Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Very interesting. Big rally started with the 18K trade then only 16 trades in the final 25 minutes. Only 1 trade less than 10,000 shares (or $25K in values) and 4 trades over 100K in size. Whatever this is it is for big boys only.
1,126,500 million shares that is over $28 million dollars.
I don't know too many people who have an extra $5,905,200.00 to buy 228,800 shares in IDCC at 15:58 on a Friday before a 3 day weekend.
Whatever this is, I have 2 thoughts. First only a few people are in the know and second only the VERY BIG BOYS are buying.
02/13/04 15:59:00 26.130 25.840 25.900 156,800
02/13/04 15:58:08 26.120 25.390 25.950 228,900
02/13/04 15:56:37 25.460 25.230 25.440 121,500
02/13/04 15:55:00 25.570 25.258 25.290 89,200
02/13/04 15:53:37 25.360 25.170 25.350 40,000
02/13/04 15:52:00 25.270 25.130 25.240 23,000
02/13/04 15:50:00 25.390 25.180 25.180 70,700
02/13/04 15:49:09 25.250 25.000 25.250 30,000
02/13/04 15:47:39 25.100 24.970 25.020 41,300
02/13/04 15:46:06 25.140 24.840 25.120 171,700
02/13/04 15:44:38 25.140 24.920 25.110 57,000
02/13/04 15:43:09 25.090 24.814 25.050 87,800
02/13/04 15:41:32 24.840 24.800 24.820 6,300
02/13/04 15:40:09 24.850 24.760 24.850 11,800
02/13/04 15:38:31 24.849 24.700 24.830 18,100
02/13/04 15:37:08 24.790 24.624 24.740 24,800
02/13/04 15:35:00 24.740 24.520 24.740 18,300
Market Cap Method.
My method of investing lately has been focused on Market Cap value. I analyze a company and determine how much that company will be worth. If it is substantially higher I'll buy a lot of shares and wait until the value rises to what I think it should be.
In IDCC's case I beleive that this company can and should carry a $5 billion dollar market cap. I strongly beleive that they can generate revenue of over $500 million per year and that the quality of these revenues will be worth 10x sales or $5 billion (in a good market).
Right now we are at $110
Nokia/Sam 2G will add another $100
Nec 3G an additional $ 40
Current 3G additional $ 20
Remaining 3G's
MOT/LG/FUT/PAN/ERIC/
NOK/SAM/IFX $230
====
$500 Mil
I know this is extremely optimistic and the 3G remaining license number is at best a guess. Everything I've read for the last 4 1/2 years points to the fact that IDCC will get paid by everyone for 3G. Now it is just up to investors to be patient and wait for that pay day.
IMO, Nokia's biggest fear right now is IDCC becoming another "QCOM". They are already throwing a monkey wrench into the 3G cap of 5% campaign. Handing IDCC an agreement at this time would instantly create all sorts of problems for Nokia's royalty cap plan. After listening to the whinning done by Nokia's lawyers during the December hearing I beleive Nokia will kick, scream, cry and beg to get out of paying IDCC under these terms. Bullies STEAL lunch money, they never pay for someone else's lunch.
I tend to agree with you here. It always seems that we get less than we expect so I'm not concerned if this happens now. I am of the opinion that prior revenues (money owed) is significantly less relevant then future revenues(percentage of sales going foward).
If the NOKIA arbitration is the big stumbling block to all 3G licenses and 2G settlements then get creative over the money owed to make sure future revenues are solid. How about a $58 million dollar credit for the engineering contract money NOKIA spent with IDCC?
WIN - WIN deals are good for all parties involved. If NOKIA is going to be a major source of revenue for years to come then we need to find out what it will take to get them to come on board.
The way I look at it is, reward or give preference to companies that have paid money (NOK, ERIC, NEC, SHARP) and save the hard line approach to companies that just infringe without paying a dime, MOT and LG.
Sounds like board sentiment is turning. Silence is not golden when it comes to the stock market. Data is probably correct that if IDCC has anything to say they will say it at the 3GSM conference in Cannes starting Feb. 23rd 2 weeks from Monday.
http://www.3gsmworldcongress.com/billing/default.asp?url=/billing/pages/who_attends.htm&static=o....
Last year we got 3 press releases during GSM.
2/17/2003 InterDigital Study Outlines 50% Cost Savings for Wireless Operators Deploying WTDD as Part of a Complete WCDMA Solution
2/17/2003 InterDigital Showcases Standards Compliant WCDMA Product Solutions at 3GSM World Congress
2/12/2003 InterDigital to Demonstrate Complete Standards Compliant WCDMA Mobile Terminal Solution and End-to-End Wideband TDD System At 3GSM World Congress
I'm still very positive BUT...
I'd like to see more staff added specifically in Sales, Marketing and Business development. What good is $100 million in the bank at 1 to 2% interest? Spend it on top talent.
If they had a plan to hire top outside talent and put a proposal for options to lure this talent it would pass. Last year they lost because everyone assumed that they would just take the options and divide them among the current crew who were already very well rewarded.
I'm not happy about LG getting a free ride. I believe they are the specific company that is hiding behind QCOM's coattails and are claiming that QCOM is indemnifying them. I say challenge this. They are not paying us a dime (please correct me if I am wrong) so we have no relationship to burn.
