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To WDDD investors,
Don't sweat the day to day. Impatient traders will come and go, driving the share price up and then back down again. But what you'll see is a general trend up until the Markman hearing. Also, be encouraged that WDDD will be supplying news between now and June 27, and that news will oftentimes be a catalyst for some great runs. Patience will pay.
How is that convincing? It is not as though EDVA has "un-picked" WDDD; he has simply pointed out BCYP in addition to WDDD. My question remains: with a market cap of 50 million, can you provide convincing evidence that it is justifiable and that the share price won't re-visit the .20-.25 range within the next couple months? The current price looks to me like it's based on hype, not data, and hype is a great way to get crushed. TIA
I've yet to see convincing evidence that this stock will not plummet back down to the .20-.25 range. Anyone else as to why this is a good investment at a 50 million market cap? I'm considering entering, but, to be honest, it appears the share price has more downside potential than upside at this point. Can anyone provide convincing evidence as to why an investor would want to buy in at these prices. I'd appreciate solid arguments rather than emotional ones which are usually based more on shareholders trying to get others to buy in so they can unload huge numbers of shares on them. TIA
90,000 for sale at .455. Who in the world is getting out at this price?
Thanks for the information you provided, LOL. Your conclusion is what I concluded too. The share price may go up, but it will be artificial, based on hype, and thus subject to crashing down overnight. Hope all goes well here for those invested; the market cap is too high for my blood.
Rain and anyone else interested in commenting,
How is the current share price justifiable? The market cap is already very high; is this sustainable or is this price reflective of hype which will be gone in a few days or couple weeks? It looks like it takes very little money to move it up, which means it will also take very little selling to move it right back down again. I'm thinking about starting a position, but with the Markman so far away and the market cap so high, I think this may drop back down to the high teens or 20's before then, and if it does I'll buy in. What are your thoughts on this?
Thanks in advance.
Seeking Alpha released EDVA's article
Prior Art In Focus In Activision Vs. Worlds Inc. Case
Apr 19 2013, 07:09 | about: ATVI, WDDD.OB
Disclosure: I am long WDDD.OB, VRNG. (More...)
In a case that may have wide ranging implications in the gaming industry, tiny Worlds Inc. (WDDD.OB) is suing industry behemoth Activision (ATVI) for infringing its patents related to the creation of a highly scalable "3D virtual World." This invention allows thousands of players to participate, seamlessly, in the popular and profitable games in suit, World of Warcraft and Call of Duty. What follows is a brief summary of how "prior art" (quick primer here) may play a determinative role in this case. For those of you familiar with the Vringo (VRNG) patent infringement case against Google (GOOG) and several other smaller defendants, you may recall how the Culliss, Bowman, Ryan and Rose (and later Lashkari) references made investors nervous that Judge Jackson would rule for Google's motion for summary judgment. Had that ruling gone Google's way, the case would have been decided in their favor.
Not surprisingly, Activision has alleged that World's patents are all invalid. In their pleadings to date on the question of invalidity, Activision argues that the inventions claimed in the five Worlds patents in suit (U.S. Patent Nos. 7,181,690, 7,493,558, 7,945,856, 8,082,501 and 8,145,998) do not qualify under the applicable statute pursuant to which the USPTO grants patents and are thus invalid. Activision claims, among other things, that the inventions are not "novel" and that they were obvious in light of prior art or to industry participants. ATVI also argues that various claims of the patents are invalid under 35 U.S.C. Section 112 because they do not adequately contain a written description of the invention claimed or the manner and process of making or using it, i.e. they fail to specify how the patent can be practiced.
ATVI's "First Supplemental Preliminary Invalidity Disclosure" of 12/20/12 contains a listing of the prior art that it believes is relevant. (Note that ATVI has reserved the right to update this information.) The table runs to about 8 pages of citations alleging "prior art" including patents, articles, "publicly known" software, postgraduate dissertations and so on. Most of the cited references allege anticipation and obviousness, except for 11 of them, which merely allege obviousness.
If a reference is cited for "anticipation" this means that the defendant believes that the reference by itself covers every independent claim in the patent(s) in suit and thus in and of itself is evidence of invalidity. If the reference is cited for "obviousness" it means that it is being cited to show that one or more elements in the claim were known to people skilled in the art. If the defendant can point to multiple references of "obviousness" that together cover all the independent claims in a patent, this too will serve as evidence of invalidity.
