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OT I look at a complete basket case company destined for bankruptcy like GM and see only a 10% yield, so like I said, a 20% yield scares the crap out of me because it smells of a company in deep deep s***.
Re: NAV from their last conference call...
"So when we calculate the realizable value, we're not looking at the current fair value of a portfolio company that we think might re-appreciate."
This is way way outside my comfort zone.
But hey, I take some big risks too, and don't begrudge anyone else doing the same on terms that are comfortable for them. :) Hope it works out for you!
...ACAS...
20% dividend?! That's well beyond junk yields, even. Would scare the bejeezus out of me...
For their next trick, they're going to predict a high probability of a sunrise occurring next Thursday.
Hard to believe people actually get paid for that...
The comments are interesting. Man, are there a lot of bugs with 2.0! Today I got another frozen phone episode when the App Store decided one application had two pending updates.
Apple has grown too big, too fast, and is acting like a seriously fat company. Either that or they're totally distracted internally fighting over Jobs's replacement. Either way, IMO this is a real good time to stay away from anything Apple related that ends in a dot-0 or dot-1.
Anybody thinking of replacing their mission-critical Blackberrys with these things - DON'T! A year from now thinks will probably look better but this stuff is not as bulletproof as it needs to be just yet.
OT: Yeah he's from a different era, but still...Solzehnitsyn died today.
...S&P has lowered AAPL to SELL and dropped its 12-mo AAPL Target to $140.
I have no problem with a "SELL" call on the stock, but calling for a target 10% below the current price on a stock with ~30% annual volatility is about as chicken-**** CYA as it gets.
The trap that many investors fall into is in thinking that a growth rate of 20% ought to imply a P/E of 20 or some other fixed number.
Absolutely. And may it never change, otherwise a whole lot of "edge" disappears from the market.
Anybody have experience with the LG Super Multi Blu Bluray/HDDVD readers? If it sucks, is there another alternative to recommend?
OT: If anyone is looking at a longer-term short, might want to consider Dolby - DLB.
- majority stock owned by one octogenarian
- more than a third of revenues tied to IP expiring over next ~12 months
- nothing in the pipeline to realistically replace it
- massive turnover in senior-senior management "expected" before then
Just tossing it out there...all IMO etc.
Grabbed an item from the App Store. iPhone starts updating. iPhone crashes during update. Meanwhile one of the kids kicked on the aTV - which is tied to the same iTunes server, naturally. When the iPhone starts rebooting, iTunes locks up. Then the aTV freezes up. Then it starts rebooting too. Then iTunes outright crashes.
And all this happens in the middle of a Time Machine backup, which appears to have disappeared into never-never land.
Sigh.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."
Major mixed feelings on this one. Although it is nice a BC boy is headed to Fenway. Whether he's even remotely a replacement is the big question...
The AIO office is as quiet as you can get. And the speakers are better.
Ok, there's an incongruency in there somewhere. :)
Somehow I have a mental picture of you in your office cranking Pursuit of Happiness out of those "better" speakers. :) :)
Apple is nothing if not stubborn in its insistence that it will supplant its own judgment for that of the marketplace
In their defense - and I'm one who has asked for a mid-range cheesegrater for a long, long time - the marketplace sure doesn't seem to be punishing them for the decision.
In fact, I'm beginning to wonder if I haven't grossly over-estimated the demand for such a box. When I look at my unfortunate WinTel brethren, the only ones buying boxes are the ones buying high-end performance. Everyone else is either begrudgingly settling for smaller boxes whilst pining for a decent Wintel iMac, or using a laptop with external display.
Dunno know anything for sure, but I have to concede that Jobs may have been more right than me on this one. Hell, even I ended up with an "in for a penny..." 8-core behemoth.
yeah, most of what's available is crap. but that can be viewed as a positive - that a control-freak outfit like Apple is actually letting apps and developers sink & swim on their own merits rather than pre-emptiveliy exercising some kind of grand Jobsonian filter.
Well you knew it was going to happen...DRM-stripped games from the App Store now showing up on the torrents.
Totally OT: End of an era - Manny Ramirez is officially and publicly asking for a trade. Red Sox have done a pretty good job restocking the farm and getting the development pipeline rolling, it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
So what do you think? Am I asking for trouble and problems if he is running AutoCAD at school on a Mac?
I would do it. There are widespread reports of AutoCAD running fine with both the BootCamp and the Parallels/VMWare approaches.
Depending on how aggressively you want to chase pricing, there are 17" refurbs at the Apple Store right now for < $2k. Otherwise, same-spec on the two machines comes in within 10% of each other.
It's a safe bet...
we know the pain some people have been suffering
...the Stevester is making sure of that! :)
I should probably have added...there are definitely stability issues with the current release. The thing does have a tendency to crash - some of the apps crash A LOT (eg Safari) - and there are inexplicable slowdowns where some of the default apps (Contacts, Maps) slow to a crawl.