I do not believe we can go back to the days when we sit back and wait for ERICSON trial. Then we sit back and wait for NOKIA phase II. Then we sit back and wait for NOKIA phase II rate. Then we sit back and wait for SAMSUNG arb, NOKIA arb, PANASONIC patents from JPO, etc..etc.
2004 should be the time when this company starts to pound its chest a little and flex some muscles. Take the $100 million and the patent a day and make some things happen.
P.S. I run a very small consulting firm. People in general do not like to pay. This is human nature. Use someone else's cash for as long as you can. I wait until all proper channels have been exhausted with letters, phone calls, etc then take action in shutting down services and disrupting business by not allowing access to my personnel. This is not pleasant and I dislike doing this. But it gets results. Bottom line when trying to collect money FORCE sometimes becomes a necessary tool.
Loop,
I agree with you that IDCC should start a 3G law suit but disagree with the target ERICSON.
ERICSON is paying IDCC every quarter for 2G, MOT, LG, SAMSUNG & FUJITSU are not paying for 2G or 3G. If I'm a business owner I go after the companies that are not paying rather then sue a company that is.
A 3G law suit win would certainly bring on new licenses. I'm sure other non-payers can be added to this list. MOT may very well be a 3G trigger for NOKIA. What if IDCC won 1.5% royalty rate in a MOT suit and it triggered NOK 3G?
If I may!!!!
My view of investing has changed in the last 12 months. I now treat investing as a marathon and not a sprint. This is especially true with IDCC. I will not lose patience at this point. I beleive this investment is very different from when I first got here 4 years ago. We now have consistant earnings per share, stable and growing revenues, insider buying (or holding at least), a framework in place for a NOKIA/SAM windfall, and new independant directors, not to mention more analyst coverage .
This stock is up this year over 10% and the year is only one month old.
31-Dec-03 20.77 20.80 20.50 20.60 336,200 20.60
IMO, this company has delivered and improved since the July Nokia fiasco. I really don't have any problems with their performance since they decided to get their act together and start listening to analysts as well as shareholders. Also after reading the summary's of the Nokia hearings provided to us by Jaykay and company I've come to realize the challenges that IDCC is facing in getting companies to sign.
Bottomline, I reserve the right to turn negative but based on the performance of IDCC I don't think that they deserve it now.
Looks like a 100,000K block at the end of the day brought us back.
02/02/04 16:25:01 23.970 23.970 23.970 700
02/02/04 16:15:59 23.607 23.607 23.607 1,700
02/02/04 16:10:38 23.918 23.918 23.918 600
02/02/04 16:06:40 23.970 23.800 23.970 2,200
02/02/04 16:04:18 23.800 23.800 23.800 100
02/02/04 16:02:30 23.970 23.684 23.860 100,000
02/02/04 16:00:50 23.980 23.600 23.740 73,600
02/02/04 15:59:00 23.970 23.660 23.970 18,500
02/02/04 15:57:01 23.710 23.670 23.670 14,800
02/02/04 15:56:00 23.730 23.540 23.690 8,900
02/02/04 15:55:00 23.660 23.470 23.660 7,300
02/02/04 15:53:32 23.550 23.440 23.500 21,300
02/02/04 15:52:09 23.550 23.540 23.550 6,500
02/02/04 15:50:38 23.550 23.520 23.550 3,200
02/02/04 15:49:02 23.550 23.520 23.540 1,300
02/02/04 15:47:38 23.530 23.400 23.530 19,800
02/02/04 15:46:07 23.529 23.490 23.500 6,200
02/02/04 15:44:17 23.510 23.440 23.480 10,200
02/02/04 15:42:50 23.500 23.470 23.480 3,700
02/02/04 15:41:37 23.480 23.363 23.470 6,700
02/02/04 15:40:07 23.390 23.320 23.390 6,600
02/02/04 15:38:34 23.387 23.290 23.387 5,600
02/02/04 15:37:05 23.550 23.300 23.310 11,700
02/02/04 15:35:36 23.625 23.540 23.550 12,600
As an individual investor one needs all the advantages neccessary to be successful. The big boys control the game and we are just the pawns.
Case in point, when a brokerage house upgrades or tells the individual investor to buy it usually has moved already and the key clients already have positions.
I use this board as an information source and an educational tool. It servers both of these functions very, very well. I'm doing good in IDCC and it is my largest holding. I'm looking foward to both Rmarchma's and mschere's earnings projections. I have learned about TA from Alley and GE_Jim. I respect Data_Rox opinion on the IPR that both IDCC and QCOM hold. The daily articles posted by nieves and eneerg provide a detailed understanding of the Global direction of the wireless marketplace.
So this board gives me the "edge" I need to make money not just in IDCC but also LU and NT both of which I purchased because of articles that I've read on this board relating to wireless buildouts.
I don't want any changes here. I think Jim does an incrediable job making sure that people stay on topic and focused in a professional mannor. The rules are simple and if we all abide by them we will continue to be part of this invaluable investment resource that Jim and Company have provided for us.
Delays on 4th quarter earnings are not that unusal from what I have seen over the years. The 10K is a very large filing and requires extreme detail. Put this together with so many open issues and the extra 3 weeks may very well help.
We really don't have that many more answers to questions poised at the last CC. I'm sure if we get the same answers to the same questions analysts would be upset.
1. Status of Nokia/Samsung arbitration.
Last quarters answer 2 of the 3 arbitrators select, will take a year.
Like to hear at least all 3 selected and time frame narrowed to 3rd or 4th quarter.
