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Big was relative to having zero.
2mln for ipci means a new shares offer
and look at COLL...to have an even bigger disappointment on how big Odidi failed !!
do nothing = total failure
they have to do somthing and asap ....but we (me, doog, wim, samsa) believe investing a big chunk of money to commercialize gluco would be a tremendous mistake instead of moving Podras ahead and get Regabating parnered.
simple, we can disagree, no problem
they could try to produce gluco and sell it via Amazon, but could imagine Odidi sitting at the table with Bezos, uh ? just kidding. LoL
yes, big players won't counter-react to IPCI, but to each other, crashing the little poor ipci. are you seeing TEVA, ENDO, MYLAN, MALLINCKRODT itself how bad are they performing the gneric space ? they are in a price war, usually not a nice environment to voluntarily get in.
and what doog said looks solid: just draw down a budget to have IPCI up and running selling gluco by itself: they would likely need to raise again money, reverse split to stay listed and...
...much worse...divert money from where the value is (or should be) = technology and put it where the money gets crushed (generics).
well...looking at it from an other point of view now...Odidi could really think of it...LoL
tilator,
do you really believe someone like Odidi would be able to set up a sales force, marketing strategy, distribution agreements, ultra low-cost production, face big player counter-reaction.... ??
and do you really believe that what above would be less risky than licensing out Rexista e Regabatin and using the upfront payment to develop Podras ?
Just thinking about IPCI going for a "solo" route on generics make me feel like I'm throwing up.
Sorry tilator, nothing personal, but even if you were right the IPCI management could make it to have us delisted in 6 months if they go that route.
I am 100% with you Samsa.
My exact thoughts
For super tiny ipci even a small sales internal organization would imply at least 12 months before hitting the market and a new shares dilution to finance the initial costs.
Ipci needs to concentrate on tech and NDAs via the licencing route. There stays the money.
Just having a look at big generics players performance should cause a big warning before considering any direct involvement. Usually price war destroys small players.
Jmho
Fred, It is very tricky. If I recall well once you select data, ttx dollars, you have the 4 drug typologies. Then if you click on quetiapine fumarate ER you get the different doses. Then select again by manufacturer.
Forgive if I am wrong, I am going by heart since I am home with my babies now.
MNK's hydrocodone and oxycodone sales were down 42% and 38%, respectively, from a year ago.
Here stays the opportunity for the smart one and the débâcle for the fool.
Generics are dead in terms of profitability. for the little IPCI they can still save the day but they better off sell them off and just concentrate (can they ?)on the NDA's and delivery tech.
Anything else is just short term survival
even worse is that this kind of game seems to be involving a very small Group of traders;
I wouldn't even call it a pump and dump, because when you have 100k $ of shares traded per day you just need to run your algo...and yes, putting some fake rumor here and there...but I believe it is not influencing anyone anymore
...just technical movments to trigger stop losses...just wash trading using 2 laptops. sad.
...with the company unable to step up in any way...redicoulous !
Based on this idea, where do you expect to be the hypotecial ratio between the two ?
And why according to your hypthesis should cerecor share price goes up and IPCI stay down ? I mean, which should be the logic behind ?
Thanks
We have to find the name of "consulting company" they payed a big amount of money to then have the filing incomplete.
there is more than something that doesn't add up; it will be very difficult to know the name of such a brilliant Advisor, but would bery useful to made some DD on them as well.
Samsa,
Shouldn't FDA feedbacks on drugs filing being considered as material?
I mean major communication, like CRL or requests that materially change the likely approval path?
I am referring to ANDAs. I believe Ipci has been hiding material info over the past years.
They don't even bother informing about a new filing and under which regulation (Ranexa).
Is this considered admissible from the duties to inform shareholders pint of view?
Let's kick them out of the BoD. Let's kick Odidi out of CEO position
Wimus,
I sadly agree; I contacted over the recent weeks, in order: Odidi, the BoD and mr Boyd (Armistice).
They should be put in the lab, nothing else, but as I understood the ownership' structure is such that they won't loose control.
We need a major force to make them step aside.
The more I stay invested and the more I feel like there is no light at the end of the tunnel.
I break even @2.75, that is like a dream now. If we get there in 12 months I fly away and never look back.
Sometimes some activist fund succeeds in creating a speculative upward pressure...that is my last hope: speculation, like one day or two of glory due to some news + the hedge fund crashing the shorts...and I am out.
