Please do your own DD using FA +TA
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Is Warren Buffett a live pig?
Are you on the wrong board?
Only traders can post??
How often does a "trader" need to trade to be considered a trader and not an investor?
LOL,
Fletch
4/23/14,
Fletch
http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/fb
Hi wapsi,
Previous post from my phone doing
funky things when trying to post.
How do you "play" FB using a weekly chart?
I've always used a daily chart for most of my chart pattern time frames. I've used a weekly a bit when looking for a longer term pattern like for cup with handle over 2 or 3 years.
Way below is a Apple weekly that could be forming a handle on a cup formation.
Notice they talk about gaps on a daily chart time frame. Also gaps fill like 70% of the time. Below from stockcharts chart school:
What is a Gap?
A gap is a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive days. Although most technical analysis manuals define the four types of gap patterns as Common, Breakaway, Continuation and Exhaustion, those labels are applied after the chart pattern is established. That is, the difference between any one type of gap from another is only distinguishable after the stock continues up or down in some fashion. Although those classifications are useful for a longer-term understanding of how a particular stock or sector reacts, they offer little guidance for trading.
Hi wapsi,
What do you use
Below from stockcharts
What is a Gap?
A gap is a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive days. Although most technical analysis manuals define the four types of gap patterns as Common, Breakaway, Continuation and Exhaustion, those labels are applied after the chart pattern is established. That is, the difference between any one type of gap from another is only distinguishable after the stock continues up or down in some fashion. Although those classifications are useful for a longer-term understanding of how a particular stock or sector reacts, they offer little guidance for trading.
The gap is at 55,
Fletch
Below from stock charts:
Gap: Gaps form when opening price movements create a blank spot on the chart. This occurs when the high of the day is below the low of the previous day or when the low of the day is above the high of the previous day. Gaps are especially significant when accompanied by an increase in volume.
SA Analysis
Invesco Mortgage: Efforts At Rebalancing Portfolio Set It Apart
Mar 20 2014, 06:20 | by Equity Watch
about: IVR
Summary
Company working to improve earnings, support dividends and protect book value..
IVR has also successfully reduced duration and exposure to rate sensitive assets..
Company’s recent quarter’s results show book value increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter to $17.97 per share.
I believe that in the prevailing industry conditions and given the ongoing tapering process, mREITs with agency exposure are likely to underperform mREITs with non-agency exposure. I am bullish on Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR), as the company has been taking the right measures by rebalancing its portfolio to improve earnings, support dividends and protect its book value. In recent quarters, as Treasury Yields have risen, IVR has successfully reduced its duration and exposure to rate sensitive assets.
Financial Performance
The company reported mixed financial performance for 4Q2013; IVR reported an adjusted EPS of $0.48 in the recent fourth quarter, missing consensus estimates of $0.50. Earnings for the quarter were positively affected by an increase in portfolio earnings yield of 14bps to 3.49%, due to the sale of lower yield fixed rate assets. However, cost of funds increased by 17bps to 2.14% in 4Q2013, due to forward settling swaps, which had a negative impact on the company's quarterly earnings and led to a drop in net interest margin of 3bps to 1.35%.
A positive takeaway from the recent quarter's results was the fact that book value increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter to $17.97 per share. Also, as the company continues to rebalance its portfolio towards less sensitive assets, its leverage increased to 7.3x in 4Q2013 as compared to 6.9x in 3Q2013. IVR maintained its swap portfolio in 4Q2013, unchanged quarter-on-quarter at $12.8 billion. However, the company's hedge for the quarter, as a percentage of repo outstanding, increased to 91.4% as compared to 89.1% in 3Q2013. The following table shows important performance metrics for IVR.
