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beginning to love my gold even more...???
http://bobosrevenge.blogspot.com/
The $10.5 Billion REFCO Smoking Gun?
The listing for the assets and liabilities of REFCO was just made available, and guess what just happens to be hiding in the liabilities column?
A $10.5 billion liability, at TODAY's mark to market valuation, called "Securities sold, not yet purchased."
$10,590,379,000 - to be precise.
Securities that have been sold. But haven't been bought. And they haven't been borrowed, either - see item 3 below.
There are three possible explanations:
1) Mr. Thompson parsed the truth with such dexterity that the number he advanced was incorrect in the extreme.
2) The number Mr. Thompson advanced did not include ex-clearing FTD's. For a complete primer on the implications of this, as well as the terminology, http://www.ncans.net/intro%20to%20naked%20short%20selling.htm
3) Those are all legitimate short sales and government securities. Possible. Somehow though my gut says that isn't the entire case. Legitimate short sales would have shares borrowed prior to selling, and would have the borrowed shares shown as an asset, offsetting the sold shares - but there's only about $2.5 billion as a receivable for "securities borrowed." The rest is collateral in the form of receivables.
A friend of mine had an interesting take on the matter:
"Considering consolidated balance sheets, such as Goldman's; When it contains assets labeled "Securities borrowed", I understand such would be related to securities borrowed and sold short. And, the offsetting liability "Financial instruments sold but not yet purchased" would be the value of those same securities on the effective date of the balance sheet; ergo, the price to cover. The difference would therefore be a snapshot of the net value of the short position.
However, with Refco, we see a consolidated statement of assets and liabilities where there is no line item for "Securities borrowed". However there are two line items that may be related. There's "Receivables from securities borrowed", 2,631,989,000, and "Receivables from broker-dealers and clearing organizations", 10,770,348,000. It's my guess that the 2.6 billion is the amount related to selling borrowed shares short, and the 10.8 billion is the amount that is due to be received when shares are provided to cover naked sales. Therefore, the sum of the two numbers would be the net from selling short and selling naked; 2.6 billion plus 10.8 billion equals 13.4 billion. Note, however, that it's all 'receivables'. This brings us down to "Securities sold, not yet purchased", 10,590,379,000. This is probably the entire marked to market short position at Refco. Subtracting the liability from the 13.4 billion receivables indicates a net plus of 2.8 billion.
Not bad--up 21%.
But, wait! If all the sales were legitimate short selling with a borrow then there would not be 'receivables' of 13.4 billion. That 13.4 billion would be available cash that could be used to purchase shares to cover. But it isn't. It's 'receivables'. Therefore there's no cash and no chance of covering."
Looking at the 10Q, I note that much of the liability is broken out as being Treasuries and the like. That would be the 10Q that we have been advised isn't worth the paper it is printed on. So the amount of FTD's is unknown - all we know is that there is a big number articulated. We don't know what in the 10Q we can believe, as they are now known to be a fiction - the books have been cooked. As with Enron, it becomes a game of "which part of the story would you like to believe today?" Some unknown percentage of it is likely FTD's, given the company's history and the reluctance of Wall Street to buy the company when it was offered to them, per the NY Times. The question is what percentage.
But why speculate?
I think it's time that we find out, no? Why guess any longer - let's get it out on the table.
These guys were being sanctioned for being involved in a prior naked short selling scheme, and were known as the go to guys for questionable types desiring greater "flexibility" in their trading. They lied to their auditors, the SEC and the public about their financial condition. Their CEO has been cuffed. They've had a reputation as "loose" for a long time - consider this from tomorrow's NY Times:
"In 2003, Pershing, a unit of Credit Suisse First Boston that offered clearing services for equities, was sold to Bank of New York for $2.5 billion, an indication that greater value was being placed on such services. Lee had taken a preliminary look at Pershing. That year same year, Mr. Bennett approached investment bankers about selling Refco. The bankers canvassed Wall Street, trying unsuccessfully to find an industry buyer.
A senior Wall Street executive who attended a meeting where Refco was pitched said that the biggest concern was that it cleared transactions for many small customers in the United States and overseas whose practices might pose a risk to Wall Street firms (emphasis mine)."
I think there's reason to believe that REFCO is the smoking gun the industry has been dreading. Wall Street wouldn't touch REFCO with a ten foot pole a few years ago because of "risky practices" of some of their overseas and domestic customers, so the management laid off the risk on the investing public instead. Nice. And the SEC let them.
You heard about this here first. Many months ago. In March, when I was speculating about a catastrophically large level of fails in the system, being covered up by the brokers and the SEC. When I was writing about special purpose entities being used to hide the size of the problem.
And here we are.
The whole BK filing can be viewed here.
I'm not going to go into the $1.25 billion of their claimed assets that are intangibles and "goodwill." Or the offsetting assets which collateralize the FTD's (cash, which is what you'd expect with FTD's). It doesn't really matter. If I'm right about the industry's use of leverage and the risk posed, covering substantial FTD's at REFCO could vaporize the leveraged customers beholden to them.
This is the systemic risk issue I've been warning about.
And this is just REFCO. One company. Only one.
I think we need to know an accurate breakdown of what the composition of the $10.5 billion actually is, and be turning over rocks to find any other hidden liabilities. Because once a liar...
The problem is now one of credibility. The SEC and DTCC's penchant for hiding all the FTD data, and refusing the vast majority of FOIA requests has to stop. There is no reason that the level of fails in a fraudulent company like REFCO justifies secrecy rivaling the Manhattan Project.
I'd like to see a list, by security, of REFCO's FTD's. There's no point in keeping them secret anymore. I'd like to see how many NFI shares, and OSTK shares, and TASR shares, and NAVR shares are in there. And I'd like to understand who is violating the rules. I think that is reasonable. The hackneyed platitudes that the SEC "doesn't want to cause volatility or give away the trading secrets of the participants" are hollow. We don't want speculations and more guesses. We deserve facts.
And guess what? We know the trading secret now. You just print shares in the back room to your heart's content. It isn't a secret. And frankly, IT NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN.
I'd like to see a Congressional hearing immediately, and I'd further like to hear Shelby share with us why he didn't feel that it was time yet to convene the Senate Banking Committee about the matter, when Bennett was pushing for it.
I'd like to see a special prosecutor cut through the secrecy and BS and tell us how many billions, hundreds of billions, have been stolen from us, and by whom.
And I'd like to see the system do its bare minimum job, and settle the trades.
This is going to be the biggest crisis to hit Wall Street in our generation. Mark my words. Cat's out of the bag now. And the SEC and Wall Street have some explaining to do. And some stock to buy, seems like.