In the two weeks since launch I've had maybe three times when the thing went completely unresponsive - wouldn't even power down or reset with the external button - which caused a bit of a concern because there's no way to remove the battery and force a cold restart. One time I got it back by repeatedly trying to sync, another time it stayed that way until the battery went dead, then revived after a couple attemps at syncing.
Also the touchscreen interface - if you've used a Touch, you may have some adjustments to make, because the screen/UI on the phone is not nearly as responsive as on the Touch.
...would that mean that 13.5% + 34% = 47.5% of all iPhone buyers ever?
No, it means that by the time iPhone 3G v.2 comes out, we're likely to be near 1/2 of all iPhone users, at least in the large markets.
You can't be in an "early adopter" phase when everybody on the planet knows about it and people are lining up for days to get it.
A really really neat touch to Time Machine is that's app-aware. Open your address book, enter Time Machine, and it will give you the way-back on all your contacts.
...patents = exclusivity...
There's a hell of a lot of difference between patenting the idea of a touch screen UI and the idea of using a pinching motion to zoom in and out.
I don't see any reason multitouch shouldn't be subject to patent
Then I guess it's a good thing nobody suggested such a thing.
So it's crystal clear -> Apple did not invent the touch screen, or the idea of a touch based UI.
Is iSynch without MobileMe reliable between the iPhone and a Mac?
Yes! Even to the point of dumping a lot of "sync" material onto an external drive, swapping computers, and having the relevant apps point to the material on the external drives.
There is some kind of strange interaction when you update an App through the phone and then sync back to iTunes, but it just seems confused, doesn't appear to be any damage.
Other than that, it's pretty much perfect.
OK, so I'm giving the MobileMe thing a trial. What a buggy piece of s***e! It syncs things I don't want it to sync, has wrong icons in System Prefs, online directions don't match what I see on the screen, and has completely wiped out my Contacts because it got confused between the computer and the iPhone.
I wouldn't trust this further than I can hock a loogie.
"has patents" is not the same as "has exclusive". Apple owns some implementational aspects of multitouch, but does not own the foundationals. As usual, it will take a trip (or three) through the courts to decide who gets to eat whose slice of cake...
Why is this thing dropping????
I wouldn't call it dropping, I'd calling more like...hanging 'round. "Why" is anybody's guess - mine is that the current range more or less accurately reflects the current growth rate and there does not seem to be any rational for expecting growth to accelerate.
Innovators were the old Treo and Symbian and Danger users.
Early adopters were iPhone Classic users.
Early majority are the iPhone 3G users.
OT: Uh....the last time I heard an argument along those lines it was claiming that human mutation rates (never defining of what, exactly, but never mind) were too high thereby proving evolution doesn't happen because our species isn't devolving at a rapid pace.
If you really must have such discussions, at least get things on an equal footing. Have your discussion mate(s) explain exactly what event or experimental result they would accept as proof that creationism is wrong. If they can't come up with anything, then by definition you aren't talking about science. Which can still be entertaining, in a spinning-in-circles sense.
Egad. I feel a sudden urge to shower...
I didn't look, don't actually know. You can generate a good guess by using the usual Black-Scholes model, or just look for the high price of the day.
no. Offset them with stock in AH last night (can't trade options in AH). Will likely sell the stock tomorrow and tuck the spread into a drawer where they'll probably expire worthless.
That is an incredibly idiotic move. Market leaders - especially near-monopoly market leaders - should never bring attention to their competition like that. It's the exact opposite of "never let them see you sweat".
Who TF is running the show in Redmond these days?!
All I can say is they'd better solve the cut-and-paste problem before releasing such a thing! :)
...I'd like to hear the bear case. I just don't see it on the announced news.
How not? According to the announced news earnings/revs are up approx. 20% year over year. PE was around 40. Even though earnings growth is exemplary for such a large company, it is not enough to justify such a PE.
I don't see a (rational) way 'round it: AAPL is an extremely expensive stock.
Stock down 10+% in AH and only one post...?
AAPL has an extremely high market cap. For the stock to keep going up, pretty much everything has to be better than perfect, for a long time. If you take the PEG standard of 1.0, revs and profits need to be up 40% over last year just to stand still.
The Red Queen is a b***h.
If it goes under $130, I'd just buy some 6-month ATM calls and tuck 'em in a drawer somewhere with a limit sell @ $175.
Long AAPL August bear spread @ 130/125. Yeah it's a bit aggressive - no guts no glory, right?
OT - maybe - my broker tightened margin requirements again this morning. Due to ongoing "turmoil" in "financial markets". Going from memory - I think the last time they did this was right before Bear Stearns went ****-ups.