For investors such as my group, it is critical to begin to form an opinion of the prior art cited by the plaintiff (WDDD cited prior art to the USPTO examiner when it filed for its patents) as well as by the defendant (see above). Why do I say "begin to form an opinion" rather than "form an opinion"? For one thing, the prior art cited by the defendant is incomplete - it can be supplemented. Second, at this point we do not know exactly how the defendant intends to formulate its arguments about the prior art. (We only know which sources it is citing and generally why.) Third, the claims in the patents have not yet been construed. In other words, the judge has not yet determined what the words in the patents mean, so it is not yet possible to cite prior art references with certainty to cover claims whose meaning has not yet been nailed down.
The day of reckoning for claim construction is June 27th, the date of the Markman hearing, when the parties will each argue for the interpretation of the words used in the patent which best describe their position. Rough example: imagine you are charged with the crime of "carrying a dangerous, concealed weapon" and rather than go to court to defend yourself, you are allowed to send your attorney there a day in advance to argue about what these words mean and have the judge rule on them one way or the other. Your attorney goes to court and argues as follows: "carry" means you are holding it in your hand or in a sack; "dangerous" means that it could, used as intended, hurt somebody; "concealed" means that it cannot be "seen," and weapon means an "instrument that can readily be used for an act of violence." The judge agrees with your lawyer and rules in his favor. The next day your lawyer tells the prosecutor he is not going to plead you guilty because the gun was attached to your bicycle, in plain sight, and was not loaded.
The same game is being played here (and in patent cases everywhere) only with hundreds and thousands of words. Worlds and Activision will be asked which words they can agree on and the other key disputed words will get defined by the judge. When this occurs (we can observe the action at the Markman hearing and then we will get to read the judge's Markman ruling) the cake will be baked and arguing about what the patent claims mean is essentially over. It then becomes a matter of which side has the "goods" and can win at trial. This is why a very large percentage of patent cases settle between the Markman ruling and trial.
Our initial analysis (here) attempts to interpret what ATVI's preliminary invalidity disclosure tells us.
First, we get a sense of the sheer weight of the evidence, which ATVI is citing as prior art. This can seem pretty daunting until you look at, for example, the '998 patent and see that its listing of cited references takes up about 15 pages. When the party seeking a patent cites such references to a USPTO examiner, he or she is essentially saying "here, take a look at these references which are possibly relevant to your consideration of whether I should be awarded this patent." If the Patent Office then grants the patent "over" the cited references, the examiner (on behalf of the USPTO) has determined that the patent is novel and non-obvious despite such references to prior art. The patent seeker might omit a reference if it is determined that it is really not relevant, but more often will try to cite everything it can to avoid a third party arguing that something not disclosed to the USPTO would have changed the outcome.
What we have done to date is to narrowly focus on the differences between what ATVI has cited and what WDDD cited when it sought the patents.
Off the bat, we can say (again based on the current state of the pleadings) that there is a very high level of overlap between the prior art cited by Activision and the references cited to the Patent Office by Worlds, which may be viewed as favorable to Worlds. It is important to note that numerous references cited by the defense to a particular subject of prior art may be captured in fewer citations by the plaintiff on that same subject. In this case we are not convinced that additional citations to the same material add much, but you may decide for yourself.
Although the Markman hearing is not until June 27th we think the defendant's invalidity arguments are reasonably clear at this point. Next week the parties will begin filing claim construction pleadings wherein they will set forth their arguments about what the words in the patents mean. Just as was the case in my hypothetical above, once the Markman hearing is concluded, the chances of winning and losing will come into much sharper focus. When we began our review of the prior art, we thought that we would have had access to some of the claim construction pleadings given the timeline outlined by the court. However with scheduling dates extended, we will revisit our current prior art assessments sometime in May, and of course again after the Markman ruling.
Conclusion & takeaways:
1. The most recent patent disclosures by WDDD are more extensive than the prior art cited by ATVI. This is not unexpected because the standard for WDDD to disclose is "relevance' whereas ATVI cites prior art for the simple reason of purported legal significance.