Samsa, this doesn't add up:
"they have 2 to 3 years of trails, another year to file application"
you just wrote what I was thinking : Lyrica ER would have hit the market anyway before IPCI Regabatin.
So, form a logical point of view, Regabating was already dead in 2015.
I agree with everything else you expressed; I hate Odidi, he is just driving the company against a wall.
I just want my money back, I am the last of the bulls here.
doog, I don't really understand why Odidi doesn't get it; what's wrong about communication to your shareholders ?
ok, he is not able to speak properly, but hey, just a string..on day xy we progressed our patent xx, on day xy we received feedback, ...
I think this behaviour derives a psycological problem;
and question for Samsa: what about duties in terms of communication, not just wrong comm but fair information to shareholders as well ?.
About Regabatin, the idea I am getting is they are trying to have all the needed ground to present it as different from Lyrica, so that they can have an easier life in terms of patent infringiments. But, this is pure speculation on my side. Hope someone better skilled than me can help us.
Wimus,
do you seriously believe Rega is dead ?
Sure the recent Pfizer new Lyrica version is not a positive, although they didn't get the OK for fibromyalgia, but why DEAD ?
Doog made an excellent DD on the patents and looks like something is happening both on PODRAS side and Regabatin as well.
What is that "something" is very hard to desume, given the company decision to keep everything in the dark.
One of the few reasons I decided to wait some more as an IPCI investor is Regabatin; PODRAS being the second one and Rexista the other one.
ANDAs became worthless to my investment case, since I believe that just a sudden flow of 3-4 approvals in 3-4 months (=impossible) will cause a share price increase. The IPCI reputation won't change with generics.
IPCI will be playing its future (as a NASDAQ company) in the next 6 months and only a partnership for either Rega, Rexista or Podras could make things good.
JMHO
Sure Wim, jut wanted to know if a drug has been filed under one regulation or not...then I Know, sadly by experience, that IPCI will likely disappoint.
I am fat up of generics; if Odidi wasn't completely lost in his dreams he would just have to look at what is happening to generics specialists (TEVA, MYLAN, ENDO, ...they have been crushed).
So even a child would understand that you have to make the 2 NDAs up and running with a deep pocket partner and push your technology Platform.
but aside from repeating it in their useless comments to Q analysis they don't do it.
if we just stop for a moment and look back to the beginning of the year we clearly see that the company wasn't able to bring on anything but the Rexista disaster. 10 months now. they are run like a Taylor made suits boutique.
Correct Angelo, Bloomberg sales detail shows just one manufacturer.
2016 sales were around 973Mln $
YTD sales 802.4 Mln
we still don't know, thanks to those bunch of idiots running the company, if Ranexa filing falls under the new path requiring FDA to give a response within 10-12 months.
Two weeks after the offer and we are down 15%.
Please somebody try to wake up Odidi.
I wrote to the BoD, I wrote to Boyd... This stock is becoming a joke.
I believe the important aspect here is to remember that the lead compliant agaisnt IPCI will likely try to find a settlement (if there will be ground for it) aimed at corporate governance changes, as was the case for the example here reported.
This is what I stated from the beginning...there could be outcome which are not related to money damages.
Wimus, if only we could dig deeper and see the contract between IPCI and those consultants; how come they didn't think about Cat 2 and 3 studies ? And if the possibility to jump them was agreed with FDA then wasn't there the possibility for IPCI to sue or at least have leverage ? (as Samsa stated many time )
something deosn't add up.
on another note, reading the complete document "Management discussion and analysis" I found some other interesting points:
-Seroquel XR is also pending approval at Health Canada (any idea about the market size and competition there ?)
- there is another generic -Oleptro- pending approval, but with like 1mln mkt size ??!! Which is the logic behind this ?
- it is clearly stated they plan to advance PODRAS human trials
- about Regabatin "The FDA completed its review of the IND application and provided constructive input that we will use towards further development of the program".
- from the wording used for Keppra I believe it is dead, while they are still trying to have a partnerhip for Glucophage
Find out who they are
from the "Management discussion and analysis" - Q3
"Expenditures for R&D for the three months ended August 31, 2017 were higher by $665,654 compared to the three months ended August 31, 2016. The increase is primarily due to higher third party consulting fees associated with our preparation for the FDA Advisory Committee meeting in relation to our Oxycodone ER NDA filing."