3Q2013
4Q2013
Quarter-on-Quarter Change
Year-on-Year Change
Asset Earning Yield
3.35%
3.35%
14bps
21bps
Cost of Funds
1.97%
2.14%
17bps
50bps
Net Interest Margin
1.38%
1.35%
(3)bps
(28)bps
Leverage
6.9x
7.3x
0.3x
1.2x
Book Value Per Share
$17.64
$17.97
1.9%
(14%)
Source: Company Report and Calculations
Portfolio Rebalancing - Reducing Interest Rate Exposure
As Treasury Yields continue to rise and given the inverse relationship between book value and interest rates, the company continues to lower its exposure to rate sensitive assets to protect its book value. IVR is continuously lowering its exposure to Agency portfolio and longer duration securities. In 2013, the company's exposure to Agency securities decreased to 56.8% as a percentage of total assets, down from 72.1% in 2012. Also, the company lowered its Agency 30-year securities to 61% as a percentage of total Agency assets, down from 75% in 2012. Furthermore, apart from lowering exposure to Agency and high duration securities, IVR increased its exposure to Hybrid ARM, ARM and CMBS securities. The company's efforts to diversify its portfolio away from Agency and long duration securities are likely to portend well for its future book value. The company targets to increase its portfolio of non-agency and CMBS securities to approximately 25% each. The following chart shows the lower Agency exposure in 2013, as compared to 2012.
(click to enlarge)
Source: Investors Presentation
As the company continues to rebalance its portfolio, it will look to protect its book value. Due to portfolio rebalancing efforts, the company's book value change outperformed its peers in the recent fourth quarter. The following chart shows book value changes for IVR, Two Harbors (TWO), Dynex Capital (DX), AG Mortgage (MITT) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE).
Source: Companies Reports
Share Buybacks and Dividends
As the Fed continues to taper and interest rates are expected to rise by the end of upcoming years, share buybacks have become a popular option for mREITs to grow earnings and protect book values. In the 4Q2013, the company repurchased 10.7 million shares for $160.5 million, representing approximately 8% of its market capitalization. As the stock is trading at a discount to its book value (has a price to book value of 0.95x), the company is likely to continue to buy back its shares in the coming quarters.
Other than undertaking attractive buybacks, the company offers an impressive dividend yield of 11.60%. In the recent fourth quarter, the company paid a dividend of $0.50 per share and earned $0.48 per share, resulting in a high dividend coverage ratio of 104%, which I believe remains a concern for investors. I believe dividend coverage ratio for the company is likely to stay in a range of 95%-100% in the near future, and dividend coverage will improve as the company will continue to rebalance its portfolio. Earlier this week, the company declared a cash quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share for 1Q2014, flat quarter-on-quarter. The dividend is payable on April 28, 2014, with an ex-dividend date of March 27, 2014.
Conclusion
The company remains an attractive investment option for dividend-seeking investors, as the stock offers a high dividend yield of 11.60%. Also, the company has been taking correct measures to rebalance its portfolio, favoring non-agency and lower duration securities. In addition, I believe share buybacks will remain an important tool in the hands of the company to fuel EPS growth and protect its book value, as the rates are expected to rise in the near future.
Moreover, the stock offers a potential price appreciation of 5%, based on my price target of $18. I calculated the price target using IVR's four year historical average price-to-book value of 1.0x and current book value of $18. Due to the abovementioned factors, I am bullish on the stock.
Historical Price to Book Value
Current Book Value Per Share
Price Target
1.0x
$18
$18
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Hey Jld,
Looks like you sold high, on a short covering rally. Share holder meeting today also helped.
Good for you,
Fletch
Yes, futures are real green! Lots on IHUB have been talking about how it's time to short this market. A good way to trap them in is these bright futures LOL.
No weekend war started,
Fletch
A court patent ruling on Celebrex.
http://www.fox2b3news.com/business/story/Pfizer-stock-trades-halted-over-drug-patent-ruling/H6dr2a9a1UuASexcctG2FQ.cspx
Hey ryan,
Nothing to worry about IMO. This was a small percentage of shares held. Maybe he wants a new bigger house.
Fletch
SYA has a brand new high today.......over $20,
Fletch
BIDU was held back by margins and a down grade. More earnings news below...........
Baidu (BIDU) is the largest Internet search provider in China with 73% share of the search traffic. Until mid-2013, there were concerns surrounding the company’s mobile monetization capabilities and high dependence on the search business. However, Baidu grew organically as well as inorganically in the last few months to overcome these problems. It worked towards building a better mobile ecosystem and diversifying into newer businesses. This helped it accelerate top-line ($1.6 billion) growth to 50% in Q4 2013 from 42% in Q3. Baidu expects further acceleration in top-line in Q1 2014. The company has provided guidance for revenue growth in the range of approximately 55% to 60%.