2. We think that ATVI's "prior art" disclosures are unconvincing as evidence of "anticipation."
3. We cannot fully assess the strength of ATVI's obviousness evidence because that will require expert testimony of what one skilled in the art would have known. However, given that almost all of the citations for obviousness in Activision's preliminary invalidity challenges were cited by WDDD itself, we feel WDDD is in a strong position.
4. We were not at all persuaded by the arguments that ATVI made about failure by Worlds to describe the inventions and say how they were practiced. We give them an "A for effort" but we do not see how the patents, as a whole, failed to show how the inventions worked.
We have opined in the past about the market undervaluing Worlds. One of the first things my group does is to form a rough opinion on a range of value that may be attained with a successful patent prosecution. There are numerous other factors that I will cover in later articles, but in short, the market seems to have come to some recent recognition as to the value of the technology WDDD holds (judging by increased trading volume). Perhaps investors are more attuned to what a Markman hearing is and how it can change the face of a company overnight. With the share price at current levels, we continue to see considerable upside for investors in advance of June 27th.
Additional disclosure: This is a summary of Edva's preliminary invalidity analysis. The attorneys in the case will no doubt provide much more extensive insight and our aim is to provoke thought and further questioning. This preliminary analysis should not be relied upon in isolation to make any investment decision nor do we advocate that. Please do your own due diligence and/or consult with an investment advisor.
This article was sent to 3,023 people who get email alerts on ATVI.
What do you mean? Cautious in what way?
Anyone know why the selloff at the end of the day here? I mistakenly bought more shares at the beginning of the day (not very bright) thinking more people would be interested in WDDD prior to EDVA's article...boy was I wrong. Anyone know why the sales?
Folks,
Shareholders are footing the bill for this company, and are paying the salaries of Greg Dangler and Damon Barber. Therefore it is only right that since we're paying the tab, we be informed as to what is happening with the company and the share price. I've put in numerous calls to Ashley (the administrative assistant) to tell Greg or Damon to call me. Please do the same. It is high time the men whose salaries we've paid (through public offerings) and are paying inform us what in the world their plans are. Flood their telephone lines with calls until they speak to us about the current insanity in the share price. The long-term shareholder equity of which Mr. Barber spoke in the press-release yesterday is starting to look like a joke.
IR Contacts
Greg Dangler – VP Finance
1401 17th Street, Suite 1550
Denver, CO 80202
Tel - 303 990 8444
Fax - 303 990 8440
What in the world was that? Why all the selling?
It appears the major sellers and bid-whackers are about finished. Maybe we'll have a good day of hitting the ask and driving the price up.
Well, let's see how massive the sell-off is today. Hopefully it is not as brutal as yesterday!
Does anyone know an approximate time for the completion of the Definitive Feasibility Study? TIA
I sure don't understand this trading action. It appears that we'll be back in the high to mid 20's by the end of today or tomorrow. I'm still long on this stock, and consider it a great buy at these prices, but this is sure frustrating right now! Hope things turn around soon. Anyone trying to get in may want to wait for tomorrow...looks like it could gap down in the morning. I can't believe were not at $.60 with the news we got today.
By the way, I just sent a message to the company asking them a few questions:
1. Are you diluting the shares right now, selling them on the open market? (If so, that would explain the price action)
2. Do you intend to stay listed on the NASDAQ or do you plan to de-list to a lesser board (OTC)
3. If you plan to stay with the NASDAQ, do you plan to do a stock split to raise the price per share level to the minimum $1.00 per share or do you have some incredible financing lined up?
This is the 2nd time I have inquired about this information from their website; I'll let you know if they respond this time.
I think it will fill. In fact, as much as I would like it not to get that low, I think we may see .29 or .30 the end of today or tomorrow.
Yeah, I wondered if it was going to. It has filled most of the way but we'll see if it fills all the way. My instinct tells me it has already filled since within the past 2 weeks we traded at .33 and .34. If that is the case, then we are ready to go up now and have seen the bottom. That is my guess. Cheers.
How much is left in the .50's on level 2?
200,000 at .54 just went through! Get ready to rumble up!
