed does a better job than you do for the naked short "wolfpack."
[btw ex that 85% and 25% are not completely independent, they can overlap]
Glad Flipper you have detected the transformation of Smith over the years into a willing lapdog for big Ps. There are obvious tracks left with his each click on his keyboard.
Besides he is prepared the mass to be ready for a pathetic $1 initial stock price when the trial data is deemed successful, which is exactly what the wolfpack have instilled in message board for years.
Let that price be true I will get in huge willing to borrow money from banks to get in it really huge despite I will be rich enough even without buying one share more at that time.
He eventually gives up and give in. Life must be really tough for him.
MartyDg I think my statement is quite clear that I did think there is no delay or a significant delay, ie, DL happened, and we are in a quiet period waiting for topline data, otherwise, we should have had an update by now explaining why DL is delayed, because two long weeks have passed the date of their last estimate for data lock, which is around early July.
Shorts usually take advantage of uncertainty, some of it genuine and some of it they create, like the usual IDs working hard in this board. During a quiet period, speculation goes wild and rampant, making it an optimal time for shorts to manipulate, inject FUD, and lower share price without much resistance, since there are always also knee jerking longs selling along with shorts short selling manipulation.
Nothing has changed except it gets closer to topline data announcement.
For any shares sold, there are their buyer. Like many, I added shares, and prepared for adding more, particularly if such conditions happen when positive topline data is published, like share price below $2 with positive data.
It's always good to have some dry powder ready for situation like such.
It's coming. GL
[Again English comprehension: "notify all at the same time" means notify all investors or any ones who concern in one press release or SEC filing or any public form of notification -- so it will be at the same time anybody knows what happens, so the company will not face any potential lawsuit accusing them of giving preferential information to some while holding the same information from others. It's a common practice for any public traded company in dealing with such issues]
English comprehension, anders, refer to my previous post which explains what his words convey.
It's a perfect English, I don't know why it gets confused.
[done my posts today, GL]
If it is delayed, they will update. Yes, since it has not been delayed, why should they update us, let alone a significant delay?
Almost three weeks passed the day they said DL should happen, which in any definition is a significant delay, and the fact they have not updated us indicates IT IS NOT DELAYED, AND IT HAPPENED AS PLANNED.
NEXT TOPLINE NEWS
LET SHORTS BE EMBOLDENED
THAT WE CAN BUY SHARES CHEAP
AND THAT WE CAN BURY THEM DEEPER WHEN THE TIME COMES!
Dave's response to one poster in this board:
Quote:
I am not sure why this is an issue. We have said for a long while that we will notify all at the same time when we have reached lock.
Hope that helps
Dave
end of Quote
I don't know why some here feel confused with regards to DL from Dave's response. From his response he clearly indicate the company will notify when DL WAS reached. It was completed, and he didn't promise the company would notify as soon as it happened.
So one way to notify us is a paragraph or a footnote in topline data news release, just mentioned when data lock had had happened.
As I have said all along it [DL] did happen, and next may indeed topline news.
WE ARE IN THE QUIET PERIOD! Buy shares as much as you can afford.
My last post for today: it's useless to debate/discuss what and how the company has said/promised and what the company should have done or should do regarding data lock. It's useless to confuse selves with various forms of data lock, even as the company has suggested/caused it, including soft lock, initial lock and hard lock.
The most important thing now is that the company will definitely doing its job to acquire topline data and the company will announces it shortly.
Give Linda a wiggle room. She may need it and it will be definitely doing our good in the end.
Trust me. Take a break if you are not going to buy more, and let the shorts be emboldened because they will pay dearly shortly.
Good luck to all!
My only recommendation to longs if I may is that one should have drawn a line where a successful trial is clearly marked with data:
My line to put it simple is this: judged by risk/benefit ratio the FDA ponders when it makes decision on approve or not approve a drug or a biological agent or something in between, DCVax-L trial will be successful as long as there is demonstrated separations between either of the standard care arm and the treatment arm, the early and later vaccined arms, the intended to treat patients and comparable historical standard care data (as FDA's recent guideline suggests), specified patient groups with clearly specified biomarks as we already know DCVax-L is safe.