Looks good for future gains to me,
Fletch
Look at a 6 month chart of SBUX with a 50 day simple moving average. It's been in a down trend and below the 50 day since December. I sold my long term hold and will wait for a reversal to get back in.
Fletch
This link should explain the split,
Fletch
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/17/technology/google-stock-split/
MELI beat earnings and is up a lot in AH. Chart says shorts have been filling their pockets since last earnings as it's been running under the 50 day for 3 months now. Let's get the uptrend going again.
Fill that gap,
Fletch
Hey fsjm,
Good news and bad news.........Good news is there isn't a gap left behind to fill. The bad news is........after and pre markets were overly exuberant and the day market is saying earnings were not that big a deal. Funny how FB earnings were bought big time but BIDU is just a ho-hum so far. Going to be watching MELI tonight.
Best,
Fletch
BIDU beat and should be close to or making new highs real soon.
:> )
Another short covering rally day. This one I'm long because I like their tech but saw that it's small float is like 1/3 shorted.
Fletch
So ....... How come SWIR is not making new highs? Maybe $30+ per share?
I'm NOT short but the shorts knew what they were doing. How come revenue is -17.6% y/y?
Hey vator,
The shorts were right on it. Earnings were OK but the street didn't like them. IMHO, the expectations were way too high.
Best,
Fletch
Hey Jc,
Morningstar says it's approx. 30 million float has 1.75 million short. Not a lot but up 16% from the previous 2 weeks.
This one has been a tough hold in the new year. It was just about over it's own due correction, when it got caught up in the overall market plunge down of 5-10%?? so far.
Let's see what happens when the market decides it's about time to go up.
Best,
Fletch
Hey df,
Down here it's speakled sea trout and redfish are the ones most sought after. Supposed to be lots of different kinds of fish off shore.
I went on a couple of eastern basin Erie Walleye charters and the fish were 5-15 lbs. No fight really.....just drag them in. Walleye and Perch are very good tasting for fresh water fish.
I have a 21' open bow boat I use mostly on the finger lakes for fishing. At home, on Friday's, most go out for Haddock fish fries.
Google earnings were good and going to split. I'll need a good entry back into FB as they gapped up on earnings.
Best,
Fletch
Hey df,
Not sure what will happen. I'm at Grand Isle State Park south of New Orleans in our RV. No TV but do have sporadic wi fi lol. Sold FB because it may tank on earnings. I won't be home for at least a couple more weeks. Where we live has been bitter cold. Very windy and freezing here last night. Fishing has been slow with it much colder then usual.
Best,
Fletch
Hey df,
First time the SnP has broken the 50 day since Oct.
Could be we are beginning a 5-10% correction. Healthy pull backs better n crashes LOL.
Best,
Fletch
Hi catty,
I'm not sure.......I've held AAPL from the $70's and GOOG from 200's both bought in 2005. I doubt SWIR hits my stop loss level. The chart really looked good until I bought it LOL. I added some today and think it's close to a bottom. The Fool thought great news by March 1.
We'll see,
Fletch
Hi catty,
A bad few days for SWIR.........not back to the 50 day moving avg. yet........but that would be real painful. Lots of weak hands getting out.
Just so you know why I'm mostly in mutual funds, it's because they require much less work over the long term. Let the fund manager keep up with what's best to be in. Below is a yahoo chart showing some funds over 5 years compared to the SnP 500. BTW The SnP beats 85%+ of all the mutual funds. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BCSIX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=sksex%2Cbuftx%2C&ql=1&c=%5EGSPC
I've used ETF's to some extent for when I think a market sector will be hot. Was in a biotech ETF but sold it to buy SWIR LOL.
Best wishes,
Fletch
Hey Cort,
Very good to hear from you!
The wife is doing very good except for some chemo side effects.
Yes, this bull market has made patient stock pickers happy and a lil richer.
MU was found doing a chart search where it was a cup with handle pattern. Lucky it's earnings took of at the same time the handle finished forming :>).
I still have my $70 AAPL shares but have traded some extra shares off and on. GOOG has been real good too and glad I learned to hold the winners n trim the not so good.
Recent buys are IVR that's a dividend paying REIT, priced below book and has insider buys. Also bought SWIR as the Motley Fool is saying it's the stock play of 2014 and will change the internet as we know it. I just liked the chart until I bought it LOL.
Live long n prosper,
Fletch
Duplicate post........sorry