Get ready folks. The news today was not the biggie; the big news will be the financing which they arrange. When that comes out people will be flocking in. And bear in mind when major investors come in there will be no warning...they will buy hundreds of thousands of shares before you even notice. Patience will pay off, but my guess is you won't even need that much patience...a couple weeks at most, or maybe a month.
For those who are looking to get in today, or increase your position, now is a great time to do that. Folks are bid-whacking like crazy yet, so if you put in an order on the bid, it will likely get filled. But keep in mind that by tomorrow, or Thursday at the latest, those wanting out will be out, and if you don't get your order filled today or tomorrow, you'll be chasing the ask. Today's a great day for buying, but when the massive selling dries up, people will be chasing.
For those of you yet in, sit back and enjoy the slow creep up. The restructuring news today just provided us a platform off which we can operate. As of now, we basically have a floor to stand on, both with the stock and with the company, and it is a very solidly built floor. Now we're going to see Damon Barber and company start building, and when they do, I think we'll be quite pleased with the company they build and the share price which will reflect it.
Looks like selling is drying up a bit. Should start moving up a little. Lotsa folks gonna be kicking themselves. Panic selling almost never pays off.
I agree; I just don't like to be overly optimistic. There must have been a lot of flippers and short term traders who accumulated shares in this thing. It will be quite interesting to watch the share price pop when the flippers and traders are done with their sell-off. I bet they'll be kicking themselves in the pants when major buyers start coming in after they've sold.
Get ready for a big push up; profit takers and those trying to get a quick flip are getting out now. If you wait a couple days, or like many of us a couple months, even years, you'll be glad you did! Institutions will come.
For those selling shares, don't sell too early. You'll be kicking yourself in the pants when this thing gets back above $1.00/share. Give it a couple days; with all the accumulation which took place, this thing is going to take off later on in the week. Rest assured Damon Barber is planning to stay listed with the NASDAQ; there are going to be huge buyers which bring this thing over $1.00. Watch and wait!
I don't know, but the terms of their severance and the restructuring which Damon Barber has been able to pull off are a great vote of confidence in the new management!
This great news of restructuring will now draw the attention of many companies looking to make a few additional dollars in the coming years. I would not be surprised if Prospect has already landed, though has yet to announce, companies putting up millions of dollars to fund this project. In any case, this appears to be a great place to put money in the long term. A share price of $3.00-$4.00 by the end of the year does not seem at all unattainable, and with more good news will be nearly inevitable. Cheers.
Prospect Global Completes Senior Debt Restructuring
2 hours 38 minutes ago - PR Newswire via Comtex
Prospect Global Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: PGRX) announced today the successful restructuring of its long-term debt with the Karlsson Group ("KG"), advancing its long-term plan to build a potash mine in the Holbrook Basin of Arizona.
Key highlights include:
-- Debt maturity extended to July 2015; interim principal payment of $30 million due January 2015
-- Interim payments to KG decreased to 10% of any capital raised after $10 million of capital raised (previously 40% of any capital raised)
-- Restructured $6.75 million Unsecured Notes from 3rd party to extend maturity dates, and reduced interim capital payments to 10% of any capital raised after $10 million of capital raised (previously 33% of any capital raised)
-- The Company is required to meet interim financing milestones to fund the continued development of the Holbrook Basin project
"We are very pleased with the outcome of our restructuring efforts," said Damon Barber, Prospect Global's President and Chief Executive Officer. "The restructuring of our debt marks a significant step forward for the company. Despite the recent volatility in our stock price, we believe that we are now well positioned to move forward in building long-term value for all shareholders."
Wait until tomorrow when everyone has had a chance to read it; and especially next week when he writes more! This is great stuff.