2. New Licences ?
Last quarter promissed 2 delivered 1
3. Panasonic?
Last quarter, waiting for JPO.
Like to hear decision soon or revenue will come in from outside Japan sales where patents are valid.
4. IFX chips.
Last quarter, start in June.
I'd like to hear some very vauge revenue projections so analysts can getting a clearer EPS picture.
Basically, I hope the delay helps IDCC get us more answers to pending questions.
Sounds like a censorship problem to me.
SHAME ON FORBES. AFRAID OF A SIMPLE EMAIL.
Whatever happened to freedom of expression.
First this is an investment board not a "mines bigger than yours" board.
Second, Your points are basically not relevent when you are talking about investing in QCOM now as opposed to investing in IDCC now.
QCOM has a $47 billion dollar market cap. At $58 dollars a share QCOM would have to double here for anyone to make 100% of their money invested and then have its market cap balloon to close to $100 billion dollars.
IDCC has a $1.36 billion dollar market cap. It is very likely that that market cap will double with the settlements of NOK/SAM and PANASONIC.
The real point is not whether QCOM as a company is better that IDCC as a company. The real point is QCOM as an investment on Jan. 27th 2004 vs. IDCC as an investment on Jan 27th 2004 and in my opinion is IDCC has a far greater potential to make me an investor money than QCOM.
Old News.
6/4/2003 12:17:00 PM - InterDigital Signs Research In Motion to Worldwide, Royalty-Bearing GSM/GPRS/EDGE Patent License Agreement
KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 4, 2003--InterDigital Communications Corporation (Nasdaq:IDCC), a leading architect, designer and provider of wireless technology and product platforms, today announced that its subsidiary, InterDigital Technology Corporation (ITC), has signed a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-bearing patent license agreement with Research In Motion Limited (RIM), a globally recognized and leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of innovative wireless solutions, including the BlackBerry(R) Wireless Handheld(TM), for the worldwide mobile communications market.
The agreement covers wireless terminal units built to GSM/GPRS/EDGE standards. Under this agreement, ITC will receive a royalty on each licensed product sold by RIM worldwide. RIM also will make an advance royalty payment to ITC, and once that advance payment is exhausted, RIM will be obligated to pay additional royalties to ITC on each licensed product sold.
Howard Goldberg, President and Chief Executive Officer of InterDigital, commented, "The signing of a worldwide, royalty-bearing license agreement with RIM, a recognized leader and innovator in the wireless handheld device market, is an important step forward as we broaden our reach in the global wireless communications market and diversify our revenue streams."
"The signing of this agreement with RIM reflects the applicability of our technology across multiple wireless devices ranging from mobile handsets to wireless-enabled devices," said William Merritt, President of ITC. "Our success in licensing our patented inventions across a broad range of mobile wireless products and manufacturers affirms the essentiality of our patents, and the competitive importance of our technology for the mobile wireless market."
It really is about market penetration. RIMM has the advantage of corporate acceptance, something that PALM never achieved. Now they have formed strategic alliances with all the major wireless players.
You can underestimate RIMM's brand recognition. Corporate executives love the fact that they can access their mail directly from their phones. RIMM solidified market leadership by getting the wireless carriers on board, e.g NEXTEL, VERIZON.
What is good for RIMM will eventually be good for IDCC. The fact that they signed a worldwide license agreement can only be great news for IDCC shareholders. Look at the journal last week for a cover page story on RIMM. All we need now is a little IDCC inside type trademark like INTEL and we can piggy back on their success and brand recognition.
dws,
I disagree. Money is Money. If NEC pays us $30 million a quarter we will rise. Wall Street doesn't care to an extent of who provides the revenue just how much will we get on a recurring basis.
Granted IDCC's revenues are of better quality than RIMM.
But real permanent price appreaciation will come when quarterly revenues rise is a substantial fashion. We have had approximatelly a 100% price rise since last year.
27-Jan-03 13.05 13.31 12.35 12.41 638,200 12.41
Now we had a NASDAQ recovery and an ERICSON settlement but we still have unresolved issues with NOK/SAM/PANASONIC.
The street will not recognize the quality revenue stream until it hits them in the face. Let IDCC pull a .50 cent quarter and watch how many buyers come on board.
Basically, our RIMM day will come when the yearly revenue projections can be multiplied by 10x to 12x to come up with a 3 to 5 billion dollar cap. $60 million a quarter will get us a $3 billion cap with $100 million a quarter getting us a $5 billion cap.
I've recently turned my business focus toward the RIMM device. I started my wireless development firm based on the PALM model and it failed. RIMM is making it because of the simple rule, "It's the application STUPID".
I did not figure that out in my first run at the wireless market. RIMM is king of the wireless email client. People want access to email via their handheld device. RIMM runs on all kinds of networks as was originally based on a beeper network that does not require the bandwidth and connectivity that of voice networks. On 9/11 all cell phones in NYC were out and people were using BlackBerry's to communicate.
Now most of my investment money is in IDCC and none in RIMM. I strongly beleive that IDCC will outpace RIMM in the next 5 years. However I'm not of the opinion that IDCC should be trading higher untill we see the revenues increase substantially.
Why don't we have a market cap similar to RIMM's right now?
IMO, it is all about the revenues.
RIMM's REVS
Revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2004 was $153.9 million, up 22% from $125.7 million in the previous quarter and up 107% from $74.2 million in the same quarter of last year.