Nobody should or dare to decline to approval a vaccine which is SAFE and somewhat effective, having a good quality of life indication, and tailored for self treatment from one's own cell, let alone I strongly believe DCVax-L trial will show strong treatment effects.
so that to draw another line of trading/investment/buy or sell when topline data is announced: a line marked by reasonable market cap, either it is 3 billions or 20 billions, a line where below it it's time to buy regardless what the share price will be and believe it will be temporary, and the market will live to its law to reflect a rational and reasonable share price (market cap to be exact).
The shorts have put our lives in misery for so long and more importantly have potentially harm so many patients on their track of destruction, when the time comes, we ought to grab/compete away as many as possible shares from the terrified shorts mouths, and let them pay.
Now I am going to buy again as the board turned negative for a couple of days when longs are just waiting for something news worthy to release from the company.
All the usual wolfpack IDs became active in recent days, including the pathetic last Sunday when the usual identifiable IDs were hard in working in message board. It's a sign.
Now that Linda has shown her hand -- the multiple self-rewarded Form 4s for their hardworking of the last several years while stock price has been manipulated by short sell, and the market cap now sit at the low 250 million level.
When Linda finally showed her hand, it means the trial data is destined to be locked, and topline comes shortly in a couple of weeks if not less.
I believe the blended data today is at least as good as that we saw in 2017 and again in 2018; the likelihood of the placebo/later vaccined arm outperforms the treatment/the early vaccined arm is low based on what we have known about the disease GBM and the various failed trials and the Optune trial, etc.
Today's buying is a knowledge based risk taking mini exercise, ready for significant grabbing shares from the shorts when topline data is announced. I am pretty sure this scenario will happen as the price will still be very much suppressed then judged by some longs' knee jerking actions and too many swing traders waiting on the sideline.
Now it's action time.
[Lawyers are good when it comes to eventuality for a company. Linda and Les maybe despised for their failure to maintain/support a reasonable share price, but when all things are done, they will be much more worthy in share price, either at buyout or partnership!]
[And they will be remembered by their resolve/dexterity/"deception" to bring a "failed" trial into a hugely successful trial. No other non-lawyers run companies will success in our situations!]
[One more buying sign: the share flipping has stopped from option/warrant holders]
All signs and feels and indications point to the empirical fact that we are currently in the quiet period, forget whether the trial has been soft or hard locked, meaning the next announcement will well be topline data.
Yet the stock behaves like we are waiting for some kind of data lock and then a few more weeks of time until topline data are ready for announcement.
Shorts are successfully fooling some long investors, and importantly themselves.
Low volume and range bound trading around $0.35.
The big battle ahead after topline data announcement is what should be the support for the long suppressed stock price.
Shorts like it to be one or two bucks, while longs want it to be much much higher.
I believe Les and Dave have been working on this front frantically for some time now, and we will be seeing if they are competent.
I have funds ready to get more and big when it happens.
Since the announcement that the company is proceeding with data lock, etc.
Read carefully or you just waste my post to reply.
BTW to anyone who read this board, it's a dream to wait if you want to get additional shares or start a new position hoping the price will drop from here in the 0.35-0.36 range.
The reason is simple, 1) topline is ahead, a week or a month or two doesn't matter, and 2) we are cheap at a market cap of around 250 million
BTW2, as I have said previously, I would like Linda to surprise the market
It is supposed to be that we are in a quiet period if we are an average small biotech approaching a binary event -- a pivotal phase 3 trial revelation of topline data.
Usually, a company would announce it has reached the threshold, either a required event count or some other pre-specified cutoff rate/ratio/number, then the company would normally have a significant fund raise with a friendly backer, cause nobody would be assure the outcome, and better be prepared for either any possible unpleasant outcome or positive outcome with money on hand, for flexibility in either direction heading towards collapse or FDA approval. After the fund raise, the company would go dark until topline, which ranging from two months to several months (usually three months maximal actually).
Judged by the practice of an average company, we are deep into the quiet period. Regardless whether the company has promised to announce data lock or not, really we are now in the deep quiet period. Unless the company wants to raise fund with the help of data lock announcement, we should hear nothing until topline data.