If you've been wondering why your stocks don't ever seem to go up much, you now have a likely answer. The system has been printing billions and billions and billions of dollars worth of shares and selling them with predatory, unbridled aggression.
The class action attorneys are going to go crazy over this. What do the other, larger brokerages have hiding in the back room? How much bigger can this get? Can anyone even guess at this point?
With REFCO, we have one of the known aggressors in the naked short selling game, now failed, its investors defrauded. We have financials that are a fiction. We have uncertainty over what their actual liabilities and assets are. We, in short, have no idea what was going on there.
If a large portion of the hidden liabilities at REFCO are FTD's, it's time to settle the trades, and make the perpetrators start paying their bills.
Settle the trades. As 17A mandates.
The law should not be selective nor preferential.
I LOVE Gold!! Now, as for the gold stocks...
Weren't you the one urging me to be a good American and buy a Hummer/SUV just a few short months ago... Well how about buying some DIRTY GOLD!!
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/24/international/24GOLD.html?ei=5094&en=999887177e20dafb&hp=&....
Your NGO friends will ensure that POG goes over $500, but the cash costs of gold mining stocks may be another matter...
nice slick website, but luckily these idiot NGO's don't have a Hindu language version, thus missing the key target market!!:
http://www.nodirtygold.org/
P.S. - I changed the i-Hub box just for you...
6 months of hurricanes in 60 seconds, courtesy of NASA and a satellite.
http://www.nasa.gov/mpeg/136417main_hurricanes2005_Wide_320x240.mpeg
Nicaragua Politics
Nicaraguans Distrust Ortega on Amendments
(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Many adults in Nicaragua believe the leader of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) will not keep his word on a commitment recently made to the country’s government, according to a poll by M&R published in La Prensa. 67 per cent of respondents think Daniel Ortega will not wait until after the next election to pursue a series of constitutional amendments.
Nicaragua’s political scene has been unstable since president Enrique Bolaños lost the support of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) in January 2002, when his government decided to take legal action against former president Arnoldo Alemán. Last year, Alemán—who governed the country from 1997 to 2002—was sentenced to 20 years in prison for fraud, money laundering and embezzlement.
In November 2004, PLC and FSLN lawmakers at the National Assembly introduced a series of constitutional reforms that restrict presidential powers, by allowing the legislative branch to ratify, summon and dismiss government ministers. In January, the Central American Court of Justice (CCJ) unanimously ruled that the Nicaraguan legislative branch must not go ahead with the proposed reforms. Bolaños has so far refused to sanction the amendments.
Earlier this month, Bolaños sent a proposal to the legislative branch, seeking to postpone all constitutional amendments until 2007. Ortega has said the FSLN’s 38 lawmakers in the 90-seat National Assembly would support the president’s plan.
The next presidential and legislative election is scheduled for November 2006.
Polling Data
Do you think Daniel Ortega will stand by his commitment to wait until after the next election to pursue a series of constitutional amendments?
Yes
19.3%
No
67.0%
Source: M&R / La Prensa
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 610 Nicaraguan adults, conducted on Oct. 15, 2005. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
Your comment:
"National banks may sell individually provided that they still can meet the 15% reserves.
ECB may opt to sell = sell on behalf of the national banks and reduce the physical commitments of those banks in accordance as long as those commitments remain at 15% in value of gold."
Ok, now I am wondering whether those ECB weekly press releases would include a central bank sale sold by the bank itself and NOT by the ECB on behalf of the bank...??
Thanks much for clarifying the 15% issue.
Jim Rogers...
NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Managers of a fund that tracks a commodities index created by investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday they expected no redemptions to be processed for Oct. 31 since almost two-thirds of the assets are held by a unit of bankrupt Refco.
Beeland Management Co. LLC, a Chicago-based adviser for the Rogers International Raw Materials Fund LP, said it was unsure the fund would sustain any loss on the assets held by Refco unit Refco Capital Markets, and that it was unable to provide an accurate value of the fund's units.
Beeland said it anticipated no redemptions will be processed for Oct. 31. If Beeland is successful in persuading a bankruptcy court to release the fund's assets, a special redemption date for those investors wishing to redeem their assets will be announced, it said.
PAL, here is more interesting analysis...
Gold Fields seeks to thaw Arctic Pt
David McKay
Posted: Wed, 19 Oct 2005
[miningmx.com] -- IN January, 2001, when the palladium price burst through $1,000/oz, there was allegedly talk in the corridors of Gold Fields that its newly discovered platinum group metal resource, which carries the misnomer ‘Arctic Platinum’, might be worth $1bn. Four years later, Gold Fields has rescued the predominantly palladium project from the filing cabinet after agreeing to sell control to North American Palladium, a Canadian firm keen to resuscitate its own declining fortunes.
A dramatic correction in the palladium price since 2001, a lack of refining capacity, and lower than expected grades in the Finland-based deposit effectively torpedoed Gold Fields’ plans to diversify. But many of the same conditions have worked to undo North American Palladium which is struggling with poor market prices and declining assets.
As such, the proposal that the two companies breathe new life into Arctic is snappy piece of entrepreneurship.
The terms of the agreement is for Gold Fields to sell 60% of Arctic Platinum to North American Palladium if the Canadian firm spends $12.5m in a rescoping and feasibility study. The aim of the study is to produce a smaller. but higher grade project from the original Arctic project.
Gold Fields international director, John Munro, says Gold Fields was shooting at a 400,000 to 450,000 oz/year palladium-platinum mine. North American Palladium’s project would be much smaller, however, with a target resource of five million ounce resource yielding not less than 3g/t. This compares to a 2g/t average grade that had been identified by Gold Fields when it was assessing its much larger project.
“What we’ve done is to keep the Arctic Platinum project in the game with the possibility of participating again at a later stage,” said Munro.
For the Canadian firm, it may well benefit hugely from the project if it has called the palladium price well. One hope is that Russian sales of palladium, from inventories the size of which remain unknown, will slow amid poor market prices. As a result, North American Palladium is bullish about market prices whereas Gold Fields is less so. Perhaps the current $195 to $210/oz palladium price represents its lower limits.
For its part, Gold Fields may recover half of the $90m that has been sunk into Arctic so far, including buying the stake originally owned by Outokumpu. This is because North American Palladium will pay Gold Fields in $45m worth of its shares, equal to about 16% to 17% of North American Palladium’s share capital.
If the Arctic Platinum project can be made to work under North American Palladium’s more experienced hand, Gold Fields stands to benefit from a share price appreciation. Gold Fields is not sure whether its partner will succeed, but it has the option to claw back 10% of the project by reducing its stake in the Canadians by about a fifth.