Yes Odidi proved he is not skilled for CEO activities, but who the hell are those morons who took a LOT of money to get to a complete disaster at the AdComm ??
Short Interest as of 10/13/2017
After the big drop during the two final weeks of september, we substiantially remained at the same level in the two following weeks (shares short increased by 16.8K).
It is then confirmed the recent price action is the result of the usual gaming (dricing price down with washing techniques)
Holders' filing rules -
It is not my field, just asking for some contributions.
The 13g filed has in this box checked:
"Item 5. Ownership of Five Percent or Less of a Class.
If this statement is being filed to report the fact that as of the date hereof the reporting person has ceased to be the beneficial owner of more than five percent of the class of securities, check the following [X] "
It looks like the requirement to file was due to the level of ownership going below 5% (likely due to share price decline);
wasn't from the beginning Armistice required to file when they bought 5% ?
I believe (but I may be wrong) that the window time to file for initial non controlling ownership is 45days since the transaction. Usuually funds take until the last day. If this was the case then shares were bought on the open market and not as a part of the offering.
If instead we assum the purchase was part of the offering, then the other 2 mln shares offered are likely to have been subsribed to someone (isntitution ?) at least aligned with Armistice interests, otherwise wouldn't make much of a sense.
Any ideas?
Just using my almost dead brain battery power allocated to IPCI.
Armistice Capital main % of ownership held (% of total shares) - IPCI is 14th out of 61.
To be sure, it is not the importance/weight of single position within the fund.
CERECOR INC 61.4%
PERNIX THERAPEUTICS HOLD 29.1%
APRICUS BIOSCIENCES INC 11.3%
DYNATRONICS CORP 10.4%
NOVELION THERAPEUTICS INC 9.9%
AYTU BIOSCIENCE INC 9.6%
EYEGATE PHARMACEUTICALS 9.4%
ALIMERA SCIENCES INC 8.5%
OPHTHOTECH CORP 6.7%
DEPOMED INC 6.4%
TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC 5.2%
ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS INC 5.1%
ACTINIUM PHARMACEUTICALS INC 5%
INTELLIPHARMACEUTICS 4.7%
Of the mid-cap bio I found BlueBird Bio and Horizon Pharma
We now have an Hedge Fund on board.second main shareholder. To understand which the intention are and if he is also behind the recent capital raise.
We all saw that day two weeks ago where we had the feeling someone big was buying.
Boyd is director but also founder of Cercator.
Let's see the Odidis under pressure.
Do hope he is willing to increase and shake the company insideout.
many months ago I called for an activist. Now either is one of them or we will just be crashed.
Wimus, I am Learning by doing (a lot filters and back and forth). Seroquel I think I have now more stable data:
competitors in the QUETIAPINE FUMARATE ER(in this category I find the entire Mallinkrodt sales for Seroquel, so it is the subject of our interest):
in order - monthly sales - september
Accord (22.2Mln), Par (18.77Mln), Trupharma (8.57Mln), Mallinck (1.83Mln), AstraZeneca (440K), Lupin (302)
when I try to use the same filter for Focalin, I can find PAR sales, just under DEXMETHYLPHENIDATE HCL ER,
here we have in order - monthly sales - september
Sandoz 14.08Mln, Teva 12.22, Impax 7.59, Par 6.62, Mylan 4.01, Actavis 176K, repacker 0.9K
wimus, as I wrote in the message, those were condensated numbers (all versions).
To extrapolate ER,XR from standard release you have to do some work, downloading a spreadsheet and working around it, which I have no time to do it today. sorry.
KEPPRA had
Levetiracetam ER 2016 Sales: 249.9Mln
Keppra XR 2016 Sales: 102.99Mln
Respectively, 2017, ytd
ER 211.54Mln
XR 74Mln
Glucophage
Metphormin ER was 4.29Bln 2016 - 3.14Bln YTD
Glucophage XR was 7.04Mln 2016 - 5.05Mln YTD
but you also have under the same molecule GLUMETZA, FORTAMET, RIOMET
Angelo,
I confirm TRX dollars - september - PAR : 6.62Mln - 6.69MLn in august
YTD PAR 56.1Mln (by the sum of single months, there is no such a cumulative data). looks like there was some kind of ajustment ?