Any days pass by without news is a good news. It's positive we have not had a significant fund raise yet, and it's positive we have not heard of any other trials, as either backing or distraction -- a common practice of an average small biotech facing such a binary event.
So let's count days that have passed as of today.
I am heading in that direction Sojourner. thanks. Except just don't want to do fasting yet. All seem good at the present. Can easily swim 2 -3 miles, and play tennis games 2 ~ 3 hours non-stop.
Enjoying walking and hiking but need to increase intensity.
Look forward to the weeks ahead.
Thanks flipper for your recommendation and personal experience.
Already practiced these in principle for over a year with less intensity though than recommended: probably only 3,000 to 6,000 steps a day, heavy swimming two or three times a week, occasional weightlifting, hiking, etc.
My blood pressure dropped, but weight remains in an undesirable level after an initial drop somewhat. Don't want to punish myself for not eating delicious foods, particularly meat with some fat. So it's no dieting for me except consuming less amount. That explain it's hard for me to chop a few more pound, which I accept at the time being, unless I increase exercising intensity and/or go on a diet.
My experience/observation of myself that drinking helps gaining weight, particularly in the waist, seems contrary to popular belief.
Maybe people are really different on this matter.
Both your's and Longfellow's terms touch a fraction of it. Thanks.
I do like the peacock dance you attached, and the nice words from Longfellow [in brackets].
I also very much like my "peacock dancing" days with vigor, valor and youthfulness.
Life is good, young or old. Had had a dream of buying out all the shares and seeing the price going up into the blue sky.
Suggesting I am still damned young.
I also added measly 10k shares at $0.371 per share this morning. Was intended to buy more on seeing it dropped to around $0.365, and gave it up when the price was back up again.
I had had too many shares but just hated to see it went down unexceptionably at this inflection point.
Someone please comes up with an appropriate term for my action/behavior, like some kind of a syndrome, and I may print out and hung on the wall just behind my main computer.
There should be a lot of liquidity available now in the general market after quarter end rebalancing and profit taking due to gloomy outlook resulted in surging Covid-19 in the US.
If only a tiny part of this liquidity comes to nwbo, we will fly sooner than expected.
GLTA!
New found alliance? LOL we knew it century ago.
At $0.37 per share, and a roughly $260 million MC today. Is this not cheap enough?
Now looking forward
Data lock by end of next week
Topline data by end of next month
By a margin, you are free to move around these goal posts some days further. Regardless, there will be a rude awakening for a lot of heads when all are done soon.
The blinded data just need to be confirmed to be equally good if not better. Then
FDA has no way but to usher in a new age of how cancers will be treated with a new generation, paradigm shift immunotherapeutic cancer vaccines spearheaded by Northwest Bio's DCvax platform.
There is a risk of course, but it is worthy of taking. Many still have the pipe dream to get in cheap when things turn out to be what expected with regard to trial data.
At this point, the usual fearmongers like dilution, financing, and the like don't work any more.
It's appalled that the comprehension and cognition of some posters in this board are so unexplainably low evidenced by their confusion between soft lock and hard lock.
For God sake, the soft lock discussed by the company is such a lock that can yield topline data based on all the critic data necessary, even without some additional data, which may be important but not critic -- the kind of soft data lock meant and mentioned by the company.
So whenever these data sets which are not available at the lock become available, they will be incorporated back the database and locked -- therefore resulting in hard data lock thereafter.
It means the kind of soft data lock even used by the company will not hinder the process to have topline data in a timely manner.
BTW, in modern clinical trials, it has become a common practice for a sponsor company to have a quarterly data lock (soft lock) to be able to analyze data on a quarterly basis and then make timely and knowleged decision on how the underlying trial should proceed. Please don't fall in the trap of the wolfpack, fudsters, and the like.
Sometimes I think some people just don't spend time to read but eager to post. Are those people real investors?
Right the company has not burdened itself for announcing DL, hard or soft, only committed update if the company has missed its estimated DL in a significant way. As for Topline data, no commitment yet as it is conditioned on DL.
So it is very likely the company may not publish its DL despite contrary to some posters who have reported otherwise from their communications with DI.
As a result, any day passes without news may not be a bad news, and particularly any day passes without news after July may be a good sign, or an indicative of a positive TL data readout.