The rescoping and feasibility studies will begin in the first quarter of 2006 and will take about 30 months to complete, the companies said.
you give PALladium no respect!! Palladium is a precious metal, so you do own some PM stocks...
In regard to PAL, this is very interesting, may be what is keeping PAL relatively strong compared to other PRECIOUS METAL stocks...
__________________
Gold Fields takes back seat in Finland PGM project
JSE-listed Gold Fields has restated its relationship with Canadian firm North American Palladium (NAP) and has now taken a back seat in the Finnish Arctic Platinum project.
Spokesperson Willie Jacobz tells Mining Weekly Online that the firm, which could end up with 40% of the project, believes that NAP, which earns its revenue from by-product nickel, platinum, gold and copper, is in a better position to operate the project.
This is because the project is now smaller than anticipated and NAP is a junior firm that is focused on palladium. Its Lac des Iles Mine is Canada's only primary producer of platinum-group metals and is one of the largest openpit bulk mineable palladium reserves in the world.
Gold Fields, one of the world's largest gold producers, with annual unhedged gold production of about 4,2-million ounces, believes that the project, to be operated by NAP, needs constant attention.
NAP will be able to acquire up to 60% in the project, provided it completes a $7,5-million rescoping study and exploration programme as well as a $5-million feasibility study before June 2008.
In addition, before this date, a decision to develop the mine must also be made, and NAP must pay Gold Fields about $45-million by means of shares.
The South African miner, however, has retained an option to up its share to 50% as it will have a back-in right to acquire an additional 10% interest in APP.
Jacobz adds that this is because it wishes to retain its exposure to the project and believes that it will go all the way to mine production stage.
Currently mothballed, some Gold Fields staff are on site looking after the property that has been in development for the last four years.
The mining property to be explored, hopefully leading to mine development, is located in Finland and its location and geology are quite similar to that of NAP's Lac des Iles mine in North-western Ontario.
The project has been divided into two phases and, during the first phase the rescoping study will be completed while phase two will see a feasibility study being undertaken.
The proposed exploration programme will focus on APP's SK Reef and SJ Reef projects, while the feasibility study will generate a report with sufficient engineering detail and cost estimates in order for the project to be considered for project financing or other suitable financing alternatives.
Rescoping and feasibility studies are expected to start in the first quarter of 2006 and take about 30 months to complete.
However, completion of the transaction is subject to a number of conditions including negotiating and executing a formal option and joint venture agreement and receipt of all required regulatory and third party approvals and consents, including the approvals of the Toronto and American Stock Exchanges and the South African Reserve Bank.
----------------------------------------------------------
E-mail the article:
Published: 2005/10/20 Printer friendly:
Author: nicola mawson
Portfolio: Senior Online Writer
E-mail: newsdesk@engineeringnews.co.za
more clarification please:
"official gold sales 500-700 tons = balance or surplus"
how can "offical gold sales" be more than 500 tonnes?, what non-signatories to the gold agreement can/will be selling up to 200 tonnes? provide possible central bank names...
yes noted the Sep 30 revaluation, this goes back to what you were saying that ECB reserves valued higher so thus ECB can now sell more gold to retain mandated 15%...?!!
believe most of "scrap" is recycled Indian jewelry and not dental/coins as you suggest. this Indian jewelry is very high carat gold with little "craftsmanship" worn around the fingers and arms, this is what is primarily being recycled (gold melted down and recast to another cheap jewelry design, tola bars, coins, or something else). this is my understanding, believe your statement not accurate in regard to dental/coin. this scrap per my definition is also very key!! the last thing we need is for Indians selling their jewelry to melt the gold down and it turn up as gold bars! Indian jewelry gold holdings makes central bank gold holdings look small...!!@!
Thanks Louis. Remember just trying to keep it simple...
Am concentrating on "new" supply. This consists of new gold mine production (2,500 tonnes per year) plus Central Bank Sales (500 tonnes per year) the way I look at it. We also have leased gold, paper gold, recycled gold, etc which can move the market but the real "new" supply is gold mine production and Central Bank Sales, IMO. Central Bank gold is in reality recycled gold but is best viewed as "new" since certain Central Banks think they have too much of it... Further, Central Bank selling (or lack thereof) tends to move the market.
What I like about the ECB data link you provided is that it is published weekly and gives you the number of central banks selling. I can adjust this data as necessary when GFMS/Julian Phillips/VirtualMetals provide a better number each month, then go about using the ECB data for the new weekly central bank sales and compare this to 41.6M tonnes cummulative monthly expected sales. Just want to determine whether central banks are significantly on schedule or behind schedule on their planned gold sales.
In regard to "markets perceived amount of gold sales", yes this is key. Central Banks often like to jawbone their gold selling to manage POG. However, appears to me central banks may now be trying to maximize price received on gold sales rather than managing POG as they did in the past...
_________________________
In regard to light sweet Texas crude traded at the NYMEX:
The contract is usually quoted as WTIC which stands for West Texas Intermediate Cushing, though some websites quote it as West Texas Intermediate Crude.
http://www.wtrg.com/daily/oilandgasspot.html
This is a light sweet crude but uses the term "intermediate". And the contract specifies delivery to Cushing, Oklahoma. http://www.nymex.com/CL_spec.aspx
Thus, $WTIC Texas oil goes to Oklahoma and is not intermediate...
There is a Midland delivery WTI but that contract has no volume whatsoever. The contract simply does not trade anymore. I have no idea why the NYMEX keeps the symbol active:
QCMF6.... QCM... WTI MIDLAND CRUDE OIL JAN 2006 NYMEX
no PM's? you still holding PAL...?
Palladium no longer a PM, obviously still an unloved metal...
This guy is likely in charge of ECB gold accounting...
http://media.putfile.com/mindfreak-throughtheglass0-6500/480
a solid cannot pass through a solid unless it's central bank gold...?
ok Louis, may have figured out where most of variance is...
GFMS report dated Oct 17th could not have included ECB Press Release dated Oct 18th that reported gold sales through Oct 14th. Thus, GFMS report likely just included the data for 9/30 and 10/7 periods (and not 10/14).
Thus, I derive central bank sales as of 10/7:
Per GFMS = 12 Tonnes
Per ECB Press Release = 10.86 Tonnes (3.04+7.82)
still noodling around with a spreadcheat...
