Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
IMO it looks like a shake-out. Over 1.2M shares at .019+ and only 50K at .0148 to .015.
Someone is trying to genertae some sales. Anyway you cut it, 1.2M+ shares at .019+ is a good day for JNSH and helps establish a higher base. GLTA!
Revs are looking very good this early in the FY. Hoping they can get more to the bottom line. GLTA!
Schneidku40,
Not bad, but you have to add a bit more negative emotion to your post if your going to compete with the 80-90% that post here.
Like you, I'm one of the minority that actually thinks Virtra has been doing a pretty good job.
Regards and Good Luck, Ray
ditka, Great Eagle,
Thank you both. I appreciate the feedback.
Regards, Ray
"As I said in my earlier post, in Dec they had completed 53 installations and by March 30th that number has swelled to 90+. Thats just Q1 and we are almost close to last year's total. I see that trend and future revenue from this as a BIG positive."
Great Eagle,
Do you or any other board members have a feel for the Revs/Earnings generated per charging station or pair of charging stations?
Thanks, Ray
"If it is not required why file it? - thought was obvious from PR on Annual Meeting."
Fisher49,
In my assessment you are correct; there are no reporting requirements for the Pinks. Since Virtra has filed an extension, I have to assume they are trying to satisfy reporting requirements for 2011 which would make them eligible for an OTCBB uplist. The 15 day extension is on top of the original due date or around 15Apr12. If they were on the OTCBB they would receive an "e" extension on their symbol after 15Apr12 until after they satisfied the reporting requirements.
AA working real hard to get through resistance at 10.24.
Another Chart Observation:
VTSI's RSI on the daily chart is at the lowest level since last September which was followed by some consolidation/accumalation before making 50%+ move higher.
The A/D indicator looks poised for another spike up with any close at or above 7. GLTA!
"I guess at least there isn't a huge amount of selling going on today?"
Despite best effort to generate some selling.
Shares in the 6s remain extremely difficult to get. Mid to high 7s appears to be the price to accumalate any significant position.
Thanks LEARNED,
I enjoy your posts and happy to see you posting here again.
I saw the inverted H&S also. IMO a break above the 50 DMA should run to the 40 week MA/200 DMA (low to mid 26). A move above that level should make 29 an easy target.
I like the longer-term prospects for NG and CHK:
- IMO, conflict in the Middle East is more likely than not later this spring/summer.
- Sooner or later the US has to take alternative energy serious; I think sooner.
- An Obama re-election (I'm republican but realist) will likely be bullish for NG stocks.
Regards, Ray
PS: Like you, I would like to see VTSI respond to chart patterns just once But likely not a reality until after an uplist.
For those that like looking at charts, take a look at the divergence between VTSI's RSI and Accumulation/Distribution (A/D).
I recognize charts don't mean much with pinks, but it is apparent to me that accumulation continues on all price weakness since mid-December.
For anyone interested, Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK), a natural gas play, is showing a similar chart pattern. There may be a 25% move coming in CHK near-term.
CHK chart shows the divergence on daily and weekly charts, and the VTSI divergence is most evident on the daily chart.
Disclosure: Do your own DD. I've been building long-term positions in VTSI and CHK so my tolerance for calling a near-term trade the wrong direction is high.
"Why does a 60 person company need so many VP's"
A cheap way to make someone feel important without the authority to actually be important. Every body is doing it, why not Virtra.
From the following link, "people ask for many things from a company: salary, bonus, stock options, span of control, and titles. Of those, title is by far the cheapest, so it makes sense to give the highest titles possible. The hierarchy should have Presidents, Chiefs, and Senior Executive Vice Presidents. If it makes people feel better, let them feel better. Titles cost nothing."
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/16/why-even-your-ultra-hip-startup-team-need-job-titles/
Twister,
It effectively rattles weak hands. By design or not???
Another run to .09 at this point could free up a few million shares. By design or not???
BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): IMO, minimal downside risk and significant upside potential. Revs have been growing steadily the last five years (2007 = $2.25M; 2008 = $2.91M; 2009 = $4.61M; 2010 = $6.59M; 2011 = ~$9.50M) and 2012 may be a double on the 2011 revs, or somewhere in the $18-$20M range. Virtually zero debt. Threat Fire patent with Virtual Range patent pending.