No post left for me today. GLTA!
Yes you are right Sharkee2, and I will not bother.
Although I asked those Qs to this board, I had had the answers if not all in the form of my humble opinions of course.
So I don't think Linda by any means is incompetent, but greedy maybe; I think the communications as it has been over the years and now is intentional, thinking it's good for the company overall, which can only be understood in the future.
She has to be sneaky and hold things tight to her chest as she has only this chance, to either die or prosper.
If she can get it right this time for DCVax-L, all will forgiven and what will be said about is her valor, and her and ours victorious human endeavor in conquering the deadliest cancers with a huge return of capitals invested.
So regardless at least waiting!
If I think any message chatter has any impact on share price then I should not post this before I load some more shares this afternoon. No I don't. Here it goes:
After years upon years over-promise & under-deliver does she learn a thing or two? Why hasn't she used a cushion in her timeline estimation yet, as that is any human alive will do in forecasting timeline? Or is there something else besides the German tax issue, and damned Covid-19?
Is it the culprit that Linda fails to slit the pot for the deserved employees and consultants and anyone signed for it, which seems very unlikely as Linda always has had the power of a dictator so no one dares to say no?
Additionally, what happens to twice delayed DL and Topline Data timeline? Besides the excuses specified by the company, again is there something else that hinders.
Could the culprit really be something about/on Dr. Duffy who left the company during the quarter after a short stint of a frigging 7-month employment with the company when the long-delayed SAP was finally successfully complete? Is it really some sort of an agreement or consensus or MoU that was materialized during the quarter between NWBO and MRK that is the culprit for still yet to be delivered 10Q and data timeline, so that dragging a bit longer may solve the problem?
And is the agreement or MoU contingent or simply conditioned on what will be the results of the topline data? Should the company just go ahead to file 10Q while ignoring the existence of such an agreement or MoU, and acknowledge its pre-existence afterward?
Can the filing of 10Q now hinder the on-going negotiation if indeed existing between the two companies over some more concrete or specific terms on top of the MoU as topline data are almost on hand? Should such a negotiation better limit to only Linda and/or Les in NWBO's side, and in order to do that Ms. Davis better relinquished her role as CFO to Linda?
As of today, longs have been frigging long the stock multiple years if not longer, and have done their DDs and fortified regardless so that waiting for the topline data is the only game despite seemingly setbacks.
On the other hand, there are definite signs of cracks that have emerged on the other side of the bet, which seeing share price suddenly spiked from about 0.16 to over 0.40 in days, then coming back down a bit, during which time most if not all of the set to expire warrants seem to have exercised from those unfriendly who have repeatedly shorted the stock, got cheaper shares in expected financing deals repeatedly over the years, with newly issued warrants as their hedges.
Sniff dogs are out, SEC is burdened, the delinquent report is still delinquent, and the fulfillment of data timelines has yet to report.
What gives? Is Linda Powers really inferior to a street Joe in forecasting and doing her job, or is she a grandmaster chess player?
Even a Broken Clock Is Right Twice a Day
DATA LOCK -- IMMINENT
TOPLINE DATA -- WITHIN A MONTH!
For an ordinary clock, more to come.
Excerpt from company June 2 PR:
"In light of the current status of the completion process, and the experience over recent months, the Company currently anticipates that the process may be completed by about mid-June or shortly thereafter –" and
"The timing of such processes cannot be predicted with precision even in normal times, and especially not in the current unprecedented circumstances. However, the Company and the independent service firms that are carrying out these processes are committed to proceeding quickly. If the anticipated timing becomes significantly different than currently anticipated, the Company plans to provide additional update bulletins."
They are still on track as of today.
[Again not intended in reply to 2H2]
The projected Goals were posted just two weeks ago, The paint has yet to dry. So don't go astray and stay in course:
Data lock imminent
Topline data within a month
In the meantime, the stock, though appreciated substantially from $0.17 to $0.37 in the past month, is as cheap as a mopping cloth judged by the market potential of the underlying DCVax Platform, and the meager market cap of nwbo now well below $300 million.
If topline data are positive, the projected market cap would be tens or twenties of billion -- an equivalence of share price of $10 - $20 per piece.
