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I was in on SNDK but passed on INTC
The trend is your friend.
Before lowered capital gains, there used to be a pronounced correction mid Apr as everyone made tax payments.
I think we hold this slight upwards slope only to see increased volitility going into Apr.
All bets are off after that depending on strength of economy.
China tried to buy Socal with trade deficit dollars; Dubia tried to buy ports; Chavez going to get read creative to stick it to Bush with his purchase of American assets with his petrol dollars. <g>
Close was pretty weak but MRVL should wake up SOX index tomorrow.
I shouldn't throw any stones; I'm from Jersey
Referring to a disproportional map of US I saw in several people's office in Manhattan over the years, the Dakotas are on the far edge of map West of 8th Ave. <g>
Truly, beyond US state quarters and those wooden jigsaw puzzle maps every child has, it is hard to differentiate details about the Dakotas apart.
RIMM going to be: buy the roumer of settlement, sell the news. It been a contrary indicator of market for a while.
INTC is just about the only component if SOX that is not guiding higher then consensus of analysts projections.
IMO INTC is finally facing the reality that even a business or high end multimedia computer has become a lowest cost commodity item like a toaster or microwave that can't be final assembled in Flat Rock, TX; South Sioux Falls, ND or anywhere in USA or Mexico anymore.
Amana made microwave ovens in the mid west until GE & Samsung started making them in Korea for less then $100.
Wintel architecture is still in control as far as I can see going forward. Intel just has to trade off price for their products for increased unit volumes. They should be able to garner $125 of kit on these $500 systems coming out of China vs $200 of Intel product on $799 systems configured in USA a year ago.
SOX did obligatory test of 50 day MA this morning
SNDK BRCM up strongly off LOD. How much trust can one bank on this low holding and reversal taking hold.
RE SOX
It hit 50 day MA. Is anything extraordinary occurring that could prevent a typical bounce when we hit this resistance level.
I trying to discount the predictive value of the small flurry of downgrades of INTC right now.
Chart pretty busted.
Anyones guess when bottom is in. Last quarter has a lot of record numbers so it is hard to think sky is falling now.
It is given that they will had strong royalties, price decreases per megabyte and dramatic increases in total megabytes sold.
snippet from last quarters press release.
Revenue from license and royalties was $67 million, up 63% year-over-year and 12% sequentially.
Megabytes sold in the fourth quarter increased 122% year-over-year and 49% from the third quarter of 2005. Total megabytes sold in 2005 was 166% higher than in 2004.
Average density per card sold in retail was 555 megabytes, up 64% from the fourth quarter of 2004 and up 8% sequentially.
Average price per megabyte sold declined 13% sequentially and 39% from the fourth quarter of 2004. Total average price per megabyte sold in 2005 declined 52% from 2004.
Total gross margin was 40% of revenues compared to 37% in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 44% in the third quarter of 2005. Total gross margin in 2005 increased 3.6 points from 2004.
Product gross margin was 34.4% compared to 32.0% in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 37.2% in the third quarter of 2005. Product gross margin in 2005 was 35.5% compared to 31.9% in 2004.
RE SNDK
Got a DRAM newsletter today and I can see the reason for SNDK weakness.
"NAND Flash spot prices, on the contrary, slashed by 18-25% last week amid the seasonality impact and bountiful inventory"
RE INTC
Yesterday afternoon I got first email of quarter with basic msg "Help me I am floundering in AMD's shark tank again" from Intel inside sales asking to buy more product with an added discount.
Like a drowning swimmer, I let you guys know when 3rd round of emails with bigger discounts come in.
OT on your flu watch.
Bush Cheney would love the bird flu mutation pandemic. It would save tons and tons of #7 buckshot pellets.
Think of the massive reductions in medicare and social security liabilities that no spreadsheet scenario could calculate if morbidity rates were high and course of global infection lasted just a few weeks. Private life insurance insurance companies would take an upfront hit but would raise rates through the roof going forward.
Iraqis, Iranians, North Koreans, numerous South American, Central Americans Caribbean countries under the influence of leftist despots would suffer a disordinate number of fatalities since chicken and ducks would still be a vector of infection and these countries contain a high percentages of subsistence farmers where the children tend fowl like family pets. In Turkey, I think all the victims were young children who tended chickens and ducks. News commentators described how they cradedl the dead anaimals and held them close and kissed the dead chickens on the head.
I remember cc statement about meeting top line
and here is similar story from Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/2006/01/23/microsoft-earnings-0123markets07.html?partner=yahootix
Microsoft also launched SQL Server 2005, Visual Studio 2005 and BizTalk Server 2005 during the quarter. The analyst said she believes these products likely will “reaccelerate the growth rates” of Microsoft’s Server and Tools segment, responsible for approximately 25% of revenues.
RE MSFT
I got quotes on some SQL licenses last month and when I needed to procure them yesterday they had ben a recent 10-20% price increase on all SQL SKU's.
MSFT going to make all streets expectations for top line IMO.
BKX leading the way up again.
What happens when we get quintuple top at 106. With inverted yield curve, there is no chance in hell for fat profits from carry trade.
RE INTC I still see some additional 4Q inventory originally sold in Asia being hawked by US distributors.
I am putting 2 factoids together
- 55% of all CPU's were sold in Asia
- US trade deficit highest ever
I found this PC with following charactistics from Acer on distributors inventory by the thousands at heavily discounted price.
Dell is no where near lowest cost vendor as compared to 100% Asian built systems.
System Type Desktop
Processor Type Pentium 4
Processor Clock Speed 2.93 GHz
RAM Installed Size 512 MB
Hard Drive Capacity 80 GB
Optical Storage Type CD-RW / DVD-ROM combo
Video Graphics Controller Media Accelerator 900
Gigabit Ethernet
Microsoft Windows XP Professional
Price $517
I was just singing out loud to "I want to take you higher" by Sly and the family stone with my aging rockers idols on the Grammy show. I am remembering back to my high school dances when every teen age garage band played it back in the late 60's.