Despite blackout on sales in first quarter, they are apparently selling and installing systems per a couple of 3rd party press releases. The stock has been under steady accumulation, despite low volume for several months in the .07 to .09 range. It’s difficult to build a substantial position in this stock quickly. It took me over a year to accumulate about 560K with a dollar cost average just under .072.
Net margins have been pressured the last year or two as expected with the growth rate they have enjoyed, but are still holding near 20%. High profit margin “Other” sales grew substantially in 2011 and may continue as the population of installed core systems grows throughout the world.
Virtra is allegedly undergoing 2011 audits with the goal of uplisting to another exchange which would be very beneficial to the company visibility and S/P appreciation. There remain questions as to whether or not they are auditing 2010 records and speculation on when they may achieve reporting requirements that satisfy exchange uplisting. Virtra partnered with Miller Group in Nov11 as a strategic advisor and I suspect blackout is related to ongoing strategic planning/implementation. I also speculate that Miller Group has been establishing a significant core position over the last few months. I estimate that there has been 20M+ shares traded since Oct11 and may have afforded Miller the opportunity to accumulate a few million shares.
You will find a lot of negative sentiment regarding Virtra on the IHub board from investors that have had positions in many cases for several years. I understand the frustration, especially during a blackout period, but personally I have the patience to let what appears to be a good story (IMO) play out. I have experienced many blackout periods associated with small companies during 20+ years of personal investing and there has been a reoccurring theme; a blackout period with fundamentally challenged companies is usually a warning to get out quick; and blackout periods for companies enjoying strong growth and solid fundamentals usually result in very positive outcomes. The risk/reward in the case of Virtra is dependent on whether or not you believe the fundamentals they have been reporting is the tructh. I believe it is.
My back of the envelope fundamental analysis values the company at ~.12/share (assumes PE of 10 and a net margin of 20%) based on 2011 projected earnings. If they sustain the same growth rate in 2012 that they have enjoyed the last few years, P/S with a PE of 10 may be around .17/share. If the growth rate expands to the level (double 2011) Virtra publically disclosed previously, the share price could be .22+ with a PE of 10. If Virta manages to execute an uplisting and audited reporting, they could easily achieve a PE of 20-30, or stock price in the range of .45 to .66.
At some point Virtra needs to execute a successful reverse split to get the current share balance of ~159M shares down. IMO, the time to do that would be after an uplisting and price appreciation to the .45 to .66 range which would easily support a 10 or 20 to 1 reverse split and support the stock remaining in the $5 to $10+ range, even with a major pullback post-split.
Recommend you do your own research and risk assessment. Disclosure: I remain long and will likely continue to accumulate in the 6s or low 7 cent range. GLTY.
Thanks Teeroy,
Something tells me Virtra didn't want that sale to get out of the bag
Thanks for making the news.
"There are 5 jobs listed! (That's not Baker's job, it's a junior engineering position with 1-4 yrs experience.)"
Between recent hires and new job postings, it is apparent to me that Virtra is preparing for a large project with DoD that is linked to US Army PEOSTRI and/or Team Orlando. I hope it is Joint/Multi-service project, versus Army only.
Is there anyone in the Orlando area that can drop in on the “Team Orlando” on 30 March 2012 between 1300 and 1600. They will be hosting a Live Virtual Constructive Open House. An opportunity to see and share what is happening in the Department of Defense Live Virtual Constructive Modeling & Simulation arena. No fee and open to government, academia & industry. I think Virtra will be on display/demonstration at this event. If nothing else, it could provide some clarity on what Virtra is trying to achieve for DoD, US Army and other services. Below link applies.
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Live-Virtual-Constructive-Open-House.html?soid=1105849970551&aid=slDsQW93Hmw
"When they still had someone to do PR
What's with this new marketing guy? - last news a month ago, no social media activity - has minimal presence of his own - if you cannot promote yourself how respectable are you? - would love to see some of the new marketing programs in action
There has to be at least one corporate guy on this blog (Teeroy - could it be you?) - whomever that person is can you verify that people are still coming into work
Based on output from Marketing whatever it is costing us to fund that group it is too much if you ask me - or maybe the new advisors think the internet is a passing fad"
fisher49,
Give it a break already. I figured out you were with Miller Grp or someone else trying to accumulate weeks ago. I suspect Miller Grp, since you popped on the seen about 3 weeks after the Virtra/Miller arrangement was announced.
