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JK, It's looking that way. The Federal Reserve is in a bad situation and limited to what they can do, kinda similar to the great depression, they had little that they could do as the money supply was at the max and because of the gold standard they couldn't increase the money supply and in fact had to shrink it as cash was redeemed for gold back then. The current situation has the fed with a very large balance sheet and interest rates just above zero now. There is a growing belief that QE was only for Wall street and will have much opposition to more and the negative interest rates are not looking popular and probably not effective either. We still haven't seen the "unintended consequences" of the massive QE and the government induced housing crash has only been dealt with as far as the bankers are concerned and the public is much poorer for it. The retirees that depend on interest rate returns are seeing their savings dwindle and the national dept is ridiculous and with just a 1% interest rate increase will have us back in the trillion a year deficit again. However there's always a wall of worry with Wall Street.
Nasa,
In short, I believe the market waves to be all double zig zags.
a-b-W-a-b-X-a-b-Y A typical impulsive wave that would be followed by e wavers as a five wave pattern would have a short "W" and a deep retrace that would be the 1-2 in e wave. Then the Y wave would be extended that would have an enlarged corrective (The "X") that e wavers would count as a 4th wave. Each wave has the basic count as I labeled above, even the tiny waves. Looking at a blown up 1 minute chart or even 1 second will show this. The extended wave can be the last as I just described or it can be the first (The "W" wave) The really extended waves have a "core" "B" at the center and what I refer to as "bookends" as ends or intermediate points when the wave is really extended in multiple "bookends"
The chart below has a real good clean wave pattern and labels for the above patterns. Notice the purple down fork to the right is very similar to our current wave pattern and I'm attempting to capture the top this way. My top call of 2213 has more than wave pattern counts involved, there are wave ratios in a couple different time frames, Happy family patterns that in particular is NDX made a new high recently and also that COMPQ took out the 2000 high and NDX came just short and still needs to make that high. Others I mentioned sometime not long ago are things like the monthly BB was not pierced in the highs last year. The wave patterns can be quite complex and difficult to read, it's best to have multiple signals overlapping for extra direction.
SPX 30,60, TNA 60: Looks like we finished the "X" shown on the SPX 30 and are ready for the final fling up. Maybe go into the first week of May. TNA will not make a new high due to the decay in the 3X, however RUT should squeek out a new high along with the other Happy family members. Should probably see the microcaps do some high flying here.
Nasa,
I don't do E Wave, Use to. I think the wave patterns are more complex than E Wave teaches. S Wave (my system) has all the waves being double zig zags and the impulse waves (ones that gain ground) have expanded "b" waves that are interpreted as wave 3s in E wave.
SPX 30: the blue fork has obvious respect from price and hits the 2213 target at the red arrow in the second week of April. The green fork has a later tag of the target, yet the "A" wave was steeper than the green channel and the "C" could and probably should break out the top and could align with the blue fork. This is the best I can do with this, yet it seems very likely that the latest would be the end of April for a top.
SPX 30 & 60: The wave ratio shown on the 30 is close to the 2213 target mid April. Just a guess if B is complete though. Since "A" was much steeper than "B" the "C" could be as well and change the target date sooner? This the last trading day before the 3 day holiday weekend and may have a "feel good" rally into the close.
No
QQQ chart, green and purple forks again, NDX needs to take out the 2000 high @ 4816 which is just above 118 on the Qs shown with the retrace tool. The green fork is pushed out toward the end of April (doesn't quite agree with SPX) and the purple fork has a much steeper possible path in line with SPX's purple fork.
SPX, COMPQ 30 min: The small green up forks are looking good now, for a short while at least maybe. It seems the current market is all about trashing any patterns that have worked in the past. NAMO, NYMO and the 13,8,3 stochastic on both the 1 and 2 hr charts are too high for a bottom call but that doesn't mean anything in this market I guess. I'm thinking a steady grind up with overnight gaps to help to just short of the recent all time highs and a correction of moderate size before the eventual top.
SPX 30 min: With time frame extended out. Price is showing respect to the blue fork which is pointing to around the first week of April which might be the right expectation as May tends to be a down month and we would have some April time to establish the top and reverse into the May down. The green up fork is looking sloppy and could vey well fail.
SPX, TNA, These look acceptable here. I found it unusual that from the recent 1947 top, the 13,8,3 stochastic on the 2 hr SPX (or the 233,134,34 setting on the 5 min shown which is very close) never hit OS although we first had a 75 point drop and then a 50 pt drop. It typically can reset in 30 or 40 points. the market waves seem to be increasingly volatile, is it because a top is near or is it computer trading taking over?
Rivers, CF, I kinda quit individual issues except a few that help me out with the bigger market picture. However here goes.
Quite a steep drop in the last 6 months, I spent some time with a long term chart and there's too many possibilities. The 5 min shows it needs a little more drop here and should finish by Thurs morning around 27.50 if I'm correct and have a nice rally at least short term.
royg, Germany had negative rates already last year
http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-sells-five-year-debt-at-negative-yield-for-first-time-on-record-1424871074
FOMC announcement coming up. Expected to hold things as is. The drop didn't happen and it's all about the Fed now i guess. 5 min TICK is high, 13,8,3 stochastic on the 3 hr never came down (the second to lowest (233,134,34) on this 5 min chart is about the same as the 2 hr 13,8,3. It;s not very obvious at all where it's going.