FWIW, the Euro POG 393.124 is what ECB used to value gold as of end of the quarter (9/30), not the average price of central bank sales for the week. Think I will just eyeball a 5 day moving average chart to determine average weekly Euro POG of central bank sales...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GoLD:$XEU,uu[h,a]daclynay[da][pb5]&pref=G
Your fee is quite reasonable...!! Thanks.
Yes, believe you have found the 2 press releases referred to by the GFMS:
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2005/html/fs051018.en.html
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2005/html/fs051011.en.html
and I guess it should be no surprise that they do not match with GFMS press release, do not indicate the POG, etc..., so one has to back into the tonnes...
It's possible some of this variance could be caused by "net of a coin purchase" difference between your numbers of 19M tonnes vs GFMS 12M tonnes...?
"The first two reports from the European Central Bank for this new year in the second CBGA suggest sales over the fortnight of just over twelve tonnes, reflecting the net result not just of sales under the CBGA but also of a coin purchase."
Really do appreciate these links Louis, the ball is now in my court, and I will attempt to reconcile these weekly ECB reports to official Central Bank sales as reported by GFMS... or some variation thereof... These weekly ECB reports appear to be reports of central bank gold sales so these should be quite useful in determining whether a large sale was made this week or not when actually reported on Oct 25 for the week ending Oct 21st.
Looks like I have plenty of work ahead of me thanks to you!! Will post if and when I get it reasonably figured out... Let me know how much your fee is so I can send you an offsetting invoice... THANKS!
Am obviously NOT making myself clear...
Desire data for this fiscal year (Sept 27, 2005 thru Sept 27, 2006) and not last year.
Do NOT care whatsoever about last year (Sept 27, 2004 thru Sept 27, 2005).
Would appreciate if you or anyone else would post any current central bank sales for all sales after Sept 27, 2005.
From reading the GFMS report dated Oct 17th, the gold tonnes sold by central banks for THIS FISCAL YEAR is 12 tonnes:
"The first two reports from the European Central Bank for this new year in the second CBGA suggest sales over the fortnight of just over twelve tonnes" (see page 6)
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Publications%20Samples/PMMB_Upd_Oct17.pdf
Thus, as previously posted, central bank sales (2.4%) appear to be running behind their monthly quota (4.1%) for THIS FISCAL YEAR.
12 tonnes divide by 500 tonnes for year = 2.4%
1/2 month expired divide by 12 months = 4.1% (20.83M tonnes pro-rata)
Louis, please do not confuse me with the facts or past history, I asked you for this data because you know 10 times more about the details and intricacies of the gold market than me, and I sincerely appreciate your replies.
FWIW, I believe we have seen central bank sales this week. If sales were 30M tonnes this week, then central banks have sold only in line with monthly plan of 41.6M tonnes (12M tonnes per GFMS + 30 = 42M). If we learn that gold sales this week were 50M tonnes, this would be bullish since central banks are exceeding their monthly pro-rata quota and the POG absorbed this with just a $15 dollar price drop. Thus, I am interested in any website link or post from anyone who learns that a central bankdid in fact sell this week...
Thanks again for your posts!
Keep it simple for us simpletons... I simply want to know whether Central Banks are running ahead or behind in their gold sales this fiscal year. Don't confuse me with the facts!!
The quota is 500M tonnes for fiscal year (Sept 27 05-Sept 27 06), thus 41.66M tonnes per month would be expected.
How much have Central Banks actually sold in this fiscal year...? Again, don't confuse me with the facts, just give me your best estimate on how much Central Banks have sold for this fiscal year to date...
Louis, sure wish you would keep track of this Central Bank sale data on your website or otherwise just update this info on this board whenever you and/or others learn of a central bank sale.
All readers of this board, please post a link whenever you see a fiscal YTD tonne number for central bank sales. We can then compare to 41.66M per month planned sales and see whether Central Banks are ahead of schedule or behind schedule...
thanks much Louis! Will start reviewing GFMS newsletters, better late than never... Actually was already subscribed but need to start paying closer attention to these newsletters...
Thus, from Oct 17 issue:
"The first two reports from the European Central Bank for this new year in the second CBGA suggest sales over the fortnight of just over twelve tonnes"
12 tonnes over 500 tonnes = 2.4%
1/2 month over 12 months = 4.1%
Thus, using these stats, it appears that central bank selling below quota for first half month of new agreement (2.4% vs 4.1%). Is this accurate statement...?
Appears all Central Bank sales are from Europe, can I assume that all 12 tonnes mentioned are covered by these:
E.C.B.
Austria
Germany
France
Netherlands
Portugal
Sweden
Switzerland
Spain
Belgium
What is best link to get current (i.e. Sept 28 to now) Central Bank sales?, or is there such a link?, have not been able to find one other than to read Julian Phillips each week. I sure desire to know whether Central Bank sales are once again being front loaded in first half of EGA fiscal year.
Yes, I like Virtual Metals for "another perspective".
Thought Virtual Metals had nice write up on potential worldwide ETF in July issue:
"If we take the figure of 0.030% of stock market capitalization as a benchmark, we can make an estimate for the potential global gold ETF offtake. Global stock market capitalisation is around $22 trillion, thus 0.030% of this would be $6.6bn, or 466 tonnes of gold, about 200 tonnes higher than at present. This is obviously only an estimate. Countries differ in their propensity to invest in gold, and using stock market capitalisation as a proxy for investment market size could mean underestimating potential demand in countries with small stock markets relative to their economic size, such as China and India. It also does not take into account any marketing efforts to increase gold offtake in each region. On the other hand, not every country will get an ETF. Some demand from people in countries without an ETF will have already been met by the existing ETFs."
________________
We had Thailand recently add a gold ETF so I was wondering how new ETF countries would impact demand, and Virtual Metals made a reasoned estimate.
Also, Virtual Metals appears to be the first analyst to mention Mid-East Petro buying of physical gold in this July issue (published June 30th), do not recall anyone else mentioning this before then:
"The only deduction we are left with is that there is very strong and persistent physical buying in certain key markets, especially the Middle East. Anecdotally, we have heard that considerable purchases of gold have been transacted recently in the Middle East, with significant profits from the recent high oil prices being diverted into physical gold."
Virtual Metals July & August reports
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/MonthlyJul05FINAL.pdf
http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/MonthlyAug05.pdf
Palladium...
same thing today, both London AM and PM price fixes above spot price. AM fix @ $213 and PM fix @ $211
http://www.lppm.org.uk/2005_lppmfixings_am.htm
spot price never went above $212 during London hours and was $208 at PM Fix.
tomorrow economic news announcements should be interesting...
Producer Price Index
8:30ET
Bank of Canada Announcement
9:00ET
Treasury International Capital
9:00ET
looking forward to the TIC data at 9AM ET, and Canadian stocks may be impacted if Bank of Canada raises rates...