How much more indulgent can we get. Muslims must be getting ready to burn some more embassies <g>.
Just been looking at Fossett's progress
http://www.virginatlanticglobalflyer.com/MissionControl/Tracking/index.jsp
In about 5 minutes, he climbed almost 1,000 ft.
PS I am glad those skunks at WFMI are getting trashed.
1255 S&P looks like the low through expiry to me. Unless the macro economic trends are worse then we led to believe, we ccould retrace 2/3 of JAN decline.
I dont have much left short now; mostly long
added most of the old favorites ADSK SNDK BRCM GOOG and ISRG long.
XMSR looks like it will at least get closer to $27.5 then $25 by expiry.
I know there is some market being up or down for the year based on the outcome of the Superbowl but
if there something for how the half time show act is bombing it it would predict a market crash this year.
The Stones are embarrassing themselves. It is painful to listen to.
re rotation
It's getting very selective out there. Not too many large caps are doing well with the possible execption of MSFT which will do very well in 1Q with new SQL server release and more in the pipeline for this year.
You have to look at smaller caps like GILD DNA AET NVDA ADBE. They are looking fairly immune from downdrafts.
Your thoughts on homies. I think as long as we get can hold flat t single digit housing appreciation for 2006, they going to hold up fairly well.
Last but not least look at ISRG. It has got the cult following and did not do a GOOG on yesterday's earnings announcement even though those tax credit issues could have easily gotten them slammed.
RE GOOG
IMCL had same dip on analyst miscalculation about tax rates as Erbitux sales got profitable.
Stock got beaten up with a drop to current range.
It has gotten pretty boring since as their growth rate has slowed.
GOOG can keep trading at 350-400 range for a while since like you say they real earnings and if they keep growing.
GOOG AH price not important unless you own it. <g>
However, NDX futs off 19 as of 3:40 which puts a chill in a lot of tech stocks and effects more investors.
If SNDK isn't setup for blastoff after earnings announcement AH, I don't know squat.
INTC has been poison for 5 days and now it moving up again.
Just hold your nose for today if you think market stinks and should be going down.
Agreed on semi skilled labor
However, one of the neighbors jobs was as VP in facilities management had her MBA and thought she was safe. She was recruited 3 years ago to put in internet based reverse dutch auction for the companies suppliers to fall over each other reducing costs.
However, they downsizing a number of their plants and properties acquired through recent acquisitions. For big companies, even middle level management it is becoming Macjob considering the globalization of the workforce.
I could go on but it looks like S&P pump may dump.
But factory orders news got S&P moving clearly above 1270.
Only thing left is for opening gains to hold to close to get next leg up.
Personally, the neighbors emailed us last night stating they were both let go from 2 different drug companies within days of each other. They got 2 kids going to college and not much saved up for it.
It is hard to get to excited about the future in this massive reverse dutch auction called the US/global economy.
Looks like top and bottom line numbers will show no growth for 2006 citing cheap CDMA chipsets to Asia.
and that as good as it gets. I hate to see results in a floundering economy.
We either got to get some short covering in last 1/2 hour or stocks are going to get punky quickly.
I am leading to short covering since SNDK just doesn't give up that much in one direction without a rally.
RE SNDK
It getting that tell tale sign of "bubble stock" valuation that makes management buy companies like Matrix with 90% newly issued stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060117/20060117005592.html?.v=1
RE S&P
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
Multiple media commentators talking about VIX again.
I would expect SOX & BTK to touch 50 MA at the least to keep everyone on their toes in near term.
I not ready to commit to overall market joining BKX index below 50 MA unless talk of a slower growth economy contimues.
1 year ago, it took 4 months to get to oversold conditions with a lot more economic factors looking better then then now.
I would have to believe that additional 4Q earnings results are going to give us more dismal feelings and not much change in sentiment until Apr at earliest.
You can pretty much look at value of oil as proxy for stock prices going forward.
Not going to chase tech stocks that look like they are going higher. Post bubble hindsight tells me MRVL RMBS ISRG SNDK could be cheaper no matter how great their stories look.
I sold some GOOG JAN 400 short calls for $7.50 during the day and the stock closed below $400. I assuming that nothing will be assigned short tomorrow.
They made me sweat a little at the end to see if I would have to buy back the calls for pennies at 4PM.
Market has gone nowhere in last 90 minutes
Clueless on next 1hr+ trading action.
Can not tell if absense of sellers or PPT came back from lunch meeting.
Iran 'moves assets out of Europe'
Iran could face sanctions if it is brought before the UN
Iran has started moving its foreign exchange reserves out of Europe in a bid to shield the country from the threat of sanctions, reports suggest.
SOX is taking it on the chin
MOT was weak so realization starting to sink in that INTC results was no fluke.
I would like to see Jan semiconductor numbers to see if high single total output gains last quarter are still in place or if others were stuffing the channel like INTC.
Hit that S&P 1275 support again.
I missed all the morning econ. news. Any reason for such weakness.
AMD is smokin INTC
they reported very strong sales and I can only speculate that sales are sales worldwide based on unchanged 70 % internaltionl / 30% domestic sales ratios y over y.
I think the desire by large institutions to reduce their holdings and bank their equity profits is real.
I got a assigned on some MMC 35 short PUTs this morning. I got very few short PUTs out there remaining because this is 3rd stock to get assigned in last 4-5 weeks (more then last 2-3 years combined).
Hard to believe there is a lot of upside out there.
I think we are going to get pushed off the S&P 1275 ledge pretty soon.