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Good golly, we will get the p21 data when we get it. crying about on the board does not expedite the results.
Oh this is weak only 3 of us posted comments on the Forbes article? There is a 4th comment on healthy living but I think my mom must have submitted that one.
Alright everybody its your CTIX IHub board duty to post a comment on the wonders of Kevetrin on the Forbes article. If they get a lot of comments they might expand the article etc...
Don't worry I will post the comment on how cute Jennifer is =-)
I knew Jim B would be our "ace in hole". What do think works best giving a shout out to CTIX before or after he declares his plans to travel to disneyland?
So you are okay with the company based on one data set saying they observed a p21 increase one week, then the next update the company informs that they observed no p21 increase? Wouldn't you be complaining about that too?
I don't seek to convince you of my view, nor do I desire the last word here. I shall leave that to you.
You have to think like a scientist and a statistician not a eager investor. One has to account for sampling size, sample error etc you have to prove with math that what you disclose is true. If they released data on just one data set it would be the first "red flag" I would have seen in this company. Like I said before if the first data set showed incredible increases in p21, it is even more important to increase the sample size and look at more data. What if the next data set showed little or no increase but you already declared "WE DID IT". They are obligated to look at all the data sets and prove via math that there is actually an increase in p21.
Harvard is not going to hedge on this, but once the call is made we can be sure of the results. It is what is best for the investors..proof.
As always IMO
Leo said the first data set is due mid-March meaning there is more than one data set, else it would be the data etc. For example, the first data set could be information from cohort 1 and the second data set from cohort 2, again for example. They would have to wait for all the data sets before they could release any information. It would be completely improper for them to release anything based on one data set. We do not know the frequency at which they are receiving data sets there is a lot of blood to be tested.
I do believe we will receive some information very, very basic information on the biomarkers. I do not perceive p21 results as a conclusion just the really interesting part of the blood tests. The conclusions would be actual tumor reduction.
As for some saying Leo's PR's are confusing, perhaps think of it this way its better than hearing nothing at all. Most biotechs in phase 1 trials (or any phase really) release very little information. You can go half a year without any information. Leo releasing lots of information that may confuse some is better than a 6 month black out on any news.
As always IMO
Thanks Doc, please scratch my last post RNA is not really a factor at all. You can even do it with dried blood..just read about RNA-Later. And the fact that blood does not have a lot of DNA as long as you store it in a -80 freezer its good. I must say upon research in to RNA testing, it has made giant leaps in technology since my college days.
Here is a link to how long blood samples can be stored for biomarker analysis http://www.clinchem.org/content/51/1/230.full
As I stated earlier, IMO there is little chance the company has any p21 biomarker data yet. They need to collect from multiple patients for statistical significance even if its a yes/no type answer. If they started biomarker testing mid-March it will be closer to mid-April before they can give us any news. They cannot test old blood samples biomarker data it should be fresh blood.
Go CTIX
I don't think I can. I want to retire by the end of the year =)
But they are only now started testing for p21. Blood does not store well when you donate blood your are actually donating plasma not blood. I find it highly unlikely that they are testing for biomarkers (sensetive test) on degraded month old plus blood. Also, why test blood for p21 from cohorts that we dosed at such low levels of K? They only now believe at the current doses that test might show p21.
You have to think like a scientist, moreover a scientist in a clinical trial. You cannot take for example 3 blood samples on March 15 and draw a conclusion on p21. Even if those tests showed incredible increases in p21, its even more of a reason to test further. You need numerous samples tested perhaps testing over a complete dosing cycle of the cohort tested. You have to prove what you say statistically even if all your looking to give is a yes/no answer in the immediate time-frame. If it wasn't for Leo's comments, I would not have expected any answers on p21 till mid-April at the earliest.
Like I said earlier, and to emphasis, you cannot take one or a couple of samples and declare a conclusion, especially one that could have such a meaningful impact on cancer. Many here on this board anticipated results way too early.
The ASCO abstract that was submitted back around the 1st of February can be updated by the company up to April 11th. Back in February, the company did not know that p21 data would even be available for inclusion to the abstract but DF decided to test early, early enough that data from p21 could be available by the April cutoff abstract update.
Here is my understanding, the company has or will update the abstract with p21 data this is why Leo said in regards to releasing p21 data that he will get the biomarker data to us with in the guide lines of ASCO not DF. IMO, Dana-Farber (DF) is not a hold up here. The consideration here on any p21 results is ASCO.