Our revenues have been solid but not exploding upward.
PERIOD ENDING 30-Sep-03 30-Jun-03 31-Mar-03 31-Dec-02
Total Revenue 26,790 25,777 37,324 27,091
We are still David compared to Nokia as Goliath. The street is not pricing in Nokia's revenues right now because when choosing between David (IDCC) and Goliath(NOKIA) the street will always choose Golaith so I beleive their isn't any NOKIA/SAM revenue priced into IDCC right now.
2004 will be IDCC's year. If they win NOK/SAM and the floodgates of licenses really start rolling in we will blow right past RIMM.
Old News probably a repost still good read.
Motley Fool
InterDigital Plays On
Thursday November 13, 3:03 pm ET
By Bill Mann
Who can forget the big 3G wireless land grab of 1999, when people first began to realize that Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM - News) had carved out for itself a pretty sweet position as a toll taker for upcoming generations of wireless communications, particularly CDMA?
Soon, other companies jumped into the fray, declaring their own intellectual property and demanding they be paid royalties as well. To this day, InterDigital Communications (Nasdaq: IDCC - News) has ongoing or impending arbitration with powerhouses Nokia (NYSE: NOK - News) and Samsung, and successfully completed the same in the past with NEC (Nasdaq: NIPNY - News).
In what is fairly common in this realm, where IDC is locked in a legal struggle with Nokia in one area, the companies are cooperating in another as they co-develop Wideband Time Division Duplex (WTDD) technology together.
Defending and claiming intellectual property rights in high technology is nasty business, as folks from Qualcomm, IDC, and Rambus (Nasdaq: RMBS - News) can all attest. Frankly, when IDC first came into public consciousness with its claims, I dismissed it as an opportunist, claiming intellectual rights in an opportunistic fashion in the same way that British Telecom (NYSE: BTY - News) tried to claim rights over the hyperlink. I was wrong, and IDC has survived some fairly grim times in the interim.
Its revenues for the most recent quarter exceeded $26 million, more than 90% higher than the same period last year. This jump attests to the added licensing revenue from companies such as NEC and Sharp, as well as some increase in the demand for mobile handsets in aggregate. For the quarter, the company managed to earn $0.06 per basic and diluted share, though it should be noted that its stock price rise has exposed each additional dollar of earnings to more dilution, as diluted share count exceeds basic by more than 7%.
IDC's management in its conference call (courtesy of CCBN) were justifiably proud of the company's survival and revenue growth, noting that it has grown from little more than $1 million for all of 1998, an increase of more than 10,000%. As we've seen with similar companies, including ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMHY - News), the royalty model has the benefit of having negligible costs of goods sold -- in IDC's case, there are none. In fact, the vast majority of IDC's expenses in any form come from research and development; in the most recent quarter, R&D accounted for about 50% of total operating expenditures, or 42% of total revenues.
There are a few things that make me believe that the stock price -- at more than 10 times annualized sales -- is well overdone. First came a comment from CEO Howard Goldberg that the company's royalties are not based on unit sales, rather they are price-based. So Sony-Ericsson, which is rapidly increasing its handset unit sales, didn't account for a higher level of revenues for IDC, which may be due to price discounting by Sony-Ericsson. Several pundits, including Fred Hickey, have pointed out that there is evidence of massive handset gluts, particularly in China. On the other hand, with the advent of wireless number portability in the U.S. starting later this month, we can perhaps expect a spike in sales.
We'll certainly see, but IDC's priced as if it's going to be smooth sailing for some time to come.
Sometimes no news can become a momentum destroyer.
Last time we heard from IDCC was Jan. 5th.
"Press Release Source: InterDigital Communications Corporation
InterDigital to Present at the Sixth Annual Needham Growth Conference
Monday January 5, 4:14 pm ET "
Almost 3 weeks ago. IMO, Companies that don't release news have a tendency to "drift downward".
Maybe we get a boost from NEC earnings next week or hopefully it is the "quiet before the storm".
My Guesstimate theorys on price will be based on quarterly revenue.
Right now quarterly revs $25 to $30 million and market cap at $1.35 billion. A little over 10 times yearly revenue.
$120 mil revs and $1.35 billion market cap.
NOK/SAM 2G will add approximately $100 million in revenues or $20 a share in price.
$45 a share after they get this done.
Now we need to figure out how much each new licence will add to the revenue stream.
What can we expect to get signed in 2004 and 2005?
LG ? 2G/3G
MOT 3G
NOK 3G
ERIC 3G
SAM 3G
LU/NT 3G
PANASONIC REVS?
Each recurring licence will add to the market cap value and increase the share price. I'm sure our board accountants can do a much better job at projection revenues of the yet unsigned companies.
LG should be in the target right now. My thinking is they are the ones hiding behind QCOM's coattails claiming that they are indemnified. Haven't heard a peep on why these guys have no agreement.
QCOM's earnings came out and they received an analyst downgrade. It is down $1.50
NASDAQ and QCOM are taking IDCC down today, IMO.
San Diego-based wireless superstar Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) reported fiscal first quarter earnings after the close yesterday, handily trouncing its conservative November guidance and even surpassing its upgraded December prognostication. The company earned $419 million on $1.2 billion in revenue, growing 21% and 13%, respectively, year over year (not including effects of its strategic investment segment, QSI).