I do owe you a thank you though. I believe some of your "well timed" bashing enabled me to fill out my position.
Regards
"After giving it more thought, I have convinced myself that Miller WAS brought in to facilitate a buyout...."
Now we are on the same page. My previous note was not intended as a conspiracy theory or VTSI touting. Just my opinion on how it’s done with a small company like Virtra. This is easy money for Miller if they play the strategy right. Plus this type of strategy (whether buyout and/or stock appreciation) doesn't happen overnight. Miller only came on board a couple of months ago.
PS: I wasn't bashing you during RS proposal. Just felt the RS was necessary to get increased visibility. Like most, I didn't like the RS ratio that was proposed, but I was willing to except the risk of a significant drop in price since it was still early in my accumulation phase.
Contrary to many on this board, I've only been in to VTSI for a little over a year and my patients haven’t been worn thin.
Al and others,
I understand all the negative sentiment and it may just be the optimist in me, but I've seen what we are going through with VTSI over the last few months many times in the past with other stocks. If the positive strategic arrangements announced over the last few months are sincere (I believe they are) you can bet Miller is trying to accumulate and the sales releases, and other positive PR will be held close to the vest until the core investments are made.
With VTSI's historic low volume/visibility it will take Miller or any other investor quite a bit time to accumulate any substantial position. I've been accumulating for over a year and not by choice. And will be a buyer again if we see another dip in to the sixes. We may see a few more months of this before all the pieces are in place to move the stock price significantly.
If Virtra went public with their strategy months ahead of execution, their partner in strategy execution will never get the opportunity to fill the coffers. You can bet that won't happen, unless the Miller arrangement is a farce.
Pure speculation on my part, but I wouldn't be surprised if the selling in the sevens hasn't been coordinated as an effort to build inventory. The trading activity has been too structured the last several weeks appears to be getting managed IMO, but has failed to generate the significant selling volume desired. Therefore, this is slow going.
Good luck to all while I continue to exercise patience.
I have to agree regarding "someone is trying to make the chart look pretty". Without looking at the individual trades during the day, the chart is deceptive with anemic volume. The trades at the upper end of the range have been complete manipulation while someone unloads in the lower seven cent range. The only positive, is that someone else has been accumulating at the same price.
Manipulation or not, the chart is starting to look good by “casual” observation. The lows have been moving up and the pps, 50 day moving average (DMA) and 200 DMA are all sitting at .08. A breakout with volume from this level would be extremely bullish technically and could easily send the stock to new 52 week highs. Hopefully the recent positive news and trends have added a good bunch of potential investors on the sidelines. Who in typically fashion, will jump on board as the stock breaks out to new highs. Good luck to all longs and wishing all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
"BTW: Pat's post a couple back was right on the money..."
Ditto on Pat's post!
"what do you predict for the BAC open on Tues AM... or better yet
the trade range for the first 1/2 hour? Anybody else?"
I'm looking for the gap in the 7.04 to 7.05 range from 8/25 to get filled and then short term higher.
Critical Thinker,
Great post! I agree completely.
Regards, Ray
Pure speculation, but I have feeling Virtra may be quietly buying stock back and is not ready to disclose.
PS: I'm looking for the pending breakout to go well above .11. IMO, it should establish a new 52 week high, probably in the .13 to .15 range.
Stockguy,
A near perfect cup and handle have formed since the first week of March. William O’Neil would be pleased IMO, the handle is complete and we should see a breakout near-term; maybe not this week, but soon. Any spark at all at this point will turn this stock on fire. GLTY.
"That was quick. I wonder why the turnover."
IR/PR position versus CEO. I'm guessing Dale is taking his shot at his own golden egg.
SirFelix & ap223,
Good homework. You guys amaze me at times on what you dig up
5Cap,
Great visual on where we might see revenue going for the remainder of 2011. Thank you for sharing.
I'm hoping we see continued improvement in net margins as the revenues grow. By my calculations the 2011 Q1 net margin was 15.2% versus the 2010 Q4 net margin of 10.4% further substantiating that all fundamentals are moving in the right direction.