Angelo,
Seroquel XR - WEEKLY TRX COUNT MALLINCRODT: for 10/13: 768K
September Seroquel - MONTHLY TRX DOLLARS MALLINCRODT: 1.83Mln
Numbers...very condensated, sorry for that
Glucophage (in all its versions) list of players is like more than 30 for a total market of 11.36Bln in 2016, and 8.3Bln year to date.
Keppra (in all its versions) list is more than 30
for a total market of 3.4Bln in 2016, and 2.7Bln year to date.
Pristiq (in all its versions) list is 7
for a total market of 2.03Bln in 2016, and 1.05Bln year to date.
Lamictal (in all its versions) list is around 25
for a total market of 5Bln in 2016, and 3.94Bln year to date.
Ranexa (just one version) just 3
for a total market of 973Mln in 2016, and 802Mln year to date.
Seroquel (in all its versions) competitors number stand at 23.
Foclin (in all its versions) competitors 12
FOCALIN - TOTAL monthly TRX count: 340.36K sept - 347.85K aug
FOCALIN - PAR monthly TRX count: 24.99Ksept - 24.88K aug
FOCALIN - TOTAL monthly TRX count: 82.26Mln sept - 84.36Mln aug
dexmeth ER 44.68Mln sept - 45.12Mln aug
dexmeth 4.26Mln sept - 4.55Mln aug
focalin XR 32.7Mln sept - 34.03Mln aug
focalin 612K sept - 652.7K aug
FOCALIN - PAR monthly TRX dollars: 6.62Mln - 6.69Mln aug
FOCALIN - PAR weekly TRX dollars: 1.62Mln 10/13/2017 - 1.58Mln 10/06/2017
guys I'm in a hurry,
will post just the last two observations:
Seroquel - TOTAL monthly TRX count: 1.29Mln sept - 1.37Mln aug
Quetiap.fum. 1.17mln - 1.25Mln
Quetiap.fum.XR 83.75K - 87.66K
Seroquel XR 30.44K - 34.01K
Seroquel 4.39K - 4.83K
Seroquel - TOTAL monthly TRX Dollars: 588.29Mln sept - 682.24Mln aug
Quetiap.fum. 507.49mln - 538.68Mln
Quetiap.fum.XR 52.14Mln - 57.82Mln
Seroquel XR 25.55Mln - 28.46Mln
Seroquel 3.11Mln - 3.28Mln
Seroquel - weekly TRX DOLLARS MALLINCRODT: 533.87K 10/13/2017 - 526K 10/06/2017
from the table I am looking at it looks like during the week Mallinck was the ONLY ONE to score an increase in dollars amount
As I stated many times over the past weeks a new financing happening at current levels whould have just sent the share price lower and lower.
Now we have cash but about to be lacking NASDAQ compliance, just to give manipulators a new theme to be followed.
stop thinking about seroquel and focalin sales, company's inability to make any kind of pipeline progress is driving us to the ground. period.
I made my part as a shareholder, making my voice heard, hard and clear.
I am so disgusted.
Wimus,I strongly agree with you. Right now I just dream to breakeven, which would need the share price to go back before AdComm.
Odidi bet everything on Rexista, without a plan B, with stubbornness and zero business acumen.
I just want out without terrible losses...that is the best I hope
Now it looks very clear how it has much more weight the Odidi's disconnect with business needs than the company cash needs per se.
I believe he will understand it the hard way, likely to be very hard for us shareholders as well.
Tomorrow I will write to the BoD, hoping many of us will do the same.
Bank of Montreal reduced its position, as of 30th of Sept total shares were 178'163 (0.51%) down by 91'694 shares.
talk about institutionals...Odidi step down, pls
Samsa,
yes I like your expression "and go for the throat".
The man is just to full of himself.
I am in anger, and shocked about how many illogical actions the man has been taking and how they look
how can they write in q3 ER that they have cash until... and then raise the morning after ? Big overnight surprise ?
we thought he was frugal, but he raised two times at the worst possible timing ...just think to have a plan B in place, which says if AdComm is bad then you subscribe @ ..say 1.6 (when we were @ 2.80).
Maybe he was forced by the BoD ?
e-petition, private letter, ...anything useful to make them understand we are not waiting for Odidi to find time for IPCI instead of engaging in multiple different non-company activities.
the more (n of shares) we are the better
let's kick him out of the seat