Beating earnings-per-share consensus of $0.48 by $0.03 would normally bounce a stock higher, except that Qualcomm's stock has already appreciated 30% in the last few months. So, like a surprise birthday party that was leaked in advance, Qualcomm's big surprise was greeted with half-hearted hoorays -- investors got their present early.
Even a positive outlook on CDMA sales didn't ignite much enthusiasm. Unimpressive reports from Motorola (NYSE: MOT) and RF Micro Devices (Nasdaq: RFMD) and their mixed outlook -- while not a direct reflection of Qualcomm's performance -- helped dampen the mood this week.
From an operations standpoint, Qualcomm continues an impressive streak. Free cash flow hit nearly $400 million, pushing cash and equivalents up to $5.9 billion. As predicted in December, the company sold roughly 32 million CDMA chips, surpassing earlier expectations of 27 million-28 million. Santa was very kind to Qualcomm this year.
Another exciting tidbit that seemed to generate less hubbub than it should have was that royalties from WCDMA products made up 12% of Qualcomm's total royalty income. This new technology segment promises a big future for Qualcomm, and thanks largely to subscriber growth in DoCoMo's 3G network in Japan, the company is starting to see fruit after years of delay.
Total revenue in Qualcomm's licensing and royalty segment saw a big jump as well, growing 46% sequentially and 38% year over year to $353 million. A decent chunk of this increase likely came from one notable source: Nokia (NYSE: NOK). The world's top handset producer is making substantial penetration in CDMA lately and should shed light on its CDMA sales (for which it pays Qualcomm a royalty) during its Q4 report today.
Yet, even after nearly doubling its growth expectations for FY 2004 and lauding Verizon Wireless' (NYSE: VZ) expansion of their EV-DO technology, many industry watchers still chose to focus on projected seasonal weakness in the next quarter. Feeling shunned again, investors and Qualcomm fans are still looking for the kind of love that flowed freely in 1999.
Jim,
I emailed Janet last week about earnings and she responded early March. They have additional time to report because of year end.
there is no other internet investment forum that even comes close to this one
Let me second that if I may. I've been reading and posting since 1997. Been on Yahoo, RB, Raggingbull and now I just post on this forum. The wealth of information that I received here is truely amazing. The on-topic and off-topic posts have giving me a deep understanding of the direction of the communications world. The debates about the board of directors and options granting gave me a knowlegde of corporate structure.
In a way I owe Jim Lur and all the contributing board members a great deal in providing this forum that helped me in my investment choices. Someday when IDCC hits the century mark I hope that a Forbes or a Wall Street Jorunal writes about Jim and the board. This is truely waht the internet was designed for back in the late 60's. Great minds (universities) sharing ideas for the greater good. In our case the greater good may be our own personal wealth but teaching people about investments can provide a greater public good.
Lastly I learned something from each and every member. The vast array of diverse talent here is amazing. So whether or not IDCC makes me a millionaire I feel I'm already rich with knowledge that came from this forum.
Last years 10K and 4th quarter earnings release was filed on 3/14/2002.
3/14/2003 5:00:00 PM - InterDigital Announces Revised Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2002 Financial Results; Revenue and Earnings Revised Upward Due to Updated Royalty Information
The rule is that a company must file a 10Q 45 days after the end of a quarter and they have 90 days after quarters end to file a 10K which emcompases the quarterly numbers.
I just confirmed with Janet that earnings will be early March.
P.S. I think Janet has been doing an amazing job.
I don't think that the 25% gain was because of rumors. I think that investors are moving money into wireless plays. I own LU, NT an PCS.
12/31 1/14
NT $4.23 $6.22
LU $2.84 $4.07
PCS $5.62 $7.05
The NASDAQ is hot and wireless is the hottest sector right now.
Interesting only 9 trades went off for under $23 dollars.
All high volumes moves. Looks a group or groups wanted to dump and chose today. I'm not big on conspiracy theories so my bet is that it is simply a close out of a position or a big fund wanting less exposure.
01/14/04 13:19:12 23.050 22.800 22.990 38,800
01/14/04 13:17:00 22.970 22.490 22.850 53,800
01/14/04 13:16:12 22.710 22.394 22.530 31,600
01/14/04 13:14:41 22.710 22.350 22.700 52,200
01/14/04 13:13:12 22.610 22.230 22.400 105,300
01/14/04 13:11:00 22.920 22.410 22.410 78,600
01/14/04 13:10:00 23.000 22.410 22.830 105,400
01/14/04 13:08:42 23.250 22.880 22.880 80,400
01/14/04 13:07:00 23.560 22.960 22.960 69,700
My first thought today when my broker called me was that it was a valuation downgrade by one of our analysts.
Volume and shares available for sale caused the drop.
01/14/04 13:13:12 22.610 22.230 22.400 105,300
01/14/04 13:11:00 22.920 22.410 22.410 78,600
01/14/04 13:10:00 23.000 22.410 22.830 105,400
01/14/04 13:08:42 23.250 22.880 22.880 80,400
01/14/04 13:07:00 23.560 22.960 22.960 69,700
01/14/04 13:05:36 23.650 23.510 23.550 19,900
01/14/04 13:04:02 23.760 23.530 23.550 13,200
01/14/04 13:02:23 23.850 23.710 23.710 34,700
01/14/04 13:01:00 23.935 23.520 23.780 48,600
01/14/04 12:59:00 24.060 23.520 23.580 42,100
01/14/04 12:58:00 24.070 23.860 23.860 3,800
It looks like the 2 105,000 share trades caused the big drop.