All Quiet on the Western Front
[not intended as a reply to pphmlover]
tryn2 My statement is based on the situation we are in now, low share price in relation to the relatively low market cap.
I guess it mostly will depend on market cap. If share price is overly depressed as of it's today, the price will definitely overshoot when positive topline data are announced; on the other hand, if share price appreciates substantially with the waiting period up to topline data announcement, it may and may not have an overshoot, all depending on what market cap one would expect on what results of the topline data will be.
It's very hard or almost impossible to predict exactly how the price movement would be in general considering there are other myriad factors in play as well.
I recalled DNDN's share price crashed in a short period of time, I remembered in that morning when the company announced its confirmatory second p3 trial results, and the results are positive. I was stun seeing the positive results and the crashed share price, but believed it was a major short attack manipulation after some search in the Internet for potentially missed negative news, which was none.
So one would never know and the fact is that anything could happen. Nonetheless, one can certainly predict the general trend. In our case, if the trial results are what we expect, the share price would be heading in a course of major appreciation or correction, but the road ahead may not be as clear as we hope for. Regardless, the price will after a certain period of time correlate to a reasonable market cap.
So one should draw some lines of market cap expectations to weigh in on actions from time to time, either to add or unload some shares based on the changing situations and ones own risk tolerance level.
Just my two cents.
Jerry I know that's all you have got. Man you never change, neither your position whatever what that is.
The reckoning is coming after a long 10 to 12 years of getting the truth out for DCVax-L, that it will become a very effective treatment and SOC for GBM patients. Regardless what the past is, topline data within a month!
And that's not all because it will open the door for how all kinds of solid cancers will be treated in the future.
So count the days together with us long investors, and congratulate on us long investors in advance, because I know being a human after work Jerry you have run the numbers too based on published blended data sets.
I promise DCVax platform will not discriminate you in case you need it in the future, despite your past unfortunate dispositions, destructiveness and negativity against it.
We are humans Jerry and we ought to pardon you!
I think we are talking the same, with difference being that I think it's a common sense that nwbo should and ought to come up with a "completely new SAP" for an almost "completely new test matrix," which is not to test merely PFS, mOS/OSs as designed for a short-term (my 400m, 800m analogy run) test, but to also and most importantly test long-term OSs, such as landmark 3-, 4- and 5-year OSs (my marathon analogy).
So the previous SAP becomes irrelevant, and it must be rewritten. In a sense the current SAP should be regarded as it's an "original" SAP.
In many occasions, both Lindas and Bosch have said the trial has adaptable design, and I don't think it will be any difference otherwise since the trial will produce long-term data. If we indeed see around 20% 5-year survival rate the SAP must be able to capture and accommodate that in an undeniable way.
And I strongly believe FDA holds the same view too as it is evidenced in its March proposal, and our future BLA when submitted will be evaluated by FDA in a new way as it has proposed, because that's the only scientific way to measure it.
It is a common sense that the current SAP is the first.
If a trial is to test human strength in running, the initial test design of DCVax-L is to test 400m or 800m as it had been usually done with chemo drugs, an old fashion way, and an obsolete test matrix for immuno drugs/agents/vaccines that we have all well understood today. Now it's all known the best way to test/measure is to run a marathon instead -- a 42.2 km long running.
Today nobody thinks a good result of 400m or 800m run (test) would indicate/correlate a good result of a marathon run. So mOS in cancer vaccine test is obsolete and useless in measuring OS for cancer patients.
Nobody would think the measurement matrix (SAP in our case) for 400m and 800m running (tests) would be the same SAP (test measurements) for a 42.2 km long marathon run.
Therefore, there are no tweaks or tricks naturally in changing a matrix (SAP) initially designed for a short distance run (immuno test with chemo test measurement matrix) to a matrix (SAP) of a marathon run (immuno test).
So in my book, the current SAP is the first of its kind. I would not even call it revised, because nothing there need to be revised, and it's all pioneering, genuine and original.
And the wolfpack don't think that way, I believe FDA would think the same as I stated above.
BTW, today nwbo's market cap at the present is still below $250 million, and a share price per share of about $0.36.
Does it reflect its potential which will be known within a month?