Small-Cap Specialists Brings Investors Full Research on Stocks With Fundamental Catalyst
2 hours 30 minutes ago - Marketwire via Comtex
Worlds Inc. (OTCQB: WDDD) is pursuing patent infringement litigation against Activision Blizzard, Inc. Worlds Inc. is an intellectual property developer and licensee of patents related to 3D online virtual worlds. The Company has a portfolio of 7 US patents for multi-server technology for 3D applications. The earliest of these patents issued on an application filed November 12, 1996. A provisional patent application, serial number 60/020,296, was filed on November 13, 1995. These patents are related to each other and disclose and claim systems and methods for enabling users to interact in a virtual space. Find out more on these patents and infringement litigation here: (copy and paste the following link to browser) http://bit.ly/OTCBBNewreports
For those looking to walk away from the stock after averaging down and being grossly underwater, I understand completely your wanting to walk away and sell for a rather large loss. However, if I were you, I'd recommend the following (only FWIW; discard my comments if you don't find them helpful):
1. Call the company and talk to Greg Dangler or Damon Barber; ask them hard questions and do not settle for little or no information:
Greg Dangler – VP Finance
1401 17th Street, Suite 1550
Denver, CO 80202
Tel - 303 990 8444
2. Consider that if you have lost nearly 70% of your initial investment, walking away now cements that loss, which is a tough blow. If good news comes out, your investment will be no loss at all and may even turn into a profit, and if bad news comes out your 70% loss may turn into an 80% loss. Isn't it worth waiting for news? If you're already down 70%, what's being down another 10% when the upside possibility would wipe out all your losses and likely provide you gains?
3. Karlsson doesn't want Prospect to fail. Period.
I write this for the sake of those underwater (which I am too!) because I would hate to see you walk away now only to have us receive huge news of restructuring within a month or two. Again, FWIW. These are my thoughts and the lens through which I am looking as I consider what to do myself.
I had a rather upbeat conversation with someone "in the know" at PGRX and their thought was three-fold:
1. The Karlsson project is legitmate; it is not at all a fraud, but is most certainly a good honest project aimed at producing a valuable, marketable commodity;
2. It is in the best interest of Karlsson Group to strike a deal with PGRX. Therefore, the individual believed some sort of restructuring agreement would be reached, though the person could not say for sure;
3. Patience is the key. The news is going to come out of nowhere, so the best place to be is "invested". There will be no indicators of a deal other than an announcement and an immediate and quick move in share price.
FWIW
Thanks for providing pertinent information; always appreciated.
For those unsure of why anyone should invest in this stock, in the short term it is for an initial bump in price once restructuring news and financing news are announced, respectively. In the long term, with a 2 billion contract available if they can fulfill it, Prospect has work already lined up if they get the potash out of the ground. Plenty of reasons to invest here, but don't expect to make money "flipping" this stock. There is almost no money in flipping this thing; news is what will drive this thing.
Not saying anything about why people dumped their shares. But I am saying that many people decide to dump their shares because they are not sure where the price will bottom out. Once they see the price has found a bottom, they might be inclined to re-invest. For those who sold at .8, buying in tomorrow at .3 will more than double their number of shares and with negotiations taking place and financing avenues being explored, any news on these, which I'm guessing will come fairly soon as I assume PGRX desires to stay on the NASDAQ and thus will need to bump back above $1.00/share fairly soon, will be a very great reason for sideline investors to jump in.
If, as someone has earlier mentioned, the 30-day wash rule is the reason many former investors have up to this point stayed out of the stock, then beginning tomorrow, and continuing on Friday and Monday, those investors will be able to re-invest their money in PGRX and be able to record their tax loss.
I'm not putting any hope in a flood of investors re-investing, but some may do it. FWIW.
Well said. I couldn't agree more. Thanks for stating the facts.
Everyone has to invest as is best for them. With that in mind, it may be helpful to understand that as we speak Damon Barber and Greg Dangler are sitting across the table from the Karlsson Group executives restructuring the nature of their financial relationship. They are in talks as we speak. It is very likely, then, that sometime next week or the week after, or sometime in the very near future, when those talks have ceased, that we receive the fruit of those talks via disseminated information. Those saying a "default" letter is just going to appear in the mailbox of Prospect don't know what they're talking about, and those who think the Karlsson Group doesn't have a dog in this fight don't know what they're talking about either. They are in active, face-to-face negotiations as we speak, and Karlsson has every reason to restructure their financial relationship with Prospect in order to allow Prospect to develop the mine. The Karlsson Group, then, is on our side, for if Prospect develops the mine, no one more than Karlsson will benefit financially. Now is a great time to be in PGRX! Get in while you can, if you can, and if you want to.
Get them while their cheap! Desperate seller getting out at a low price.