5 trades totaling about 430,000 shares in 5 minutes of trading.
Somebody wanted out badly and they paid dearly for it.
OT: Just found a site for intraday quotes.
BusinessWeek.
This is the first site I've seen that gives historical sells with block sizes. I don't have access to level II yet and always wanted to see the size of trades.
http://host.businessweek.com/businessweek/Historical_Quotes.html?Symbol=idcc&StartDate=01%2F13%2...
I will say that the world needs a better way of defining the market value of patents than the "slug it out" process we have now.
I think IDCC has a pretty good one-two punch in the NEC-ERICSSON agreements. While this battle seems long and hard fought it appears that the fight is going well.
NOKIA keep IDCC in the game during some very lean years prior to the NEC agreement.
Now we have ERICSON as a trigger for a 2G license and
NEC as a framework for a 3G license. NOKIA wants no part of either of these rates.
This has been like a long war with losing battles (MOT) and winning ones (ERICSON).
Bottom line, I'm feeling very confident about IDCC's long term potential right now. I also feel that the moves made over the last 5 years have been calculated and have positioned the company to win proper monetary rewards for their IPR.
I think that both the RIMM deal and the HTC deal will prove very profitable for IDCC in 2004. RIMM is supplying the high end phones for NEXTEL.
http://nextelonline.nextel.com/NASApp/onlinestore/Action/PhoneLanding?initstate=true&redirect=fa...
Big difference from $28 a share last time to $24.50 this time is the NASDAQ index.
Back in July NASDAQ was in the 1600's NT in the 3's. Wireless sector was still in the show me state with many people doubting that 3G would ever materialize.
Now we have huge run by NT based on VERIZON's $3 Billion dollar build out and people are seeing future revenues coming into the sector.
The sector was on fire this week. Not only LU, NT, PCS but ERIKY, NOK.
Plus this team at IDCC has been extremely responsive to the analysts and fund holders. The best thing you can do to silence a critic is too listen to the complaints and act on them.
Heartland complained about insider selling. IDCC executes and buyback and the CEO doubles his holding position.
Tom Carpenter complains about the board makeup and licensing progress, they sign 3 new independant directors and agressively announce new deals in the pipeline.
The needham presentation shows how far IDCC has progressed in marketing this company's stock to the street. Clear, factural, precise and distinctive. This is the message that IDCC is getting out to investors.
Investor's Business Daily
Nokia, Verizon Spread Some Long-Lost Cheer To Wireless Gear Field
Friday January 9, 9:59 am ET
By Mike Angell
Wireless gear stocks got a charge Thursday when the No. 1 cell phone maker said its latest results would be better than expected and the nation's largest mobile carrier revealed big spending plans.
Investors, executives and analysts say the news suggests a turnaround. After a three-year decline in network spending and flat to lower cell phone sales, many expect 2004 will be strong, as carriers upgrade networks and users upgrade their phones.
"We're in the midst of strong replacement cycle," said Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette. "Carriers are in a position where they can spend on their networks and offer new services."
Finland's Nokia Corp., (NYSE:NOK - News) the top mobile phone maker, raised its fourth-quarter sales and profit outlook. Separately, No. 1 U.S. carrier Verizon Wireless said it plans to spend $1 billion over two years to build a superfast data network.
Nokia Forecast Up 28%
Nokia's shares shot up 14%, as did many other stocks.
Slated to give final results on Jan. 22, Nokia said its fourth-quarter sales will be $11.2 billion. It had expected $10.5 billion. It expects per-share profit of 36 cents, up from its earlier forecast of 28 cents, excluding one-time charges.
While handset sales did well, Nokia pinned the upgrade mostly to improvements in its network gear unit, which has slumped.
Nokia says wireless carriers spent rather than scrimped with the last of their 2003 budgets. It expects the unit to report sales of $2.1 billion vs. its earlier forecast of $1.7 billion.
The strongest markets were the U.S. and China, Nokia says. It says sales were strong for new 3G, or third-generation, wireless wares. The technology offers fast Internet surfing on cell phones.
Spending on wireless network gear has fallen an average of 13% a year since 2000. Faucette says carriers are starting to feel the results of those cuts, and now need more gear to keep up with growth.
"Carriers have really underspent their needs," Faucette said. "After debt refinancings and improving results, carriers now have more wherewithal to invest."
Profit Margin Widens
Nokia's networks unit also turned a profit sooner than expected. Nokia now expects a $250 million operating profit from its network gear unit compared with its earlier expectations for a break-even quarter.
As for its main business, the company said cell phone sales rose 4% from the year-ago quarter to $8.9 billion. It said its higher-profit phones were the bigger sellers, boosting its operating profit margin to an industry-best 24% from 22% in the third quarter.
The quarter marked the end of a yearlong slide in the average selling price of Nokia's phones. Investors were worried Nokia had little ability to keep prices up amid fierce competition.
But Nokia says its average selling price rose to $162 in the quarter from $158 in the third quarter.
Faucette says Nokia is making its manufacturing even more efficient. He says the company should be able to keep its margins the best in the industry. "People have to be pleased with Nokia's margins," Faucette said.
Meanwhile, Verizon Wireless said it would spend $1 billion over the next two years to build an Evolution-Data Optimized wireless network. EV-DO is the high-speed evolution of its network.