EDV.to ; nice press release tonight.
*Discount down to 34.4% from 37.9% last month and 44% in July 05.
*If gold continues to rally, EDV will be under 20% discount by Feb 05 given seasonality over past 3 years.
________________
Endeavour Mining Capital announces 2005 year-end results
Monday October 17, 7:02 pm ET
Earnings of US$24.9 million, Return on Equity of 34%
GEORGE TOWN, Grand Cayman, Oct. 17 /CNW/ - Endeavour Mining Capital Corp. ("Endeavour" or "Corporation") recorded net income of US$24.9 million or US$1.08 per share (or approximately CDN$1.28 per share) for the year ended August 31, 2005. This compares with net income of US$14.7 million or US$0.68 per share (or approximately CDN$0.89 per share) recorded for the year ended August 31, 2004.
The Corporation's performance during fiscal 2005 continued to build on our previous three years results and further demonstrates our ability to generate strong earnings and growth. During fiscal 2005, total investment income was US$31.3 million which compares to US$19.1 million during fiscal 2004. The Corporation's merchant banking business strategy remains highly profitable and generated a return on equity of 34% for the year, which compares to a 26% return during fiscal 2004, with our 2005 return being generated from a significantly larger net asset base relative to 2004.
As of August 31, 2005, the Corporation's investment capital base was US$97.1 million or US$4.19 per share (or approximately CDN$4.99 per share) which compares to US$73.5 million or US$3.18 per share (or approximately CDN$4.17 per share) as of August 31, 2004. As of September 30, 2005, the Corporation's net asset value was US$4.80 per share (or approximately CDN$5.58 per share).
Within its merchant banking portfolio, the Corporation has established a sub-set regarded as early stage opportunities. These early stage opportunities are generally defined as investments made during the formative stages of a new business, as it is developing its business plan and building its asset base. These are differentiated from other merchant banking transactions, which generally involve investments into cash flowing or near-cash flowing companies. During fiscal 2005, the Corporation generated investment income from approximately 10 early stage opportunities and these investments generated approximately 35% of total investment income. The merchant banking transactions (excluding the early stage opportunities) consisted of approximately 12 core positions which generated approximately 53% of total investment income. Collectively, merchant banking activities generated approximately 88% of total investment income.
something up with Palladium, could be those sneaky Russians... Palladium PM fix well above the bid/ask at Kitco...?
10/17/05 London PM Fix = $213.00
07-Oct-05 930.00 528.40 767.95 196.00
10-Oct-05 932.00 530.75 770.90 201.00
11-Oct-05 941.00 538.20 782.85 207.00
12-Oct-05 940.00 536.20 781.70 210.00
13-Oct-05 932.00 533.65 780.90 206.00
14-Oct-05 924.00 526.80 770.00 205.00
17-Oct-05 937.00 533.15 778.90 213.00
http://www.lppm.org.uk/2005_lppmfixings_pm.htm
kitco 3 day does not even show Palladium hitting $213, so how come the London PM fix above the spot...? inquiring minds want to know...
possible Burnstone news forthcoming?
1) Feasibility Study by late 2005
2) Drill results from southeastern part of property (Area 3), around drill hole 3090 (am very interested in these results)
3) Other infill drilling results have apparently been completed but not released...? as these will be incorporated in the late 2005 feasibility study.
Area 3
from 2Q05:
http://www.sedar.com/csfsprod/data59/filings/00818237/00000001/C%3A%5CSEDAR%5CFILINGS%5CGBGQ2Jun05MD....
"Work on the feasibility study for the Burnstone Project continued during the quarter with an expected completion date of late 2005. In addition, exploration drilling was initiated in the southeastern part of the property to test for near-surface Witwatersrand-style gold mineralization."
"Limited drilling should be done in the south-eastern block (previously Area 3), around borehole 3090 since this borehole intersected well developed Kimberley reef mineralization with high gold grades."
"Exploration has also been initiated in the southeastern part of the property on the Roodepoort and Kildare farms. Mapping and initial drill testing was completed during the quarter. The latter included 21 short holes, totaling 2,154 metres, to test for the presence of the gold-bearing conglomerates that are typical of Witwatersrand deposits. The holes indicate the presence of several reef horizons in the area. Analytical results are pending."
"1. More infill drilling should be done in the central block (previously part of Area 2), to determine whether the area might be more economically feasible (drilling to a measured resource status if economic feasibility seems possible).
2. Limited drilling should be done in the south-eastern block(previously Area 3), around borehole 3090 since this borehole intersected well developed Kimberley reef mineralization with high gold grades.
3. Further drilling should be done towards the south-west of the north-western and central blocks (previously Areas 4 and 2). This would define the central higher grade area and southern area better. Refinement of structural and sedimentological models should be undertaken on an ongoing basis.
Progress on Feasibility Study Geology and Drilling
Additional drilling was done early in 2005 as per the recommendations above."
"The feasibility study for Burnstone is scheduled to be completed near the end of 2005. It is anticipated that an application for a mining license as required by the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act would be undertaken in 2006."
From: jrhana Read Replies (1) of 33716
Update from Randy who is very upbeat: The weather has cleared up and the drilling is speeding up. They are hitting gold on every hole and should announce the results on 9 holes within 2-3 weeks. He expects they will be similar to the first group of holes.
He feels they have already found over 700,000 ounces (he cannot officially say this until there is some sort of independent audit). The next group of holes should bring that figure up to over 1,500,000 ounces. He said that he can say that only about 1 in a thousand junior explorers ever find anything so that he has already beaten the odds.
However he feels confident that the Pena Blanca area is just as good and that the odds of finding two such contiguous areas are about 1 in 10,000. As the preliminary work on Pena Blanca continues to be very positive, he says his geologists feel confident they will also hit there.
In other words he feels he will beat the 1 in 10,000 odds and hit twice in the same area.
In summary, he is very happy with the progress.
He expects that the speed of drilling will speed up considerably in the first three months of next years and that the grade will be significantly higher.
He says that after a possible further correction of $10 or so, he expects POG to trade above $500 in the next three months. He says that he expects that when this happens the junior explorers in general and CKG specifically will do much better.
any opinion on EPM, or still too early...?
weekly
Good article explaining BEE transactions
http://www.rmb.co.za/web/rmb-online.nsf/Online/NewsArticlesOct05/$FILE/filling.pdf
Platinum/Palladium long term
Equapolar: Will Pt production keep up with demand?