Cheers, Ray
Ditto Pat,
A couple of great posts. Thanks for sharing your homework and thoughts.
Regards, Ray
"Valuable Virtual Training at Gander Mtn. Academy | Shooting Illustrated"
Thank you SirFelix,
I appreciate all your posts.
"Are there investors and institutions that just short almost any stock with a pending R/S, as they do for biotechs approaching FDA decisions? If so, I'm guessing they would avoid VirTra anyway."
Jmodified,
You are correct. Any professionals, or investors/traders that know what they are doing won't touch VTSI short, unless the fundamentals fall apart.
Thanks Al,
I knew I was wasting my time responding to Berstein, but I had some time to kill, since the ladies in my life (wife, daughter and granddaughters) abandon me for the day So I posted more for the benefit of others that may be reading Berstein's post with an open mind.
Bill,
You really don't think the O/S will be pegged at 1.5M a year from now do you. This R/S and proxy is causing a lot of folks to lose sight of the forest through the trees. There are multiple reasons why the R/S was needed, with up-listing and foreign sales being just two of them. Management hasn't said it, and they won't for the obvious reasons, but when you combine the rev/eps growth, the zero debt, legitimate share price and bargaining power, they will be able to take out some of their small time, but highly profitable competitors.
We may see a forward split, but what I am sure we will see is some acquiring of competition or complimentary business. I suspect they are already negotiating, but have to get the R/S done to close the deal.
In short, there are a lot of ways it can play out, and my money says that the O/S balance, along with revs/eps will be much higher a year or two from than what we see when the R/S is executed.
And before you say it; I know, this post is speculative, but it is just as valid as all of the negative speculation that is flying around on this board. I use to enjoy reading all the great posts on this board.
Berstein,
"At least I am certain that post R/S, it will go much lower. Even the management themselves affirmed to prop the post R/S back up to near $4 if needed. My question to you is that if and when that happens, how much dry powder does our management have committed to realize this continuously until whenever they are ready to up-list? Would you as a diehard longs pump your dry powder to assist this management to maintain the post R/S at $4?"
You haven't and you can't make an argument based on what we know today that would drive the stock price down to the $2 or $4 level post split. If you are hanging your hat on the idea that MMs are going to short the stock to that level, you are wrong based on my previous post.
Your comments aren't even rationale. You said, "Be honest now, how many of you would put up $8000 for 1000 shares of this post split and it is still in the pink?? I think we should run a SURVEY on this board and find out."
I've already paid over $8000 for the equivalent of 1000 shares once. Luckily most of my shares have been purchased at $7000/1000 or below. The point being, as this story continues to improve, $8000/1000 shares is cheap. It's all based on valuation, and at today's price of .079 or tomorrow's price of $7.90, it's still cheap.
I don't think you realize how ridiculous your $2 to $4 prediction is. Management won't have to prop the stock up at that level, because buyers will be coming out of the wood work long before the stock sees $4. Unless this management team falls on their sword really bad, and that won't happen overnight, this stock is priced about as cheap as it is going to get. I personally would step up with 5-10 friends/associates and buy the company outright in the $2-$4 range, and I'm not kidding. Virtra is on track for $12M+ in revenues for 2011, and will probably book $2-$3M in profit, maybe more. At $2/share post split, you would be buying the company for approximately one year’s worth of earnings, and at $4/share it would be two year’s worth of earnings. Trust me, those opportunities just don't happen, and if it does, I won't be the only guy mortgaging the farm to buy Virtra.
Stormer,
I understand why you sold. I'm not arguing that management has handled this RS and up-listing the best way. I personally would have done it differently, but then again I'm not in their shoes and have to have some faith in their decisions.
Regardless of right or wrong, it's created multiple buy opportunities that I appreciate. I'm convinced the RS will happen, so right or wrong, I've moved past that issue.
You said, "Not only have they created liquidity, I believe they have created a day trader's dream. Simple rule: what is good for day traders is not good for longs. That is why I am out. Besides, I was getting noxious on this roller coaster. Fun to watch though. I am not sure what it would take for me to buy back in."