EV-DO lets cell phone users surf the Internet at speeds 10 times faster than normal dial-up. Verizon has tested EV-DO technology in Washington, D.C., and San Diego. It plans to go nationwide starting late this year.
"Verizon is really throwing down the gauntlet by offering the highest-speed network," Faucette said.
Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and England's Vodafone PLC, didn't name any suppliers. But Lucent Technologies Inc. and Nortel Networks Corp. supply the gear for its two test markets. Lucent shares rose 10.5%, Nortel's 7.9%.
Wireless modem maker Sierra Wireless Inc. may also benefit. Its shares rose 5.6%. Verizon Wireless offers its high-speed data customers modems from Sierra.
Qualcomm Corp., too, is set to benefit, since it supplies EV-DO chips for phones and networks. Its shares jumped 5.7%. Nokia suppliers Texas Instruments Inc. and Powerwave Technologies Inc. saw their shares rise 6.3% and 17%, respectively.
Another wireless gear maker, Andrew Corp., raised guidance for its last quarter, and its shares rose 33%.
This rally has a lot to do with NT.
I own both NT and LU and since verizon announced a $3 billion dollars deal with NT wireless stocks have run.
8-Jan-04 6.15 6.30 5.84 6.13 153,968,800 6.13
7-Jan-04 4.99 5.84 4.98 5.68 140,706,400 5.68
6-Jan-04 4.71 4.79 4.70 4.76 30,758,600 4.76
5-Jan-04 4.55 4.65 4.55 4.62 26,104,200 4.62
2-Jan-04 4.32 4.52 4.30 4.49 21,090,300 4.49
31-Dec-03 4.24 4.29 4.22 4.23 11,303,900 4.23
NT added about $8 billion dollars in market cap in 6 trading days.
8-Jan-04 3.68 3.98 3.57 3.88 250,805,104 3.88
7-Jan-04 3.30 3.53 3.29 3.51 134,538,704 3.51
6-Jan-04 3.32 3.35 3.24 3.28 52,052,000 3.28
5-Jan-04 3.21 3.33 3.21 3.30 106,510,200 3.30
2-Jan-04 2.89 3.15 2.86 3.12 98,770,600 3.12
31-Dec-03 2.86 2.89 2.83 2.84 30,745,000 2.84
LU added about $4 billion in market cap.
some serious jumps given both have been in the toliet for so long.
The Verizon deal got this all started and many buyers are looking back at growth stocks and next generation wireless companies to gain based on this deal.
"CHICAGO (Reuters) - Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ - News) on Thursday said it would spend $3 billion over the next two years to speed up its networks and build a national next-generation wireless network, staking a claim to fast-growing high-speed Internet services."
Agree, GREAT PRESENTATION!
I like the fact that it was short and to the point.
He started out by pointing out the uniqueness of IDCC as an investment.
He hit many bullet points.
The 500 million in revenues generated so far.
The growing cash position over $100 MILLION.
The steady stream of licence growth with regard to revenue, year over year.
I liked this presentation far better than the last one.
They did not dwell on NOKIA/SAMSUNG and stated the dispute was all about the lawyers now.
The big thing was it gave mne the feeling that this company was not about sitting back and collecting royalties from cell phone makers.
They were innovators with 4000 worldwide patents and patent pendings.
The future revenue streams will come from cell phones, chips and wireless lans.
They talked about the value add that they provide and the partnerships with the wireless leaders including NOKIA.
Lastly the potential of the smart antenna seems huge. If they can value add existing wireless lans a whole new stream of licenseing awaits them, CSCO, INTEL, 3COM, DELL, HPQ, IBM, etc.. etc.
No more crying just facts and progress.
I know Jim asked us not to talk about SIRI but as far as price appreciation goes, if SIRI can obtain a wacky 3.16 billion dollar market cap on quaterly revenues of under $5 million, then IDCC can support a $2 billion cap right now on the strength of their existing licenses and potential sign ons.
Can't resist, I found the pain train!!!
Don't get in the way of a freight train folks!
..........O.O....O..O...OO..__
.................._....._.......___\_/
/^^^^^^^^^^^^____//#7_/_/
/ $$$$IDCC$$/____/////////////\\\]]}
/_..__..___..__.===/=/__/__] ]]]] ]}
(@)'(@);;''''(@)*(@)*****(@) shorts/bashers
My extremely bullish sentiment of late is due to the fact that IDCC revenues and earnings have become "predictable". This is no accident.
Starting with the NEC agreement and continuing with the ERICSON settlement, IDCC structured payments so they will be evenly distributed as revenue in the years following each agreement. With both NEC and Sharp revenues rolling in the settlement money forms a nice base which IDCC can grow off of. Deals like HTC and RIMM will provide minimal revenue growth but it will still be revenue growth. Also these deals validate IDCC's IPR.
This is not the same company as it was last year at this time. We were all begging for a windfall ERICSSON win and a fat NOKIA rate. What we got was tangible foward revenue from ERICSSON till 2006 and hopefully F & J have Nokia by the you know what. I'm confident as more 3G roll outs occur, IDCC's revenue will grow. We should see some more licences come, BENQ, PALM, NT, LU, LG, FUJITSU, etc..etc.. and some BIG DEALS NOK/SAM 2G, NOK 3G, SAM 3G, ERIC 3G and last but not least MOT 3G. Doesn't one of our new board members come from MOT?
I'm done with all this XMSR and SIRI crap. I'm fully invested in IDCC for 2004 and I expect to make SERIOUS money here. If you make more with XMSR go for it. But as far as I'm concerned IDCC is the BEST PICK of 2004.