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '13-OCT-05 05:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004
RENO--(Mineweb.com) A study of platinum group metals by an Ottawa consulting firm specializing in mineral economics predicts that South African mines will achieve an average 7.5% growth in platinum production as world platinum demand grows to nearly 10.5 million ounces by 2014.
In their publication, "Platinum Group Metals: World Resources Economic & the Future," authors Gary H.K. Pearse and Yana Amis predict that platinum prices could average $1,000 an ounce by 2009 while long-range combined PGM prices could rise to an average $400/oz before 2014.
Pearse is a principal for Ottawa-based Equapolar Resources, which recently published its second edition of "Platinum Group Metals: World Resources Economic & the Future." Amis is president of the firm's publications division. Their analysis was based in in-depth research, interviews with industry, government and academic experts, and the expertise and experience of the authors. The first edition of the report was published in 2001.
SUPPLIES
Despite a 7.3% annual growth in South African platinum production, a 1.67-million-ounce drawdown of stocks of dealers, fabricators, banks and depositories (DFBD), and 2.91 million ounces from scrapped autocatalyts between 2000 and 2004, "supplies remain tight," according to Pearse and Amis.
By 2009, the study predicted South African mines will achieve an average 7.5% growth in platinum production to 7,425,000 ounces of annual production. Nevertheless, they added, "The authors judge that easily accessible resources will have been earmarked for development over the next five years and that further development will be underground and at greater depth requiring greater capital (and operating) costs."
"Also, the boom in foreign investment and new companies in South Africa has likely peaked. This yields a production figure for 2014 from Southern Africa of 9,475,000 ounces of platinum," according to the study. The authors admitted to an optimistic scenario based on company plans.
Despite increased exploration of primary PGM properties and new nickel projects, Pearse and Amis assert that no additional PGM output will occur in Canada until at least 2014. "In any case, a realistic time frame for development of a new large, open pit project in Canada or the United States is a minimum of 10 years, only half of which relates to technical factors," they wrote. "This aspect alone puts any potential PGM project outside of the 10-year forecast period of the study."
"In summary, only an additional 136,000 ounces palladium and 42,000 platinum, all from Stillwater Mining projects, can be expected from North America during the forecast period and this projection is not made without recognition that output from primary PGM projects are at some risk going forward in North America," according to the study.
However, Equapolar believes that Stillwater major shareholder Norlisk's Russian complex "is admirably suited to rationalize production to more directly respond to PGM demand (and probably to replenish depleted stocks)."
The study suggested that "the sector that gave rise to the platinum group's soaring demand is destined to become a formidable competitor as a supply element and dampener of prices of the future." Equapolar forecasts recycling recovery of 1.16 million ounces of platinum, 1.03 million ounces of palladium and 280,000 ounces of rhodium by 2009. By 2019, the study projects 2.375 million ounces of recycled platinum recovery, 4.5 million ounces of palladium, and 680,000 of rhodium.
DEMAND
The Equapolar study forecasts baseline world platinum demand to be 7,622,000 ounces this year, nearly 8 million ounces in 2006, and almost 10.5 million by 2014. The authors predicted a firm floor price near $900 an ounce by 2014, which is based on the demand for jewelry platinum.
Equapolar asserted that new markets for platinum demand in jewelry are far from mature. "Moreover, platinum fever has yet to infect Asian markets outside of Japan and China. Middle East markets, along with long, rich jewelry traditions, are likely to come into play in the future," the study said. Pearse and Amis predict total platinum in jewelry demand of 2,352,000 ounces this year, 2,462,000 ounces in 2006 and 3.3 million ounces of demand by 2014. They added that they believe the Japanese platinum-in-jewelry markets has bottomed "and will recover at 6% per annum to 2009, thereafter averaging 2% per annum to 2014." The authors also suggest that North American markets will recover to 380,000 ounces annually by 2009 and, subsequently, achieve an average 2% growth rate through 2014.
The study forecasts a 10% growth rate in platinum use for oil refining and chemical processing catalysts, and glassmaking. For this year, they predict 840,000 ounces of demand, 880,000 ounces in 2006, and 1.1 million ounces by 2014.
PALLADIUM & RHODIUM DEMAND
"With prices of the last few years, palladium demand fundamentals are on firmer ground," according Pearse and Amis. The study predicts an overall annual demand growth of 6% until 2009, which will decline to 4.5% annually between 2009 and 2014.
Equapolar predicted that baseline overall world palladium demand will total 8,085,000 ounces this year, increase to 8.6 million ounces in 2006, and rise to 13,080,000 ounces by 2014. They set a palladium forecast floor price of $375 an ounce by 2014.
The study noted that almost 90% of rhodium demand is for auto catalysts. "Our forecast for auto catalyst use is for 3.5% annually to 2009 and then 3% to 2014," they wrote. "For other industry uses, we forecast 8% a year to 2009 and then 5% to 2014." Pearse and Amis also predicted a 7% average annual growth rate for ruthenium to 2014 and an aggregate annual demand for iridium at 8% to 2009, then dropping to 5% until 2014.
PRICE FORECASTS
Equapolar offered both low-range and high-range forecasts in its study. Their low-range assumes a conservative scenario for moderate accumulation of DFBD stocks to replenish greater reduced inventories, but not so great as to trigger mining production cutbacks. This scenario would keep prices in the $825 to $900 range until 2014. For their high-range forecast, they factored in new Asian development, and assumed increased usage of diesel technology. "Accordingly our bullish expectation is for platinum to rise through the $900 level reaching $950-$1000 an ounce average in 2009 and to continue to the $1100 level by the end of the forecast period."
For palladium, the study's low-range price forecast anticipated prices to remain near the $200 an ounce level until 2007, eventually climbing to $350 by 2014. "For our more bullish forecast, continued strong Asian development could create some indifference to the price of palladium while it is below $300. Also, considerable research is ongoing, stimulated by the comparatively low price," the study said. Substitution for platinum and new uses could nudge palladium to $350 per ounce by 2009 and to the $500 level by 2014, Pease and Amis suggested.
"In summation, considering an oligopolistic PGM industry structure for the future (as in the present), production cost levels, and above-ground accumulation, the very long run prices for combined PGM are projected by Equapolar in the $350 to $400 an ounce range in 2005 $US."
INVESTMENT STRATEGIES
In the study, Pearse outlined strategies for investment in PGM securities, futures and bullion. He noted that palladium suffers from vulnerabilities that don't plague platinum including recycling, the availability of palladium from large nickel projects, a preponderance of palladium portfolios outside of southern Africa, and a risk of low-grade deposits becoming marginal producers.