I have to disagree with you on two points. Liquidity may have improved a bit, but it still isn't liquid, unless you are talking orders of a $1000. When I trade in a liquid stock, I tend to trade in $10K blocks. I think you will find that to be fairly common for frequent traders. If you try and move on $10K of Virtra stock with the present liquidity, you can count on moving the stock price 10%-30%; that is not liquid.
On your point regarding a "day traders dream", you’re wrong. I've done some day trading over the years and this stock doesn't come close to the parameters required for successful day trading. Daily volume would have to be at least 10-20M shares and we aren't going to see that for a very long time in this stock. If you want to see a good example of a penny stock that is a great day trading platform, look at LVLT. C is another good example, but it is slowly clawing its way out of the penny stock label.
Zach,
Well said on both posts.
Regards
Berstein,
"Yes, it is all about demand and supply except that after post R/S, we are still sitting on pink at say $7.90. Where would the demand side come from for a thinly traded stock at $8 at that juncture? There will be absolutely NO DEMAND for this at all and it is a far gone conclusion. The only trade we will see is the MMs are walking this down by shorting it...The reality is that the MMs would love to see something like this but' naked."
Your argument fails on multiple levels. First, you seem to be implying/think that VTSI is a liquid stock today while it trades for pennies. IMO, $79K of stock trading on a good day is not liquid. VTSI lacks liquidity today, and it will still lack liquidity post split, until it gets increased visibility. A good day today is a million shares and I fully expect a good day post split will be 10K shares.
Which leads me to the second flaw in your argument; with the poor liquidity, MMs will be forced on occasion to sell naked to maintain a market, but you have got to be kidding yourself if you think that is a risk MMs like to take, particularly with a thinly traded stock whose fundamentals are solid and improving. The only MM that would willing short VTSI naked today, or post-split, would be a criminal whose intent would be to manipulate the stock which is illegal as he!!. Does it happen, you bet, but a legitimate MM is not going to risk their firm to make a few pennies on a stock that doesn't even trade a $100K a day. If this was C or SIRI, you would likely turn up some criminal activity.
It sounds to me like some lousy investor who couldn't face their own bad decisions has got you drinking the kool-aid that all MMs are manipulators, and the reason why stocks go down in value. Do your research on MMs and understand how they make a market and how they make their profit, and you will discover that stocks that go in the tank, typically go there because they deserve to.
You bet, 9 out of 10, or 95 out of 100 (whatever the ratio is) RSs continue to go down post-split, but you need to understand why. They were junk companies before the split, and they were still junk after the split. That is where VTSI is differant. If you think VTSI is junk, I don't understand why you are even posting on this board?
I'm not saying we won't see price dips; I'm actually hoping for some, but I'm not so foolish that I am going to bank on it, because there is a better chance that we won't see anything lower than where it traded yesterday.
You may be one of the old timers and hopefully you’re sitting on a nice profit, but you need to realize there is new money on the sidelines waiting to pick-up your shares on the cheap. I've been trying to build a decent position in this stock for months and it has been anything but easy. I've experienced firsthand how tightly this stock is being held and I pity anyone who gets stuck on the short side post split.
N B,
I think you are missing the point of my argument, but I don't want to go back and forth with you on it. Lets just agree to disagree.
Regards
N B,
I have to chime in on your post... "Management should keep doing what they're doing and the stock price will take care of itself. Artificially inflating it will not work. They will just end up having to RS again when they are finally ready for the Nasdaq. Does not make sense to RS twice."
With all due respect, there is nothing artificial in the RS. The closing price today of .079 has the same valuation as a post RS price of $7.90. The PE doesn't change, since the PE denominator (earnings) gets adjusted based on the number of O/S shares.
You can be against the RS for any number of reasons, but a post RS "artificially inflated price" isn't one of them.
Price is dependent on supply and demand, nothing more. In dollar value, the same amount of stock will be trading pre-split and post-split.
If you want to make an argument that the VTSI stock price is going to drop post-split, it has to be based on those factors that effect supply and demand, which in the long run usually always ends up being earnings. There may be some sellers post-split driven by emotional factors versus fundamentals, because they don't like the sound of 100 shares versus 10000 or some other irrational motivation. But, those are the kind of people we want to see selling post-split, because they create buy opportunities for investors that see past the emotional baggage. GLTY.