OT: Sometimes it is quality of revenues and not quantity.
In the last 7 years trading I've lost fortunes and made fortunes and learned more from my loses then my gains. I owned a company called EGGS (EGG HEAD SOFTWARE). They had merged with onsale the first auction site. They had explosive revenues and NO PROFITS. IDCC's revenues are the highest quality revenues that you can have, selling IPR requires no cost of goods sold.
The stories of both XMSR and SIRI are at this price point very dangerous. Anytime you have a stock with a high burn rate trading at ridiculous levels it sends red flags. In every investment I make Market Cap becomes the number one variable. What would the entire company trade for if CISCO or MSFT were to buy them.
In IDCC's case I can see it trading at 10 to 15 points higher right now. I beleive that fair market value of the existing contracts, agreements, patents and revenue levels could bring in $2 Billion if the entire company were sold. That would be close to $35 to $40 a share. No way I see XMSR at this point in time selling for $6 or $8 billion.
Sorry but my money is mostly in IDCC.
Lets compare XMSR with IDCC.
Same quarterly revenues.
Total Revenue 26,913
Big difference in debt.
Long Term Debt 767,430
How about market cap?
Market Cap (intraday): 3.91B
So XMSR has close to 4 times the market cap with the same revenues.
How about gross profit?
Gross Profit (12,703 ) Negative 12 mil
Add R&D and SG&A
Research Development 4,016
Selling General and Administrative 43,830
Looking at the numbers I can not see how XMSR will MAKE MONEY.
Right now after the RIMM run-up I'm totally convinced we will see an explosive price movement to the upward side. Next quarters numbers will be very interesting. In RIMM's case it was the guidance and not the numbers that made it explode. If we can somehow break $30 mil and project $120 to $140 revenue for 2004 without NOK/SAM we will break $25 and possibly new 52 week high of 28.85. Right now NOK/SAM are beyond anyones control except the attorneys and the arbitors so IDCC is rightfully concentrating on new licenses. I don't think Marsala picked BENQ as the next signee from a guess. He probably talked to BENQ and someone said they were close to signing with IDCC. Otherwise why mention a name.
In 2002 I invested in a company called Primis Telecom. Everytime I wanted to purchase shares of Global Crossing or Williams Communication I bought more Primus because of the financial numbers. Primus was selling at .50 to .70 cents back then. Today it closed at $10.33. I mention this story in relation to IDCC because I bought more today. I look at where stocks are priced and what stock has the biggest opportunity to move and I come up with IDCC. If you look at the XMSR's of the world or the CRIS's, they may be worth a shot. But for my money IDCC will be the best investment opportunity of 2004, PERIOD.
Forbes may be taking the low road.
Because so many of these financial reporting companies missed the boat on the internet bubble they may actually think that it is the duty of the magazine to "protect" investors from this event reoccuring. Pretty much crapola if you ask me. Case in point LU was not "overvalued" at $64 but now it is under $3.00 and they claim it has "risen too much".
" Lucent Stock 'Has Risen Too Much'
Forbes Staff , 12.18.03, 9:28 AM ET
NEW YORK -
Banc of America initiated coverage of Lucent Technologies (nyse: LU - news - people ) with a "neutral" rating and a price target of $2.50. "We believe the stock has risen too much for a company that we expect to lose market share in declining end markets," the research firm said. Banc of America is projecting declines in capital spending for both the telecommunications wireless and wireline markets in 2004. It said it believes that next year carriers will focus on maximizing shareholder value rather than on investment, and said it expects Lucent to lose market share in the wireless infrastructure market. There were scant premarket trades for the stock, which Wednesday closed at $2.87.
"better to just lurk unless you have another rah rah post to add to the list."
I think this board has been anything but a rah rah in the last year.
The fact is that this board has been very active in getting IDCC to change its ways.
Some changes that have occured that are worth mentioning.
1. Less stock available for insiders. Many of the posters were instrumental in getting the 5 million shares that IDCC wanted defeated. If everyone was rah rah they would be rubber stamped.
2. Reduced amount of insider selling. I know many people screamed when IDCC would continue to set out a bunch of Form 4's like scud missles and kill any upward price movement. Since the Ericsson settlement their has been a dramatic drop in insider sales.
3. New outside board members. Many of us have been publicly requesting IDCC bring in outside help. Ronnie has been adamant about a board restructure. Now we have two new directors with great resumes.
4. New licenses. Again crys have been steady for new companies to sign. Well today we get HTC we also got RIMM and chip revenue from IFX.
Basically more people are bullish today because this company has been acting better. An IR department that actually responds to shareholders.
For me they have taken proper action to quiet my critisims and while I may not like the share price I do like the way the company has been acting the last 6 months.
Thanks Jim, my wife and baby are fine.
I see many people concerned about Merrits delivering and us returning to a lower trading range.
IMO, the key to this trading range is not speculation on new licences but the steady improvement of IDCC's revenues quarter to quarter. We are now predictable and that is something Wall Street loves. The $30 mil revenue quarters followed by the $15 mil are no longer happening.
I see 2004 as our year. Looking foward to a big party after NOK/SAM settlement.
OT: Soon to be IDCC shareholder.
At 6;26pm eastern time I was just blessed with a beautiful 8 lb 1 oz baby boy, my first child. Life is BEAUTIFUL!!!!!