Pearse suggested that investment priorities should include large tonnage and amenability to low-cost mining and processing, the presence of significant other values including nickel, copper, other PGM, gold and cobalt, and the possibility that a junior company project will prove attractive to a major company.
For platinum, Pearse wrote, "an obvious conclusion of this study is that platinum rich deposits should be given higher priority than others [PGM metal deposits] of similar grade, minability and accessory values." He also explored the geography of investments. "A project delayed loses value at the discount rate for present value plus interest on sunken costs, plus interest on forgone earnings, a substantial financial penalty, and drastic reduction in profitability," according to Pearse.
His geographical priority list for PGM investment is lead by South Africa, which offers a favorable project development time frame of three years. Although Finland averages a 5-year development period, "resources so far examined are of the palladium rich variety." The Finnish Government participates in development, undertakes technical surveys, drilling projects, and other work on behalf of mining companies, according to Pearse.
Equapolar Resource Consultants produces in-depth mineral economic reports. Pearse is a professional engineer, economic geologist, and mineral economist, who has worked as a consultant in industrial minerals and rare minerals. Co-author Amis is an expert in legal, social and economic research, and specializes in project negotiation and facilitation.
For more information concerning the study, go to www.equapolar.ca.
RNC Reports Quarterly Production Results
17:08 EDT Wednesday, October 12, 2005
http://tsedb.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/tsx/config&date=20051...
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 12, 2005) -
Not for release in the United States
RNC Gold Inc. (TSX:RNC) today reported quarterly production results from its La Libertad and Bonanza mines in Nicaragua. The La Libertad mine is now operating with a contract miner and during September, the first full month of contract mining, significant progress was made toward improving the amount of material moved.
"September was the best month of the year in terms of the total tonnes moved and was accomplished during the month of highest rainfall," said Randy Martin, Chairman and CEO, RNC Gold Inc. "If the current level of material moved is sustained, La Libertad will be able to produce 70,000 ounces of gold per year."
The progress in September contributed to modestly higher production at La Libertad during the third quarter, as compared to the first half of 2005. The Company's 2005 quarterly production by mine is as follows:
----------------------------------------------------------
La Libertad Bonanza Total
----------------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter 8,269 6,501 14,770
----------------------------------------------------------
2nd Quarter 8,717 7,439 16,156
----------------------------------------------------------
3rd Quarter 10,761 7,844 18,605
----------------------------------------------------------
27,747 21,784 49,531
----------------------------------------------------------
Production figures for the La Libertad mine are detailed below:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Total Total Tonnes
Ore Waste Offloaded Tonnes Per Day
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter 268,706 741,578 276,910 1,287,194 14,302
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Quarter 256,141 749,297 229,810 1,235,248 13,574
---------------------------------------------------------------------
3rd Quarter 212,083 772,610 311,889 1,296,582 14,093
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 736,930 2,263,485 818,609 3,819,024 13,989
---------------------------------------------------------------------
September 93,768 345,213 116,828 555,809 18,527
---------------------------------------------------------------------
On a tonnes per day basis, total material moved in September was 32.4% higher than the 2005 monthly average. RNC is discussing with the contractor further improvements for the fourth quarter of 2005 and beyond.
palladium still the hated metal..., All precious metals to go higher except palladium....
http://www.miningmx.com/radio/
"miningmx.com] --Analysts will be forced to change their price targets for gold and platinum which were likely to punch through $500/oz and $1,000/oz respectively before the year-end, said Paul Walker, executive director of GFMS, a UK consultancy.
"We might see the economic realities kicking in earlier than anticipated pushing gold up toward $500 before the end of the year showing that its likely that we might have to revise our price targets," said Walker in an interview on Classic Business.
In the year to date, the gold price has gained 8.3%, and 13.7% over the last 12 months. In rand terms, this has converted to a gold price high of R100,000/kg putting spring into the step of local gold shares.
Platinum has shown similar gain. It notched up $939/oz at the time of writing. Gold remained solid in the $475-478/oz range.
Increased speculation occuring in both the gold and platinum markets could be "offset" by the trade occuring on the 'Over The Counter' market, thereby creating a safety net for the market, said Walker.
Commenting on the palladium market, Walker said there was less reason to be optimistic. "Palladium is difficult to call. The palladium stocks are quite large, but there is no definitive answer. We will struggle to see the same upside," he said.
Commenting on the basket of metals, Walker said: "The trend over the next three to four months is definitely higher."
Palladium in C$ key to PAL
Palladium in US$ has highest London Fix @ $210 for year to date 2005.
http://www.lppm.org.uk/2005_lppmfixings_pm.htm
Hello Louis!! A question for you...
Please give me a simple explanation for the large variance in lease rates between the precioius metals, i.e. gold, palladium, platinum, and silver.
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html
Why are platinum lease rates so high at over 5.0% while gold and palladium lease rates are under .25%? Silver is at a respectable 3.5% now vs. under 1% a year ago... Platinum has most always been above 4% for the past year.
Guess it must have to do with the current scarcity of supply vs. demand? What other factors influence lease rates...? If one could only trust those bullion banks, I would love to lease my 10 ounces of platinum at a 5% interest rate for the next year if I could only trust those bullion banks to return those coins in 12 months...
I'd take 5% interest on platinum...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/pt_leaserates.html
while palladium lease rates would not even cover the postage...
http://www.kitco.com/charts/pd_leaserates.html
Yamana news today makes one wonder about a possible acquisition of RNC, hopefully no where near the current price...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051011/116108.html?.v=1
Yamana President Peter Marrone was elected a RNC director a few weeks ago. Marrone was a shareholder in RNC prior to being made director per recent SEDI filing, he holds 378,900 shares.
______________
Insider name: Marrone, Peter
Insider's Relationship to Issuer: 4 - Director of Issuer
Security designation: Common Shares
559082 2005-09-06 2005-09-27 Indirect Ownership :
Canaccord Capital Corporation 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 378,900
____________
Would think RNC would be on Yamana list as a takeover at the right price..., and RNC insiders still hold significant ownership % (>20%) so would make bargain price acquisition less likely...?
Interesting speculation..., especially how Marrone just happened to throw out the 250,000/oz per year as the acquisition size, amazing how RNC forecast 2007 annual production meets that target...?
Politics-Encouraging...
Bolanos to remain until term ends in 2006
Nicaragua approves CAFTA
______________________
"Nicaragua's President, Enrique Bolanos, has announced an agreement with the opposition-controlled Congress to end a deepening political crisis.
A power struggle had threatened the government and US aid to the country.
The pact was reached between Mr Bolanos and the left-wing Sandinista leader, Daniel Ortega.