IMO, we will get biomarker data before ASCO but will not get details of those tests "the numbers" till ASCO. Now releasing a yes/no answer to biomarker question might for statistical reason require p21 from multiple samples over weeks of dosing. You don't test one person once for a increase in p21 and release a PR saying "WE DID IT".
I would think that they would have to at least collect biomarker data over the entire cohort through the whole dosing cycle. Testing was planned to begin mid-March. Leo's definition of soon I imagine is a lot longer than that of a anxious investors. We are only now entering a time-period when biomarker results might be available. My guess is that will hear word on this around April 11th.
No need to be a drama queens here or conspiracy, just be patient.
I see your alias is 3 weeks old. If think this is a scam may I suggest you sell your shares immediately. I am not offended by your scam claim I just feel sorry for you. Enjoy your weekend!
LOL, a income play. No big pharma is going to let CTIX become a big cash-cow even if its does somehow accomplish this the possibility of the buyout will kept it above projected earnings. I am still shooting for a buy out later this year. IMO
Patience
May 15th, Abstracts released on ASCO.org interestingly you can make changes to your ASCO abstract up till April 11th, link below. I wonder if Leo is updating the Abstract on p21/p53 tests and hence is limited on his disclosure on results in the here and now?
http://chicago2013.asco.org/abstracts
As always IMO
Seattle genetics Adcetris uses targeted antibodies in Hodgkin lymphoma and anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) with great success. Celldex licensed the technology from SGEN to create a targeted antibody for triple negative breast cancer that showed great promise, but the sample size was small.
I believe targeted antibodies have a big role to play in fighting cancer now and in the future. I have been invested in SGEN since 2006, ironically I sold some shares in 2009 to take up a position in Cellceutix. My thought at that time was this might be better then targeting antibodies.
OH
Again ironically, my ASCO play last year was Celldex but they botched the paperwork and missed the deadline to present at ASCO. The stock tanked so I am happy to see CTIX has their ASCO paperwork in order.
Its been known for over ~30 years that antibodies have this affect on cancers cells. Big pharma played around with this a lot in the 80's and 90's with no luck at that time. The problems with the antibodies is that you had to flood the body with them to get a therapeutic value at which point it became toxic to humans. Note in the article of minimal toxicity in mice now try that in humans. We cured all mouse cancers 50 years ago.
Some smaller companies sprung up after the big boys left mainly ImmunoGen and Seattle genetics. They found ways to target some antibodies so the amount of antibodies used does not reach toxic levels, with some great success so far in particular cancers.
All in all I see no threat to K arising here.
Add sand
Making in to the general session is very good news imo. They will have a audience, presentation and Q/A. This is much better than standing near the bathroom with ur poster on the wall saying excuse me...
If I was going to make a play for only biomarker news it would be around this time. Some people kind of got this twisted around the TESTING was to begin MID-MARCH I would not expect hear the news till late March early April and here we are.
I don't think this is a news leak, never know though.
Patience grasshopper! Don't any of you posters have a full-time job? Perhaps you are all watching this stock a little too closely. Tracking the B/A through out the today would drive me mad. I see no problems with the price action, as a long, looks like most ppl are holding tight, low volume. Some swing traders might give up soon which is fine they will likely be the ones chasing the stock back up. Technical analysis at these volumes is useless we have been news-driven since the beginning of year. Swing traders thought they had a date to trade around and are now slipping in to dismay.
I have no worries at this point if the price drops enough its all good I just got my tax return =-) and I won't be given back any of those shares cheaply.
I suspect that as well, alg. Program holds your buy order to see if it can get the shares cheaper and it pockets the difference.
Looking4 you have just been struck by The Edge. The Edge is the most powerful trading tool known to man. How does it work? You need only follow the trading patterns of the one called The Edge. The Edge was brought to earth by the Thunder-God himself to deliver to you unprecedented knowledge of CTIX trading patterns. He buys/sells and shorts himself to 100's of profits each month.
And because you were randomly selected for one of The Edge's random inane posts you well be automatically entered to win a trip to....his private Hawaiin Island! For the annual mating of the sea turtles!
Disclaimer: This posts is purely for entertainment purposes. You will not win a trip. The Edge is not licensed in any states. Taxes and Fees may apply.
Smile y'all its Friday!
