Looking for my next Forex trade
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Ahhh, you gotta love the market games, Qui. I was just telling Heavy this week that the market really likes getting on your nerves by eeking out movements in the opposite direction to try and get you to close out for a loss...right before they get ready to take it in the direction you wanted it to go the whole time.
Catching exact tops and bottoms is pretty much impossible most of the time. All we can do is get as close as we can on a relative scale and then wait it out.
Based on what I see right now, AU will top out Sunday night or Monday morning on one more test of that upper wedge trendline. After that, shorts should be the play of the day.
Top formations are slow going. But the AU weekly candle now looks like it needs to for a pullback...long wick doji with a very small body at the top end and a smaller wick above that...classic reversal setup. Those or shooting stars are my favorite formations at wave peaks.
Took 167 pips profit on a couple of trades...leaving the rest to run for now.
AU 4 hour chart shows the initial pullback from the trendline but so far, it's not moving hard. The hourly shows it's working on an initial 5 waves down so I'd expect one more move back up with one more brief high to wrap things up. That'll likely happen Sunday so they'll wait till the first of the week to start selling most likely. They did the same thing last time...an initial hit on the trendline, a minor pullback, and another final hit at the trendline before the selling kicked in.
The daily AU TDI chart has satisfied the requirements for a minor Wave 2 retrace so we're good to go there.
4 hour chart...
Price Hook Patterns
I've been watching this for quite some time but for some reason, I'm now starting to tie these things in with TDI wave counts. Still doing some research on it but each time I've found one, it always resulted in a violent move the other direction when the hook tapers off at the bottom. A lot of times, the bottom or top of the hook will also form a "barb" as price breaks away from it briefly before forming a reversal candle.
Just some chart examples here...
About 3 years...LOL! I got faked out a lot.
They used to rattle me with that all the time...then I learned to just look past it and rely on my own tolerance level for risk. After that, things got a lot better.
Think of it as the market nibbling at your nerves, trying to make you budge. Then, when you do, they'll take it in the direction you wanted it to go all along...LOL!
It's all relevant. I only really count percentages at the end of the day. 300 pips at 2% is a lot different than 300 pips at 10% or 20%. All I worry about is the percentages and the pips can go fly a kite...LOL!
A lot of times, they'll keep price at the peaks either high or low until the close of day at 11 PM central. That gives the indicators time to catch up on the larger time frames. After the daily close, it's all up for grabs again at ground zero.
LOL! 300 pips or so is nothing on the daily and weekly charts...just a minor blip.
Even the standard Elliott Wave count says we're wrapping up a 5th wave push in this diagonal so I'm not worried.
ROFL! I may be off a bit on AU but hopefully not that much.
I just look for the big shifts on the trends and start counting there. I'm not always right but it does help to lift the fog a bit.
The reason I have Wave 1 labeled where it is on that chart Heavy is because it represents a strong departure away from the previous TDI trend. A strong departure is typically a Wave 1 or Wave 3. In this case, it's the only obvious count so I stuck a Wave 1 on it. The rest follows afterward.
Ancient Chinese Secret....Sshhhh!
Some weeks don't pan out. Other weeks you'll make considerably more than that, balancing it out. It's never completely consistent on a week to week basis or sometimes even on a month to month basis.
When playing large time frames Qui, additional entries should only be every few hundred pips at most. Adding every 50 pips or so will get you in too deep and margin your account out. The large time frames take a while to get going but once they do, they're worth the wait.
Since most of the AU patterns are coming from the daily and weekly charts, I'd say adding only every 250 to 300 pips would be about right.
Because the wave count is wrapping up a large Wave 2 back down which leads to a large Wave 3 up.
Probably a good idea.
Yes, that last drop finished up a TDI downside wave pattern...basically a false ledge breakout on the downside. It's gonna go back up hard. Minimum I see is 155.50. I'm gonna pass on that one though for now.
Moving a step closer, Heavy. Might consolidate for a while first but it's almost there. Still can't rule out one more quick pop on that expanding 4 hour wedge pattern.
Yeah, I see that. The combination is driving GJ back up again.
I think you're gonna see a massive move up on UJ in a short period of time soon.
UJ is bottoming right in this area more than likely. The charts are prepping for a move back up to 115.50 or so.
One more note here gang. I do expect that this final move down on pairs like AU and EU will be fast and furious...a capitulation type sell off so there may not be much of a bounce at all.
Might be wrong but we'll see...
Added USD/DKK long this morning.
I wonder which one of these they'll blame the market drop on when it happens...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-17/reaction-to-fed-europe-central-bank-decisions-brazil-crisis-what-people-are-talking-about
Not for long, stargate. Reversal is near as the market gets ready to tank.
Heavy, that revised AU weekly chart I just posted shows a 5th wave ending, which matches up nicely with that final 5th wave weekly on AUD/NZD. So I would think AUD/NZD is now setting up for a big drop in sympathy with an AU sell off.
When different charts coordinate that way, it makes me more confident that the count is correct.
Yes indeed. Most of us old timers are settled in with a preferred setup but there are many different ways to skin the Forex cat. Lots of us coordinate with different methods and views and it helps to make the board one big effort to make everyone money.
No Qui...it's not headed there...LOL! This is a final exhaustion push topside just like we've seen over and over again on Wave 2 movements. It's not a big deal. This is why I never recommend over 2% entries. If you stick to that, you can ride out the waves with no problem on these types of movements.
When you're dealing with daily charts, there's lots of room for slack. You just have to be prepared for it is all.
Yep, it's easy to miscount a wave or two on the lower time frames...even the 4 hour, which is where I missed the final 5 count down. But if you have the larger picture in mind, it's not a big deal. Just like the UJ chart today...that final move back up to the highs was needed to set the chart for a massive sell off. AU is no different....just a bigger time frame.