They agreed to delay constitutional reforms which weaken the president's powers until next year, when Mr Bolanos leaves office.
The move comes after the Organisation of American States warned that Nicaragua's democracy was under threat.
Last week, the US deputy secretary of state, Robert Zoellick, threatened to cut off aid if the opposition continued to work against Mr Bolanos."
___________________
Nicaragua's legislature late Monday approved the Central American Free Trade with the United States.
By a vote of 49-37, with three abstentions, lawmakers passed the so-called CAFTA pact, which will take affect after President Enrique Bolanos directs that it be published in the official gazette.
Legislators from the ruling Constitutionalist Liberal Party joined with independents to support the measure, which would eliminate trade barriers between the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic.
Those opposed included lawmakers from the leftist Sandinista party, whose leader, Daniel Ortega, has been an outspoken critic of the proposal.
CAFTA's approval will help fulfill "demands of employment, production, health and education for Nicaraguans," said Carlos Noguera, head of a legislative commission charged with studying the proposed agreement.
Industry Secretary Azucena Castillo was even more excited, calling CAFTA "the first document in 20 years that opens the door to Nicaraguan economic revitalization."
"We have to take advantage of it," Castillo said.
The would-be free trade agreement had divided Nicaragua's congress, with lawmakers failing to reach consensus on the measure in sessions past.
Liberal lawmakers first said their voting bloc would support the measure, then pledged to vote against it.
In recent months, the party has formed an alliance with its traditional foes, the Sandinistas, in an attempt to undermine Bolanos. The president is a Constitutionalist Liberal, by angered many in his own party by leading an anti-corruption campaign against his predecessor, former president Arnoldo Aleman.
The U.S. Congress approved CAFTA following a bruising political battle, and President George W. Bush signed it into law in August.
Bush and other CAFTA proponents say the deal will benefit both the United States and Central America, by opening the region wider to U.S. goods and services and lowering obstacles to investment in the region, as well as strengthening protections for intellectual property.
Critics of the measure say it would cost U.S. jobs, particularly in the sugar and textile industries, while poor Central American nations would not be able to compete with U.S. imports.
In particular, opponents are concerned that an increase of imports from U.S. farms will drive Central American subsistence farmers off their land, leading to overcrowding in cities and an increase in illegal immigration to the United States.
__________
Oct 11, 2005 — MANAGUA, Nicaragua (Reuters) - Nicaraguan President Enrique Bolanos and Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega have agreed to postpone controversial constitutional reforms, easing a political crisis that the United States called a "creeping coup."
U.S. ally Bolanos has been under pressure from dissidents in his party and leftist Sandinistas to accept reforms that would weaken him by giving Congress jurisdiction to name officials to some influential posts.
Bolanos said after a six-hour meeting on Monday night with Ortega, a Cold War adversary of Washington who ruled Nicaragua during a 1980s civil war, that the reforms would take effect in 2007, after he finished his five-year presidential term.
"All the constitutional reforms are frozen," he said.
______
MANAGUA, Oct. 10 (Xinhuanet) -- Ruling party representative Alfredo Gomez was appointed Monday as the new vice president of Nicaragua, in a unanimous decision of the National Assembly to replace resigning Jose Rizo.
Gomez, 70, of the ruling Blue-and-White Coalition, obtained the position with 83 votes in favor and none against in a vote by the 93-seat parliament, official sources said.
The new vice president will replace Rizo, a lawyer and one of the founders of the major opposition, the Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC).
Rizo, who used to be critical of the decisions of President Enrique Bolanos, resigned as vice president two weeks ago, so that he could run for office on behalf of the PLC in November 2006.
The PLC sent President Bolanos to power in 2002 and then severed ties with him
Gomez, a moderate politician and veterinarian, is a PLC dissident who in 2003 supported the sacking of "liberal" leader and ex-president Arnoldo Aleman, who is under house arrest for 20 years for charges of embezzlement.
But in Monday's voting, Gomez won support from the right-wing PLC. He also won support from left-wing Sandinista Front of National Liberation (FSLN), which is the second most important political force in Nicaragua.
National Assembly President Rene Nunez on Monday took oath from Gomez, who vowed to be faithful to the nation and abide by the Constitution.
Friday for CPI, Thursday for Trade Gap
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw
SA Rand POG @ 2 year highs:
Platinum looks much prettier in SA Rand... Approaching 2 year highs...
Palladium hitting 1 year highs...
and SA Rand POG:
Well, those sneaky Russians will likely fib on their Palladium inventory numbers..., will say yes we have no Palladium we have no Palladium today AND the price will skyrocket, and then they will say well low and behold we found some as they sell shortly thereafter...
those Russians more often than not say one thing and do the exact opposite as they try to manipulate the market... will be interesting to see how this plays out...
Fortis/Virtual Metals latest...
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/fortis/FortisMetalsMonthly_October2005.pdf
Palladium-still most hated metal...
____________________
For the first time the market is now able to get a clearer handle on the production of the worlds biggest palladium producer. Norilsk, the Russian company which is estimated to account for 50% of total world palladium output, finally revealed details of its pgms output, following a decree promulgated by President Putin at the beginning of this year which declassified information concerning Russias pgms and diamonds. Norilsk also said it would in future release quarterly production statistics for pgms as well as nickel and copper.
Norilsk kept observers hanging on, however, for what might be even more interesting information, concerning precise details as to the amount of palladium stocks it is sitting on. It said it expected to disclose full data concerning its pgms reserves by the end of the year; which is not necessarily the same as castiron commitment to reveal all. There is quite widespread belief in the market that Norilsks inventories are substantial.
West European new car sales in August rose by 7.5% year-on- year, according to figures from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. However new sales are still down by 0.5% for the first 8 months of 2005 compared with the same period in 2004.
Canada launched its first palladium coin, the $50 face value Maple Leaf. It was unveiled alongside a new $50 face value gold coin and a silver $1 piece.
Outlook
Palladium was given a boost in September by the resurgence in speculative interest in precious metals, but lease rates at near zero suggest a continuing belief that global stocks remain more than comfortable. The London pm fix drifted lower until mid-month (12th-14th) saw the trough, at $182.50/oz, before moving up to the peak of $210/oz on the 20th. Final pm fix of the month was $194/oz. What is remarkable about palladium at the moment is the intense devotion it inspires among the investment community on Nymex, which in the week ending 20th September saw a substantial return to the net longs by a huge 228,900 oz. There are no fundamental reasons why palladium should be higher than $180/oz right now, though expect some greater volatility as we move closer to Norilsk showing the world what it has. Short term: $180/oz-$195/oz.