Whoops wrong link here it is
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11455655/1/7-cancer-drug-stocks-to-know-right-now.html
Here is an example of the "ASCO trading" I was talking about before http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/post_new.aspx?board_id=12580
I am hoping CTIX will start showing up on some of these lists to increase the exposure of the company to the biotech world.
Doc, isn't true that laboratory blood test are more likely to give false-positives than false-negatives?
Just trying to make you smile!
If they cannot disclose any statistical information we will not be able to get a feel for how much tumor suppression is going on. For example we will not hear there has been 50% increase in p21 from baseline, this could be correlated to some degree of tumor suppression (certainly not by me). The larger the increase in p21 presumably correlates to how much p53 is being activated and how much tumor suppression is going on.
For me this makes this announcement somewhat safer if the answer is yes because we will only be able to speculate then. Interestingly, it sounds like Leo is planning to release statistical numbers on p21 at ASCO? If true we know that was not part of the abstract submitted back in February and opens the door to CTIX giving us updated information at ASCO?
As always IMO
Thanks TP. So the way I read that is that its a yes or no question? Did the p21 biomarker show up in the samples? yes/no
The intraday trading on that one would be interesting. Overall maybe a 5% drop no more than 10% and the price will recover with in a week. I believe most shareholders here are long and understand things well enough. The potential volatility will have the swing traders playing against each other.
I was happy to hear Leo back up a little bit in his last interview saying something to the affect that we were not expecting to test for p21 so early and that if its there great if not no worries.
I go to a lot of Bioresearch, Biotech talks mainly doctoral dissertations. Everyone in the audience knows that the data being presented has been published or is otherwise old. One of the first questions from the audience after the formal presentation is "what is the update, what is going on now (as in the research development)".
I would not preclude in advance that we will not get updated information at ASCO beyond what was given at abstract submission dead-line.
I hear you, the potential here is staggering. Not just in wealth but literally for human-kind.
Yep, trials take a long time. Right now I would be just happy knowing cohort 3 made it through clean.
The p21 data is a bit different to me in that its some what open to as to what it really means unlike tumor shrinkage data. It should also be statistically fairly clean to analyze. But..Does it mean what we hope it means? I see no problems with Harvard releasing this information they maybe more interesting in presenting tumor shrinkage data.
There is a level of statistical significance that must be achieved before one come out and say "We cured cancer" or even "We struck a mighty blow against cancer" you need solid proof. Harvard would adhere to the highest standards here. They may well not be sitting on information but rather checking to see if its true. Leo is not going to come out and say we "shrunk tumors a lot" you need to back that up with the math.
There will be no leaking of information from anyone at Harvard on results. People not only lose there job for that but will likely go to jail.
etradeegde your a Big-Time Trader. Your depth of knowledge of CTIX price action is spot on and you must be making 100's of dollars a month working your magic. Now this next part might be hard to read because I am now bowing to you in front of my computer with my face down to the floor, arms stretched up to the keyboard. I think my fingers just slipped off the keyboard home-row. Eadskgn b fvxc. Whoops, there goes the coffee and I think I know now where the ants are coming in the house at.
When you make the call that CTIX shares will drop to 1.50 I freak out and sell all my shares consequently causing the price to drop to 1.50 and I know your down there snapping up all those shares. Then I start to feel better again and I start buying driving the price up to 1.70 and this is where you start shorting and this causes me to freak out again and start selling. So in short, I just wish I could wire you all my money and we can quit this cruel game.
Please forgive I don't mean to compare your GOD-Like actions to a mere mortal like Kenny Rogers but every time I see your posts I think of the song:
You got to know when to hold'em.....(sing it now!)...know when fold'em....know when to walk away....know when to run! And u do!
Now honestly isn't this all a little ridiculous? But isn't this the type of response you wish you could illicit from us with your brash arrogance?
I am liking this theory! Instead of PR'ing the p21 results as normal to small audience such as us, be more national. After all this type of break through in the battle against cancer deserves more than that. Use your leverage of breaking the story to recruit a large news agency to conduct a interview in which you announce the results!
Of course, if your doing all of this the results most be positive!
Just fun speculation..
Careful here if you keep reading situps posts. Some say his TA on the stock charts and expertise in trading..is to die for!
I believe that would be a 2-3 month delay. I think in the TheProgressive SA article interview with Leo they were planning on starting the PoC trial at the end of March/early April.